440 replies to this topic

[dude]

Just trade for Montgomery and/or Flaherty if you want them. Don't give away a possibly key piece with upside in Bradish to do it. Give away a couple third tier prospects which is all it should take for a couple months of above average SP. And if it takes a lot more, look elsewhere.

 

ok.  I don't agree with much of that assessment, but ok.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

How are you just giving away 5 team controlled Bradish years. Even if Flaherty and Montgomery give you everything you could ask for its not worth it

[TwentyThirtyFive]

How are you just giving away 5 team controlled Bradish years. Even if Flaherty and Montgomery give you everything you could ask for its not worth it

Id actually read a 1000 word response explaining why we are trading Bradish for this return

[Mackus]

ok. I don't agree with much of that assessment, but ok.

Why do you think either guy would net a player of Bradish's current abilities and potential and, most importantly, control remaining?

Chris Bassitt was traded before last season for JT Ginn and Adam Oller. Ginn was a 21 y/o coming off a A+ season who MLB ranked as Oakland's 12th best prospect after the trade. Oller was 27 y/o who'd never reached the majors. Bassitt is older than Montgomery, but you'd be getting the full year instead of two months. A third tier prospect in our system easily matches this trade for Bassitt.

Flaherty is hard to comp. He's had really good performance, but with amazingly consistent injuries. Only 32 starts the past 3 seasons combined, though he's been healthy this year. Again, just two months with him as a rental, and who knows if you'll actually get that from him. I don't think it'd take one of our top 5-8 guys to get him.

So I'm quite comfortable saying a couple of third tier prospects is a competitive offer to land either guy. Possibly both depending on the prospects or adding a third guy. Should not take you Bradish, who I'd say is more valuable than any prospect we have outside of Holliday and Cowser. Others may also prefer any of Westburg, Ortiz, Kjerstad, Mayo, etc but I'll lean towards the promising SP who has graduated the minors already and still has ample control.

[dude]

Sorry, I didn't know you and Wile E. actually wanted to discuss this.

[Mackus]

Sorry, I didn't know you and Wile E. actually wanted to discuss this.

I'm more interested in why you so often include these poison pills that distract us from discussing the good idea at the core.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Poison pill is being nice.


Btw Stl isnt close to giving up on their season. Not in that division. But Ill allow discussions of their players in case they do decide to sell in a month

[Mackus]

Ah, yeah I've totally missed the portion of this that's about convincing teams to make deals today. Fair to think about how much of a premium you'd have to pay on top of typical deadline packages to get a team to make a move in early June versus late July, especially a team who's not yet certain to be packing it in for the year. I'm more focused on deadline deals and typically speak from that viewpoint. Still don't think it'd take Bradish in either case, and wouldn't give up Bradish to be one net SP positive the rest of the way and then have nothing after the year.

[dude]

For everything....I'm not trying to doggedly hold onto something. It's just discussing opportunities and I try (fwiw, which is nothing) to play the other side and what they want.  I play the other 29 teams all the time, every team has an approach and they aren't all the same.

 

It's a little difficult to explain details without words.  Maybe I'll do a video so Wile E. can just listen and not stress so bad on the number of words.

 

I like Bradish and I've said many times he deserves an opportunity to start.  I'm not sending him to the bullpen or AAA (barring some utter disaster).  I feel the same way about Kremer.  I'd have rather had Wells in the bullpen this year, but Tyler is staying in the rotation.  Conditions change so the plans change. Personally, I don't see either Bradish or Kremer starting for the Orioles next year.  That's nothing against them, I just would want different options.  I view both of them as league average+ guys and that's good.

 

So if you think Bradish is a necessity for the future, I don't.

 

Interestingly, the Cards could be one-stop shopping if we wanted.  They have a NOW team that's playing like crap.  They really don't need a bunch of prospects because they are already largely covered.  You trade for things that help and they have 4 guys that are FAs.  Flaherty, Montgomery, HIcks (RP) and Dejong (option which a doubt they pick up).  

 

There's a bunch of ways to work with them. I'm not a 'trade Mateo' guy, but Dejong has bounced back a little and would be an opportunity to push him to another situation and get out of some money they were expecting to eat 4 months ago.  Likewise, Hicks has been all over the map, actually struggled the first couple weeks (gave up 8 ER through 15 APR) but only 3 in one outing since.  You don't get enough innings to really change those numbers, but move him now if someone wants?

 

...but let's stick to JF and Montgomery.  Like I already said, I'd probably give Irwin some leash to see if he's ok, but the Oiroles need to get more length out of their starters.  Flaherty may be more of a box of chocolates, but we know there's some really good chocolates in there.  He's walking way too many guys, but has an ERA around 3.00 outside of his one awful start (10ER).  He's a guy that many thought would be a #1 type guy.  JF is only a year older than Bradish.  If Flaherty got hot over the next 6 weeks (really just avoid the disaster game), he could be better than Giolito in terms of trade opportunity....but today you have to buy high on Giolito and you get to buy well lower on Flaherty.  If he's healthy, I think there's a ton of performance upside there.  Do we want to buy high or low? HIs statcast #s are heading in the right direction and well better than Bradish.

 

If Irvin isn't cutting it, would I leverage Bradish years to get Flaherty's now upside and Montgomeryy's now stability for this rotation today/soon.  Yes.

 

You think you need more, great, get more, but if this rotation needs more innings to stabilize the bullpen and improve competitive opportunity, I do it when it doesn't cost me something I'm probably even using next year.

 

Given the Cards roster and needs, it's not even a give up type move, they just trade Flaherty's last partial season for a guy that slots in the back of their rotation the next couple of years.  They have other places they are spending money.

 

Lets see if Wile E can figure out the number of words. 625

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Its stupid. Beyond stupid to even mention Bradish in a deal for these two. Sure, Bradish doesnt have to be penciled into the '24 rotation. I have no problem with a thought excercise that has him out of the '24 rotation. What isnt acceptable is trading him for something that isnt going to help the '24 team. Or expected to help the '24 team. If he was part of a deal for a Burnes or Cease or anyone else that is team controlled for '24 I could see it. To trade him for 3 months of two guys that might not be better than him is insane. Its literally insane. Its why you shouldnt even be allowed to be the Os GM on your OOTP 24 sim. I would be mad seeing the OOTP version of the '23 Os making this trade.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The above post does have me pondering 1 hypothetical. Would you trade Bradish in a deal for 2 months of Ohtani. I think most people are gonna say yes. I gotta think about it. As Mack said above, and I agree, Bradish is more valuable than these prospects we have that arent named Holliday and maybe Cowser. Bradish is proving at this level he is a ML caliber player. Exactly how good and what role I dont know but guys like Mayo, Westburg, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Norby they still have to prove they are ML caliber. So are you trading what youre confident is a ML caliber arm the next 5 years team controlled in a deal for Ohtani. Its not an easy yes for me. I would rather include something else in his place. Especially considering the farm is heavier on position player prospects vs pitching prospects. Another reason dudes trade is stupid. Trade from a position of organizational strength.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I wouldn't.

[Mackus]

The above post does have me pondering 1 hypothetical. Would you trade Bradish in a deal for 2 months of Ohtani. I think most people are gonna say yes. I gotta think about it. As Mack said above, and I agree, Bradish is more valuable than these prospects we have that arent named Holliday and maybe Cowser. Bradish is proving at this level he is a ML caliber player. Exactly how good and what role I dont know but guys like Mayo, Westburg, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Norby they still have to prove they are ML caliber. So are you trading what youre confident is a ML caliber arm the next 5 years team controlled in a deal for Ohtani. Its not an easy yes for me. I would rather include something else in his place. Especially considering the farm is heavier on position player prospects vs pitching prospects. Another reason dudes trade is stupid. Trade from a position of organizational strength.

 

I'd include Bradish for Ohtani, but only if we're also making other moves to strengthen the roster towards a legit WS contender.  Ohtani covers most of that gap, but I'd still wanna pursue a couple other smaller moves to really be making the type of effort that justifies the cost.

[Mackus]

You think you need more, great, get more, but if this rotation needs more innings to stabilize the bullpen and improve competitive opportunity, I do it when it doesn't cost me something I'm probably even using next year.

 

I don't need to get more, I need to give up less and especially I need to change the format of what I'm giving away.

 

This trade is really Bradish's next 5 seasons for a few months of one solid to good SP.  Because Bradish's rest-of-season and the rest-of-season from whichever of these two guys you like less are basically a wash.  That's a bad exchange, IMO.  You can get that sort of thing for way less than Bradish's 2nd-6th years of control.  Westburg and Haskin, for example, is a very strong package that should easily be able to win a bidding war for a good SP rental similar to Montgomery, and probably be competitive for a solid SP that's not just a rental.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Its insane to not trade Bradish for 2 months of Ohtani IMHO. Of course it also depends on what other pieces had to toss in but I can't see how you could say no to that. It instantly fixes our 2 most pressing problems. Yeah ok its just for 2 months but those 2 months with Ohtani just might make the team a legit WS contender.

[Mike B]

For everything....I'm not trying to doggedly hold onto something. It's just discussing opportunities and I try (fwiw, which is nothing) to play the other side and what they want.  I play the other 29 teams all the time, every team has an approach and they aren't all the same.

 

It's a little difficult to explain details without words.  Maybe I'll do a video so Wile E. can just listen and not stress so bad on the number of words.

 

I like Bradish and I've said many times he deserves an opportunity to start.  I'm not sending him to the bullpen or AAA (barring some utter disaster).  I feel the same way about Kremer.  I'd have rather had Wells in the bullpen this year, but Tyler is staying in the rotation.  Conditions change so the plans change. Personally, I don't see either Bradish or Kremer starting for the Orioles next year.  That's nothing against them, I just would want different options.  I view both of them as league average+ guys and that's good.

 

So if you think Bradish is a necessity for the future, I don't.

 

Interestingly, the Cards could be one-stop shopping if we wanted.  They have a NOW team that's playing like crap.  They really don't need a bunch of prospects because they are already largely covered.  You trade for things that help and they have 4 guys that are FAs.  Flaherty, Montgomery, HIcks (RP) and Dejong (option which a doubt they pick up).  

 

There's a bunch of ways to work with them. I'm not a 'trade Mateo' guy, but Dejong has bounced back a little and would be an opportunity to push him to another situation and get out of some money they were expecting to eat 4 months ago.  Likewise, Hicks has been all over the map, actually struggled the first couple weeks (gave up 8 ER through 15 APR) but only 3 in one outing since.  You don't get enough innings to really change those numbers, but move him now if someone wants?

 

...but let's stick to JF and Montgomery.  Like I already said, I'd probably give Irwin some leash to see if he's ok, but the Oiroles need to get more length out of their starters.  Flaherty may be more of a box of chocolates, but we know there's some really good chocolates in there.  He's walking way too many guys, but has an ERA around 3.00 outside of his one awful start (10ER).  He's a guy that many thought would be a #1 type guy.  JF is only a year older than Bradish.  If Flaherty got hot over the next 6 weeks (really just avoid the disaster game), he could be better than Giolito in terms of trade opportunity....but today you have to buy high on Giolito and you get to buy well lower on Flaherty.  If he's healthy, I think there's a ton of performance upside there.  Do we want to buy high or low? HIs statcast #s are heading in the right direction and well better than Bradish.

 

If Irvin isn't cutting it, would I leverage Bradish years to get Flaherty's now upside and Montgomeryy's now stability for this rotation today/soon.  Yes.

 

You think you need more, great, get more, but if this rotation needs more innings to stabilize the bullpen and improve competitive opportunity, I do it when it doesn't cost me something I'm probably even using next year.

 

Given the Cards roster and needs, it's not even a give up type move, they just trade Flaherty's last partial season for a guy that slots in the back of their rotation the next couple of years.  They have other places they are spending money.

 

Lets see if Wile E can figure out the number of words. 625

I might ride with Bradish, rather than give him up for Flaherty or Montgomery.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Its insane to not trade Bradish for 2 months of Ohtani IMHO. Of course it also depends on what other pieces had to toss in but I can't see how you could say no to that. It instantly fixes our 2 most pressing problems. Yeah ok its just for 2 months but those 2 months with Ohtani just might make the team a legit WS contender.

I get the temptation, but it's an easy no for me. 

Zero chance of resigning Ohtani.

Might be a WS contender without him.

 

While better with Ohtani, playoffs are just a roll of the dice.
One player just doesn't matter all that much. 

 

Pitching hard to find, and expensive.
Bradish's team control is huge.
Bradish is a useful SP as is, with enough talent to have a legitimate chance to become a front-end starter. 

 

Trying to having an extended window of contention. 
You don't get that by giving up extended control for rentals imo.

 

 

 

If you were going to trade high end controlled talent.... try and target pieces that can help you not just the rest of '23, but into '24 imo.

[jamesdean]

Bradish is nothing to get excited about but Ohtani will never sign here long term and what's he done for LA's success anyway?  Not much. The Orioles need long term solutions to the starting rotation. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Bradish is nothing to get excited about 

A lot of Oriole fans incorrectly said that about Arrieta and Gausman too, and his arm talent is similar. 

I don't know if he will put it all together, but the ability is there.

[BaltBird 24]

Bradish is probably 2nd or 3rd best SP behind Wells/Gibson. Definitely has the best "stuff" of any of them.

It's crazy to me that someone wouldn't see Bradish as a pretty key part of our 2024 rotation and onward.