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Record Predictions


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#101 Mackus

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Posted 20 September 2023 - 08:10 PM

With all due respect. All that literally proves nothing. You would have to do a deep dive into the detail of each of those teams final month. Wins and losses don't tell a complete story. The reality is if you get in, regardless of how you get in anything can happen. I'm sure if i did the research I could find teams that didn't play all that well the final month and still did well in the playoffs.

The research you're mentioning has been done. There is a very slight correlation between September record and postseason record. But a 2-3X larger, though still not hugely significant, correlation between overall record and postseason record.

So you're right. What you do in September doesn't really influence how you'll play in October. Your overall talent level is more indicative. You'd rather be a 95-win team coming off a 12-15 September than a 92-wim team coming off a 15-12 October.

I'll take being a 100-62 team coming off of a 17-12 September :)
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#102 85Knight

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 11:25 AM

This is the exact kind of slump I don't want my team to be in heading into the playoffs.

#103 makoman

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 11:27 AM

This is the exact kind of slump I don't want my team to be in heading into the playoffs.

10 days ago we had just scored double digit runs in 4 of 5 games. Who knows where we'll be 10 days from now.


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#104 85Knight

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 11:34 AM

10 days ago we had just scored double digit runs in 4 of 5 games. Who knows where we'll be 10 days from now.


I hope so. Nine games left to turn it around. I'd rather not have a faulty offense and bullpen heading into the playoffs.

#105 Mackus

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 11:47 AM

This is the exact kind of slump I don't want my team to be in heading into the playoffs.

They've had two bad offensive games. 30 runs in the 4 games prior is excellent. 6 runs in 4 games prior is terrible. 48 runs in 5 games prior is unbeatable. 24 in 4 games prior is great.

I have less fear that we'll get shut down tonight than I do excitement that we'll put up 6 or more.

#106 85Knight

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 11:49 AM

The research you're mentioning has been done. There is a very slight correlation between September record and postseason record. But a 2-3X larger, though still not hugely significant, correlation between overall record and postseason record.

So you're right. What you do in September doesn't really influence how you'll play in October. Your overall talent level is more indicative. You'd rather be a 95-win team coming off a 12-15 September than a 92-wim team coming off a 15-12 October.

I'll take being a 100-62 team coming off of a 17-12 September :)


Since 2016, 16 World Series teams:

13 had winning Septembers, an avg. of 8 games over .500

3 had losing Septembers.

Why would you want to be in the 2nd group. I don't get it.

#107 makoman

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 11:50 AM



Why would you want to be in the 2nd group. I don't get it.

No one has ever said that.



#108 85Knight

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 11:56 AM

No one has ever said that.


Yes he did. Read his post.

#109 Mackus

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 12:06 PM

Since 2016, 16 World Series teams:

13 had winning Septembers, an avg. of 8 games over .500

3 had losing Septembers.

Why would you want to be in the 2nd group. I don't get it.

 

Because the 2nd group (95-win team with 12-15 September) has higher odds of success in the postseason than the first group (92-win team with 15-12 September).  That profile is more highly correlated to winning in the postseason than the other.

 

What you're saying about September record isn't statistics.  Its recent historical anecdotes.  

 

There is a higher correlation between FULL SEASON winning percentage and POSTSEASON winning percentage than there is between SEPTEMBER winning percentage and POSTSEASON winning percentage.

 

Meaning, how you do in September matters to your October prospects only in as much as what portion of September performance is included in your overall performance.  You'd rather by a 95-win team who played a mediocre September than a 92-win team with a good September.  That's all caveated with the fact that the correlations are really quite modest even in the full season case (while nearly zero in the September case).  

 

I'm no longer going to spend time trying to explain this.  I feel like I've done it clearly and politely, but it hasn't stuck for whatever reason.  I hope the Orioles win all their games.


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#110 makoman

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 12:06 PM

Yes he did. Read his post.

The whole time this argument has been going on I've understood him as saying: characteristic A is more important than characteristic B. Not that we would prefer to be bad at characteristic B. 

 

No one wants to go into the postseason cold or thinks it improves the chances somehow. It just doesn't correlate as much as being a good team over the entire year, as far as I understand the research like what he linked to fangraphs earlier (which I assume is more than just 6 years or data that you keep pointing out).



#111 85Knight

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 12:14 PM

They've had two bad offensive games. 30 runs in the 4 games prior is excellent. 6 runs in 4 games prior is terrible. 48 runs in 5 games prior is unbeatable. 24 in 4 games prior is great.

I have less fear that we'll get shut down tonight than I do excitement that we'll put up 6 or more.


I wish I felt the same way. The lows are really concerning for me. I wish our lows didn't come in bunches like they do. Let's just get on a roll these 9 games and not be concerned about a prolonged offensive slump. There's still time.

#112 85Knight

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 12:16 PM

The whole time this argument has been going on I've understood him as saying: characteristic A is more important than characteristic B. Not that we would prefer to be bad at characteristic B.

No one wants to go into the postseason cold or thinks it improves the chances somehow. It just doesn't correlate as much as being a good team over the entire year, as far as I understand the research like what he linked to fangraphs earlier (which I assume is more than just 6 years or data that you keep pointing out).



We can argue sample size but I think we can all agree that in any sport you'd rather be hot heading into the playoffs rather than cold. That's all this argument was ever about.

Of course there are exceptions but why tempt fate?

#113 85Knight

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 12:22 PM

Because the 2nd group (95-win team with 12-15 September) has higher odds of success in the postseason than the first group (92-win team with 15-12 September). That profile is more highly correlated to winning in the postseason than the other.

What you're saying about September record isn't statistics. Its recent historical anecdotes.

There is a higher correlation between FULL SEASON winning percentage and POSTSEASON winning percentage than there is between SEPTEMBER winning percentage and POSTSEASON winning percentage.

Meaning, how you do in September matters to your October prospects only in as much as what portion of September performance is included in your overall performance. You'd rather by a 95-win team who played a mediocre September than a 92-win team with a good September. That's all caveated with the fact that the correlations are really quite modest even in the full season case (while nearly zero in the September case).

I'm no longer going to spend time trying to explain this. I feel like I've done it clearly and politely, but it hasn't stuck for whatever reason. I hope the Orioles win all their games.


I get the point you're trying to make but you're comparing Team A to Team B.

The point I'm making is a hot Team A vs. a cold Team A.

Same team just different levels of play heading into the playoffs. Those are 2 different arguments.

#114 bmore_ken

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Posted 22 September 2023 - 12:24 PM

10 days ago we had just scored double digit runs in 4 of 5 games. Who knows where we'll be 10 days from now.

Exactly. This is far from the end of the world.  I'm just enjoying that there's some playoff baseball happening in this town. 



#115 RShack

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Posted 27 September 2023 - 04:29 PM

I wish I felt the same way. The lows are really concerning for me. I wish our lows didn't come in bunches like they do. Let's just get on a roll these 9 games and not be concerned about a prolonged offensive slump. There's still time.

 

I can tell you're worried about this.  I don't really know you, but I imagine that you worry a lot during the 7th and 8th inning.  Am I right?    :wink:

 

I know playoff baseball is different than when it was just the WS (and the word "postseason" didn't even exist yet), so this might not be of any real use, but the '66 Orioles were a team of more-than-several kids.  Half the starting lineup were 22 or 23, either rookies or sophomores.  They finished the season going 6-8 and "settled" for 97 W's. 

 

In response to this situation there was a whole lot of "They won the pennant, they've accomplished their goal, and now they've taken their foot off the gas! Their 3 kid starters are going up against the mythical duo of Koufax and Drysdale, and the team is going flat!  Just pray they don't fall on their face!"  You know what happened next... 


 "The only change is that baseball has turned Paige from a second-class citizen to a second-class immortal." - Satchel Paige


#116 makoman

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Posted 27 September 2023 - 04:34 PM

They've clinched a winning September, so I guess all the worrying was for nothing.



#117 85Knight

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Posted 27 September 2023 - 05:06 PM

I can tell you're worried about this. I don't really know you, but I imagine that you worry a lot during the 7th and 8th inning. Am I right? :wink:

I know playoff baseball is different than when it was just the WS (and the word "postseason" didn't even exist yet), so this might not be of any real use, but the '66 Orioles were a team of more-than-several kids. Half the starting lineup were 22 or 23, either rookies or sophomores. They finished the season going 6-8 and "settled" for 97 W's.

In response to this situation there was a whole lot of "They won the pennant, they've accomplished their goal, and now they've taken their foot off the gas! Their 3 kid starters are going up against the mythical duo of Koufax and Drysdale, and the team is going flat! Just pray they don't fall on their face!" You know what happened next...



You're right. You're new here and don't know me too well. Reread that post from a week ago and the context that it was written and then get back to me and if need be I'll explain it to you.

#118 RShack

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Posted 27 September 2023 - 06:23 PM

You're right. You're new here and don't know me too well. Reread that post from a week ago and the context that it was written and then get back to me and if need be I'll explain it to you.

 

I was just joshin' wit ya... sorry if I offended...


 "The only change is that baseball has turned Paige from a second-class citizen to a second-class immortal." - Satchel Paige


#119 85Knight

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Posted 27 September 2023 - 07:00 PM

I was just joshin' wit ya... sorry if I offended...


Not at all. We're good.




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