118 replies to this topic

[Mike B]

The thing we have to keep in mind though is that we are playing .628 ball with 25 games left. We don't want to head into the playoffs on a downward spiral. We are on pace to win 102 games right now. Only winning 95 would mean that things have not gone well in the final days leading into the playoffs. Anything less than 100 wins, 14-11, would not look good heading into the playoffs. 100 wins might look lofty but 14-11 doesn't.

Not trying to be confrontational, but if we get the division and the first round bye, what does it matter.  Baseball is a game of good and bad streaks.  Every team has them.  The media and fans love to talk about the good and the bad, but the standings are all that matters.

 

Earl Weaver used to say, every team is going to win 54, every team is going to lose 54, it is what you do in the other 54 that matters.  The Orioles are going to do real well in that third group.

[BSLRoseKatz]

The Phillies were 11-14 in September and 3-3 in October entering the postseason last year, no one's gonna complain if they end the season hot but trudging along to the finish line isn't necessarily a real red flag I think

[85Knight]

The Phillies were 11-14 in September and 3-3 in October entering the postseason last year, no one's gonna complain if they end the season hot but trudging along to the finish line isn't necessarily a real red flag I think

It isn't but what if we're blowing a bunch of games in the 9th because Bautista is out or we suffer another injury or two that cause us not to play well? I'm hoping we're clicking on all cylinders like we have all season and not heading into the playoffs with our first losing month of the season.

[CantonJester]

86-76. Last WC.

 

And I was one of the more optimistic prognosticators in this thread. 

[jamesdean]

Not trying to be confrontational, but if we get the division and the first round bye, what does it matter.  Baseball is a game of good and bad streaks.  Every team has them.  The media and fans love to talk about the good and the bad, but the standings are all that matters.

 

Earl Weaver used to say, every team is going to win 54, every team is going to lose 54, it is what you do in the other 54 that matters.  The Orioles are going to do real well in that third group.

What's amazing is the 69-70 Orioles won all of those other 54 games.  

[makoman]

What's amazing is the 69-70 Orioles won all of those other 54 games.

The 2018-21 O’s were also amazing in a related way.

[Mike B]

The 2018-21 O’s were also amazing in a related way.

Did the Orioles play baseball in those years?

[BaltBird 24]

Did the Orioles play baseball in those years?

Unfortunately for us, yes.

[makoman]

Did the Orioles play baseball in those years?

I don’t want to say anything more, might blow my shot at a sweet MASN gig one day.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Did the Orioles play baseball in those years?

yes hence the young core we have today......ok Dude flame away....lol

[bmore_ken]

Not trying to be confrontational, but if we get the division and the first round bye, what does it matter. Baseball is a game of good and bad streaks. Every team has them. The media and fans love to talk about the good and the bad, but the standings are all that matters.

Pretty much where I'm at on the topic.

[85Knight]

Pretty much where I'm at on the topic.

This is why it matters.

This is admittedly a snapshot in time, and sometimes we can overrate how well a team is playing in the moment and miss the big picture. For the most part, however, teams that reach the World Series do play well the final month -- although, not always. Since 2016, three of the 16 World Series participants had a losing record the final month (the 2022 Phillies were 14-17, the 2017 Dodgers were 13-17 and the 2015 Royals were 15-17). The other 13 teams were an average of eight games over .500 the final month.

https://www.espn.com...23-world-series

[Mackus]

This is why it matters.

This is admittedly a snapshot in time, and sometimes we can overrate how well a team is playing in the moment and miss the big picture. For the most part, however, teams that reach the World Series do play well the final month -- although, not always. Since 2016, three of the 16 World Series participants had a losing record the final month (the 2022 Phillies were 14-17, the 2017 Dodgers were 13-17 and the 2015 Royals were 15-17). The other 13 teams were an average of eight games over .500 the final month.

https://www.espn.com...23-world-series

Again, World Series teams probably have similar results of you're counting months over .500 in August and June and April. This isn't meaningful to me at a glance and is somewhat in opposition, or at least tangential, to what I know about full season record versus September record having the bigger correlation to postseason success.

I only care about winning the division. Would prefer to do it strongly so that the team's overall season is stronger and for personal stress-related reasons. But I'd rather limp to a division title than have a great September record but somehow get caught by the even hotter Rays.

[85Knight]

Again, World Series teams probably have similar results of you're counting months over .500 in August and June and April. This isn't meaningful to me at a glance and is somewhat in opposition, or at least tangential, to what I know about full season record versus September record having the bigger correlation to postseason success.

I only care about winning the division. Would prefer to do it strongly so that the team's overall season is stronger and for personal stress-related reasons. But I'd rather limp to a division title than have a great September record but somehow get caught by the even hotter Rays.

The discussion was whether it matters or not to be winning going into the playoffs.

[Mackus]

The discussion was whether it matters or not to be winning going into the playoffs.

Right, I'm saying that's misdirection. The cause is good team, the symptom is good September.

[makoman]

Right, I'm saying that's misdirection. The cause is good team, the symptom is good September.

Correlation, something something.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I sprinkled a bit on them winning the division. Im not backing down now.

94- 68

Exceeded the most optimistic of predictions. Thankfully. 94 isnt gonna be enough for the division.

[DuffMan]

Not trying to be confrontational, but if we get the division and the first round bye, what does it matter.  Baseball is a game of good and bad streaks.  Every team has them.  The media and fans love to talk about the good and the bad, but the standings are all that matters.

 

Earl Weaver used to say, every team is going to win 54, every team is going to lose 54, it is what you do in the other 54 that matters.  The Orioles are going to do real well in that third group.

Apparently the 2018 and 2021 Orioles missed that memo!

[bmore_ken]

This is why it matters.

This is admittedly a snapshot in time, and sometimes we can overrate how well a team is playing in the moment and miss the big picture. For the most part, however, teams that reach the World Series do play well the final month -- although, not always. Since 2016, three of the 16 World Series participants had a losing record the final month (the 2022 Phillies were 14-17, the 2017 Dodgers were 13-17 and the 2015 Royals were 15-17). The other 13 teams were an average of eight games over .500 the final month.

https://www.espn.com...23-world-series

With all due respect. All that literally proves nothing. You would have to do a deep dive into the detail of each of those teams final month. Wins and losses don't tell a complete story. The reality is if you get in, regardless of how you get in anything can happen. I'm sure if i did the research I could find teams that didn't play all that well the final month and still did well in the playoffs. 

[85Knight]

With all due respect. All that literally proves nothing. You would have to do a deep dive into the detail of each of those teams final month. Wins and losses don't tell a complete story. The reality is if you get in, regardless of how you get in anything can happen. I'm sure if i did the research I could find teams that didn't play all that well the final month and still did well in the playoffs.

We beat this subject to death. We basically agreed that we'd rather go into the playoffs hot vs. cold.