53 replies to this topic

[bmore_ken]

How would Rodriguez spending the April in Baltimore vs Norfolk change opinions of the offseason in any way?

It would mean at least one solid starter in the rotation since they didn't actually sign one.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I don't understand what's hard about telling Wells... this year we are moving you back to the bullpen at-least to start. 
Now your performance, and what happens in-front of you (performance, health) might lead to another opportunity to start... but the pen is your home to begin the year.  Here's your check. 

[Mackus]

Sure they match. 

He's got x amount of innings in his arm this year. 

I'd like all of those innings in the Majors vs. a portion of them in the Minors.  

The way to make sure he gets each of his innings in the Majors is to occasionally skip starts... and you've certainly got guys that can fill in where necessary.

 

I'm assuming that they'd be having him do little piddling starts 6-7 days separated when down in the minors.  Its not a zero for innings and no impact towards his restrictions, but I also think it'd be well less than a 1-to-1 mapping of innigns in Norfolk equaling innings in Baltimore towards whatever limititations you're gonna put on him.  Not all innings are the same.

 

I guess that applies a bit more for a midseason demotion than it does for starting him at Norfok, as you'd still need him built up enough to be able to go 5 innings / 90+ pitches once he shows up in Baltimore.  

[Mackus]

It would mean at least one solid starter in the rotation since they didn't actually sign one.

 

I still don't see how that impacts any opinions of their offseason. 

[dude]

I don't understand what's hard about telling Wells... this year we are moving you back to the bullpen at-least to start. 
Now your performance, and what happens in-front of you (performance, health) might lead to another opportunity to start... but the pen is your home to begin the year.  Here's your check. 

 

Tyler Wells is ARB1 next year. You say "just hand him his paycheck", but the difference between him with 70 RP innings and 175 SP innings is probably 2.5M.  It's not the check, it's the number on the check.

 

When you make him a starter (and he's successful) then you create an expectation.  You may not care, but I guarantee Tyler, his agent and his family care.  I'm confident he's grateful for the opportunity and development he's had in Baltimore and I 100% believe he'll say the right things, but today he wants to be a 30-start workhorse and likely feels he deserves that opportunity.

 

I'd contend that the MiL approach of positional flexibility is (among other things) intentionally designed to create the perspective of path to the Majors.  You want that kind of motivation/energy in your development.  If you are only a SS and there's a SS in front of you that will play for the next 6+ years, where are you going to play?  You want to get traded to create your opportunity, or move to another position, or whatever.

 

Every player has a hierarchy of needs and you want the next step.  when you get that one, you want the next one.  That's not just Baseball, that's everyone, everywhere.

[Mackus]

Tyler Wells is ARB1 next year. You say "just hand him his paycheck", but the difference between him with 70 RP innings and 175 SP innings is probably 2.5M.  It's not the check, it's the number on the check.

 

When you make him a starter (and he's successful) then you create an expectation.  You may not care, but I guarantee Tyler, his agent and his family care.  I'm confident he's grateful for the opportunity and development he's had in Baltimore and I 100% believe he'll say the right things, but today he wants to be a 30-start workhorse and likely feels he deserves that opportunity.

 

I'd contend that the MiL approach of positional flexibility is (among other things) intentionally designed to create the perspective of path to the Majors.  You want that kind of motivation/energy in your development.  If you are only a SS and there's a SS in front of you that will play for the next 6+ years, where are you going to play?  You want to get traded to create your opportunity, or move to another position, or whatever.

 

Every player has a hierarchy of needs and you want the next step.  when you get that one, you want the next one.  That's not just Baseball, that's everyone, everywhere.

 

So you've said that you don't want any free agents who only wants to come to Baltimore if they offered the most money.  Being a mercenary is bad.  You want guys that buy in for non-monetary reasons.

 

But you do like Tyler Wells, as we all do.  But you are hypothesizing he will sulk if he doesn't have the role he wants because that role will cost him money.  How is that not the same thing you are cautioning against elsewhere?  And if you give the role to Tyler Wells full time so he doesn't sulk, now someone else is sulking, right, because there are fewer opportunities for other guys?  

[BSLChrisStoner]

So you've said that you don't want any free agents who only wants to come to Baltimore if they offered the most money.  Being a mercenary is bad.  You want guys that buy in for non-monetary reasons.

 

But you do like Tyler Wells, as we all do.  But you are hypothesizing he will sulk if he doesn't have the role he wants because that role will cost him money.  How is that not the same thing you are cautioning against elsewhere?  And if you give the role to Tyler Wells full time so he doesn't sulk, now someone else is sulking, right, because there are fewer opportunities for other guys?  

His solution to that is to have less guys.  Depth is a problem. 

[dude]

How is that not the same thing you are cautioning against elsewhere?  And if you give the role to Tyler Wells full time so he doesn't sulk, now someone else is sulking, right, because there are fewer opportunities for other guys?  

 

I think it's the same thing.  I fully acknowledge that I am using a broad brush in the absence of personal information.  Tyler Wells could certainly be different....but Tyler Wells was a 16th round pick and he hasn't logged any real money yet (in MLB terms).  The next 3 years will determine his generational financial stability and while many like to pretend that 25M makes any kind of non-ego difference to players when you are making 200+M, the difference between him making 3.5M vs 1.5M in 2023 is a huge, real difference.  Everyone is a torn achilleas or a UCL away from being done.

 

My answer is the same I've always provided.  Have a short term and long term plan (it will change as you go along) nad continue to role players through the MiL system to the upper levels.  When they get to the point that need specific opportunity, I am not hoarding them at AAA for depth (or whatever), I want to have the relationships across MLB to make reasonable deals.  I'd always be thinning the upper levels as you build layers.  There is no start point, it's always a churn.  Make decisions.  Get more players.  Be dynamic to adjust.

[makoman]

Tyler Wells had a better than expected year last year, but 23 starts at a 94 ERA+ doesn't get your name written in the rotation in pen. I think by the time players get to MLB they should know they are constantly competing for their place. All of these guys should be given "excel in your role and you will continue to get opportunities," however that shakes out. That counts for Bradish too, even though he has more upside. I think Kremer last year earned pretty close to being written in pen, absent a spring meltdown. Anyway, if that makes a guy sulk then maybe he isn't the guy you want.

[dude]

His solution to that is to have less guys.  Depth is a problem. 

 

I wrote the second paragraph above that answers this, but I get why you want to think this.

 

There is never a depth issue.  You want depth to look a certain way, but the depth isn't always prospects.  There's many ways to build depth and your start point doesn't limit your depth.  Every team has the same number of players. There are more players trying to stay in the game than opportunities to play.

[dude]

Tyler Wells had a better than expected year last year, but 23 starts at a 94 ERA+ doesn't get your name written in the rotation in pen. I think by the time players get to MLB they should know they are constantly competing for their place. All of these guys should be given "excel in your role and you will continue to get opportunities," however that shakes out. That counts for Bradish too, even though he has more upside. I think Kremer last year earned pretty close to being written in pen, absent a spring meltdown. Anyway, if that makes a guy sulk then maybe he isn't the guy you want.

 

People keep using the word "sulk".  I (again) am confident that we will never see anything publicly.  Any of them will say the things they need to say. 

 

I'm confident not a single person here would be ok with what they are describing if it was happening to them in thier job.  Build a parallel to your job and then, from a dollars perspective, multiply it by an order of magnitude or 2.  You would not be ok being sent back to the mailroom when you just finished running an engineering project.  Still have a job.  Still have a 'check'.

 

The 2018 season wasn't some terrible team.  It was things falling apart and everyone starts looking to something else and not the team result.

[BSLChrisStoner]

People keep using the word "sulk".  I (again) am confident that we will never see anything publicly.  Any of them will say the things they need to say. 

 

I'm confident not a single person here would be ok with what they are describing if it was happening to them in thier job.  Build a parallel to your job and then, from a dollars perspective, multiply it by an order of magnitude or 2.  You would not be ok being sent back to the mailroom when you just finished running an engineering project.  Still have a job.  Still have a 'check'.

 

That's called life, and competition.   Don't have to like it, just how it is. 

[makoman]

People keep using the word "sulk".  I (again) am confident that we will never see anything publicly.  Any of them will say the things they need to say. 

 

I'm confident not a single person here would be ok with what they are describing if it was happening to them in thier job.  Build a parallel to your job and then, from a dollars perspective, multiply it by an order of magnitude or 2.  You would not be ok being sent back to the mailroom when you just finished running an engineering project.  Still have a job.  Still have a 'check'.

 

The 2018 season wasn't some terrible team.  It was things falling apart and everyone starts looking to something else and not the team result.

Of course any of us would be annoyed. But I'd also probably remember that I spent over a month on sick leave and then wasn't quite the same when I came back, so yeah they had to bring someone else in to make sure the job got done. Now there's 7 guys for 5 jobs and I have to earn it again. Like Chris said, that's life.

[dude]

That's called life, and competition.   Don't have to like it, just how it is. 

 

You seem to think Team performance is some static accumulation of fWAR.  Otherwise, you wouldn't say what you just did.

 

We're talking about how you get the most out of the roster, not whether you are allowed to do [whatever] to your roster.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Do they really want to be pulling him if/when he goes scoreless through 4 and dealing? It would at least be another sign that winning is not the most important thing (and sure isn’t the only thing). Not to mention the unnecessary extra workload it puts on the BP.

[dude]

Of course any of us would be annoyed. But I'd also probably remember that I spent over a month on sick leave and then wasn't quite the same when I came back, so yeah they had to bring someone else in to make sure the job got done. Now there's 7 guys for 5 jobs and I have to earn it again. Like Chris said, that's life.

 

...but that's not really what we're talking about.  Your minor league pay is a fraction of your 40-man minimum.  If you have an option, you get sent down.  When Kremer sucked, he's getting sent down, because you don't get to non-perform and keep your job...but we're talking about a guy who performed well over 21 starts (3.23 ERA) and I think most people believe he's part of the rotation.  Gibson, Irvin, Wells and Bradish all think the same way.

 

wrt to your job/example, the difference is you can take your Talent and go get another/better job.  If you don't like the conditions [whatever] you come back to, then go make yourself valuable to someone else. 

 

Tyler Wells would love to go start for another team if the Orioles want to put him in the bullpen, but he can't.

[Mackus]

Do they really want to be pulling him if/when he goes scoreless through 4 and dealing?

 

Yes, they will, and will be fine with it.  And that's true no matter when he comes onto the roster, if its all year or not til July.  He'll have limits every start, whether that's IP or total pitches or pitches in an inning (this is harder to stick to in MLB), they will definitely keep him within whatever fencing they decide is prudent.  You can stretch the limits as need and situations arise, but they won't completely break them.

[dude]

Do they really want to be pulling him if/when he goes scoreless through 4 and dealing? It would at least be another sign that winning is not the most important thing (and sure isn’t the only thing). Not to mention the unnecessary extra workload it puts on the BP.

 

Right, there are other consequences.

 

You do seem to largely think they should just cut him loose, but I disagree with that.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Do they really want to be pulling him if/when he goes scoreless through 4 and dealing? It would at least be another sign that winning is not the most important thing (and sure isn’t the only thing). Not to mention the unnecessary extra workload it puts on the BP.

 

I really don't think an extra 1-2 innings every 5 days is gonna ruin the bullpen if we assume Wells and Voth, who have built up starter stamina, can finish innings 5-6 and then from there it's a normal game of 3 bullpen innings across Givens/Tate/Perez/Felix etc

[BSLMikeLowe]

Right, there are other consequences.

 

You do seem to largely think they should just cut him loose, but I disagree with that.

That’s not what I think. I picked option 3.

 

If you can manage things in a way where you have to pull him after 6 once he comes to Baltimore, that would seem ideal. Automatically pulling him after 4 in Baltimore in April/May is not. That’s what the minor leagues are for (among other things).