53 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

You seem to think Team performance is some static accumulation of fWAR.  Otherwise, you wouldn't say what you just did.

 

We're talking about how you get the most out of the roster, not whether you are allowed to do [whatever] to your roster.

I'm under the impression that professionals are professionals.  
I'm also of the crazy opinion that 162 games are long seasons, and different opportunities arise... so it's nice to have talented options available depth wise.  Yes every roster has the same number of people available, they don't all have the same ability. 

[BSLMikeLowe]

I really don't think an extra 1-2 innings every 5 days is gonna ruin the bullpen if we assume Wells and Voth, who have built up starter stamina, can finish innings 5-6 and then from there it's a normal game of 3 bullpen innings across Givens/Tate/Perez/Felix etc

I’m not understanding how they maintain “starter stamina” if they are only getting 1-2 innings per outing, perhaps as little as once every five games.

[Mackus]

I’m not understanding how they maintain “starter stamina” if they are only getting 1-2 innings per outing, perhaps as little as once every five games.

 

Akin and Voth did it last year.  Guys in the pen aren't gonna go 100+ pitches during a spot-start or long-relief appearance, but they can still get into the 50-60 range with regularity even if they've only been doing 15-30 for most of their recent outings.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Akin and Voth did it last year.  Guys in the pen aren't gonna go 100+ pitches during a spot-start or long-relief appearance, but they can still get into the 50-60 range with regularity even if they've only been doing 15-30 for most of their recent outings.

Ok. I still hate the idea of turning a game over to the bullpen that early when the starter’s performance doesn’t warrant it. There’s a reason Akin, Voth, et al are in the bullpen in the first place. It’s just the cherry on top of everything else this offseason that demonstrates this season isn’t about winning.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Yeah and if they're doing well they don't need to leave after 1-2 innings and can stay until they hit whatever their pitch count would be, Grayson goes 4 with 1-2 ER, Voth goes 4 with 1-2 ER, Felix gets the save seems like a pretty plausible thing that could happen multiple times per year. If the Opening Day bullpen includes Voth, Akin and Wells then I'm really not worried about figuring out the best way to use them in Grayson starts to keep the four end-of-game guys from being used more than normal

[Mackus]

Ok. I still hate the idea of turning a game over to the bullpen that early when the starter’s performance doesn’t warrant it. There’s a reason Akin, Voth, et al are in the bullpen in the first place. It’s just the cherry on top of everything else this offseason that demonstrates this season isn’t about winning.

 

I don't think the idea of not forcing a Kerry Wood type of workload onto Rodriguez early in the season is any example, yet alone a good one, of them not wanting to win this year.   There are many other examples of them not prioritizing this year, fully agree that winning baseball games in 2023 is a nice-to-have for management and not something they are willing to put any future resources into trying to achieve.  But in a much better world where they desperately wanted to win and had done everything we'd hoped in the offseason, I think they'd still be taking the same approach with Rodriguez.

 

Where exactly he spends the first three weeks of the season is a future versus present question that is largely about what's best for the organization.  So its not entirely about what's best for Rodriguez.  But other than that, everything they do will be about prioritizing his personal development (including health).  They'll try to optimize the benefit he can provide to the team within those constraints, but the driving priority will be his individual needs.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Yeah I think if they signed Correa and Rodon instead of Gibson they'd still be putting him on an innings limit as the #5 starter

[NewMarketSean]

I see the team keeping him down to get an extra year of control. We already have Kremer, Bradish, Irvin, Wells, Voth and Gibson to start the year until GRod is called up.

[DuffMan]

If he's on an innings limit I don't want any of them wasted in Norfolk.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

If he's on an innings limit I don't want any of them wasted in Norfolk.

The problem is that its way easier to limit innings at Norfolk than it is in Baltimore. I don't think there is any question at all that he will be on an innings limit this year. So the club has to figure out a way to ensure that however they do it that its not a situation where the O's find themselves in a playoff chase and have to shut him down. If they can reasonably do that with him on the OD roster then fine by me.

 

But can you imagine the fan outrage if come August 15th we are 2 games out of a playoff spot and GRod (obviously assuming he has done well) gets shut down?

[BSLMikeLowe]

But can you imagine the fan outrage if come August 15th we are 2 games out of a playoff spot and GRod (obviously assuming he has done well) gets shut down?

I can. They prepared us for that quite well at last year’s trade deadline.

[dude]

The problem is that its way easier to limit innings at Norfolk than it is in Baltimore. I don't think there is any question at all that he will be on an innings limit this year. So the club has to figure out a way to ensure that however they do it that its not a situation where the O's find themselves in a playoff chase and have to shut him down. If they can reasonably do that with him on the OD roster then fine by me.

But can you imagine the fan outrage if come August 15th we are 2 games out of a playoff spot and GRod (obviously assuming he has done well) gets shut down?

Steve, this may be may favorite post of yours on the Baseball side.

To MikeL's comment earlier, also, ....

If you get 5 starts each in June, July, August and September and consider an average of 5 IP, 6 IP then 7 IP in the last 2 months, that's 125 innings.

That's about where I'd want to be if I was planning on making the Playoffs to include GRod as part of those rosters. Things will happen, you get some shorter outings, you'll get some longer ones (we hope), but you need some work up before that, but I think that's largely baked into the larger cake.

Have him walk by a pot hole early in camp....let him get his ST in April, some AAA rehab in May and that can count as being 'on the roster'.

[russsnyder]

I voted no.

I think getting back on his feet in Triple A will be best for him coming off his injury. He'll arrive in Baltimore this year, it won't be on opening day.

[dude]

Since we're talking about Wells here (because I think he is the guy most impacted by this thread) I'll add this because we should always be solution oriented.  Mackus mentioned this earlier about my approach, but I sort of believe your contract follows your heart and without being overly dramatic, I think success (in everything, not just baseball) flows from there....

 

My preference for Wells is a high-leverage, multi-inning power RP and spot-SP.  Being able to close out close games with 2-4 innings or picking up spot starts and giving a chance to win is routinely important.  Teams wind up with starters in that role in the Playoffs and it winds up being important even if not sexy. Would be in the 100-125 IP range.

 

Somewhere between Wells, Holt and Hyde, maybe you just make everything OK.

 

Elias solves this with a contract. Go into a contract like this valuing the role I described.  Do 2024 at 3.5M with a 6.5M mutual option for 2025.  The 3.5M is a 750k signing bonus, 2.5M in 2024 and a 250k buyout on the mutual option. 

 

Wells actually doubles his 2023 salary which is big and the 3.5M guarantee for 2024 treats him more like he'd be a league average starter in arbitration and the mutual option is more starter than relief money.  I'd be leveraging Tyler in that role for the next 2 years, then if he's not emerged as one of the starters for the 2025 rotation, he probably gets traded into a situation where he will more likely start.

 

Given all of the things the Orioles likely need to accomplish this year in terms of some limitations for GRod and Hall, Means return and some variability from guys like Bradish and Kremer, you need someone to really embrace the flex weapon role on the staff.