128 replies to this topic

[makoman]

I’ve said before that the cautionary tale IMO would be Cam Newton, but Josh Allen is much more that type of run through you style of runner. Lamar takes a lot of hits for sure but a significant number are him just getting down and out of bounds. I’m not greatly concerned about the next 4-5 years.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I’ve said before that the cautionary tale IMO would be Cam Newton, but Josh Allen is much more that type of run through you style of runner. Lamar takes a lot of hits for sure but a significant number are him just getting down and out of bounds. I’m not greatly concerned about the next 4-5 years.

He’s already missed ~30% of the past 2 seasons. I too don’t think he’s going to fall apart or anything, but I’d say I am slightly concerned at this point. But a change in offensive styles/systems could help with this too.

[Mackus]

He’s already missed ~30% of the past 2 seasons. I too don’t think he’s going to fall apart or anything, but I’d say I am slightly concerned at this point. But a change in offensive styles/systems could help with this too.

Concern is certainly warranted and needs to be considered as part of the decision. I still don't think he's notably more likely to miss games than most other QBs though. Moreso than missed time, I'm more concerned about his level of play when less than 100%, he's gonna taper off on a banged up day more than a straight pocket passer who doesn't need the mobility.

[makoman]

He’s already missed ~30% of the past 2 seasons. I too don’t think he’s going to fall apart or anything, but I’d say I am slightly concerned at this point. But a change in offensive styles/systems could help with this too.

I guess, what I mean is that I'm not concerned that his running style will lead to injuries or wearing down, as his injuries have been from sacks in the pocket. I am certainly more concerned than I was 2 years ago that maybe he is just injury prone, as some people are.

 

eta It's probably pointless to separate those concerns, but it still could just be bad luck from two particular tackles rather than a risky style problem.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I guess, what I mean is that I'm not concerned that his running style will lead to injuries or wearing down, as his injuries have been from sacks in the pocket. I am certainly more concerned than I was 2 years ago that maybe he is just injury prone, as some people are.

I tend to agree with Jamie that his style does open his body up to more wear and tear and injuries. Not all injuries are impact injuries (IE, hard hit, knee gets caught, and torn). A lot of stuff I’ve read on injuries suggests your body/muscles being sore/tired opens you up to injuries. I think that’s what happens in those “non-contact” injuries, which this recent one for Lamar basically was. It isn’t about the big hits all the time, which I agree Lamar seems to have some kind of super power in avoiding those, it’s borderline magical at times. But it’s the exhaustion and the energy exerted.

[makoman]

I tend to agree with Jamie that his style does open his body up to more wear and tear and injuries. Not all injuries are impact injuries (IE, hard hit, knee gets caught, and torn). A lot of stuff I’ve read on injuries suggests your body/muscles being sore/tired opens you up to injuries. I think that’s what happens in those “non-contact” injuries, which this recent one for Lamar basically was. It isn’t about the big hits all the time, which I agree Lamar seems to have some kind of super power in avoiding those, it’s borderline magical at times. But it’s the exhaustion and the energy exerted.

Yeah I can't really argue with that. Avoiding hits the way he does an extra 10 times a game must add to the fatigue, and I think injuries are always more likely when fatigued.

 

I also agree with Mackus that it's important to consider that if his legs aren't 100% that impacts him more than a lot of other QBs, like if Brady has a sprain and needs a knee brace it doesn't really change his game. So all these nagging injuries (I feel like he was banged up several times early in the year?) add to the valuation you need to do.

[PrimeTime]

Lamar is 25 years old. How old were Young and McNair when you thought them dilapidated? I bet it was 29 or 30.

I'm not implying that Lamar is dilapidated now, I don't think my post came across that way. However, I think that it's worthwhile to consider the cumulative effect of being a hybrid runner/passer.

Regarding McNair, we watched him fall apart in real time. He willed himself through the '06 and was done on '07, at age 34. Steve Young lasted longer but he didn't become a starter until his age 30 season.

Also worth mentioning, Lamar already has more carries in 4ish seasons than either McNair (669) or Young (722) did in their entire careers.

In the interest of full disclosure, I didn't look up Young's USFL stats.

[PrimeTime]

Steve Young was a 2nd team all pro at 37 and did almost everything significant in his career in his 30s.

He wasn't a full time starter until his age 30 season.

And it helped that Young was on a team with All Pro talent galore. Look at some of those offensive rosters in San Fran, pretty ridiculous. Bearing in mind that the salary cap wasn't a thing until 1994.

[Mackus]

Steve Young was a 2nd team all pro at 37 and did almost everything significant in his career in his 30s.

Ugh...I meant "wasn't" and the typo absolutely inversed the intended meaning of my post.

[bmore_ken]

I can see where you would think I was alluding to that but I was just saying injuries in general, regardless of how it happened. 

Injuries are part of football. If you're not going to sign players because of injury risks, you wouldn't have a team. 

[bmore_ken]

This may be a little bit too much of a reach but bear with me...perhaps because of the stress and strain Lamar puts on his body through running the ball leaves him vulnerable to injury. Whether he gets hurt in the pocket/dropping back vs getting hurt while carrying the ball doesn't really matter. Jackson probably gets hit, on average, 15 or so times more than a typical pocket passer and those hits must take a toll.

If you look at the hit that has Lamar on the shelf, it looks completely innocuous. But when you realize just how much mileage Jackson has put on his body by taking "normal" QB hits through passing, energy expended running the ball 10-15 times a game, plus any hits he may absorb in the open field, his body is going through it.

Think about how many RBs simply fall off the map at age 30. Jackson isn't carrying the ball 250-300 times a year but he has logged 727 carries so far and if you combine that mileage and hits with QB hits and sacks, it's quite a beating.

Good theory, but I'm not buying it. Number one, Lamar isn't 30. Number 2, Josh Jacobs is at about half of Lamar's 727 just this season. 

[bmore_ken]

I’ve said before that the cautionary tale IMO would be Cam Newton, but Josh Allen is much more that type of run through you style of runner. Lamar takes a lot of hits for sure but a significant number are him just getting down and out of bounds. I’m not greatly concerned about the next 4-5 years.

Same here. People have been predicting a career ending injury since he's been drafted.

[bmore_ken]

maybe he is just injury prone, as some people are.

Or maybe his O line sucks

[bmore_ken]

In the interest of full disclosure, I didn't look up Young's USFL stats.

That's part of the hole in your theory

[mdrunning]

I'm not implying that Lamar is dilapidated now, I don't think my post came across that way. However, I think that it's worthwhile to consider the cumulative effect of being a hybrid runner/passer.

Regarding McNair, we watched him fall apart in real time. He willed himself through the '06 and was done on '07, at age 34. Steve Young lasted longer but he didn't become a starter until his age 30 season.

Also worth mentioning, Lamar already has more carries in 4ish seasons than either McNair (669) or Young (722) did in their entire careers.

In the interest of full disclosure, I didn't look up Young's USFL stats.

Pretty pedestrian, to be honest. More interceptions than touchdowns and passer ratings of 80.6 and 63.1, respectively.

 

However, it should be noted that in 1985, Young and a number of other players on the L.A. Express played very tentatively that season because they fully expected that financially-strapped Express would not be around for the planned move to a fall schedule in 1986. Thus, they didn't want to risk their NFL prospects should there be a dispersal draft.

[PrimeTime]

Good theory, but I'm not buying it. Number one, Lamar isn't 30. Number 2, Josh Jacobs is at about half of Lamar's 727 just this season.

What does Josh Jacobs carries have to do with anything?

I know Lamar isn't 30 but we're now in back to back seasons where he's suffered what appeared to minor injuries that have lingered on fairly regular looking tackles. Not only is it reasonable to have concerns about his health and durability but it's also difficult not to correlate health to his usage.

[PrimeTime]

That's part of the hole in your theory

Go Baltimore Stars!!

[jamesdean]

Injuries are part of football. If you're not going to sign players because of injury risks, you wouldn't have a team. 

Yeah but most players aren't Lamar Jackson wanting Watson money, fully guaranteed.  In this case, injuries matter greatly as he's unfortunately going to find out. 

[bmore_ken]

Yeah but most players aren't Lamar Jackson wanting Watson money, fully guaranteed.  In this case, injuries matter greatly as he's unfortunately going to find out. 

None of us know that to be fact.

[Slidemaster]

None of us know that to be fact.

But come on now. Literally everything indicates it and nothing indicates otherwise.