614 replies to this topic

[Ravens2006]

I was distracted with the Terps game, I saw Roquan Smith take a knee after a play, looked like he was in pain, did he return? Is he okay?

 

Yeah he was back out there not too much later, running around and making plays...

[bmore_ken]

Brown's YPG average was much lower last year once Lamar for hurt. Bateman didn't play that many games WITH Lamar because Bateman was hurt early in the season. I think full year of those three would have posted legit, credible NFL 1 & 2 WR numbers for the most part. Not top tier duo caliber, but not the usual "Ravens don't have receivers conversation starter" level

Exactly

[Mackus]

Bateman has 2 more years on his rookie deal to make an impact. After Bateman and Hollywood, we have mostly mid round picks that don't have a great success rate. If you're counting TEs then we have Likely, Andrews, and Hurst. You have to go back to Perriman for the last WR we took in the first 2 rounds.

Even among the mid rounders we did hit on Duvernay, who looks like, at worst, a playable 3rd WR on most NFL teams with a knack for special teams.

 

I'm not counting TEs.  And did say that Bateman still has time left to perhaps become a stud (or he could struggle next year and have his option declined).

 

https://www.pro-foot...s/rav/draft.htm

 

I don't know how far back we wanna look.  Perriman was 8 drafts ago (2015).  Torrey was 12 (2011).  I think either is a reasonable starting counting point, or could look just look at the last 4 since 2019 when DeCosta was the final say for all picks.

 

In any of the breakdowns, I think the Ravens have more or less failed at basically any criteria you want to consider regarding drafting WR.  They haven't invested a ton of draft capital (DeCosta has recently, however).  They haven't gotten the type of return on that capital I think you'd expect.  They haven't found good players late.  They haven't found star players anywhere.  Recent drafts have probably the best results.  Brown was solid as a #1.  Not a star, but fine.  Still, that's two #1s, two #3s, and a #4 in four drafts without much to show for it (getting Linderbaum for Brown and a #3 helps the equation though).  Early for Bateman, and Duvernay has other skills beyond playing WR. 

 

Again, I'll say that the problem for me isn't that any one pick was bad or that even the sum of all the picks is really bad even though it is.  Its that they've never found a really good WR.  Nobody has popped in all the picks they've taken.  Hollywood is above average and Torrey Smith was above average.  That's it.  Everyone else is meh or worse.  

[jamesdean]

He had Brown throw 44 times yesterday.  Plus 4 sacks, he dropped back at least 48 times.  A not great rookie on the road making his first NFL start.

 

Now... the retort will be... they were down 17-0 early, what do you want him to do!?!?!?!?  Examine WHY they were down 17-0 early...

 

Two interceptions because they put the ball in the air.  The first was a horrific pass.  On first down.  The second was bobbled, but again, know your personnel.  Rookie QB, first start, weak WR corps.  The third TD when they were sort of close... a fumble because they're asking him to throw from his own goal line in the closing seconds of the half (instead of keeping it on the ground, making Cincy burn TOs, and try to get to halftime with a little good vibe).

 

Throw the ball as little as humanly possible.  Run on first.  Run on second and long.  Run on third and long even.  See where you are on 4th, and probably punt.  If you're throwing, it's off play action with a back next to you (not empty backfield).  Force Cincy to drive 70+ yards for TDs, don't give short fields.  Maybe that run heavy scheme starts to wear down the DL.  It's simple fact... run blocking allows the OL to initiate contact more and attack the DL.  This can (not guaranteed) make no gains / short gains early on when "the run isn't working" turn in to big chunks later in the game.  But you have to have the patience to stick to it and punt a little, and hope that your D contributes too.  Roman has no patience.  No stick-to-it-iveness.  None.  Zero.

 

Roman creates his own challenges because he mismanages the skills and abilities of the talent he has at his disposal.

 

So yeah, they trailed big early because they played the exact style of football that was MOST LIKELY to dig them in that hole.  Having a rookie QB put the ball in the air (predictably) without a great cast to make everything work perfectly for him.  Face the reality of what you have Greg.  John, just stand there with that slightly annoyed, mostly confused and bewildered look on your face and enjoy the paycheck.

Someone should have a contest to see who's head is harder- Roman or Harbaugh.  Those two deserve each other.  Yeah, 44 passes from a rookie quarterback who has never started an NFL game, let alone on the road against arguably the best team in the AFC.  I didn't have a problem with them starting him because I figured with Huntley out of the picture, Roman would have enough sense in his head to really go heavy on the ground and minimize potential and costly mistakes from Brown.  When Edwards broke off the 10 yard run on the first play of the game, I got a warm, fuzzy feeling that this was going to be the day we see a total commitment to running the ball.  Wrong.  And par for the course, Roman resorted to his customary panic mode once they got behind.  I'm almost glad they'll be put out of their misery this Sunday because I've had my fill of this offense.  If they retain Roman for 2023, that will tell me all I need to know on how much this organization wants to win.  

[Steve55]

Someone should have a contest to see who's head is harder- Roman or Harbaugh.  Those two deserve each other.  Yeah, 44 passes from a rookie quarterback who has never started an NFL game, let alone on the road against arguably the best team in the AFC.  I didn't have a problem with them starting him because I figured with Huntley out of the picture, Roman would have enough sense in his head to really go heavy on the ground and minimize potential and costly mistakes from Brown.  When Edwards broke off the 10 yard run on the first play of the game, I got a warm, fuzzy feeling that this was going to be the day we see a total commitment to running the ball.  Wrong.  And par for the course, Roman resorted to his customary panic mode once they got behind.  I'm almost glad they'll be put out of their misery this Sunday because I've had my fill of this offense.  If they retain Roman for 2023, that will tell me all I need to know on how much this organization wants to win.  

 

 

Burrow threw the ball 42 times. Could you say the running game wasn't working for both teams .?

[bmore_ken]

I'm almost glad they'll be put out of their misery this Sunday because I've had my fill of this offense. If they retain Roman for 2023, that will tell me all I need to know on how much this organization wants to win.

Amen brother

[bmore_ken]

Burrow threw the ball 42 times. Could you say the running game wasn't working for both teams .?

Number one, Burrow is not a third string undrafted rookie quarterback making his first start. Number two Burrow has the Personnel to make 42 passes a game work. Definitely àn apples and oranges comparison there.

[jamesdean]

Burrow threw the ball 42 times. Could you say the running game wasn't working for both teams .?

If Baltimore had the passing talents of Joe Burrow and his receiving corp, I'd feel differently about it.  It actually makes sense for someone like him to throw the ball that much.  Mixon is a decent back but not the heart of their offense. 

[BaltBird 24]

If Baltimore had the passing talents of Joe Burrow and his receiving corp, I'd feel differently about it. It actually makes sense for someone like him to throw the ball that much. Mixon is a decent back but not the heart of their offense.

Right? No one would be complaining if we had Joe Burrows throwing the ball 42 times to Jamaar Chase and Tee Higgins.

[hallas]

I'm not counting TEs.  And did say that Bateman still has time left to perhaps become a stud (or he could struggle next year and have his option declined).

 

https://www.pro-foot...s/rav/draft.htm

 

I don't know how far back we wanna look.  Perriman was 8 drafts ago (2015).  Torrey was 12 (2011).  I think either is a reasonable starting counting point, or could look just look at the last 4 since 2019 when DeCosta was the final say for all picks.

 

In any of the breakdowns, I think the Ravens have more or less failed at basically any criteria you want to consider regarding drafting WR.  They haven't invested a ton of draft capital (DeCosta has recently, however).  They haven't gotten the type of return on that capital I think you'd expect.  They haven't found good players late.  They haven't found star players anywhere.  Recent drafts have probably the best results.  Brown was solid as a #1.  Not a star, but fine.  Still, that's two #1s, two #3s, and a #4 in four drafts without much to show for it (getting Linderbaum for Brown and a #3 helps the equation though).  Early for Bateman, and Duvernay has other skills beyond playing WR. 

 

Again, I'll say that the problem for me isn't that any one pick was bad or that even the sum of all the picks is really bad even though it is.  Its that they've never found a really good WR.  Nobody has popped in all the picks they've taken.  Hollywood is above average and Torrey Smith was above average.  That's it.  Everyone else is meh or worse.  

 

So WRs have historically had a decently high bust rate even in early rounds, but the success rate in rounds 1 and 2 isn't that different.  I've looked at a couple different sites with analysis on the topic and they more or less agree even though they don't use the same criteria for a success.  Regardless, round 3 receivers succeed less than 1/4 of the time using various criteria for success, and round 4 receivers less than 10% of the time.  It's really tough to draw conclusions about the Ravens success/failure rate on the basis of 3 draft picks in those rounds.

 

I think that in the Newsome era the argument that we failed to draft WRs is much stronger.  He drafted 4 WRs in rounds 1 and 2 during his tenure (Taylor, Mark Clayton, Smith, Perriman) and only 1 was a success and the other 3 were colossal busts)

 

I do wonder about the recent high hit rate among drafted receivers - it seems like the past 2 or 3 draft classes have had an inordinate number of WR successes.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Yes, they could have run more yesterday.
Yes, they were impacted by not having JK, and losing Gus... and the scoreboard. 

How many games this year were Jackson, JK, Gus, and Stanley available together? 

Not many, and it was still one of the best rushing attacks in the league.

[Steve55]

Number one, Burrow is not a third string undrafted rookie quarterback making his first start. Number two Burrow has the Personnel to make 42 passes a game work. Definitely àn apples and oranges comparison there.

 

 

So are you saying run 3x each series & punt.?

 

I thought it was dumb to throw from the end zone with a rookie qb. Other than that they had to throw when needed.

[jamesdean]

So are you saying run 3x each series & punt.?

 

I thought it was dumb to throw from the end zone with a rookie qb. Other than that they had to throw when needed.

That's kind of a defeatist attitude considering the Ravens, despite their overall, offensive ineptitude, consistently fielded one of the best running attacks in football. 

[Steve55]

That's kind of a defeatist attitude considering the Ravens, despite their overall, offensive ineptitude, consistently fielded one of the best running attacks in football. 

 

 

But unless they are gaining 4 yrs per carry each 3 plays they have to pass.

[bmore_ken]

So are you saying run 3x each series & punt.?

 

I thought it was dumb to throw from the end zone with a rookie qb. Other than that they had to throw when needed.

1. I absolutely did not say that. 2. Justice Hill averaged almost 5 YPC, Drake 3.8, and Gus at 4 before he had to come out, so I'm not sure where you're getting three runs and a punt from.  Being run heavy doesn't mean be one dimensional, but you're not doing your undrafted rookie qb starting his first game by attempting to make him Tom Brady against what some people consider the top team in the conference.

[bmore_ken]

But unless they are gaining 4 yrs per carry each 3 plays they have to pass.

They were all averaging 4 yds per carry. And no one said don't throw any passes, you're just being obtuse with that comment.

[Mike in STL]

1. I absolutely did not say that. 2. Justice Hill averaged almost 5 YPC, Drake 3.8, and Gus at 4 before he had to come out, so I'm not sure where you're getting three runs and a punt from. Being run heavy doesn't mean be one dimensional, but you're not doing your undrafted rookie qb starting his first game by attempting to make him Tom Brady against what some people consider the top team in the conference.

Yawn

[bmore_ken]

Yawn

Sounds like you need to get more sleep at night. Take some Ambien.

[Steve55]

They were all averaging 4 yds per carry. And no one said don't throw any passes, you're just being obtuse with that comment.

 

 

When someone says, why are they throwing so much, its because they have to. That 4 yrd avg may have included a 10-12 yrd run and a few 1-2 yrd runs. Put those together and its 3rd & 6 or 8.

[cprenegade]

When someone says, why are they throwing so much, its because they have to. That 4 yrd avg may have included a 10-12 yrd run and a few 1-2 yrd runs. Put those together and its 3rd & 6 or 8.

 

Yeah, that is why just citing averages is not a good way to judge.  Using the median (which the stats don't show) would really be a better way to make a case for or against because it takes the middle value where half of all data points are over and half are under.  

 

This was true in the Pittsburgh game where JK Dobbins averaged 93 yards on 17 carries.  That's a healthy average of 5.4 yards.  But 66 of those yards came on 4 carries, which means the other 13 carries averaged 2.07 yard.  The median on his carries was actually 3 yards which means half of all of his carries were at or under 3 yards.