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2022 Game 17: 1/8 @ Cincinnati 1PM


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#581 Ravens2006

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 07:36 AM

When someone says, why are they throwing so much, its because they have to. That 4 yrd avg may have included a 10-12 yrd run and a few 1-2 yrd runs. Put those together and its 3rd & 6 or 8.

 

Issue to me is how often they help PUT THEMSELVES in that situation where folks can justify the "well they HAD to throw" situation.

 

Take Sunday.  24-7 deficit at the half.  First drive the Ravens punted, Cincy had to go a long field and stalled, kicked a FG.

 

Second drive, INT (a HORRIFIC pass on FIRST down)... Cincy scores a TD on a short field.

 

Next drive, INT on a catchable PASS but an INT nonetheless... Cincy scores a TD on a VERY short field.

 

Last drive of the half, under a minute left, on 2nd down they throw incomplete (allowing Cincy to NOT burn a TO and more time to do something should they get the ball back).  Then the goal line fumble that turns in to an INSTANT TD.

 

21 points off short fields or worse, all on passing drops.  3 points off normal "long distance" drives.

 

I know it "sounds" strange, but ESPECIALLY when this team is featuring Huntley or Brown at QB, against a good opponent, they should be running HEAVILY.  3 and outs and punts are going to happen sometimes (but not always).  Throw off play action pretty much exclusively.  

 

Roman called a game in the first half that basically handed Cincy the shovel to dig the Ravens hole for them.  So yeah, they "had to throw more" because in large part, they imposed that on themselves.  He does it too often.


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#582 jamesdean

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 08:26 AM

Issue to me is how often they help PUT THEMSELVES in that situation where folks can justify the "well they HAD to throw" situation.

 

Take Sunday.  24-7 deficit at the half.  First drive the Ravens punted, Cincy had to go a long field and stalled, kicked a FG.

 

Second drive, INT (a HORRIFIC pass on FIRST down)... Cincy scores a TD on a short field.

 

Next drive, INT on a catchable PASS but an INT nonetheless... Cincy scores a TD on a VERY short field.

 

Last drive of the half, under a minute left, on 2nd down they throw incomplete (allowing Cincy to NOT burn a TO and more time to do something should they get the ball back).  Then the goal line fumble that turns in to an INSTANT TD.

 

21 points off short fields or worse, all on passing drops.  3 points off normal "long distance" drives.

 

I know it "sounds" strange, but ESPECIALLY when this team is featuring Huntley or Brown at QB, against a good opponent, they should be running HEAVILY.  3 and outs and punts are going to happen sometimes (but not always).  Throw off play action pretty much exclusively.  

 

Roman called a game in the first half that basically handed Cincy the shovel to dig the Ravens hole for them.  So yeah, they "had to throw more" because in large part, they imposed that on themselves.  He does it too often.

I think a lot of this back-and-forth debate on being either run or pass heavy is personal biases relative to age.  The younger posters on here are going to prefer Lamar or the backups throw the ball a lot, which is more in tune to the type of offenses prevalent in the league now.  I get it.  I'm a little bit older, more impressed with a great running attack and love to see it enforced on teams.  With that said, you have to utilize what your strengths are, dependent how the offense has been constructed.  For some bizarre reason, Roman creates this amazing, complex run game and then doesn't seem to believe in his own system.  It reminds me of people who go on a diet and start working out for the first time.  They do great in the first couple of weeks, they're motivated, see that the plan is working and start to believe in themselves.  Then after a few weeks and the progress begins to plateau, they lose interest, they panic, they think there has to be a better way because now the results depend on self-discipline and fortitude to keep at it.  Why on earth would Roman think Brown throwing the ball 44 times was the answer to winning the game?  Did he or Harbaugh even care whether they won or not? I sure wonder sometimes.  If ever there was a time to run the ball all day, it was Sunday.  So, they only get 2 or 3 yards on some carries?  Did they stop giving Barry Sanders the ball after he could only get a couple of yards or even no gain?  If you know Dobbins and Edwards can break 15-20 yard runs, then you have to get beyond the ones where they don't.  Maybe you have to punt sometimes. So what?  You've eaten up clock, you keep the opposition in a long field, and you let the defense do its job.  No, it's not pretty, it's not exciting for most but do you want the team to win or don't you?  I can tell you this much- if they don't run the ball at least 40 times this Sunday night, they have ZERO chance of winning.  None.  The ratio with this offense the way it's currently assembled should never deviate from 40 rushes to 20 passes.  If they completely deconstruct this roster, get a quarterback who has a great arm, throws with uncanny accuracy,  has receivers who don't drop balls, get consistent YAC and score touchdowns, then I'll be all for a pass heavy offense.  Until that happens, if you want the team to win, you run until you can't run anymore. 


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#583 Mackus

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 09:56 AM

Agree that any path to victory on Sunday is built around a lot of rushing, but 40 is probably too high of a threshold to declare as the only way they have a shot.  If they run it a lot, the clock runs more and there are fewer plays overall. 



#584 jamesdean

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 10:31 AM

Agree that any path to victory on Sunday is built around a lot of rushing, but 40 is probably too high of a threshold to declare as the only way they have a shot.  If they run it a lot, the clock runs more and there are fewer plays overall. 

For the Bengals too and that's key.  The less time Burrow and his weapons are on the field, the better.  I don't think 40 rushes is too much. That should be the gold standard with this offense. 



#585 Mackus

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 10:43 AM

For the Bengals too and that's key.  The less time Burrow and his weapons are on the field, the better.  I don't think 40 rushes is too much. That should be the gold standard with this offense. 

 

In general, time of possession doesn't really help you win by itself.  Field position does, though, and if you're running the ball a lot you're likely to be moving at least a little bit even on non-scoring drives and able to win the field position battle. That'll depend on our punter to do a good job, though, and that's been a struggle this year.  Coverage units are good, at least.



#586 jamesdean

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 10:57 AM

In general, time of possession doesn't really help you win by itself.  Field position does, though, and if you're running the ball a lot you're likely to be moving at least a little bit even on non-scoring drives and able to win the field position battle. That'll depend on our punter to do a good job, though, and that's been a struggle this year.  Coverage units are good, at least.

In the Ravens case, it doesn't hurt.  It usually means good things, not bad. 



#587 Mackus

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 11:07 AM

In the Ravens case, it doesn't hurt.  It usually means good things, not bad. 

 

Certainly doesn't hurt, but it still at the fundamental level comes down to cashing in those drives (points or at least field position) being what leads to winning more than just seeing time come off the clock. 

 

Defenses don't actually do any better at stopping the opposing offense when they are rested (i.e. their offense just had a long drive or is winning TOP for the game up to that point).  Surely anecdotes exist where you can point to a defense looking tired, but those are kind of like arguments about momentum, they are hard to quantify and aren't repeatable and over a larger sample of all games don't tend to correlate to time of possession.



#588 jamesdean

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 11:16 AM

They absolutely must score TD's when and if they get into the red zone. They've been pitiful in that area for months and it has to change if they have any chance Sunday night. So, I agree with you as far as that goes.

#589 Mackus

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 11:18 AM

They absolutely must score TD's when and if they get into the red zone. They've been pitiful in that area for months and it has to change if they have any chance Sunday night. So, I agree with you as far as that goes.

 

What would you do on 4th-and-short in this game if you're inside the 20?  More aggressive than you'd usually be?



#590 Mackus

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 11:19 AM

One other, pro-TOP and pro-rushing argument, would be that consistently longer drives will reduce the total number of drives for each team in the game.  Fewer drives is effectively a shorter game.  Shorter game means higher variance.  Higher variance is what you want if you're the underdog.



#591 jamesdean

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 11:33 AM

What would you do on 4th-and-short in this game if you're inside the 20?  More aggressive than you'd usually be?

Ordinarily, I would say kick the FG.  Especially early in a game.  But this is the play-offs and FG's aren't going to cut it against Cincinnati. Now, they could turn the ball over a few times and change the whole dynamics of the game but you can't rely on that happening.  So, as much as I cringe when I think back to the Tennessee play-off game in 2019, I do think I would expect Harbaugh to be aggressive and I'd agree with it.  But if Edwards is out there and healthy, I don't want to see any hand-offs to Ricard or something cute involving a pass play. 



#592 NewMarketSean

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 12:07 PM

Take the points. I'd be fine beating them 15-13 with 5 FGs.


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#593 Ravens2006

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 12:29 PM

You take every point you can get and hope. Huntley / Brown can't finish drives anyway.

#594 jamesdean

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 12:31 PM

You take every point you can get and hope. Huntley / Brown can't finish drives anyway.

If they can't convert drives into TD's, they're going to lose.  Barring a shocking display of turnovers by the Bengals, it's as simple as that. 



#595 Slidemaster

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 12:31 PM

The defense/ST has to play out of their minds to have a chance, to the tune of allowing fewer than 14 points (maybe fewer than 10), and likely putting the offense in great position to score with big turnovers or returns.

I'd put the percentage that happens at less than 10.

#596 jamesdean

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 12:32 PM

Take the points. I'd be fine beating them 15-13 with 5 FGs.

Without turnovers, there's no way the Bengals are going to be held to 13 points.  It's probably more realistic to add 20 to that total. 



#597 Slidemaster

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 12:32 PM

If they can't convert drives into TD's, they're going to lose. Barring a shocking display of turnovers by the Bengals, it's as simple as that.


Burrow isn't turning it over more than once. They have to get to him over and over again.

#598 makoman

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 12:37 PM

Burrow isn't turning it over more than once. They have to get to him over and over again.

He had 2+ turnovers 4 times this year. It ain't impossible. And it's the main way they have a chance.



#599 Mackus

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 12:39 PM

Without turnovers, there's no way the Bengals are going to be held to 13 points.  It's probably more realistic to add 20 to that total. 

 

33 feels more likely than 13, but the Bengals have only hit 33+ four times this year and one of those was the TB game when they had 4 turnovers leading to points.  Only held under 20 three times though, so agree that a big number is more likely. 

 

I'm hoping we find a way to score 20.  Maybe its ST, defensive score, or short field that helps get there, or maybe the offense just finally stops playing terribly (more plausible if Lamar is back).  If we can get 20, then I think its close to a coinflip that the defense can hold them under that.

 

At least until the end.  Still don't have much faith that the defense won't give up another TD after holding them to 16 or 17 through 58 minutes.


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#600 Ravens2006

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Posted 11 January 2023 - 12:40 PM

Defense hasn't scored all year I believe??? That means they're due! :)




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