62 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Awesome that now somehow Kremer is a lynchpin to the future. I've argued he should be in the rotation above all of these mid-tier FA desires...but now he's a must. Cool.

If we had Bumgarner, the 2024 rotation would be...

MadBum
Means
GRod
Hall
Bradish

Maybe he is a lynchpin. Maybe he is not. Hes not the one being moved aside on OD if Bumgarner were to be acquired.


Also cant say anything about '24 right now. We hope GRod, Hall, amd Bradish all perform. Kremer could easily have earned a spot over any of those 3 at the conclusion of '23

[TwentyThirtyFive]

He's not a must, but he's also far from first one demoted to make room for a new guy. He also should be given the opportunity to stick in the rotation for this year and years to come unless he can be included in a trade that makes sense, so not this one.

Now youre even getting likes !!

[dude]

Also the Baumgarner = Verlander idea is pretty hard to support.  Verlander had a very shaky 2014 at Age 31.  He then had a very good albeit injury-plagued 2015 and was 2nd in the Cy Young in 2016 before having a mildly down first two-thirds of 2017, with a 117 ERA+ at Age 34 when he was traded to Detroit.  

 

One bad year that was nearly three yearsin the rear-view for Verlander when he was traded.

 

Bumgarner has had an 84 ERA+ over the past three years from Age 30-32.  That's only 65 starts because of 2020, but its still a lot of body of work.  Fair to wonder if its just new scenery and if he can recover elsewhere, but that's a very different set of circumstancesfor him compared to Verlander prior to his trade.  

 

So that's fair.  I wanted Verlander in 2017 and Steve and I had the conversation about JV being 'done'.  Verlander posted his best career season at 39 (OPS+ 220) 5 years later.  Verlander has been a better pitcher in his career (ERA+ 132) to MB (112) and JV has more in-season hardware.  MadBum has some reputation in the Playoffs, but again fair enough.

 

Allow me to re-frame it as a buy low opportunity to get a front of the rotation type arm, in the same way that Verlander was able to pitch well into his 30s.

[dude]

He's not a must, but he's also far from first one demoted to make room for a new guy. He also should be given the opportunity to stick in the rotation for this year and years to come unless he can be included in a trade that makes sense, so not this one.

 

So somewhere we have to make choices.

 

I like Means, GRod and Hall above all other pitchers we have or project to have.  We actually had them (and Kremer) before 2019.

 

I'm not hardup on the notion of Kremer.  I like Bradish better (I think he has better stuff) and I'd probably trust Tyler Wells a little more today, given the choice.

 

If we're going to argue nobody can be traded (if I had suggested Bradish, would the commentary trade the name Kremer for Bradish?) ok, then we are good for the rotation and nobody should be discussing fringe swap-outs.  You wanted Verlander (I'm not chasing career years at 40 with 50M, but he could have forced his way onto my roster for 135M) so sure Verlander takes someones spot, but someone is getting pushed out.

 

So realign the 2024 rotation with Kremer....

 

Means

GRod

Hall

Bradish

Kremer

 

...is that good enough?  Funny we had most of that in 2019.

 

The Orioles aren't paying anyone 20M AAV anytime soon, let alone 30M or 40M....so if you want to buy into some upside, you are going to have to buy low today.  Or not. 

 

My B+ offseason would have me trading Kremer in a package to the Brewers for Woodruff. 

I'd have traded Kremer last year in a package for Luis Castillo.

Always choices.

[mweb08]

I really can't believe this suggestion that Kremer would be demoted if they acquired Bumgarner. Kremer clearly slots ahead of the Wells/Voth/Hall trio, he should slot ahead of Bradish for the opening day rotation although I'd listen to opposing arguments, and while Grayson is very talented they could keep him in the minors to start for service time and/or innings cap reasons. Beyond all that, while Bumgarner and Gibson clearly wouldn't be sent to the minors, I'd rather have Kremer in the rotation than them.

[Nigel Tufnel]

The O's did make a trade today.  They got Ryan O'Hearn, who appears to be a poor man's Jim Traber, for cash.  He'd been DFA'd by KC.

 

Ryan O'Hearn Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

[mweb08]

I did want a high level starter or two added this offseason. One addition replaces Lyles. A second would replace Wells/Voth/Hall. I don't view Gibson or Bumgarner as high level starters although I'll grant you that Bumgarner intrigues me somewhat.

The 2 pitchers acquired would result in:

New Pitcher A
New Pitcher B
Kremer
Rodriguez
Bradish

Means at some point.

The trio of Voth, Wells, and Hall as SP depth and as upgrades to the pen (no Givens needed). Maybe Hall spends more time in the minors as well.

As far as making choices, well maybe. One or more of the 5 original starters would quite possibly get hurt or pitch poorly enough to make room for others. Hall is the only pitcher left out of the rotation that I'd be especially concerned about making a choice and I can get behind an argument to trade him or keep him in the pen without shutting the door on him getting starts in the future.

Now if the rotation looks strong 1-5 when Means comes back, well that's a great problem to have, but I'm not going to worry about having an overabundance of strong starter pitchers at this point. I think that may be an issue in the infield though with the glut of young talent there.

[DuffMan]

The O's did make a trade today.  They got Ryan O'Hearn, who appears to be a poor man's Jim Traber, for cash.  He'd been DFA'd by KC.

 

Ryan O'Hearn Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

[Slidemaster]

You can't play everyone. You have to make choices.

I absolutely 100% agree with this, but these guys need to be moved for true impact players.

[SonicAttack]

The O's did make a trade today.  They got Ryan O'Hearn, who appears to be a poor man's Jim Traber, for cash.  He'd been DFA'd by KC.

 

Ryan O'Hearn Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

 

 

Well there is the L handed power bat.  He just needs to deliver at the major level, hope he isn't an AAAA guy.  

[mweb08]

I absolutely 100% agree with this, but these guys need to be moved for true impact players.

Yes, trading Kremer for Bumgarner is not an especially likely upgrade and doesn't help the numbers game, which I don't think is much of an issue in the rotation this year or beyond anyway.

[BSLMikeLowe]

The O's did make a trade today.  They got Ryan O'Hearn, who appears to be a poor man's Jim Traber, for cash.  He'd been DFA'd by KC.

 

Ryan O'Hearn Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

 

Literally the guy who was replaced (on their 40-man) by Jordan Lyles. So they picked up KC's garbage, and paid them for the privilege.

[Mackus]

Well there is the L handed power bat.  He just needs to deliver at the major level, hope he isn't an AAAA guy.  

 

Sarcasm, right?  1000 PA in his career with a  <700 OPS.  Even his RHP splits aren't that good, 715 OPS.

 

Hopefully he doesn't make the team.

[dude]

The O's did make a trade today.  They got Ryan O'Hearn, who appears to be a poor man's Jim Traber, for cash.  He'd been DFA'd by KC.

 

I was going to push back on the Jim Trader part, then I went and reminded myself how bad he was.  

[BobPhelan]

MadBaum is toast, no interest there.

[dude]

MadBum is toast, no interest there.

 

I don't want to send you off to do homework, but why?  I don't use some of the resources enough to be fluid with them, but when I look at his fastball V it looks fairly consistent since 2016. (edit, I think I should have said 2016 here, not 2015)

 

The results have been poor since 2020.  2020 was a disaster, but lots of things were (big velo drop that year).  2021 and 2022 were poor.   So he went from one of the best pitchers in MLB in 2019 (at 29) to being toast 3 years later (at 32).  Kyle Gibson has a fraction of the track record that MadBum has but at 35, we see something to really hit on?

 

No chance the dramatic change in results (from 30-32) were a function of the new circumstances in AZ?

[BobPhelan]

I don't want to send you off to do homework, but why?  I don't use some of the resources enough to be fluid with them, but when I look at his fastball V it looks fairly consistent since 2015.

 

The results have been poor since 2020.  2020 was a disaster, but lots of things were (big velo drop that year).  2021 and 2022 were poor.   So he went from one of the best pitchers in MLB in 2019 (at 29) to being toast 3 years later (at 32).  Kyle Gibson has a fraction of the track record that MadBum has but at 35, we see something to really hit on?

 

No chance the dramatic change in results (from 30-32) were a function of the new circumstances in AZ?

 

Just look at his Baseball Savant page: https://baseballsava...-r-pitching-mlb

[dude]

Just look at his Baseball Savant page:

 

I got it, he's been bad the last 3 years and his percentile ranking mostly suck (not fastball spin, but other than that)...but that's just trends.  What speaks to causality in there.  Do we know why the results are worse.  I get the stuff ticks down in places, but you don't think there could be a reason for that?

 

Why can we only fix guys that lack front end Talent....why can't we fix the guys with front end Talent to get back to being That Guy or better.

[dude]

In this scenario (in which I'm probably going too far and giving up too much), we'd pay him...

 

2023: Age 33 -  0M

2024: Age 34 - 10M

2025: Age 35 - 10M

 

In 2023, we're paying Kyle Gibson Age 35 - 10M....and he's RHed.

 

MadBum's expected HRs goes down to 21 (I understand that number isn't correct, that's "every" HR) and 4 of the better HR parks for him are in the AL.  He gets away from the history with the Giants, Dodgers, gets away from Coors (some of his worst parks)....

[dude]

Just look at his Baseball Savant page: https://baseballsava...-r-pitching-mlb

 

When you look at Kyle Gibson's Baseball Savant page....do you think it's any better?  Almost the whole thing is blue for his whole career.  I'm not beating him up, it is what it is.

 

How is MadBum toast, but Gibson (who is older) is not toast.

 

Again, if they see something in him they like, awesome, they can own that, but they never fix better players.