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One trade today


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#1 dude

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 11:22 AM

This is TLDR, so just skip to the bolded for the cliff notes version below...

 

You fight from the foxhole you're in.  I've mentioned this generically before but if I got to make one trade today, I'd look at Madison Bumgarner.

 

Bumgarner is owed 37M over the next 2 years and honestly he hasn't been that good since he went to AZ.  I don't know why that is.  HIs struggles have coincided with a change in teams.  Whatever it is, he used to be one of the dominant pitchers in the sport.  Now he's not.  Many want to sign Justin Verlander, but there was a time in 2017 where many thought Justin Verlander was done at 34.  MadBum is 33.

 

It's funny how we'll all joke about investment advise and say "buy low, sell high" as if that's hyper-obvious, but we typically find ourselves in the baseball arena avoiding low and buying high.  Everyone wanted to bribe Verlander with 45M AAV and he's now 40.

 

The Orioles have also, understandably, been looking for a LHed 1B/DH type.  You have a numbers game with the current roster (we'll solve that in a minute) but an option for that could be AZ 1B/DH/OF Pavin Smith.  Smith was the 1-7 pick in the 2017 draft and is from FL and went to UVA.  He hasn't really developed significantly in AZ and given their roster, they've moved him around in to the OF.  He has a year+ (1.149) of service and will qualify for Super 2 in 2024.  He's struggled against LHers (.608 OPS) so he's more of a versatile 1B/DH left-handed bat.  Kind of a left-handed Mancini.

 

Orioles get: Mason Saunders and Pavin Smith

 

I think the MLB Trade Sim is fun, but generally wrong, but I still put things into it, just to see what it says.  It has those 2 guys at -33. Basically is views MadBum as an underwater contract. Smith is 0.

 

I'm replacing a starter and my #5 is Kremer, so I put Kremer in the deal. AZ could also use a 3B prospect to pair with Jordan Lawler on the left side so I'm including Westburg too (that sets up Norby for 2024 at 2B).

 

Westburg and Kremer for Bumgarner and Smith is way under-water for the Orioles.  Like Lawler or Corbin Carroll underwater.  They aren't trading any of those guys to offset anything because they don't need to.  Orioles are more concerned about cost-risk anyway so let's take 25M on Bumgarner, the DBacks CompB pick and 2 guys outside their top 20 like LHP Nate Savino and RHP Conor Grammes.

 

So...

BAL gets: MadBum, Smith, 25M, CompB (2-64), Savino and Grammes

AZ gets: Kremer and Westburg 

 

------------------------

 

Couple more things (more TLDR). 

 

1) MadBum is the only lefty in the AZ rotation and they still have a ridiculous surplus of OFers so they make a trade with the Marlins: LHP Trevor Rogers for CF Alek Thomas.  That is a couple guys with good profiles that have under-performed some but are both still young and meet the needs of the respective teams better.  Miami gets a true (young) CF and deals from their stable of pitching depth.

 

2) It wouldn't be an under-water cost trade from me without a contract restructure.  I don't know MadBum, but it's interesting to me that his ranch is actually in Lenoir, NC (with his in-laws).  He's from just south of Lenoir, in Hudson so it's likely both their families are from (and currently) there..  The horse ranch he owns in AZ is likely a product of his time in SF.  You can move the horses to the East Coast.  Rope anywhere in the offseason.  He just may like the move to the East Coast to finish his career.

 

I'd look to add 1/13 to his contract.  That takes it from 2/37 to 3/50.  Structure is 15/15/15 with a 5M buyout on a 2/35 team option.  The 25M that AZ contributes covers 15M in 2023 (so Orioles cost is $0) and 5M in 2024 and 2025 so from the Orioles perspective, the costs are 0/10/10/5 (2/35 team option).

 

MadBum gets to finish his career on the East Coast, lead a young staff, pitch into that LF canyon with a young defensive team behind him and you are committing to him leading a young staff.  His wife would likely be psyched by the idea and if he's from NC, he may even have grown up an Orioles or Braves fan (ok, probably Yankees).

 

You don't have to do this, but you want to buy into the turn-around (imagine getting a 2/35 option with a Verlander trade when he was scuffling in 2017).

 

3) While I'm a fan of Stowers, he's a poor fit if Cowser is my next LFer so I'll follow-up something with a second trade. I mentioned this in the Hosmer thread, but will expand here.

 

DET gets: Stowers and Urias

BAL gets: Schoop (1/7.5)

 

Again, the Orioles are WELL underwater on this so we need some compensation....Orioles get prospects C Dillon Dingler and RHP Tyler Mattison, their CompA (1-37) and 4M on Schoop.

 

So...

DET gets: Stowers and Urias

BAL gets: Schoop, Dingler, Mattison, CompA and 4M

 

Could be something of a homecoming for Jon and honestly, I'd love to form a bench over the next couple years with Frazier and Schoop.

 

Rollup

traded Westburg, Stowers, Kremer, Urias

added MadBum, Smith, Schoop, future b/u C, 3 bullpen arms, 2 draft picks and no short term cost risk 

 

Hays goes to LF, Santander to RF, Smith 1B/DH platoon with McCann and MadBum vs Kremer.



#2 Mackus

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 11:24 AM

Can you just make a proposal for Bumgarner and drop everything else?  Its confusing otherwise even with the summary.


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#3 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 11:32 AM

I'm honestly not sure Bumgarner is any better then Tyler Wells.  

Zero interest in trading Kremer and Westburg for him. 


Can start the year with Gibson, Rodriguez, Kremer, Bradish, and Wells... with Hall, and Means having a chance to help during the year.... and Voth, Watkins, Baumann available as spot starters...  

If I'm trading for someone now, I'm trading for someone that's a definitive front-end starter. 


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#4 Mike B

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 11:33 AM

I think, the only way the Orioles get a good starter is through a trade.  Frankly I think Elias is going to over pay for someone like Pablo Lopez,   But I would be interested to see if Mad Bum could recover some of his magic, as long as we do not give up too much to entice Arizona to pay most of his contract.


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#5 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 12:01 PM

Bumgarner looks to be quite bad without digging deep into his analytics. Arizona tenure has been a disaster. If you wanted him and the 2/37mil left on his deal for whatever reason you could trade him for a PTBNL or a scratch off ticket to be named by Phelan. Thats the easy, logical route to acquiring Bumgarner

#6 dude

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 12:56 PM

I'm honestly not sure Bumgarner is any better then Tyler Wells. 

.....

If I'm trading for someone now, I'm trading for someone that's a definitive front-end starter. 

 

So sure, you want to buy high.  There are very good current performers like Luis Castillo and Brandon Woodruff we could already have on the roster...would make this point meaningless.

 

...but you're buying high.  After the 2019 season, MadBum was regarded as one of the best Big Game pitchers in the sport. Something is obviously different in the current results.  Maybe he was disappointed he didn't get what he wanted or where he wanted in FA.  Maybe the Mason Saunders revelation caused some other issue.  He's had another sketchy (4-wheeler?) injury concern.

 

....but if I wanted to buy low on a left-hander with a chance to bounce back to the hammer he used to be (we talk about guys at 40, we signed a guy that's 35) at 33...Madison Bumgarner would be my target.  I can buy high on other guys.  Make a crazy play for Fried....but if the situation (left-field, defense, pitching help) can get him right, he's (IMO) the best guy out there to buy low. 



#7 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:02 PM

So sure, you want to buy high.  There are very good current performers like Luis Castillo and Brandon Woodruff we could already have on the roster...would make this point meaningless.

 

...but you're buying high.  After the 2019 season, MadBum was regarded as one of the best Big Game pitchers in the sport. Something is obviously different in the current results.  Maybe he was disappointed he didn't get what he wanted or where he wanted in FA.  Maybe the Mason Saunders revelation caused some other issue.  He's had another sketchy (4-wheeler?) injury concern.

 

....but if I wanted to buy low on a left-hander with a chance to bounce back to the hammer he used to be (we talk about guys at 40, we signed a guy that's 35) at 33...Madison Bumgarner would be my target.  I can buy high on other guys.  Make a crazy play for Fried....but if the situation (left-field, defense, pitching help) can get him right, he's (IMO) the best guy out there to buy low. 


If you want to buy low, you don't give up Kremer's and Westburg's years of control for him. 

There is a legitimate question at this point of if he (Bumgarner) has anything left. 

I wasn't kidding when I said I'm not sure he's any better than Wells at this point.



#8 dude

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:04 PM

Can start the year with Gibson, Rodriguez, Kremer, Bradish, and Wells... with Hall, and Means having a chance to help during the year.... and Voth, Watkins, Baumann available as spot starters...  

 

So all this is about is trying to buy a big game lefty.  We want to be in the playoffs.  You want Big Game experience.

 

You are essentially swapping Kremer for Bumgarner in the rotation.  For me, Wells is already in the bullpen.  I'd still tandem Voth and Hall for this season to manage innings, but you could still put TWells in there instead of Voth, Voth in the bullpen and Hall at AAA where I still think they'll mess up the innings (like GRod last year...you have to build in controls)

 

Bumgarner

Gibson

GRod

Bradish

TWells

 

BP/Voth

AAA/Hall

IL/Means 



#9 Mackus

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:05 PM

I'd gamble on Bumgarner over Wacha or any of the other available FA SP that are left (or would've liked him as the 2nd addition behind a stud instead of Gibson).  I would put some faith in the player scouting department that if they took him on, they thought there was a chance to find something they can fix.  So I guess that its less so that I would've identified Bumgarner as a candidate as much as I'd be intrigued if the O's management did identify him as a candidate and made it happen.

 

But still think it'd be a terrible offseason to end up with only Gibson and Bumgarner as your rotation additions.  

 

And if you do want him at all, everyone else who makes the obvious comment that you simply take whatever part of his contract you have to and don't give anyone up is clearly correct. Selling Westburg and Kremer for $25M and a day 2 pick is a very bad idea.



#10 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:11 PM

Can start the year with Gibson, Rodriguez, Kremer, Bradish, and Wells... with Hall, and Means having a chance to help during the year.... and Voth, Watkins, Baumann available as spot starters...  

 

I think they have already told us without telling us that this is the plan. Only possible difference is that I don't think Rodriguez is a lock for the OD roster and could be service-timed. 2023 is another developmental year. Maybe it includes the playoffs, maybe it doesn't. But no matter the results they will not go off-script.



#11 dude

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:14 PM

I would put some faith in the player scouting department that if they took him on, they thought there was a chance to find something they can fix.  So I guess that its less so that I would've identified Bumgarner as a candidate as much as I'd be intrigued if the O's management did identify him as a candidate and made it happen.

 

I don't say this, but in literally everything I suggest, I would certainly defer to this position.  We certainly don't know everything (we know most things) and I'm always comfortable moving on with reasonable reasons.

 

...but I am not backed by a ML staff sitting at my computer, so I'm just looking at the things we know (80-90%) and targeting reasonable design to develop opportunities on an Orioles message board.



#12 dude

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:16 PM

If you want to buy low, you don't give up Kremer's and Westburg's years of control for him. 

 

You can't play everyone.  You have to make choices.



#13 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:18 PM

You can't play everyone.  You have to make choices.

 

Well my choice is I want Kremer in my rotation, and Westburg at 2nd.  And I'm not totally convinced Westburg doesn't come North with the team out of Spring Training, but assuming he does go back to AAA, I think he'll be up by June. 



#14 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:20 PM

I'd gamble on Bumgarner over Wacha or any of the other available FA SP that are left (or would've liked him as the 2nd addition behind a stud instead of Gibson).  I would put some faith in the player scouting department that if they took him on, they thought there was a chance to find something they can fix.  So I guess that its less so that I would've identified Bumgarner as a candidate as much as I'd be intrigued if the O's management did identify him as a candidate and made it happen.

 

But still think it'd be a terrible offseason to end up with only Gibson and Bumgarner as your rotation additions.  

 

And if you do want him at all, everyone else who makes the obvious comment that you simply take whatever part of his contract you have to and don't give anyone up is clearly correct. Selling Westburg and Kremer for $25M and a day 2 pick is a very bad idea.

Id take Wacha and whatever it takes to get him over Bumgarner 2/37. Also  betting on Kremer vs Bumgarner. Dont get the logic of replacing Kremer with Bumgarner.



#15 dude

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:23 PM

Can you just make a proposal for Bumgarner and drop everything else?  Its confusing otherwise even with the summary.

 

There's often a consequence to a move.  I don't think it's just one add.  Maybe you could just do a similar thing with the McCann trade, but you still start pushing guys and playing time around.  The numbers don't work and you may not care if you force a guy a guy like Kremer to AAA, but I guarantee you he cares.  And not in a good way.  In sort of a F-you way.

 

In the McCann trade, we clearly left value on the table.  The Mets are paying almost 2 for 1 on thier dollars right now, so there's room to be creative, if you wanted to.  Orioles still took the position of minimizing 2023 payroll, which should continue to tell us something.

 

When I walk through the pieces of doing something like this, I wind up where I suggested.  More than one move.



#16 NewMarketSean

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:25 PM

Looking over the A's roster, they're a bad team with not a lot of players under 28.

 

Cole Irvin is 29, threw 180 IP last 2 seasons and has had a 4.24 and 3.98 ERA over that span. Granted he gets hit a lot, but he doesn't walk batters. HR rate is good but playing in Oakland probably helps and we have the new LF wall.

 

Could be a potential trading partner...get the A's younger with a pair of prospects and get us a P who would probably be the most reliable P and second-best P on our roster.


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#17 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:26 PM

Kremer wouldnt be forced to AAA if for whatever reason we acquired Bumgarner for peanuts. GRod would start the year in AAA or Wells would be pushed into the pen where he's likely going to end up anyway. Kremer has 100% earned a rotation spot if he is in the organization come OD. 

 

 

If Bradish and Kremer are here in April and healthy they will be in the rotation. You can book it no matter what else happens the rest of the offseason.



#18 JeremyStrain

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:30 PM

Well my choice is I want Kremer in my rotation, and Westburg at 2nd.  And I'm not totally convinced Westburg doesn't come North with the team out of Spring Training, but assuming he does go back to AAA, I think he'll be up by June. 


More difficult choice. Westburg or Norby?


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#19 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:31 PM

Looking over the A's roster, they're a bad team with not a lot of players under 28.

 

Cole Irvin is 29, threw 180 IP last 2 seasons and has had a 4.24 and 3.98 ERA over that span. Granted he gets hit a lot, but he doesn't walk batters. HR rate is good but playing in Oakland probably helps and we have the new LF wall.

 

Could be a potential trading partner...get the A's younger with a pair of prospects and get us a P who would probably be the most reliable P and second-best P on our roster.

 

Its a year or two too early for Oak to have much if any interest in moving Irvin. '24 is his Arb 1 year. They will wait him out and hope he raises his value the next year or two.



#20 dude

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Posted 03 January 2023 - 01:32 PM

Well my choice is I want Kremer in my rotation, and Westburg at 2nd.  And I'm not totally convinced Westburg doesn't come North with the team out of Spring Training, but assuming he does go back to AAA, I think he'll be up by June. 

 

I've constantly argued for Westburg and Kremer.

 

I don't know how the Frazier signing (for 8M!!!) isn't telling Westburg to go to AAA.  You still have Urias.  Norby is going to be 2B at AAA so I'm not sure what we're doing with Vavra....seems like a guy without a home now and they did that intentionally (that was a choice).

 

Bumgarner's ceiling is a younger left-handed Verlander.  You can't wait to buy high.






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