109 replies to this topic

[mweb08]

Certainly could be true.

But it also may not be...won't know until April/May.

So far, this team is averaging more points than last years team. They are giving up the same amount of points. Their FG% is up while their FG% defense is the same. Their 3pt% is way up, 3pt% def is the same. Turnovers are the same, both ways. Rebounding% is essentially the same but their rebounding is down a little more than 1 per game.

So, offense is up, def is the same and rebounding is barely down.

Edit: assists are also way up.

Even if the Thunder win it all, that won't mean that they wouldn't have been better with Harden.

I've already pointed out that the comparison of this years team vs last year isn't particularly relevant regarding this trade. If the Thunder had Harden instead of Martin, their numbers would have been better too, because you know, they would have 3 top 20 players in the league plus Ibaka at age 24 or younger and guys at that age normally get better.

[SportsGuy]

Even if the Thunder win it all, that won't mean that they wouldn't have been better with Harden.

I've already pointed out that the comparison of this years team vs last year isn't particularly relevant regarding this trade. If the Thunder had Harden instead of Martin, their numbers would have been better too, because you know, they would have 3 top 20 players in the league plus Ibaka at age 24 or younger and guys at that age normally get better.

So, the stats could better and they could win the title and you will still say that this trade mde them worse?

Ummm...when someone wants to ignore those types of things, the topic isn't worth discussing anymore.

[mweb08]

So, the stats could better and they could win the title and you will still say that this trade mde them worse?

Ummm...when someone wants to ignore those types of things, the topic isn't worth discussing anymore.

Yes, it's not worth discussing this with someone who doesn't get incredibly simple concepts like:

- A team with very young elite talent should get better the next season

- That a team should be stronger with the superior player who fits the team better (and no one is arguing those points)

- That even if a team wins a title that doesn't mean they couldn't have been a better team

[SportsGuy]

Yes, it's not worth discussing this with someone who doesn't get incredibly simple concepts like:

- A team with very young elite talent should get better the next season

- That a team should be stronger with the superior player who fits the team better (and no one is arguing those points)

- That even if a team wins a title that doesn't mean they couldn't have been a better team

Sure, that's all possible.

But you and others said this was a bad trade for right now...well, if they still win it all and/or are still better on the court vs last year, then your assessment of the deal would be wrong.

[mweb08]

Sure, that's all possible.

But you and others said this was a bad trade for right now...well, if they still win it all and/or are still better on the court vs last year, then your assessment of the deal would be wrong.

I've shown multiple times how it doesn't make sense to compare last year to this year. Obviously you aren't going to get that though. I'll continue to compare how they would be this year with Harden vs how they are this year with Martin.

If they win the title this year, it will show that they got away with weakening their roster this year and it will have shown to be a smart gamble, for this year at least. Martin will then be a FA and we'll see what they do with the money saved and the picks as well as how Lamb does.

The only real thing I have gotten on you for is saying that this deal doesn't weaken the current team. I strongly disagree, but acknowledge they still have a decent shot at the title.

[mweb08]

Also Rob, I know in baseball that you really like to evaluate a trade at the time it's made more so than judging the merits of it based on what happens later. Is that right? Like if Dana Eveland turned out to be really good, somehow I don't think you would have recanted your criticisms.

Well if a team makes a deal that decreases their odds of winning a title from lets say 30% to 20%, that's what goes into the evaluation of the trade when it's made.

[SportsGuy]

Also Rob, I know in baseball that you really like to evaluate a trade at the time it's made more so than judging the merits of it based on what happens later. Is that right? Like if Dana Eveland turned out to be really good, somehow I don't think you would have recanted your criticisms.

Well if a team makes a deal that decreases their odds of winning a title from lets say 30% to 20%, that's what goes into the evaluation of the trade when it's made.

That's assuming you agree the trade weakens the team.

I wasn't convinced that it did weaken them. This is a better team as currently constructed than it was at the end last year. Would they be better with Harden? Perhaps...but that's not showing in the standings or the stat sheets.

[mweb08]

That's assuming you agree the trade weakens the team.

I wasn't convinced that it did weaken them. This is a better team as currently constructed than it was at the end last year. Would they be better with Harden? Perhaps...but that's not showing in the standings or the stat sheets.

It doesn't matter at all if it's a better team than it was last year. Not one bit when it comes to evaluating this trade. I really don't understand how you're not getting that. I know that's a concept you would get if it were Orioles related.

Who is the better player between Harden and Martin?

The answer to that is obvious and that's how it shows they would be better with Harden in the department of common sense.

[SportsGuy]

It doesn't matter at all if it's a better team than it was last year. Not one bit when it comes to evaluating this trade. I really don't understand how you're not getting that. I know that's a concept you would get if it were Orioles related.

Who is the better player between Harden and Martin?

The answer to that is obvious and that's how it shows they would be better with Harden in the department of common sense.

Harden is he better player if an offense runs through him and he can be an AS unlike Martin. IE, if they were both focal points, I would expect Harden to be better...but neither is in this role.

But as a bench guy, Martin can put up similar stats..which he has done. His PER, a stat you always point to, is almost the same as Harden's.

[mweb08]

Harden is he better player if an offense runs through him and he can be an AS unlike Martin. IE, if they were both focal points, I would expect Harden to be better...but neither is in this role.

But as a bench guy, Martin can put up similar stats..which he has done. His PER, a stat you always point to, is almost the same as Harden's.

Harden sometimes was the focal point with OKC as he would play as Durant and Westbrook rested. He also took over PG duties at times, which Martin can't really do.

Martin's PER this year is 18.2, Harden last year was at a 21.13 and this year is at 19.98.

So Harden has the better numbers and he's also the better defender.

Another thing with PER is that Harden's PER may slip some this year because the lack of talent around him and the amount of attention he gets. So it's not totally fair to compare their PER this year without at least considering the context. Just like it wouldn't be totally fair to compare Martin's per game numbers to Harden's. I think what makes the most sense is comparing what Martin does this year to what Harden did last year while realizing that Harden would have likely taken another positive step production wise if he stayed with the Thunder, because that's how his career has progressed and he's only 23.

[mweb08]

This article which I don't believe even mentions Martin does a lot to explain the improvements by the Thunder this year: http://www.grantland... ... oing-to-be

One key takeaway:

Even more remarkable: The Thunder starting lineup is actually functioning offensively! It is officially more watchable than a Tayshaun Prince isolation! The starting five has so far scored 106.7 points per 100 possessions, below the Thunder’s sterling overall mark, but still the equivalent of a top-five scoring rate. Even more shocking: This five has assisted on 63.9 percent of their made baskets, better than the Thunder’s overall mark and just about equal to Boston’s assist rate — the second-highest in the league.

It’s hard to overstate what a massive turnaround this is. The Thunder’s starting five has long been miserable to watch, and last season assisted on just 45.8 percent of baskets — significantly below the Thunder’s miserable (and dead-last) overall number.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Geez guys, neither of you is going to have anything left to talk about for the podcast.

[SportsGuy]

Geez guys, neither of you is going to have anything left to talk about for the podcast.

This isn't even worth discussing during the podcast...what happens in April/May is what matters.

I stand by what i said...great trade long term and their title hopes took little to no hit.

[mweb08]

This isn't even worth discussing during the podcast...what happens in April/May is what matters.

I stand by what i said...great trade long term and their title hopes took little to no hit.

There are no smart basketball people who agree with the latter.

[mweb08]

So if the Thunder win the title, SG, you think you'll be right, and if they lose you think you'll be wrong? Is it that simple for you?

[SportsGuy]

So if the Thunder win the title, SG, you think you'll be right, and if they lose you think you'll be wrong? Is it that simple for you?

They don't need to win the title IMO...they need to get at least to the conference finals though.

Before he season, I felt the Lakers would be the better team.

But the time the playoffs come around, I'm not convinced that is wrong to think despite their struggles.

But if OKC fails to get to at least the conference finals, then yes, I will have been wrong about the trade in terms of the short term. Either way, I still make that deal if I were OKC.

Btw, Lamb was just set to the d league...I did think he would help them this year..no sign of that right now.

[mweb08]

So if they get to the conference finals, that automatically means your position was right?

And yeah, if Lamb was giving them something, maybe you'd have a point.

But when it just comes down to Harden (Cook, Aldrich too but not important) vs Martin, that's not much of a contest. Martin is a good stop gag to help them continue to compete, but he's still a drop-off.

[SportsGuy]

So if they get to the conference finals, that automatically means your position was right?
.

I don't think anyone is right or wrong here because there is no right or wrong answer. You said yourself, even if they win the title, you will think you are right...that proves it right there.

They could have kept Harden and lost in the first round of the playoffs...you just never know..and we never will know.

[mweb08]

I don't think anyone is right or wrong here because there is no right or wrong answer. You said yourself, even if they win the title, you will think you are right...that proves it right there.

They could have kept Harden and lost in the first round of the playoffs...you just never know..and we never will know.

There is a right answer here. Harden is definitively the better player so he gives the Thunder the best chance at winning this year. We don't need to see what happens in the playoffs to know that the better player gives them the better chance at winning, that's just common sense. If Martin was a better fit for the Thunder, then there would be more of a debate, but that's not the case.

Even Sam Presti, the guy who made the trade isn't as bullish on Martin vs Harden as you seem to be.

[mweb08]

The real debates, and by that, I mean the ones where there are two logical sides of the argument, are:

- Should the Thunder have bitten the bullet and just paid Harden?
- Should the Thunder have chosen Harden over Ibaka?
- Should the Thunder have chosen Harden over Westbrook?

I'd say yes to the first one, which makes the others invalid. I would not have chosen Harden over Westbrook.

The Ibaka question is interesting. Harden is the better player imo, but he needs the ball quite a bit to be effective and is a perimeter player like the other two Thunder stars. Ibaka complements the other plays better simply because of his defense/rebounding as well as his lack of needing the ball. He also has tremendous potential.