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2022 Game 4: 10/2 Buffalo 1PM


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#801 Bmore Irish

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:27 PM

Hamilton was definitely active and on the field. He had tight coverage on an incomplete 3rd down in the first half.

 

It was a play where the ball got tipped at the line so he got physical and legally mugged the receiver. I'm sure he was involved in other plays but that's the one that stands out to me.



#802 mdrunning

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:28 PM

Just finished paying my estimated taxes. Christ, that was more painful than today's game.


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#803 You Play to Win the Game

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:34 PM

Hamilton was definitely active and on the field. He had tight coverage on an incomplete 3rd down in the first half.

It was a play where the ball got tipped at the line so he got physical and legally mugged the receiver. I'm sure he was involved in other plays but that's the one that stands out to me.

Didn’t register anything in the box score. Interested to see his snap count. I do remember that play though now that you mention it.

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#804 mdrunning

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:38 PM

Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought he was inactive for today. Don't ever remember hearing his name called, and I did see where they had signed CB Kevon Seymour to the active roster for today. I don't believe he cracked the box score, either.



#805 hallas

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:41 PM


You're missing the point. It's not that the play they ran couldn't have worked. It's that, yes, there absolutely was a better play that would've given the offense a better chance from 2 yards out.

Other teams run them pretty regularly. The Ravens have run them often in the first half of this season already. Teams literally dedicate practice time to perfecting these very plays.

If anyone here has ever played Madden, you'll recognize this play as Spot. A triangle read to the right with a corner, flat and spot route, the latter two being well covered.

They motioned the back out to a backside slant. From 2 yards out. No rollout or playaction fake or moving the pocket for Lamar. No real run threat on a straight drop.

If Roman already used all of his best short yardage plays from "the vault" earlier in the game, then they should've kicked the FG.

Find me a play that's going to work when 3 out of 5 linemen fail to do their job despite having numbers.

If 1 of those 3 linemen do anything it's a touchdown. If Faalele forces his rusher to the inside, Lamar sidesteps to the left, Powers can help vs the rusher, and Lamar throws it to Davis for a TD. If Powers engages the left end laterally then Lamar has a running lane up the gut and probably scores. If Moses blocks his guy then Lamar rolls to the right and chucks it to Duvernay.

#806 mdrunning

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:43 PM

Yep, I did see Hamilton in one highlight on Buffalo's second possession. My bad.



#807 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:50 PM

Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought he was inactive for today. Don't ever remember hearing his name called, and I did see where they had signed CB Kevon Seymour to the active roster for today. I don't believe he cracked the box score, either.

Your overall point has some validity. Queen is a disaster. Ill somewhat a little excuse that since it was the '20 draft and there wasnt much of the normal predraft evaluating  stuff you could do. Hamilton doesnt give me the warm and fuzzies thats for sure. Oweh and Bateman at least flash. At worst I think Oweh, Bateman, and Linderbaum are solid guys. Nothing special but solid. IMO the problem with Queen and Hamilton is they play non premium positions. If you are going to draft a S and an ILB in the first 25 picks you need them to be studs because other teams arent paying the premium price on those positions and are getting as good or better production than the Ravens.


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#808 cprenegade

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:56 PM

The Hamilton situation might be a window into what is actually part of the problem with the defense.  There is some high draft pick talent out there that is not living up to it's draft position.   And even some mid round picks that are either gone or aren't producing.  

 

2018 - Round 4 pick Kenny Young, LB, not on team

2019 - Round 3 pick Jaylon Ferguson, LB, deceased

           Round 4 pick Iman Marshall, CB, not on the team

2020 - FIRST ROUND, Patrick Queen,LB, not living up to pick status

           Round 3 pick Justin Madibuike, DT, on the team and playing well

2021 - FIRST ROUND, Odafe Oweh, Edge, on the team, disappointing so far this year

           Round 3 pick, Brandon Stephens, CB, on the team, I think his play has been inconsistent but not a washout

2022 - FIRST ROUND, Kyle Hamilton, Safety, on the team, not living up to first round status (way too early to call bust)

           Round 2 pick, David Ojabo, Edge, on the team, injured

           Round 3 pick Travis Jones, DT, on the team, haven't seen much from him so far but he's also been hurt.

 

When you look at that, there are 3 straight first round picks that aren't doing a whole lot to help with the defensive problems.  Too early to give up on Hamilton and Oweh, but you would hope your first round picks can contribute in year one and certainly in year two.  So the big question is are some of these bad picks, are they not being developed, or are they not being used correctly?  You would certainly think that with 3 straight first round picks being used on defensive players the defense should not be a soft as it is.  



#809 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:57 PM

Your overall point has some validity. Queen is a disaster. Ill somewhat a little excuse that since it was the '20 draft and there wasnt much of the normal predraft evaluating  stuff you could do. Hamilton doesnt give me the warm and fuzzies thats for sure. Oweh and Bateman at least flash. At worst I think Oweh, Bateman, and Linderbaum are solid guys. Nothing special but solid. IMO the problem with Queen and Hamilton is they play non premium positions. If you are going to draft a S and an ILB in the first 25 picks you need them to be studs because other teams arent paying the premium price on those positions and are getting as good or better production than the Ravens.

This brings me to a youtube video I saw in the offseason. Right after the draft. THe creator was praising the Ravens for being forward thinking and ahead of the curve for paying money to and drafting WIlliams and Hamilton. Saying the Ravens were spending on elite talent at what he thinks is an undervalued position of S while oher teams are spending those resources at WR, pass rush, CB. He thought is was a coup. Well the problem is Hamilton has to be that stud you think he was when drafted. Williams has to be that stud S. Otherwise you look foolish. Now, I do like WIlliams. and Hamilton is obviously young but  not seeing the opposing QB pressured and not seeing an explosive WR running past guys like Waddle and Hill it def makes you think how much praise the Ravens should get.



#810 hallas

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:58 PM

The Hamilton situation might be a window into what is actually part of the problem with the defense. There is some high draft pick talent out there that is not living up to it's draft position. And even some mid round picks that are either gone or aren't producing.

2018 - Round 4 pick Kenny Young, LB, not on team
2019 - Round 3 pick Jaylon Ferguson, LB, deceased
Round 4 pick Iman Marshall, CB, not on the team
2020 - FIRST ROUND, Patrick Queen,LB, not living up to pick status
Round 3 pick Justin Madibuike, DT, on the team and playing well
2021 - FIRST ROUND, Odafe Oweh, Edge, on the team, disappointing so far this year
Round 3 pick, Brandon Stephens, CB, on the team, I think his play has been inconsistent but not a washout
2022 - FIRST ROUND, Kyle Hamilton, Safety, on the team, not living up to first round status (way too early to call bust)
Round 2 pick, David Ojabo, Edge, on the team, injured
Round 3 pick Travis Jones, DT, on the team, haven't seen much from him so far but he's also been hurt.

When you look at that, there are 3 straight first round picks that aren't doing a whole lot to help with the defensive problems. Too early to give up on Hamilton and Oweh, but you would hope your first round picks can contribute in year one and certainly in year two. So the big question is are some of these bad picks, are they not being developed, or are they not being used correctly? You would certainly think that with 3 straight first round picks being used on defensive players the defense should not be a soft as it is.

Hamilton has played well the last two games IMO despite not getting that many snaps. He's really good in coverage against TEs and slot receivers. He's not really a ball hawk, but we have Marcus Williams for that.
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#811 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:58 PM

The fact that he mentioned trusting the defense, and having faith in them, tells me that Peters and possibly other defensive players let him have it in the locker room. He went out of his way to say he trusted the defense multiple times in his answers.

Really hope there isn't an over-correction now. Sometimes you need to go for it. But I'll be damned if it doesn't seem like every time he goes for it on 4th down late in the game, or for a 2 point conversion to win, we never convert. You would think past success rate would come in to play when they run their analytical models.


That’s the flaw. They never look at their own success rate. The models are based on every play in the history of football (or at least maybe modern history). The probability of winning the game based on every other team ever in situation X.

Teams that lead by 3 with 4 minutes to play and the opponent starting on their own 25 win x% of the time.
Teams that lead by 7 with 4 minutes to play and the opponent starting on their own 25 win x% of time.
Teams that are tied with 4 minutes to go and the opponent takes over on their own 4 yard line win x% of the time.

If the % difference is bigger from 3pt lead to 7pt lead than tied to 3pt lead, the Ivy leaguer in the booth tells Harbaugh they could benefit from going for it. Zero other variables involved.

It’s a tool, but Harbaugh is a slave to it apparently. That’s not using the tool properly. The tool doesn’t take anything else into account. The coach should.
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#812 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:59 PM

I cant remember where I saw it, probably skimming twitter, I did see that someone posted something about Oweh and him getting more pressure than it looks like just casually watching or looking for sacks. Kinda how his career at Penn St was. 



#813 cprenegade

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 09:09 PM

That’s the flaw. They never look at their own success rate. The models are based on every play in the history of football (or at least maybe modern history). The probability of winning the game based on every other team ever in situation X.

Teams that lead by 3 with 4 minutes to play and the opponent starting on their own 25 win x% of the time.
Teams that lead by 7 with 4 minutes to play and the opponent starting on their own 25 win x% of time.
Teams that are tied with 4 minutes to go and the opponent takes over on their own 4 yard line win x% of the time.

If the % difference is bigger from 3pt lead to 7pt lead than tied to 3pt lead, the Ivy leaguer in the booth tells Harbaugh they could benefit from going for it. Zero other variables involved.

It’s a tool, but Harbaugh is a slave to it apparently. That’s not using the tool properly. The tool doesn’t take anything else into account. The coach should.

 

I've been saying this for a long time.  Analytics work great in gambling and in the stock market.  If you consistently play percentages, over the long haul you will be a winner.  But the best coaches in football rely on instincts to guide their decisions and use the analytics to help make decsions, they do not simply follow a sheet and take the option with the highest percentage.  If it were that easy a laptop program could make every call and render the need for coaches obsolete.  


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#814 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 09:14 PM

My other question is this and its hard to know for sure. How much of it is players not being talented enough and therefore "busts" or disappointments vs player development. I just think of all the talent that went through the Os system for so so many years that never amounted to much in Baltimore and wonder how much of their potential could they have unleashed in another organization or if they had been here under the Elias regime. IM not saying they all are going to be stars but player development is a real thing in every pro sport. How good are these coaches on this staff of coaching players up. My sense is not that good for most of the units.


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#815 Mackus

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 09:21 PM

That’s the flaw. They never look at their own success rate. The models are based on every play in the history of football (or at least maybe modern history). The probability of winning the game based on every other team ever in situation X.

Teams that lead by 3 with 4 minutes to play and the opponent starting on their own 25 win x% of the time.
Teams that lead by 7 with 4 minutes to play and the opponent starting on their own 25 win x% of time.
Teams that are tied with 4 minutes to go and the opponent takes over on their own 4 yard line win x% of the time.

If the % difference is bigger from 3pt lead to 7pt lead than tied to 3pt lead, the Ivy leaguer in the booth tells Harbaugh they could benefit from going for it. Zero other variables involved.

It’s a tool, but Harbaugh is a slave to it apparently. That’s not using the tool properly. The tool doesn’t take anything else into account. The coach should.

It should be decided based on the expectation of success/failure of the conversion and not just on the delta between the 3 possible scenarios you described.

But other than that, completely agree. The numbers are a baseline which need to be adjusted - preferably quantitatively but at least roughly - by the HC based on specific details that pertain to the current game. Gameflow, your strengths and weakness versus theirs, dog/favorite, weather, health, home/away... Maybe Harbaugh is doing that but it doesn't feel like it. Feels like he just chooses the aggressive option whenever it's a remotely defensible decision.

#816 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 09:28 PM

The defense stinks.

In my opinion, Harbaugh knows this and didn’t even trust them to hold them to 3 if we kicked the FG.

Me? I’m kicking and taking my chances.

I don’t think any of his decisions have been egregious but eventually you have to look at all the decisions that ended up bad (packers Steelers rams last year, Buffalo today) and say to yourself “maybe it’s time for new leadership”

I was drunk and angry earlier and immediately wanted him fired. I still would prefer a new coach but I’m not blowing my top over it.

Also the Orioles took 2/3 from the Yankees.
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#817 cprenegade

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 09:33 PM

I also don't think it is too early to call out the DC.  He looks like a deer in the headlights.  I don't mean fire him, nobody should be judged a failure after only a few weeks in their job.  But he looks like he is used to coaching a Michigan defense that was mostly superior in talent to almost every other team it played.  This is the NFL.  You actually have to analyze things, make adjustments, and change things up.  You aren't always going to have an insurmountable edge in talent.  



#818 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 09:34 PM

Overall the player development and actual coaching of the players is a much issue for me than game management



#819 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 09:35 PM

I also don't think it is too early to call out the DC.  He looks like a deer in the headlights.  I don't mean fire him, nobody should be judged a failure after only a few weeks in their job.  But he looks like he is used to coaching a Michigan defense that was mostly superior in talent to almost every other team it played.  This is the NFL.  You actually have to analyze things, make adjustments, and change things up.  You aren't always going to have an insurmountable edge in talent.  

Harbaugh has never been good at hiring assistants IMO



#820 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 02 October 2022 - 09:35 PM

I also don't think it is too early to call out the DC. He looks like a deer in the headlights. I don't mean fire him, nobody should be judged a failure after only a few weeks in their job. But he looks like he is used to coaching a Michigan defense that was mostly superior in talent to almost every other team it played. This is the NFL. You actually have to analyze things, make adjustments, and change things up. You aren't always going to have an insurmountable edge in talent.


Yup. I’m always suspicious of a coordinator that comes to the NFL from college. Just such a different sport really

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

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