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Lopez to the Twins


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#321 Mackus

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 02:24 PM

While I understand the thought, I dont think its fair to say the respect he has received is heavily influenced by a tail wags the dog response to Elias targeting him. Elias is clearly well respected but thats too much respect for him and likely not enough respect for their ranking process

 

If he was talked about more before the O's acquired him (even the Minnesota Sports & Life type sites that I found didn't have him in their top-10 at midseason) or if he were highly ranked by most every publication this preseason, I'd take more notice and be less concerned that its people respecting Elias moreso than them respecting Povich.



#322 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 02:24 PM

Povich could go on to be Justin Verlander 2.0 and it still wouldn’t change my opinion on the decision to sell last year.

Yeah my position remains and will continue to remain if they wanted b-tier pitching prospect depth like that, why didn't they decide to just draft it? He was taken in the 3rd round and the prospect they took instead, OF John Rhodes, doesn't seem particularly likely to make the majors at least as an Oriole between MLB OF options like Mullins and other prospects/rookies like Stowers, Cowser, Kjerstad, etc


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#323 BobPhelan

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 02:37 PM

If he was talked about more before the O's acquired him (even the Minnesota Sports & Life type sites that I found didn't have him in their top-10 at midseason) or if he were highly ranked by most every publication this preseason, I'd take more notice and be less concerned that its people respecting Elias moreso than them respecting Povich.


https://twitter.com/...svWZ5yD3jK3P0Tw

https://twitter.com/...svWZ5yD3jK3P0Tw

https://twitter.com/...svWZ5yD3jK3P0Tw

This guy should qualify as the former and I think he had Povich at 10 before they traded a bunch of guys.

#324 Mackus

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 02:53 PM

https://twitter.com/...svWZ5yD3jK3P0Tw

https://twitter.com/...svWZ5yD3jK3P0Tw

https://twitter.com/...svWZ5yD3jK3P0Tw

This guy should qualify as the former and I think he had Povich at 10 before they traded a bunch of guys.

How much do we devalue the opinion because he says also Cano is a solid middle reliever? :)

Also the Twins 10th best prospect isn't what I wanted for Lopez.

#325 BobPhelan

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 02:56 PM

How much do we devalue the opinion because he says also Cano is a solid middle reliever? :)

Also the Twins 10th best prospect isn't what I wanted for Lopez.

 

Zero because I happen to agree that he could be a solid middle reliever? Haha doubt he ever gets a real chance to be that here but I understood him as the fourth piece.

 

I still feel like a lot of people vastly overvalued Lopez' value but I get it and you've been consistent.



#326 makoman

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 03:13 PM

Is there any evidence to suggest Povich is likely a top 125 guy? That seems like a stretch.

Other than a few people (edit, or at least one) that do this for a living saying so?

 

I guess Mackus could be right that these national folks just jump on the bandwagon of whatever guy Elias picks up, but that seems a bit far fetched.

 

What I do think may happen, and may have even said as much in this thread, is that a random 3rd round pick that was expected to be a 3rd round pick is just slotted into like 22nd on the team, and then nobody pays much attention to him again until his stats tell you to. Even if the scouting has improved a good bit (and I believe his FB improved a good bit after starting pro ball? I forget), if you are a national guy keeping tabs on 1000 prospects you aren't taking a closer look if the stats aren't telling you to unless some other reason tells you to, you don't have that much time. Maybe some scout is incredibly high on him. Or maybe a team with a top farm system trades for him as an unusual headliner. So you take a closer look and then say oh, maybe he's really better than we thought.

 

So the tail wags the dog in that way--not that they just ramp up his ranking because hey he must be good if Elias traded for him. They ramp it up because Elias traded for him so that actually caused them to reevaluate him and then had reason to move him up.

 

But I am just talking out of my butt so who knows.


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#327 mweb08

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 03:29 PM

Other than a few people that do this for a living saying so?


Who are the few? I've seen one outlier have him top 60 and I haven't seen anyone else mention him for top 100 or as an honorable mention, but maybe I missed it.

#328 makoman

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 03:31 PM

Who are the few? I've seen one outlier have him top 60 and I haven't seen anyone else mention him for top 100 or as an honorable mention, but maybe I missed it.

McDaniel had him at 54. I knew when I said that that someone also had him top 125 during the end months of last year but it seems that was also McDaniel. I thought there was some talk of him being close in some of these 100 lists, but I’m not sure anymore. Too much info is out there. So maybe he’s the only outlier and I’ll correct it to one instead of “a few,” or maybe there are others. Bob would know better. Either way, one still means something as evidence IMO.


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#329 BobPhelan

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 03:33 PM

It was an outlier but Kiley McDaniel is a very respected prospect guy so maybe he's just ahead of the field and the rest will eventually follow suit. He had him as a "just missed" guy mid-season last year so its not like he just came out of nowhere for him. I'm a big fan of Povich but I still only have him as our 13th best prospect.



#330 mweb08

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 03:34 PM


McDaniel had him at 54. I knew when I said that that someone also had him top 125 during the end months of last year but it seems that was also McDaniel. I thought there was some talk of him being close in some of these 100 lists, but I’m not sure anymore. Too much info is out there. So maybe he’s the only outlier and I’ll correct it to one instead of “a few,” or maybe there are others. Bob would know better. Either way, one still means something as evidence IMO.


One means something but if that's it, it shouldn't be used to assume he's a top 125 guy in general or on others lists as 2035 suggested.

#331 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 03:57 PM

I guess Mackus could be right that these national folks just jump on the bandwagon of whatever guy Elias picks up, but that seems a bit far fetched.

 

May not exactly be apples to apples, but this does frequently happen in the world of college football recruiting. The various ratings services routinely "bump" a HS player's rating if the school they commit to is a program that's more respected than what their original rating suggested they were suited for....the thinking being, "if so-and-so thinks this kid is good enough to give out a scholarship, maybe we've underestimated him a bit."


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#332 glenn__davis

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 06:57 PM

May not exactly be apples to apples, but this does frequently happen in the world of college football recruiting. The various ratings services routinely "bump" a HS player's rating if the school they commit to is a program that's more respected than what their original rating suggested they were suited for....the thinking being, "if so-and-so thinks this kid is good enough to give out a scholarship, maybe we've underestimated him a bit."

 

I remember MD fans joking about how as soon as a guy commits to MD his ranking drops a bit; or, the reverse of what you're saying above.



#333 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 09:55 PM

Does it matter exatly where. Mack is right when it comes to tiering up thease guys. Im using this as an example but the 90th overall prospect and 150th prospect could all easily be 45 or 50 FV guys. I dont go deep enough into scouting or rankings to know where a 50 FV ends and a 45 FV starts but again I agree with Mack that there are often large groups of guys that are tiered the same. McDaniel is an outlier but I doubt its a massive outlier. Ill stand my ground on him being graded in that tier of prospects that make up the 100-125 prospect on most lists

#334 mweb08

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 10:52 PM

We'd probably think of him as a fringe top 200 guy at best if not for McDaniel. I am not aware of any other reason to think he's top 125. Hopefully McDaniel is right.

#335 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 13 February 2023 - 11:30 PM

A fringe top 200 guy. Yeah no. Im willing to be told by multiple other "experts" that McDaniel is that much of an outlier but Im not buying that at all. His FV rating is likely in line with other guys in the 100-150range at other places

#336 mweb08

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Posted 14 February 2023 - 07:01 AM

The most bullish ranking that Bob just referenced had him at 10th in a meh Twins organization at the time of the trade. His performance post trade, at least results wise wouldn't suggest such a rise.

So what's 10 multipled by 30?

#337 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 14 February 2023 - 07:25 AM

The most bullish ranking that Bob just referenced had him at 10th in a meh Twins organization at the time of the trade. His performance post trade, at least results wise wouldn't suggest such a rise.

So what's 10 multipled by 30?

Whats 10 multiplied by 30 when we know some systems are complete ass and others like the Os have 8 or 9 guys in the top 100. Come on man. I know thats 300 to 200 but you cant say 13th in one guys ranking of this rich super rich system means anything

#338 mweb08

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Posted 14 February 2023 - 08:18 AM

Whats 10 multiplied by 30 when we know some systems are complete ass and others like the Os have 8 or 9 guys in the top 100. Come on man. I know thats 300 to 200 but you cant say 13th in one guys ranking of this rich super rich system means anything


It was 10th in the Twins system, as I said.

#339 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 14 February 2023 - 08:26 AM

Point remains. Hes in some people top 10 here and we have 8 or 9 guys that are consensus top 125 players

#340 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 14 February 2023 - 09:44 AM

Point remains. Hes in some people top 10 here and we have 8 or 9 guys that are consensus top 125 players

That doesn't mean the 10th guy is also a consensus top 125 player, it could just mean there's a huge gap between #9 and #10






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