514 replies to this topic

[JStruds]

If you trade Trey (or Lopez or Santander or Lyles) you're pretty much white flagging the playoff race. That doesn't mean the team can't stay in it, but its saying that you aren't trying to win it at the above-the-field level.

I'm not against such a move, I think the playoff odds are wildly low. .

I think the odds are low too. Without checking, I'd guess Wells, Kremer and Watkins are all approaching career high inning totals for a season. I reluctantly expect some drop off after that point, and as much fun as we've had recently, it was mostly against struggling teams.

So, at the FO level, the decision becomes a choice between trying hard to maybe squeeze into a WC spot, or build even more depth for the anticipated run of good years ahead. I'm somewhat ok with the latter, even if it means an ugly finish to this season.

[Mackus]

Honestly I think that maintaining fan involvement and excitement might be more important than either the playoff (or >500) odds or the potential prospect return on all these guys. 

 

Lopez is the only trade chip that I would expect could bring back a big enough package to be worth sacrificing some of the mojo that is going on this year (even if that mojo may run out naturally without any trades).  I think you could potentially get a top-5 and top-10 prospect (in our system) for him.  That's a serious offer for a guy who is having his first positive season.  

[weird-O]

I think the odds are low too. Without checking, I'd guess Wells, Kremer and Watkins are all approaching career high inning totals for a season. I reluctantly expect some drop off after that point, and as much fun as we've had recently, it was mostly against struggling teams.

So, at the FO level, the decision becomes a choice between trying hard to maybe squeeze into a WC spot, or build even more depth for the anticipated run of good years ahead. I'm somewhat ok with the latter, even if it means an ugly finish to this season.

I'll preface this by saying, I'm not advocating trading quality prospects for rentals. But I think selling will kill the team's spirit. It will essentially be Elias saying, I don't believe in you guys. If they do nothing, I think it would be better than selling. They have two weeks until the trade deadline. If the team stumbles, then sell away.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Honestly I think that maintaining fan involvement and excitement might be more important than either the playoff (or >500) odds or the potential prospect return on all these guys. 

 

Lopez is the only trade chip that I would expect could bring back a big enough package to be worth sacrificing some of the mojo that is going on this year (even if that mojo may run out naturally without any trades).  I think you could potentially get a top-5 and top-10 prospect (in our system) for him.  That's a serious offer for a guy who is having his first positive season.  

That could change quickly depending on how the next two weeks go but I agree that if the continue playing well the next few weeks trading away Mancini and even Lopez probably isnt worth annoying or pissing off a good bit of the fanbase. Santander isnt that big a loss and can be covered by calling up Stowers 

[Mackus]

That could change quickly depending on how the next two weeks go

 

Sure that's fair.  14 games left.  Even if they go 4-10, they'd only be 5 games below .500.  

 

Also dependent on what the trade returns would be.  I'm basing everything on my perception of what I think they'd bring back, but if we can get more than I am thinking for someone like Lyles or Santander or even Mancini, then I'd be more understandable of a trade.  

 

This is the first time it hasn't been punishing to follow the team in half a decade.  If you're gonna intentionally diminish that, you better get something worthwhile.  I can see getting something good enough to make it worth dealing Lopez even though he's the lone All-Star on the team.  Santander also, but mainly because we have another guy we'd like to see in his spot.  But have a hard time seeing it for the others.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Sure that's fair. 14 games left. Even if they go 4-10, they'd only be 5 games below .500.

Also dependent on what the trade returns would be. I'm basing everything on my perception of what I think they'd bring back, but if we can get more than I am thinking for someone like Lyles or Santander or even Mancini, then I'd be more understandable of a trade.

This is the first time it hasn't been punishing to follow the team in half a decade. If you're gonna intentionally diminish that, you better get something worthwhile. I can see getting something good enough to make it worth dealing Lopez even though he's the lone All-Star on the team. Santander also, but mainly because we have another guy we'd like to see in his spot. But have a hard time seeing it for the others.

I edited my post and elaborated. I agree with you.

[85Knight]

Honestly I think that maintaining fan involvement and excitement might be more important than either the playoff (or >500) odds or the potential prospect return on all these guys.

Lopez is the only trade chip that I would expect could bring back a big enough package to be worth sacrificing some of the mojo that is going on this year (even if that mojo may run out naturally without any trades). I think you could potentially get a top-5 and top-10 prospect (in our system) for him. That's a serious offer for a guy who is having his first positive season.

My thoughts exactly. The determining factor doesn't have to be winning the World Series. Only one team does that. Playing meaningful baseball in September would be a monumental boost for this franchise and fan base. That's an accomplishment that cannot be downplayed. Imagine a crowd of 25K at The Yard instead of the 12K we've been getting. Hyde talked about the confidence being built in the clubhouse and what difference that makes.

Should we ignore all of that for some mid-level prospects we're gonna get in a trade? Even if we don't make the playoffs carrying that momentum into 2023 for the team and the fans would be huge.

My measuring stick is 5-5 in these next 10 games. Prove that you can play .500 against the winning teams and beat up on the bad teams and you've got a winning formula. If we tank then start the fire sale and no one will complain.

[dude]

So, at the FO level, the decision becomes a choice between trying hard to maybe squeeze into a WC spot, or build even more depth for the anticipated run of good years ahead. I'm somewhat ok with the latter, even if it means an ugly finish to this season.

 

...but none of this is that rooted in actuality.  You don't have to by "All in or All out".  That is one of the (many) myths that permeate The Game today.

 

You don't have to try that hard to improve this roster.

Selling what assets you have doesn't necessarily change future opportunity one iota.

 

What you allowed to do (if you want) is shape the roster to compete however you want to compete.  There's nothing unique that happens between now (trade deadline) and end of the season (FA).  The Orioles aren't in play for guys like Turner, Boegarts and Correa so pretending those are the unique things you get to do isn't reality.

 

The Orioles are going to give opportunity to guys like Henderson and Westburg, you can decide when (SEP22, APR23, JUN23) and you can create opportunity within whatever it is you want to do.

 

You don't have to violate your Win Now, Win Later plan (if they had one) to do whatever it is you want to do at the deadline.

 

You are never "100% in OR 100% out"

You are always "80% in AND 80% out"

[BSLSteveBirrer]

After last night I am fine trading Santander. Not going to get much but lets get the kids up here.

[Nigel Tufnel]

After last night I am fine trading Santander. Not going to get much but lets get the kids up here.

 

"Kids" may be overstating it.  Stowers is only 3 years younger than Santander, and Diaz is not quite 2.

[weird-O]

I didn't realize anyone was still expecting Diaz to ever produce. He's another Hunter Harvey. He may have been something, but his body is built for office desk work, not pro sports. 

[CantonJester]

"Kids" may be overstating it.  Stowers is only 3 years younger than Santander, and Diaz is not quite 2.

 

Santander may be hide-able in RF, but holy crap I’ve seen little leaguers with better awareness in LF. He let the wall play him 3x last night, and that laughable attempt at catching a foul ball that was actually a home run that just cleared the fence was amazing in its goofiness. 

[You Play to Win the Game]

LF in the Trop is about as standard and easy as it gets. Hopefully an interested trade partner didn’t ask us to show him in LF, lol.

[dude]

It's still crazy how Santander isn't a Padre.  They are still getting killed in their OF.  They desperately need quality OFers and they have specific LuxTax issues going after certain guys.  

 

You wouldn't need to give up a top10 guy to get Santander.  The Orioles could take back Lamet to solve the $ balance (Lamet makes 1M more than Santander) so it should be nothing for the Orioles, but important to the Padres.

 

Santander for Lamet and their CompA pick (1-39).  Orioles should get something else (minor) for being helpful.

[dude]

Here's another trade I think should be available for the Orioles.

 

Kyle Stowers to CLE for Nolan Jones.

 

Indians (yes, the Indians) extended Ramirez (good for them) and now they are playing Jones in the OF because there's no room at 3B.  The Orioles have an OFer (Stowers) that's actually ranked higher in the better Orioles system than Jones is today in a decent Indians system.  

 

I don't think Stowers is going to get the look we may want with Cowser hitting at AA.  Reasonable to see Cowser in SEP of 2023.  You don't need to go through the growing pains with prospects to go through the growing pains with prospects.  

 

I'd like to see Henderson and Westburg at SS and 2B so Vavra isn't really there for me.  I'd rather go get a better 3B option and set the IF up that way.

 

You still trade Santander above.  It's easy to get a vet OFer for LF (I prefer Hays and his arm in RF) to hold the fort until SEP23 for Cowser.

 

You could set Conforto up (he needs an opportunity) or a Gallo, Heyward, Pham, there's lots of guys that you could create different values with than playing a young guy to get to a young guy.  You have to be willing to do something and that hasn't really been the case so far.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Here's another trade I think should be available for the Orioles.

Kyle Stowers to CLE for Nolan Jones.

Indians (yes, the Indians) extended Ramirez (good for them) and now they are playing Jones in the OF because there's no room at 3B. The Orioles have an OFer (Stowers) that's actually ranked higher in the better Orioles system than Jones is today in a decent Indians system.

I don't think Stowers is going to get the look we may want with Cowser hitting at AA. Reasonable to see Cowser in SEP of 2023. You don't need to go through the growing pains with prospects to go through the growing pains with prospects.

I'd like to see Henderson and Westburg at SS and 2B so Vavra isn't really there for me. I'd rather go get a better 3B option and set the IF up that way.

You still trade Santander above. It's easy to get a vet OFer for LF (I prefer Hays and his arm in RF) to hold the fort until SEP23 for Cowser.

You could set Conforto up (he needs an opportunity) or a Gallo, Heyward, Pham, there's lots of guys that you could create different values with than playing a young guy to get to a young guy. You have to be willing to do something and that hasn't really been the case so far.

Maybe 3B will be for Brooks Lee.

[dude]

Maybe 3B will be for Brooks Lee.

 

I don't think so, but we'll see.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Not trading Stowers for Jones with a more than a comp pick. Not doing it.

[dude]

Not trading Stowers for Jones with a more than a comp pick. Not doing it.

 

OK, so tell me how you project your OF over the next 3 seasons.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

OK, so tell me how you project your OF over the next 3 seasons.

My original look saw Jones as an OFer but I see he can play 3B too. That makes him a bit more interesting. But I think Stowers is the better hitter anyway.

 

But to answer your question:

OF Starters - Mullins and Hays

I see Santander out of the picture.

 

So that leaves Cowser, Stowers, and Mckenna to fill the remaining 2 spots. Thats not much of a log jam and I can't see trading Stowers when Jones isn't a clear fix that can't be gotten in other ways. Too much to give up to me.