514 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

😭

[BSLChrisStoner]

Nah, the biggest loser is whoever the hell Bradford Doolittle is.

“It may make sense logically but…” Always a great start to making a great point.

Spent a lot of time at Baseball Prospectus.  Been at ESPN for years... NBA and MLB.

[BobPhelan]

Maybe he should stick to the NBA.

[Mackus]

I think this is just a regurgitation of the MLB Pipeline rankings, but it does at least order all of the guys traded, no indication on how to distinguish between the rankings or what any tiers of the players might be (the top 7 were the guys in the overall top-100).  47 players who were on a top-30 list were traded.  The O's got:

 

#14 Seth Johnson

#23 Trayce McDermott

#30 Cade Povich

 

https://www.mlb.com/...-trade-deadline

 

Just as a point of comparison, the Cubs got #9 Hayden Wesniewski in return for RP Scott Effross.  Not a closer, but 28 y/o with 5 years control remaining and has been good in 60 career innings.  Reasonable to think he was worth more than Lopez with all that control, but Lopez has been even better and has been closing which would add value on his end.  The Cubs also got #13 Ben Brown (who we've mentioned already ) in return for a rental of 37 y/o David Robertson.  Lopez certainly has more value than Robertson.  The O's got multiple pieces for Lopez, but only Povich and Rojas really are anything of note.  I don't think Cano and Nunez change the value of the package dramatically.  You can get guys like them for waiver claims or cash or PTBNL type deals.

 

This isn't really new info, we'd all seen the Pipeline rankings.  Seems like most other entities generally agree with Pipeline, but some are a bit more optimistic/pessimistic on some guys. 

[JeremyStrain]

So basically people get the Mancini thing even though there’s a little saltiness because of who he is as a person. Little arguing but not woe is me.

The Lopez thing though completely livid about. And I understand a big part of that, he had great numbers and was still controlled. This wasn’t about money like everyone wants to blame when we do something.

I’ll just point out that I think people are glossing over the RP volatility thing a little bit. Many better closers with better track records have turned to complete poop suddenly with no reason. Given the lack of track record, and return it seems others are concerned too.

He may stay solid the next couple years and could have been a good piece here even if his numbers declined. OR he could have fallen off and been a replacement level guy who gets cut half way through the year. That’s the issue with volatility. You really don’t know. It’s a risk to trade him. It was a risk to keep him too. Goes for everyone back there.

[Old Man]

I agree, not liking the Trey thing, but I get it. Not to mention, damaged goods in return, is like what the heck.

 

Lopez makes zero sense. Not good enough return, he aint making anything, and isnt he under team control???????????

 

I know Elias knows more about baseball than my little pinkie, but this just doesnt pass the smell test for me.

[Mike B]

So basically people get the Mancini thing even though there’s a little saltiness because of who he is as a person. Little arguing but not woe is me.

The Lopez thing though completely livid about. And I understand a big part of that, he had great numbers and was still controlled. This wasn’t about money like everyone wants to blame when we do something.

I’ll just point out that I think people are glossing over the RP volatility thing a little bit. Many better closers with better track records have turned to complete poop suddenly with no reason. Given the lack of track record, and return it seems others are concerned too.

He may stay solid the next couple years and could have been a good piece here even if his numbers declined. OR he could have fallen off and been a replacement level guy who gets cut half way through the year. That’s the issue with volatility. You really don’t know. It’s a risk to trade him. It was a risk to keep him too. Goes for everyone back there.

I really have no issue trading either, but the return is what pisses me off.  I know I will draw a reaction, but this is more kicking the can down the road.  I think Elias has worn out of his we are not there excuse.  You constantly act like the smartest guy in the room, so figure it out and start acting like now means something.   

I just think we should have gotten more than we did.  IMO< Elias is lacking in the trade department.

[You Play to Win the Game]

So basically people get the Mancini thing even though there’s a little saltiness because of who he is as a person. Little arguing but not woe is me.

The Lopez thing though completely livid about. And I understand a big part of that, he had great numbers and was still controlled. This wasn’t about money like everyone wants to blame when we do something.

I’ll just point out that I think people are glossing over the RP volatility thing a little bit. Many better closers with better track records have turned to complete poop suddenly with no reason. Given the lack of track record, and return it seems others are concerned too.

He may stay solid the next couple years and could have been a good piece here even if his numbers declined. OR he could have fallen off and been a replacement level guy who gets cut half way through the year. That’s the issue with volatility. You really don’t know. It’s a risk to trade him. It was a risk to keep him too. Goes for everyone back there.

No mention of this years team in yet another post breaking this all down.

I guess most are in a state of Stockholm syndrome. All the intentional losing has permeated your souls to the point that they are winning, and no one cares.

Help me out here Jeremy - why does no one care about 2022? We’ve suffered long and hard. I truly don’t get it. Keeping Lopez and Mancini would not have harmed our ability to win a future title.

If anything, when those are the returns, you HAVE to factor in these remaining 2 months (2 years + 2 months for Lopez), as well as what it means to the fans that are left, and the clubhouse who is trying hard.

We’re not talking about passing up on a Bedard level return here. Or if the Nats were 2 games out when they traded Soto, like they’d still have to. I’m not a moron, much to Bob’s dismay.

[BobPhelan]

“Stop engaging me.” And I never said, nor do I think, that you are a moron.

[JeremyStrain]

No mention of this years team in yet another post breaking this all down.

I guess most are in a state of Stockholm syndrome. All the intentional losing has permeated your souls to the point that they are winning, and no one cares.

Help me out here Jeremy - why does no one care about 2022? We’ve suffered long and hard. I truly don’t get it. Keeping Lopez and Mancini would not have harmed our ability to win a future title.

If anything, when those are the returns, you HAVE to factor in these remaining 2 months (2 years + 2 months for Lopez), as well as what it means to the fans that are left, and the clubhouse who is trying hard.

We’re not talking about passing up on a Bedard level return here. Or if the Nats were 2 games out when they traded Soto, like they’d still have to. I’m not a moron, much to Bob’s dismay.

Because in the grand scheme you are emotionally reacting before you even know what they will do. You’re giving up saying that it they are done. Honestly their odds haven’t changed much at all after these trades. If they can make trades that aren’t really going to take away from anything this year and add parts that may help us deal for big fish or extend our window unlike the 2014 debacle, we should do it.

The two areas we dealt are the deepest on this team. Basically DH and the bullpen. Evaluate it after the season if you want but their whole thing this year has been winning games with come from behind scrappy play, and pitching results that shouldn’t be possible. These trades didn’t hurt either of those.

We are overachieving right now and it’s awesome, but let things play out if you want to see something really cool. Way too much emotion flying around here right now.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Because in the grand scheme you are emotionally reacting before you even know what they will do. You’re giving up saying that it they are done. Honestly their odds haven’t changed much at all after these trades. If they can make trades that aren’t really going to take away from anything this year and add parts that may help us deal for big fish or extend our window unlike the 2014 debacle, we should do it.

The two areas we dealt are the deepest on this team. Basically DH and the bullpen. Evaluate it after the season if you want but their whole thing this year has been winning games with come from behind scrappy play, and pitching results that shouldn’t be possible. These trades didn’t hurt either of those.

We are overachieving right now and it’s awesome, but let things play out if you want to see something really cool. Way too much emotion flying around here right now.

Oh got it, good reply. Just emotional. I get it now.

[JeremyStrain]

I really have no issue trading either, but the return is what pisses me off. I know I will draw a reaction, but this is more kicking the can down the road. I think Elias has worn out of his we are not there excuse. You constantly act like the smartest guy in the room, so figure it out and start acting like now means something.
I just think we should have gotten more than we did. IMO< Elias is lacking in the trade department.

I can see that. There were no oh man we got a steal in this trade things. But for me it says more of what the rest of the league thought of our pieces too. We are going to overvalue them more than anyone. I’m SURE he didn’t take the first and only offer he got.

I’m kinda neutral on it honestly because I do see your point, but like I said to Ricker, at the end of the day this team has replacements ready to go for both and I have a suspicion we won’t even notice much. If anything I’m raising an eyebrow at Phillips over say Stowers right now but even that I’m kinda meh on.

Until I see us blowing a ton of saves and not getting on base or scoring runs I’m not too worried about the this year effect. There’s a strong chance it doesn’t really change anything.

And the profile of the players they got back seems to be what this group KILLS it on. So I’m extending them the benefit of the doubt for right now. Next year we may be blown away by what we got for two solid pieces.

[Mackus]

Because in the grand scheme you are emotionally reacting before you even know what they will do. You’re giving up saying that it they are done. Honestly their odds haven’t changed much at all after these trades. If they can make trades that aren’t really going to take away from anything this year and add parts that may help us deal for big fish or extend our window unlike the 2014 debacle, we should do it.

 

But the odds did change.  They went down.  Is the return worth however much they went down (and will go down in the future without Lopez or needing to replace him)?  I think not.  With the Mancini trade its at least a fair return.  Lopez return was not even close to fair.  I'd pass on that even if we were 15 games under and the performance over the rest of this season had no tangible value.

 

And its not just the odds of the playoffs, though making the playoffs would be amazing.  I think its valuable just to continue playing well and have a shot at a 500+ record.  Unlike recent years, the performance we'd get this year after the deadline from both Mancini and Lopez has value.  I don't think the future value we added matches the value of we lost even just for '22, yet alone factoring in Lopez' additional control.

[mweb08]

One of the common threads on here that bothers me is the notion that Lopez and Mancini are pretty close to irrelevant to how good this team is and will be the remaining season. Maybe that phrasing is a bit strong so feel free to adjust it to your liking.

 

I think they have been quite important to the team's success and were likely to continue to be so in these last two months of the regular season. Lopez has arguably been the best player on the team. Mancini has been the 3rd best hitter on the team. That's not easy to replace even if they actually promote the best options to do so, which looks questionable at the moment. Vespi ain't even close to being as good as Lopez imo. Stowers may or may not be as or more valuable over a two month stretch, he has the talent, but while some are harping on the volatility of relievers, prospects getting their first run in the Bigs are certainly very volatile themselves. Stowers may not even be the replacement anyway.

[weird-O]

I’ll just point out that I think people are glossing over the RP volatility thing a little bit. Many better closers with better track records have turned to complete poop suddenly with no reason. Given the lack of track record, and return it seems others are concerned too.

I hold a different opinion. I think the volatility factor is probably the only thing that's keeping many O's fans from (figuratively) punching cinderblock walls in anger. I think we all grasp that reality. I have no problem with a GM who prefers to steer clear of high priced FA RPs, because BP arms have such a high tendency to evaporate. But when I guy pops up and explodes on the scene, and he's under team control for 2 years (two years that Elias has now signaled as the "liftoff stage" of this process) it seems like a no-brainer to keep him, unless the return is too much to refuse. And that's the problem. The return is seemingly so far into the future, the move doesn't seem to mesh with a team that's ready to go in '23. 

 

If Lopez disappears, and these arms show up and impress, nobody is going to shy away from congratulating Elias for his vision. What happens if the opposite is true? 

 

I guess what I'm saying is, it's seems pessimistic to place a heavy odds assumption that Lopez will return to a meh pitcher next year, and never hit such heights again.