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Hypothetical Scenario: What would you do?


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#21 dude

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 10:13 AM

In the spirit of the exercise, I would still be on the Night Moves Plan that I suggested 4 years ago, but was told it wasn't good enough.

 

SS/3B: Sign Corey (7/165) and Kyle (2+/21) Seager.  Maybe these guys don't care, but they are from the East Coast and they've likely never played on the same team (7 years apart).  Corey isn't likely to get the deal he wants (Lindor) so he can do something else with a larger guarantee and a 2-year and 3-year opt-out.

 

C: Sign Matt Weiters (1+/1.5).  I understand why some don't like this, but the guy likely wants a job, has history in Baltimore and if my other concerns can be assuaged, there's likely no better mentor for Rutschman in his position.  Matt doesn't have the legacy he wanted coming into Baltimore.  Ushering in that next guy could be a different aspect for his legacy.  If we were going to try and compete, I would go ahead and put together the 7 year deal for Adley and start them together from Day 1.

 

SP: I think there's a lot of ways to go here.  I'd kick the tires on Verlander (from VA area) and Scherzer and Stroman.  If other (better) options for them didn't materialize, then be that quality backup option.  I like Gray, but somebody just gave him 4/80, so I'll fall back to Zach Davies (2/22) and Andrew Heaney (1/3).

 

Closer: Kimbrel (3/40).  I'd guess the CWS don't pick up the option.  Kind of crazy why they traded Madrigal for a guy that wouldn't want the role they were giving him, but whatever. He wants to close, he can close here.  I'm not going crazy here and would be just as comfortable giving Brad Hand (1/5) the job in 2022 and waiting on Britton to return.  

 

Seager, Seager, Weiters, Davies, Heaney, Hand would put you around 80M for the 26-man.



#22 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 10:56 AM

Matt Weiters. What. Ok with all of this though youre not getting Corey Seager to sign here. And the pitching would still be absolutely atrocious.

#23 Greg Pappas

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 11:11 AM

Agreed, but the likely hood of them doing something like that is pretty next to zero.


Agreed. Very unlikely.



#24 weird-O

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 11:24 AM

In the spirit of the exercise, I would still be on the Night Moves Plan that I suggested 4 years ago, but was told it wasn't good enough.

 

SS/3B: Sign Corey (7/165) and Kyle (2+/21) Seager.  Maybe these guys don't care, but they are from the East Coast and they've likely never played on the same team (7 years apart).  Corey isn't likely to get the deal he wants (Lindor) so he can do something else with a larger guarantee and a 2-year and 3-year opt-out.

 

C: Sign Matt Weiters (1+/1.5).  I understand why some don't like this, but the guy likely wants a job, has history in Baltimore and if my other concerns can be assuaged, there's likely no better mentor for Rutschman in his position.  Matt doesn't have the legacy he wanted coming into Baltimore.  Ushering in that next guy could be a different aspect for his legacy.  If we were going to try and compete, I would go ahead and put together the 7 year deal for Adley and start them together from Day 1.

 

SP: I think there's a lot of ways to go here.  I'd kick the tires on Verlander (from VA area) and Scherzer and Stroman.  If other (better) options for them didn't materialize, then be that quality backup option.  I like Gray, but somebody just gave him 4/80, so I'll fall back to Zach Davies (2/22) and Andrew Heaney (1/3).

 

Closer: Kimbrel (3/40).  I'd guess the CWS don't pick up the option.  Kind of crazy why they traded Madrigal for a guy that wouldn't want the role they were giving him, but whatever. He wants to close, he can close here.  I'm not going crazy here and would be just as comfortable giving Brad Hand (1/5) the job in 2022 and waiting on Britton to return.  

 

Seager, Seager, Weiters, Davies, Heaney, Hand would put you around 80M for the 26-man.

Your Wieters comments are interesting. One reason is, I doubt MW has any thoughts about his legacy in Baltimore. I know this is something fans of the game like to ponder and speculate on, but I don't think too many players care about such thing. MW is more than deserving of being in the conversation of "best O's catcher ever". So even if he does think about it, I doubt he's thinking, "I'm a disappointment to the fans of Baltimore". He delivered on everything that should have been expected of him. He only pales when being compared to the hype and expectation.

As far as being a mentor, he'd serve that role better as a coach. Even in the limited role of back up catcher, Matty appears to have aged out. His time in StL doesn't suggest that he has anything left in the tank. But as a coach, he's still close enough to his playing days, that he can speak to being a player in today's game as well as strap on the gear during practice,    


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#25 weird-O

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 11:29 AM

Matt Weiters. What. Ok with all of this though youre not getting Corey Seager to sign here. And the pitching would still be absolutely atrocious.

I'll preface my comment with, the money would have to be more than comparable to offers from teams that are ready to compete now. But the idea of playing along side his brother might be something that would draw him in. It was a big deal to the Upton brothers.  


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#26 Greg Pappas

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 11:33 AM

I'm ok with Gray as a target.  I doubt the Orioles are in for anyone of merit, but whatever.

 

...but I am wondering who told you Gray would be getting 4/80 or more.  You should probably stop listening to them.

 

I read this article and estimated what he may get.  Yet, after re-reading it, I think I must have mis-read something and agree that he won't get 4/80. I do think he'll re-sign with the Rockies, but can't say how much he'll sign for.  Wherever he signs, I'd guess it'll be in the ballpark of 3/36.

Thanks for having me re-read and reconsider my post.



#27 makoman

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 11:56 AM

Wieters will be almost 36 and 18 months from playing his last game. Maybe I could see it if he played even in the minors this year. I'm not sure he'd outhit Austin Wynns at this point, but I'll admit I have no idea how much if anything mentoring could be worth.



#28 bmore_ken

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 12:03 PM

HA HA HA HA HA HA. Yeah that's happening.  :mrgreen:

In the spirit of the exercise, I would still be on the Night Moves Plan that I suggested 4 years ago, but was told it wasn't good enough.

 

SS/3B: Sign Corey (7/165) 



#29 Mackus

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 12:48 PM

HA HA HA HA HA HA. Yeah that's happening.  :mrgreen:

 

This is all a "what would you do" exercise, assuming full control.  Now Seager may not accept that deal from the O's, but for a hypothetical dude certainly has the authority to offer it.


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#30 dude

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 01:35 PM

Your Wieters comments are interesting. One reason is, I doubt MW has any thoughts about his legacy in Baltimore. I know this is something fans of the game like to ponder and speculate on, but I don't think too many players care about such thing. MW is more than deserving of being in the conversation of "best O's catcher ever". So even if he does think about it, I doubt he's thinking, "I'm a disappointment to the fans of Baltimore". He delivered on everything that should have been expected of him. He only pales when being compared to the hype and expectation.

As far as being a mentor, he'd serve that role better as a coach. Even in the limited role of back up catcher, Matty appears to have aged out. His time in StL doesn't suggest that he has anything left in the tank. But as a coach, he's still close enough to his playing days, that he can speak to being a player in today's game as well as strap on the gear during practice,    

 

I was just answering the question.  I'm happy to provide more and more context to that thought (or any of them), but I don't really want to ramp up over the backup catcher.  I don't agree with anything you've written there, but that's cool.



#31 dude

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 01:39 PM

This is all a "what would you do" exercise, assuming full control.  Now Seager may not accept that deal from the O's, but for a hypothetical dude certainly has the authority to offer it.

 

What I don't understand is whether his comment was from the Team side or the players side.



#32 dude

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 01:52 PM

I read this article and estimated what he may get.  Yet, after re-reading it, I think I must have mis-read something and agree that he won't get 4/80. I do think he'll re-sign with the Rockies, but can't say how much he'll sign for.  Wherever he signs, I'd guess it'll be in the ballpark of 3/36.

 

My intent is not to turn this into long discussions about specific players, but Gray is an interesting case.

 

He actually has reverse splits coming out of Colorado.  His road ERA is actually worse than his home ERA.  Building comps (the article) for guys coming out of Colorado is squirrely at best....because people aren't really sure what to trust.  

 

I line up his situation more with Tyler Chatwood.  He was the 4th best SP FA that year (2018) behind Darvish, Arrieta and Cobb.  He wound up signing for 3/38 but he was also 2 years younger at this point.  People like to project what you'll do away from Coors, but I think we're seeing everything is suspicious (pitching and hitting) because of the mental game it plays on you. 

 

My guess would be he'd take something in the 3/35-4/45 arena unless he views his opportunity outside of Coors as better....but he'd likely need a one-year deal to prove it.  If he dominated outside of Coors (one year...), could he get 4/60 or 5/80?

 

So in the absence of a multi-year deal that he wanted to sign, I'd offer him something like a 1/12.5 (10M with 2.5M b/o) with a 3/42 team option which he can defer the buyout and become a FA.  That protects the risk on both sides.


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#33 bmore_ken

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 01:53 PM

This is all a "what would you do" exercise, assuming full control.  Now Seager may not accept that deal from the O's, but for a hypothetical dude certainly has the authority to offer it.

No doubt, and  just like all his fantasy trade scenarios I have the authority to laugh at it. I didn't say he's not entitled to it. I just find it funny that anyone thinks the O's management is going to offer any player a 165 million dollar contract. Even in a hypothetical exercise  :-P



#34 Mackus

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 01:57 PM

I just find it funny that anyone thinks the O's management is going to offer any player a 165 million dollar contract.

 

Nobody thinks that, including dude.  Very few people think the actual Orioles are going to do anything of note this offseason.  This is a "what if..." thread.



#35 bmore_ken

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 02:13 PM

Nobody thinks that, including dude.  Very few people think the actual Orioles are going to do anything of note this offseason.  This is a "what if..." thread.

Soooo you're a blast at parties, right? It's not that serious bro.



#36 weird-O

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 02:14 PM

I was just answering the question.  I'm happy to provide more and more context to that thought (or any of them), but I don't really want to ramp up over the backup catcher.  I don't agree with anything you've written there, but that's cool.

Cool, I wasn't really looking for a conversation about it. But your post was interesting, so I thought I'd share what it brought to my mind. 


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#37 CantonJester

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 02:42 PM

Echo the thoughts on bringing in a good, veteran catcher. 

 

Personally I'd sign Buster Posey to be that veteran presence in the clubhouse. 



#38 BobPhelan

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 02:52 PM

Echo the thoughts on bringing in a good, veteran catcher.

Personally I'd sign Buster Posey to be that veteran presence in the clubhouse.


That would be perfect but he probably priced himself out of that with his great comeback season.

#39 dude

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 03:37 PM

That would be perfect but he probably priced himself out of that with his great comeback season.

 

I would expect, with the expected NL DH in the new CBA, that Posey will re-sign with SF and provide that presence for Joey Bart and/or Patrick Bailey.



#40 Mike B

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 04:06 PM

Echo the thoughts on bringing in a good, veteran catcher. 

 

Personally I'd sign Buster Posey to be that veteran presence in the clubhouse. 

I would be thrilled if that happened.  Tasking the realistic approach, maybe Yan Gomes, who is a good defender.  Not sure either would want to watch AR take the job in May.


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