63 replies to this topic

[The Epic]

If he sticks with this by the ASB, pay him slightly above his open market price (past arb) for like, 2 or 3 years. If that's $80mm, so be it.

 

It's almost certainly the only major contract he'll ever get. Let him go through his prime with the knowledge that he'll be a rich man with an organization that did right by him. 

[Mackus]

I think this all boils down to CantonJester just not being aware of the way that extensions are agreed upon with relation to service time.  Everyone learns it sometime, now is just your turn

 

Guys simply do not get paid FA rates for the years under which they wouldn't have been free agents.  They are reduced based on if they are pre-arb (first 3 full years), Arb1, Arb2, or Arb3.    Some guys are Super-2 which makes it slightly different but let's ignore that for now.

 

For an example lets look at two recent mega-deals, Fernando Tatis Jr and Francisco Lindor.  I think it's fair to call them comparable players.  Lindor signed for 10/$342M, and all 10 years are FA years (he was already one a 1-year deal for his final year of arbitration eligibility).  He was only one season from free agency, so there is very little discount given for signing early.

 

Tatis signed for 14/$340M, which is only a $24M average, but that's misleading because he had 4 years until free agency.  He'd have gotten near the minimum in 2021, then Arb1, Arb2, and Arb3.  Let's use Hallas' 40/60/80 model for those arb years (and 0 for the pre-arb), so the $340M he's gonna make over 14 years really is covering a net of 11.8 service years, so $340M / 11.8 = $29M.  Because Tatis was so much further from his own free agency than Lindor, he had to give a bit of a discount on the value of the FA years to get the deal done, as otherwise the Padres would be taking on all the risk with no reward.

 

 

So, as for Means, come up with whatever number you think he's worth if he were a free agent.  The best guys make about $35M, but they have a much longer track record than Means and better production than Means has had to date.  Do we wanna say $25M?  $20M?  Whatever it is, reduce it by a bit because he's signing 3 years early.  I'd say a 10% reduction is reasonable.  So $23M or $18M depending on your earlier evaluation.  The contract he'd sign after this year is 40% of that for Year 1, 60% for Year 2, and 80% for Year 3.  So 9.2 / 13.8 / 18.4 or 7.2M / 10.8 / 14.4 depending on above.  Then add in the full rate for FA years. 

 

This makes the a total contract of 5/$87M if you think he's a $25M pitcher.  Or total contract of 5/$68.4M if you think he's a $20M pitcher.

[CantonJester]

This makes the a total contract of 5/$87M if you think he's a $25M pitcher.  Or total contract of 5/$68.4M if you think he's a $20M pitcher.

 

I'm not arguing the models used to arrive at these numbers (and I appreciate why arbitration doesn't lead to the same dollar amounts that free agents get (thanks for the lesson in free market 101)).   

 

I'm saying that once Means gets a year under his belt as arguably one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, he might view a 5/72 offer (giving up two years of free agency in the process) as a bad offer. 

 

Especially after we all watched the 60 game season CYA winner, Trevor Bauer sign a 3 year, $102 million deal, signed after his 30th birthday, which he can walk away from after earning $85m of it after 2 seasons. Suddenly the arbitration route doesn't look so bad with the Bauer model staring teams in the face. 

[Mackus]

The arbitration route puts all the risk on Means. If he has an injury or struggles, he won't get big raises and is even at risk of non-tendering and getting nothing.

Arbitration and hit FA as soon as possible is absolutely the way to maximize potential dollars. That's what Bauer is doing and that's also why he signed a short deal instead of a 7-8 year one like he could have. Lots of guys do this.

Many other guys sign extensions well before free agency to guarantee themselves big dollars at the possible expense of not reaching their absolute max potential earnings. They prefer the security.

Just a guess, but I would guess Means would do the latter. A lot can change in the three years he'd have to wait to be a FA, and a lot can go wrong. Cash in now and guarantee yourself some insane money. And if things go well, he'd still have time to possibly get a second contract.

[dude]

I'm not arguing the models used to arrive at these numbers (and I appreciate why arbitration doesn't lead to the same dollar amounts that free agents get (thanks for the lesson in free market 101)). 

 

I'm saying that once Means gets a year under his belt as arguably one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, he might view a 5/72 offer (giving up two years of free agency in the process) as a bad offer. 

 

Especially after we all watched the 60 game season CYA winner, Trevor Bauer sign a 3 year, $102 million deal, signed after his 30th birthday, which he can walk away from after earning $85m of it after 2 seasons. Suddenly the arbitration route doesn't look so bad with the Bauer model staring teams in the face. 

 

You are still staring at the first Orioles no-hitter in 50 years and over-reacting to it....as I said in the other thread, that was his first pitch (as an Oriole starter) in the 8th inning.  Joe Musgrove and Carlos Rondon have no-hitters too this year.

 

While I am pro signing him to a contract, I don't think the Orioles will extend him for reasons that have nothing to do with him or winning or anything else baseball related, the fact is that the chances that he's worth more than 5/56 is probably about the same as him being worth significantly less.

 

You seem to be under the belief that the team has to do something crazy, but that's not what any team is doing, especially the Orioles.  There is a risk-reward balance and you are ignoring that because of the exuberance of - literally - one game....and if you think that's not true, if he had pitched 6 innings and 3 runs for the win Tuesday night, would you still be taking this position?....because his next start could be 6/3...or 4/5...or he could strain an oblique like just about every other guy in the League.

 

Again, don't get me wrong, I've got him in both my fantasy Leagues (including the BSL one) and I told my brother before this season he'd be one of the 15 best pitchers in the League.  He said...'who is John Means?'...not laughing now.

 

32 months ago he thought he was probably out of baseball...if someone offers you 56M guaranteed, understand the risk reward balance and say yes.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Think of it in pure life altering numbers.

 

$70ishM guaranteed now.

 

Lets say he did stay healthy and he did continue to pitch like this for the next 3 years so he gets even $30M/year for say 5 years. So he gets $150M. Now that is a lot more money than $70M.

 

But I have made this point before on discussion like this. He and his family and several generations are set for life with either amount. But he could end up with next to nothing. I'd take $70M and smile forever.

[CantonJester]

You are still staring at the first Orioles no-hitter in 50 years and over-reacting to it....as I said in the other thread, that was his first pitch (as an Oriole starter) in the 8th inning.  Joe Musgrove and Carlos Rondon have no-hitters too this year.

 

While I am pro signing him to a contract, I don't think the Orioles will extend him for reasons that have nothing to do with him or winning or anything else baseball related, the fact is that the chances that he's worth more than 5/56 is probably about the same as him being worth significantly less.

 

You seem to be under the belief that the team has to do something crazy, but that's not what any team is doing, especially the Orioles.  There is a risk-reward balance and you are ignoring that because of the exuberance of - literally - one game....and if you think that's not true, if he had pitched 6 innings and 3 runs for the win Tuesday night, would you still be taking this position?....because his next start could be 6/3...or 4/5...or he could strain an oblique like just about every other guy in the League.

 

Again, don't get me wrong, I've got him in both my fantasy Leagues (including the BSL one) and I told my brother before this season he'd be one of the 15 best pitchers in the League.  He said...'who is John Means?'...not laughing now.

 

32 months ago he thought he was probably out of baseball...if someone offers you 56M guaranteed, understand the risk reward balance and say yes.

 

I'm not under the impression they need to do anything right now. In fact, I think my first post in this thread suggested the O's should go large or go home. My point was based entirely on conjecture: that Means throws 200 dominant innings and garners legit CYA consideration. 

 

I'm under the impression that there are people in this thread thinking Means will take an 'awe shucks' attitude into accepting an offer because of past precedence. Or, perhaps, big lefty with a dominant CYA-worthy season under his belt decides to play hardball. 

 

I see that version of reality just as likely, particularly because of the deal Bauer just hoodwinked the Dodgers into signing. 

[CantonJester]

Think of it in pure life altering numbers.

 

$70ishM guaranteed now.

 

Lets say he did stay healthy and he did continue to pitch like this for the next 3 years so he gets even $30M/year for say 5 years. So he gets $150M. Now that is a lot more money than $70M.

 

But I have made this point before on discussion like this. He and his family and several generations are set for life with either amount. But he could end up with next to nothing. I'd take $70M and smile forever.

 

This speaks to his drive as an athlete. Not sure how or why you'd cap his potential like that though. 

[hallas]

I think this all boils down to CantonJester just not being aware of the way that extensions are agreed upon with relation to service time. Everyone learns it sometime, now is just your turn

Guys simply do not get paid FA rates for the years under which they wouldn't have been free agents. They are reduced based on if they are pre-arb (first 3 full years), Arb1, Arb2, or Arb3. Some guys are Super-2 which makes it slightly different but let's ignore that for now.

For an example lets look at two recent mega-deals, Fernando Tatis Jr and Francisco Lindor. I think it's fair to call them comparable players. Lindor signed for 10/$342M, and all 10 years are FA years (he was already one a 1-year deal for his final year of arbitration eligibility). He was only one season from free agency, so there is very little discount given for signing early.

Tatis signed for 14/$340M, which is only a $24M average, but that's misleading because he had 4 years until free agency. He'd have gotten near the minimum in 2021, then Arb1, Arb2, and Arb3. Let's use Hallas' 40/60/80 model for those arb years (and 0 for the pre-arb), so the $340M he's gonna make over 14 years really is covering a net of 11.8 service years, so $340M / 11.8 = $29M. Because Tatis was so much further from his own free agency than Lindor, he had to give a bit of a discount on the value of the FA years to get the deal done, as otherwise the Padres would be taking on all the risk with no reward.


So, as for Means, come up with whatever number you think he's worth if he were a free agent. The best guys make about $35M, but they have a much longer track record than Means and better production than Means has had to date. Do we wanna say $25M? $20M? Whatever it is, reduce it by a bit because he's signing 3 years early. I'd say a 10% reduction is reasonable. So $23M or $18M depending on your earlier evaluation. The contract he'd sign after this year is 40% of that for Year 1, 60% for Year 2, and 80% for Year 3. So 9.2 / 13.8 / 18.4 or 7.2M / 10.8 / 14.4 depending on above. Then add in the full rate for FA years.

This makes the a total contract of 5/$87M if you think he's a $25M pitcher. Or total contract of 5/$68.4M if you think he's a $20M pitcher.

The top guys earn around 35 million, but go down to 10 and you're at 24 million, (Patrick Corbin) and at 15 you're at 19 million (MadBum.) I think 20-25 million is a reasonable FMV for a player who is a fringe ace.

If he wins a CYA this year (or should win it but for the fact that the Os are otherwise bad) then you probably have to go 5/80 or maybe 5/85 on the extension, because his FMV is probably closer to 30m at that point.

[hallas]

This speaks to his drive as an athlete. Not sure how or why you'd cap his potential like that though.

So I'm not a pro athlete, but from my observation, a player is either intrinsically driven to perform, or he isn't, and by the time you reach this level, the vast majority of unmotivated players have been weeded out. Each player has his own calculation of risk that he's willing to take, and with few exceptions, it doesn't really affect their motivation to perform or their preparation. If Means wants to forego some money in exchange for more guaranteed money now, then I would hope the option is available to him, and our speculation is that this amount of money would be fair value, with the long term guaranteed money offsetting the reduction in total dollars. Add to this the fact that he did not sign a large draft contract, and he might very well be willing to forego some cash for the stability.

All baseball contracts weigh long term guarantees versus total dollar amount. MVP/Cy Young level pitchers are worth 60-80 million a season, but that dollar amount isn't really palatable to teams, so they sign longer term deals with guaranteed money to offset the lower money.

[Mackus]

This speaks to his drive as an athlete. Not sure how or why you'd cap his potential like that though.

Does Fernando Tatis lack drive as an athlete? He just signed a long-term deal capping his potential. Jacob DeGrom just did, too. Ronald Acuna. Mike Trout. Alex Bergman. Yoan Moncada. Blake Snell.

[russsnyder]

Does Fernando Tatis lack drive as an athlete? He just signed a long-term deal capping his potential. Jacob DeGrom just did, too. Ronald Acuna. Mike Trout. Alex Bergman. Yoan Moncada. Blake Snell.

I didn't hear of anyone from the Player's Union complaining about these contracts. I say get as much as that multi-generational wealth you can get, and as soon as you can get it.

[Mackus]

In 2018 Blake Snell won the Cy Young award in his second year of service.
That off-season he signed a 5/$50M deal that bought out his upcoming final pre-arb year, all three arb years, and one FA year. So that's a valuation of about $18M per year FA value (50 / 2.8). That's coming off of a Cy Young season.

So that's the best comp for the high end of a potential deal for Means. Snell was 4 years away from FA vice only 3 for Means after this season, but he had just won the damn Cy Young.

[dude]

In 2018 Blake Snell won the Cy Young award in his second year of service.
That off-season he signed a 5/$50M deal that bought out his upcoming final pre-arb year, all three arb years, and one FA year. So that's a valuation of about $18M per year FA value (50 / 2.8). That's coming off of a Cy Young season.

So that's the best comp for the high end of a potential deal for Means. Snell was 4 years away from FA vice only 3 for Means after this season, but he had just won the damn Cy Young.

 

I was trying to think of the right comp and that is it.

 

We're a year off in Service so the 5/56 guarantee but he could leverage the player option and be available after 4/46.

 

You aren't limited to that deal.  If after the 2023 season Means is dealing like a top10 guy then you come back and add 4/110 (or whatever) to the deal, flatten it and he gains the next level of security.

 

Don't use some of the current contracts (Cole, Strasburg, even Bauer) as comps for the contract environment.  Those contracts are position mitigation for the next CBA fight.  The contract environment will pull back again after the CBA is signed.

[dude]

All baseball contracts weigh long term guarantees versus total dollar amount. MVP/Cy Young level pitchers are worth 60-80 million a season, but that dollar amount isn't really palatable to teams, so they sign longer term deals with guaranteed money to offset the lower money.

 

....amongst all the (horribly) misleading things that Fangraphs has done, this one is probably the worst.

[dude]

...and again, I am a big fan of John Means, but he has yet to log a single, complete season of excellence.

 

He has a great 11 start run going right now.  It looks and feels somewhat sustainable at some level (not the no-hitter level)....but consistency is built off seasons, not months.  The peripherals are good, the results are good, there's justification for some of the struggles in there, if he was the top pitcher for the Orioles the next 4+ years, I'd be good with that, but a lot of people are well out over their skies on this.  I know we're desperate for something that feels good.  

[Mackus]

Agree the extension conversation is very premature with Means. That's a big reason why if you do approach him, the numbers would be very modest. Tons of risk on the Orioles side, so you get a bigger discount against the upside.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Given the pace we are on with no-hitters in MLB this year, as well as the Orioles offensive rankings, we are def due to get no hit at some point this year. Just throwing that out there.

[NewMarketSean]

Given the pace we are on with no-hitters in MLB this year, as well as the Orioles offensive rankings, we are def due to get no hit at some point this year. Just throwing thay out there.

Or Jorge Lopez throws one.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Or Jorge Lopez throws one.

He's been known to... until the second trip through the lineup.