63 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Sun: With no-hitter, John Means a beacon for Orioles rebuild in present and future: ‘He’s going to be the mainstay’

https://www.baltimor...bmkm-story.html

[FL O's Fan]

Pay the man. I know there's no guarantees. But this guy seems like the full package as a pitcher and a human. I like Palmer's idea. Let's make him the mainstay and the anchor for this next wave. 

[The Epic]

I would love for the Orioles to build around Means and Mullins, and keep tinkering with everyone else until we finally get the right recipe in...2-3 years? Maybe?

 

I still think they trade him, but I'd really, really like if they didn't.

[BaltBird 24]

Means seems to be at that tricky age where he could still be in his prime when we're ready to compete again, but really not young enough that they want to invest a massive contract in him.

[BSLChrisStoner]

He's under team control for 3 years.

[Slidemaster]

He's under team control for 3 years.

I'd give him a 5 year deal in the 70-80 million range.

Control him for 2 free agent years through his age 33 season. He's set for life. Seems like a good deal for both sides.

[BobPhelan]

I'd give him a 5 year deal in the 70-80 million range.

Control him for 2 free agent years through his age 33 season. He's set for life. Seems like a good deal for both sides.

Agreed.

[hallas]

I'd give him a 5 year deal in the 70-80 million range.

Control him for 2 free agent years through his age 33 season. He's set for life. Seems like a good deal for both sides.

 

I thought 70 was a bit high, but upon further examination it might be about right.  80 is definitely high.

 

Assuming health and continued performance, and using the 40/60/80 arb rule of thumb,  assuming his market value is around 20 million, he'd get 8, 12, 16  in arbitration.  70 million pays him about 17 million a year for the remaining 2 years, which is definitely a discount, but not a massive one, in exchange a pretty solid guarantee in case he gets hurt.  Also normally I'd bake into the equation some salary inflation but that has flatlined in the past 3 or so years, and with the aftereffects of COVID I don't think we can expect salaries to continue increasing in the near future.

 

I think that 80 million is a bit high. We'd be buying out 2 FA years at 23 million a pop, which would be in the ballpark of the true aces in the league.  Not that I don't think he is (or can be) our ace - he's certainly pitched like one for about a season and a half now - but he's on the fringes of that tier, and I think I'd want a little more of a club friendly deal given his late bloomer status, the fact that he's a pitcher, and the fact that we'd be guaranteeing him a lot of money that we don't have to do.

[Slidemaster]

I thought 70 was a bit high, but upon further examination it might be about right. 80 is definitely high.

Assuming health and continued performance, and using the 40/60/80 arb rule of thumb, assuming his market value is around 20 million, he'd get 8, 12, 16 in arbitration. 70 million pays him about 17 million a year for the remaining 2 years, which is definitely a discount, but not a massive one, in exchange a pretty solid guarantee in case he gets hurt. Also normally I'd bake into the equation some salary inflation but that has flatlined in the past 3 or so years, and with the aftereffects of COVID I don't think we can expect salaries to continue increasing in the near future.

I think that 80 million is a bit high. We'd be buying out 2 FA years at 23 million a pop, which would be in the ballpark of the true aces in the league. Not that I don't think he is (or can be) our ace - he's certainly pitched like one for about a season and a half now - but he's on the fringes of that tier, and I think I'd want a little more of a club friendly deal given his late bloomer status, the fact that he's a pitcher, and the fact that we'd be guaranteeing him a lot of money that we don't have to do.

In a perfect world where the club wins the deal 100% I'd agree with you, but I think a compromise or two might need to be made to entice him to sign. I guess we'll see.

[Mackus]

For a normal team with a normal budget I'd be more cautious with Means, since he hasn't done it for very long and you've still got 3 more years of control.

 

But for the Orioles, I see literally zero downside to signing him.  They could give him $50M a year starting tomorrow and if he never throws another pitch that money doesn't make any difference to anything else the Orioles might do for the next 5-ish years.  So sure, sign him. 

 

$23M a year suggested earlier for his FA years sounds reasonable, could see him asking for more since he's pitching like a top-10 guy and those guys get $30-35M+ but could see the O's arguing for less because Means hasn't got nearly the track record of those guys and the deal is well before free agency.  My gut reaction is if you offer him 5/$70M, he signs it instantly.  But I don't know anything about his outlook regarding rise versus maximizing earnings.  I tend to think the guys who get married and have kids at a younger age lean more towards the guaranteed money over max possible value, but that's a very broad generalization.

[CantonJester]

For a normal team with a normal budget I'd be more cautious with Means, since he hasn't done it for very long and you've still got 3 more years of control.

 

But for the Orioles, I see literally zero downside to signing him.  They could give him $50M a year starting tomorrow and if he never throws another pitch that money doesn't make any difference to anything else the Orioles might do for the next 5-ish years.  So sure, sign him. 

 

$23M a year suggested earlier for his FA years sounds reasonable, could see him asking for more since he's pitching like a top-10 guy and those guys get $30-35M+ but could see the O's arguing for less because Means hasn't got nearly the track record of those guys and the deal is well before free agency.  My gut reaction is if you offer him 5/$70M, he signs it instantly. But I don't know anything about his outlook regarding rise versus maximizing earnings.  I tend to think the guys who get married and have kids at a younger age lean more towards the guaranteed money over max possible value, but that's a very broad generalization.

 

Why would Means sign a $14m per year extension in Baltimore? Double that to get him to consider something now. 

 

eta: There's not a whole lot of motivation to work out a deal right now anyway. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Why would Means sign a $14m per year extension in Baltimore? Double that to get him to consider something now. 

 

eta: There's not a whole lot of motivation to work out a deal right now anyway. 

Disagree on two fronts.

 

1. The O's should be motivated to get a deal done now since its low risk high reward.

2. Means is motivated because he gets set for life guaranteed. Sure IF he continues to pitch like this AND doesn't get hurt he could end up with a bunch more money down the road. But a cool $70M or so in the bank would look pretty good.

 

Bottom line: You are suggesting the O's give him an extension now just about what he might get several years down the road even if he does this well and doesn't get hurt. So the O's would be taking all the risk for very minimal potential reward.

 

+

[CantonJester]

Disagree on two fronts.

 

1. The O's should be motivated to get a deal done now since its low risk high reward.

2. Means is motivated because he gets set for life guaranteed. Sure IF he continues to pitch like this AND doesn't get hurt he could end up with a bunch more money down the road. But a cool $70M or so in the bank would look pretty good.

 

Bottom line: You are suggesting the O's give him an extension now just about what he might get several years down the road even if he does this well and doesn't get hurt. So the O's would be taking all the risk for very minimal potential reward.

 

+

 

So the gist of it is to low ball yet another pitcher the way Angelos did with Mussina? 

 

Means isn't motivated to accept a lowball deal. It's insulting to suggest he'd even consider one. He's a professional athlete pitching to the best of his abilities, and this season will go a long way to determining how his side should approach any offseason negotiations. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

So the gist of it is to low ball yet another pitcher the way Angelos did with Mussina? 

 

Means isn't motivated to accept a lowball deal. It's insulting to suggest he'd even consider one. He's a professional athlete pitching to the best of his abilities, and this season will go a long way to determining how his side should approach any offseason negotiations. 

He's 28 years old, and under control for 3 more years. While he will get raises through arbitration, it's a good bet he would be motivated to get a couple of additional years and $ tacked on.

[CantonJester]

He's 28 years old, and under control for 3 more years. While he will get raises through arbitration, it's a good bet he would be motivated to get a couple of additional years and $ tacked on.

 

I'm guessing he's fully aware that if he has a great season, he will be able to ask for a hell of a lot more than $70 for 5 years, cuz at that point, age matters a lot less. 

 

Point being is: Means isn't motivated during a breakout season. He'd perhaps be motivated after one, but that's only if the O's determine to negotiate in good faith. Eyes will be on Baltimore and how they handle this, too. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'm guessing he's fully aware that if he has a great season, he will be able to ask for a hell of a lot more than $70 for 5 years, cuz at that point, age matters a lot less. 

Then the team will just go year-to-year, and he doesn't get the guaranteed dollars.

[Mackus]

Why would Means sign a $14m per year extension in Baltimore? Double that to get him to consider something now. 

 

eta: There's not a whole lot of motivation to work out a deal right now anyway. 

 

It's not $14M a year, but it's $18.4M a year value.  He's only arb-eligible for the next 3 years, so he won't get full FA rates.  This is baseball contracts 101.  Hallas above used a 40/60/80 model, meaning he gets 40% of FA rate in Arb1, 60% in Arb2, and 80% in Arb3, so $70M divided by 3.8 years (.4 + .6 + .8 + 1 + 1) means you'd be agreeing to a $18.4M AAV for him.  I haven't paid attention to recent contracts, so maybe 40/60/80 is the right mode, but I used to approximate more at 33/50/75 for the arb years, using that model 5/$70M is a $19.55M a year valuation.  In either case, the overall dollars and the valuation of the FA years will be lower than were he actually a free agent, because he's signing the deal 3 years before he hits the market.  You get less signing early, as the team takes on risk by guaranteeing money, so they get a discount for doing so.

 

The reason I think he signs it is because if he gets hurt or can't sustain this then he'll only make a handful or two of millions over the next couple years and then could get nothing else.  It's entirely a question of weighing maximum potential earnings versus guaranteed salary.

[Mackus]

Point being is: Means isn't motivated during a breakout season. He'd perhaps be motivated after one, but that's only if the O's determine to negotiate in good faith. Eyes will be on Baltimore and how they handle this, too. 

 

dude just made this exact point in the other thread, but don't you think Erik Bedard regrets not signing a big deal in the middle of his 2007 season rather than going year-to-year?

 

I recall wanting to sign him to a 6/$100M deal, which covered his last 2 arb years and 4 FA years at near the top of the pitching market at the time.  Instead he made $7M as Arb2 in '08, got a meager raise after a lost season to $7.75M as a Arb3 in '09, then kicked around on 1-year deals for the final 4 years of his career.  Over those final 6 years he made $23M rather than $80-100M or whatever the Orioles or Mariners might've signed him to after or during the 2007 season.

[weird-O]

So the gist of it is to low ball yet another pitcher the way Angelos did with Mussina? 

 

Means isn't motivated to accept a lowball deal. It's insulting to suggest he'd even consider one. He's a professional athlete pitching to the best of his abilities, and this season will go a long way to determining how his side should approach any offseason negotiations. 

$14M/yr is not a lowball offer. He's currently making $550K? I believe he's arb eligible after this season, but there's no way the panel is going to agree to give him more than $14M for 2022, even if he wins the AL CYA. It seems like you're comparing his situation with total free agency. He's not a free agent, so offering him $14M/yr is a very generous offer, considering he may earn 14M in total over his next 3 seasons. So the compromise is that the O's are giving him a fabulous raise, in exchange for him committing to staying on for 2 seasons beyond his obligation to Baltimore.  

[dude]

Why would Means sign a $14m per year extension in Baltimore? Double that to get him to consider something now. 

 

eta: There's not a whole lot of motivation to work out a deal right now anyway. 

 

What's a nice way to say this...

 

I would like to invite you back towards a much thicker limb to stand on.