81 replies to this topic

[Nigel Tufnel]

Here's a Fangraphs article about Davis's contract - his 7/161 contract with deferrals is worth the same as a 7/148 contract with no deferrals, assuming 4% interest.

 

The Value of Deferred Money in the Chris Davis Deal | FanGraphs Baseball

[Mackus]

I must not be typing this properly. Yes, $1M is worth more today than it will be in a few years. But they added money to their offer, thus negating the savings they would have gotten by deferring a portion of the annual $. 

 

$161M paid out the way Davis' deal is going to be paid out is roughly equal in NPV to a 6/$144M deal paid out evenly.

 

I don't recall what the original offer was for, if it was even ever accurately reported.  I know that 6/$144M sticks in my memory, but I don't know if that's because it was the originally reported offer or if its because that's what I reverse-engineered to be an equal contract offer.

 

But if the original offer was a straight 6/$144M and they ended up signing 7/$161M with a ton of deferrals, then they ddin't bid against themselves.  If the original offer was a straight 6/$120M, then they did.

[weird-O]

$161M paid out the way Davis' deal is going to be paid out is roughly equal in NPV to a 6/$144M deal paid out evenly.

 

I don't recall what the original offer was for, if it was even ever accurately reported.  I know that 6/$144M sticks in my memory, but I don't know if that's because it was the originally reported offer or if its because that's what I reverse-engineered to be an equal contract offer.

 

But if the original offer was a straight 6/$144M and they ended up signing 7/$161M with a ton of deferrals, then they ddin't bid against themselves.  If the original offer was a straight 6/$120M, then they did.

Given these explanations, I'll drop the bidding against themselves argument. And I hope this doesn't seem like I'm moving the goalpost, because that's not my intention. But I still contend that they overpaid for a player that had no other suitors. I disagree with your comment that he would have gotten the same (or nearly the same) money from someone else. If that was the case, there would have been reporting done on all the teams that were vying for his services. If he had legitimate offers that were in the same ballpark as the O's, Boras wouldn't have had to go through hoops to make his contract look better than it was. In my estimation, that was him saving face in the light that he over estimated his client's value on the open market. Like I posted before, Davis's stats always looked good at the end of the year. But the way he goes about getting there wasn't appealing to any other team. Angelos still got owned by Boras.    

[Old Man]

What scares me, rough in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.....

 

Contender in 2032

[weird-O]

What scares me, rough in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.....

 

Contender in 2032

Me too.

 

I'm trying to not project the incompetencies of the previous decision makers onto the current group of people running the team, but there are some very strange decisions being made by this group. 

[Mike B]

Me too.

 

I'm trying to not project the incompetencies of the previous decision makers onto the current group of people running the team, but there are some very strange decisions being made by this group. 

I believe the strange moves are being made with the dollar in mind.

 

I think whenever the Orioles spend a dollar, the dollar gets removed from somewhere else.  Presently that somewhere else is always at the cost to the big club.

[Slidemaster]

Me too.

I'm trying to not project the incompetencies of the previous decision makers onto the current group of people running the team, but there are some very strange decisions being made by this group.

Honestly, I'm less concerned about what year specifically they become a contender, and more concerned about seeing a system put in place that I have confidence can continue to generate contending teams moving forward. The last batch of Orioles playoff contenders under Buck felt a lot like luck to me. They found good players where they didn't expect to, and got some crazy production from unlikely sources. They managed to hold that crew together for a few years, but they did absolutely nothing to augmented or support the those rosters. I remember specifically being furious the year that Duquette was being considered for the Toronto job. They had every chance to add additional pieces to put them over the top, and they did absolutely nothing with that critical offseason. It was then that I realized that the warehouse personnel viewed what was happening as a happy accident, and not something they had expected or had any plans to sustain.

I want to see three things from this regime.

1. The ability to develop quality major league pitching with consistency. I don't need to see aces coming up every year from the minors, but I need to feel confidence that the minor leagues are capable of supplying the big club with good arms to build a rotation around.

2. A meaningful presence in international markets. Many of the best baseball players in the world are not born in the United States, nor do they attend American collegiate baseball programs. I know this is nothing new to anybody here, but if we are not making our presence felt internationally, we will always be at a disadvantage as we build future rosters.

3. The ability and willingness to acquire the final piece(s) of the puzzle through trade or free agency. I have never seen this organization willing to pull the trigger on a player that really matters from outside the club. No team in baseball built a champion entirely from within.

The jury is still out on 1 and 3. There have been some encouraging signs from the minor league pitching that we've seen, but it's too early to tell whether they can be trusted to consistently keep a pipeline of good arms flowing. I have even less confidence about 3. They've simply never shown a willingness to go get their guy.

It does appear they're making an effort to be more of a player internationally, which I appreciate. With that said, I agree that there have been some very strange decisions being made in the last several years, and I'm no longer as confident in Elias as I was when he took over.

Time will tell I guess.

[weird-O]

Honestly, I'm less concerned about what year specifically they become a contender, and more concerned about seeing a system put in place that I have confidence can continue to generate contending teams moving forward. The last batch of Orioles playoff contenders under Buck felt a lot like luck to me. They found good players where they didn't expect to, and got some crazy production from unlikely sources. They managed to hold that crew together for a few years, but they did absolutely nothing to augmented or support the those rosters. I remember specifically being furious the year that Duquette was being considered for the Toronto job. They had every chance to add additional pieces to put them over the top, and they did absolutely nothing with that critical offseason. It was then that I realized that the warehouse personnel viewed what was happening as a happy accident, and not something they had expected or had any plans to sustain.

I want to see three things from this regime.

1. The ability to develop quality major league pitching with consistency. I don't need to see aces coming up every year from the minors, but I need to feel confidence that the minor leagues are capable of supplying the big club with good arms to build a rotation around.

2. A meaningful presence in international markets. Many of the best baseball players in the world are not born in the United States, nor do they attend American collegiate baseball programs. I know this is nothing new to anybody here, but if we are not making our presence felt internationally, we will always be at a disadvantage as we build future rosters.

3. The ability and willingness to acquire the final piece(s) of the puzzle through trade or free agency. I have never seen this organization willing to pull the trigger on a player that really matters from outside the club. No team in baseball built a champion entirely from within.

The jury is still out on 1 and 3. There have been some encouraging signs from the minor league pitching that we've seen, but it's too early to tell whether they can be trusted to consistently keep a pipeline of good arms flowing. I have even less confidence about 3. They've simply never shown a willingness to go get their guy.

It does appear they're making an effort to be more of a player internationally, which I appreciate. With that said, I agree that there have been some very strange decisions being made in the last several years, and I'm no longer as confident in Elias as I was when he took over.

Time will tell I guess.

I had the same opinion about the contending team with Buck. After the O's were swept by the Royals in the ALCS, they did nothing to improve. The Royals went on to lose the WS, and immediately added to their roster, so that they could return to the WS. The Royals, of all teams, showed the O's what a winning club does. The Royals... 

 

Like you, the bloom is falling off the Elias rose. As his tenure advances, he looks less and less like the guy in charge, and more like every other GM that has suffered under the Angelos family. He's in the back seat of the car, asking his parents "where are we going". 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Slide I think its a good summation. To me #3 is going to be the critical piece. They had a shot during the run but DD, for whatever reason, didn't go get the pieces they needed to push them over the top. They had the lineup but they relied on the dumpster to try and fill in. And they did well with a couple of guys, especially Cruz. BUT they didn't go get a TOR starter. Would it have made a difference? Never will know.

[Mike B]

I had the same opinion about the contending team with Buck. After the O's were swept by the Royals in the ALCS, they did nothing to improve. The Royals went on to lose the WS, and immediately added to their roster, so that they could return to the WS. The Royals, of all teams, showed the O's what a winning club does. The Royals... 

 

Like you, the bloom is falling off the Elias rose. As his tenure advances, he looks less and less like the guy in charge, and more like every other GM that has suffered under the Angelos family. He's in the back seat of the car, asking his parents "where are we going". 

I was with you until the end.  There is no doubt in my mind that Elias is running the ship.   He certainly has a budget but he is making the moves.  

[BSLChrisStoner]

Like you, the bloom is falling off the Elias rose. As his tenure advances, he looks less and less like the guy in charge, and more like every other GM that has suffered under the Angelos family. He's in the back seat of the car, asking his parents "where are we going". 

 

Elias is the best thing that has happened to the organization in decades, and he's fully in charge of Baseball Ops.  He has not been negatively impacted by Ownership. 

[Mike B]

Elias is the best thing that has happened to the organization in decades, and he's fully in charge of Baseball Ops.  He has not been negatively impacted by Ownership. 

The Angelos mistrust is well earned, but I think Elias sold the sons a process, in his interviews and they bought in.  Time will tell, as to whether he will be successful.

[weird-O]

I was with you until the end. There is no doubt in my mind that Elias is running the ship. He certainly has a budget but he is making the moves.

Elias is the best thing that has happened to the organization in decades, and he's fully in charge of Baseball Ops. He has not been negatively impacted by Ownership.

Thanks for the feedback. I have my doubts that he will be given the resources to compete. But I was probably just in a heightened state of criticism when I posted that. I don't have any faith in the ownership group, zero. But Elias does seem to have decision making authority. I really hope, that the day the O's are poised to compete, and he wants to add an impact, expensive acquisition, that he's just able to do it, and then tell them he did it. Just like most GMs, rather than the Angelos way, where he has to go to their office and plead for the player he wants.

[dude]

I'd like to discuss/respond to posts #61 (Nigel) and #63 (weird-o) but I'm tired of doing it in this thread because they have nothing to do with this thread.

 

If someone wouldn't mind putting them in the Davis thread, delete this and I'll respond to them there, or I'll just skip it. 

[dude]

....
I really hope, that the day the O's are poised to compete, and he wants to add an impact, expensive acquisition, that he's just able to do it, and then tell them he did it. Just like most GMs, rather than the Angelos way, where he has to go to their office and plead for the player he wants.

This is related to this thread.

I'd suggest there are zero teams in MLB, now or really ever, that operate in that way.

No GMs do what they want and, and then tell them they did it with probably any contracts, let alone the biggest ones.

[weird-O]

I'd like to discuss/respond to posts #61 (Nigel) and #63 (weird-o) but I'm tired of doing it in this thread because they have nothing to do with this thread.

 

If someone wouldn't mind putting them in the Davis thread, delete this and I'll respond to them there, or I'll just skip it. 

I don't want to derail the main topic, but it seems like both discussions are being held without one smothering the other. I say share your thoughts. 

[weird-O]

This is related to this thread.

I'd suggest there are zero teams in MLB, now or really ever, that operate in that way.

No GMs do what they want and, and then tell them they did it with probably any contracts, let alone the biggest ones.

Admittedly, my comment was an oversimplification of how things seem to work with most teams.

 

A better way to say it is, most GMs are given a payroll to work with. The owner(s) says they can afford to support a payroll of X, and the GM has the general autonomy to spend that money in the best way possible. And when a major investment is being considered, the GM is going to let ownership know what his plans are.

 

That's never been how this ownership group has operated. This group has long had the reputation for not setting a payroll, and not allowing their GM to do anything without first getting permission. That's why DD got the job, because no active exec, or aspiring GM would voluntarily subject themselves to those conditions.   

[Mike B]

Thanks for the feedback. I have my doubts that he will be given the resources to compete. But I was probably just in a heightened state of criticism when I posted that. I don't have any faith in the ownership group, zero. But Elias does seem to have decision making authority. I really hope, that the day the O's are poised to compete, and he wants to add an impact, expensive acquisition, that he's just able to do it, and then tell them he did it. Just like most GMs, rather than the Angelos way, where he has to go to their office and plead for the player he wants.

I believe Elias is very smart and I am sure he did his homework on the Angelos family, before he took this job.  I am sure he laid out a detailed plan, that entailed cutting the major league team to the bone, financially while investing the money in the farm system, analytic department, international signings, etc.  I believe that the sons have allowed him to do exactly what he planned.

If the team begins to improve, I believe the brothers then take center stage as we see, if they will increase the payroll allowing Elias and company to augment the team.

[BobPhelan]

Elias is the best thing that has happened to the organization in decades, and he's fully in charge of Baseball Ops. He has not been negatively impacted by Ownership.

Completely agree.

[dude]

I don't want to derail the main topic, but it seems like both discussions are being held without one smothering the other. I say share your thoughts. 

 

It's easier to track longer term in the Davis thread.  Not only is it off topic here, but it gets buried in this thread later.

 

If you don't mind, take you referenced comment to the other thread and I'll write too much (again) over there.  Let's delete these posts, here.