578 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Agree. Unless he's a catcher the way Bryce Harper was and nobody expects him to stay there so he's really being drafted as an infielder or something.

Reading some draft profiles it seems like he has the athleticism to move out from behind the plate. Mlb.com made a comparison to Craig Biggio with regards to his athleticism as a C. #13 prospect overall. I still think if they're going to cut a deal they'd do it with an up the middle college player like Cowser, Frelick, or McLain.

[makoman]

HS catcher would be really unusual lately. In the 2000s the only top 10 picks that BR lists as a HS catcher are Mauer (#1/2001) and Kyle Skipworth (#6/2008, 3 career ABs). If you expand to top 20 picks you only get 5 more names, including Brandon Snyder, the most successful being Neil Walker who never played a game at C above AA. 

[Mackus]

Mid-2023 feels a little optimistic for Leiter.  Just from looking at a few recent drafts and how quickly the top drafted college pitchers debuted.  Bolded guys met the pace described.  Less than half of them reached by mid-season 2 years after draft (giving credit for Mize since 2020 was a weird year and Lodolo is at AA so he has a shot to be up in the next two months).  Guess the good news is Vanderbilt guys are 2/2.  SEC guys are 4/5.  Maybe they've got more polish and are closer.

 

2014:

#3 Carlos Rodon, NC St (21 Apr 2015)

#7 Aaron Nola, LSU (21 Jul 2015)

#8 Kyle Freeland, Evansville (7 Apr 2017)

#9 Jeff Hoffman, ECU (20 Aug 2016)

 

2015:

#4 Dillon Tate, UCSB (29 Jul 2019)

#6 Tyler Jay, Illinois U-C (no MLB)

#8 Carson Fulmer, Vanderbilt (17 Jul 2016)

 

2016:

#6 AJ Puk, Florida (21 Aug 2019)

#8 Cal Quantrill, Stanford (1 May 2019)

 

2017:

#2 Hunter Greene, Notre Dame (no MLB)

#5 Kyle Wright, Vanderbilt (4 Sep 2018)

 

2018:

#1 Casey Mize, Auburn (19 Aug 2020)

 

2019:

#7 Nick Lodolo, TCU (no MLB)

 

 

I don't know much about any of the draft prospects, but I'll join in with those that will be disappointed if we pass on either Rocker or Leiter to go underslot, even though I'm a fan of the strategy in general.

[JeremyStrain]

Mid-2023 feels a little optimistic for Leiter. Just from looking at a few recent drafts and how quickly the top drafted college pitchers debuted. Bolded guys met the pace described. Less than half of them reached by mid-season 2 years after draft (giving credit for Mize since 2020 was a weird year and Lodolo is at AA so he has a shot to be up in the next two months). Guess the good news is Vanderbilt guys are 2/2. SEC guys are 4/5. Maybe they've got more polish and are closer.

2014:
#3 Carlos Rodon, NC St (21 Apr 2015)
#7 Aaron Nola, LSU (21 Jul 2015)
#8 Kyle Freeland, Evansville (7 Apr 2017)
#9 Jeff Hoffman, ECU (20 Aug 2016)

2015:
#4 Dillon Tate, UCSB (29 Jul 2019)
#6 Tyler Jay, Illinois U-C (no MLB)
#8 Carson Fulmer, Vanderbilt (17 Jul 2016)

2016:
#6 AJ Puk, Florida (21 Aug 2019)
#8 Cal Quantrill, Stanford (1 May 2019)

2017:
#2 Hunter Greene, Notre Dame (no MLB)
#5 Kyle Wright, Vanderbilt (4 Sep 2018)

2018:
#1 Casey Mize, Auburn (19 Aug 2020)

2019:
#7 Nick Lodolo, TCU (no MLB)


I don't know much about any of the draft prospects, but I'll join in with those that will be disappointed if we pass on either Rocker or Leiter to go underslot, even though I'm a fan of the strategy in general.

Yeah the SEC is considered the most advanced conference so those guys are generally considered a little bit more ready to advance than others. Obviously case by case but it’s a deep and competitive conference.

I think it’ll depend on how many innings they throw this year and where they start next year. If they were to finish the season in A ball, you are asking a lot to go through AA and get to the ML the following. If they start or went to AA early next year, maybe? Would still be aggressive though. Seems like opposite of the course the Os have been taking erring on the side of caution with promotions.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Leiter would start '22 at Aberdeen. 
Mid-year he would be at Bowie. 
Start '23 at AAA, mid-year Orioles. 

 

[Mackus]

Its a reasonable and possible pace, it's just only met by about half the highest drafted college arms.  Shouldn't be the expectation.  It'd be like shooting a score that matches your handicap in golf, that'd be a very good day and not just an average one (this may be a confusing analogy for those who don't know how golf handicaps are calculated and think it's your average score, which it is not, it's more like 80th percentile).

[BSLChrisStoner]

Its a reasonable and possible pace, it's just only met by about half the highest drafted college arms.  Shouldn't be the expectation.  It'd be like shooting a score that matches your handicap in golf, that'd be a very good day and not just an average one (this may be a confusing analogy for those who don't know how golf handicaps are calculated and think it's your average score, which it is not, it's more like 80th percentile).

That makes sense. 

But he (and Rocker) are the highest rated college arms.  In Leiter's case, he figures to have his Dad's experience in his ear. 

Either one would still have to go out and perform, and earn their multiple promotions. 

But imo, that should be the expectation for the perceived best / most advanced college arms in the draft. 

Anything slower than that would be disappointing to me at-least. 

[Mackus]

But imo, that should be the expectation for the perceived best / most advanced college arms in the draft. 

Anything slower than that would be disappointing to me at-least. 

 

But the perceived best / most advanced college arms in the draft routinely do not meet that pace (at least the recent years I looked at and I'd be very surprised if it changed looking further back).

 

Would have to dig in further, but it may be pretty highly correlated that the guys that eventually establish themselves as good starters reach the majors quick and the guys that become RP or worse don't.  There is a very high failure rate even among the best college arms.  Within two years still seems on the quick side, but something close to that may be fairly accurate in terms of a "if they were gonna make it they'd have made it by now" type mentality.

[BSLChrisStoner]

But the perceived best / most advanced college arms in the draft routinely do not meet that pace (at least the recent years I looked at and I'd be very surprised if it changed looking further back).

 

Would have to dig in further, but it may be pretty highly correlated that the guys that eventually establish themselves as good starters reach the majors quick and the guys that become RP or worse don't.  There is a very high failure rate even among the best college arms.  Within two years still seems on the quick side, but something close to that may be fairly accurate in terms of a "if they were gonna make it they'd have made it by now" type mentality.

I would think that would be actual point. 

They are either going to be ready to produce at that point, or their failure rate greatly escalates. 

[Mackus]

I would think that would be actual point. 

They are either going to be ready to produce at that point, or their failure rate greatly escalates. 

 

I'd like to know more before fully endorsing that statement, but I think it is a reasonable thesis.

 

But given that, it still would be optimistic to pencil Leiter in as someone that actually helps 2 years down the road if most guys end up not helping at all (or not very much at all).  Guess it just depends on exactly what you plan for and how much you're relying on having this guy as part of the rotation.  I'm all for hope, and once he gets to the minors and has a year of pro ball under his belt you'll know a lot more, but if there is anything major you are doing or not doing because you now have this top-5 college arm in your system, that's a mistake because the odds are against that guy helping you.  I think it's a better approach to build your team without regard for this draft pick and be pleasantly surprised if he ends up being someone that you can use, rather than pencil him in for a spot and need to scramble to replace him if he ends up not being useful.

 

Hell even Hall and Rodriguez shouldn't be relied upon for much at this point.  We're kind of committed to needing them being good because we don't have anyone else, but that doesn't mean that either are better than 50/50 or so bets of being solid MLB starters.  Leiter and Rocker are currently way more volatile than those two.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If Leiter in particular is there and we pass it pretty much tells me Elias is never going P in the top 10 of a draft unless maybe its a Strasburg type arm. Same may applies for Rocker too, though I dont like him as much as Leiter.

[Mike B]

The Great Keith Law's mock draft.

As usual he takes a veiled shot at the Orioles.

https://theathletic....aws-first-look/

[Mike B]

For those who do not have access to the Athletic, here is the great one's comments.

 

 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School

The current wisdom is that Baltimore will look to cut a deal here that saves them a substantial amount of money, probably a million or more, after they signed their first pick in 2019, Heston Kjerstad, for $2.5 million below slot. They’ve been linked to Brady House, but he has no reason to take that kind of haircut here, since he’s in every mix from here on down.

[Mackus]

This was released about a week ago or so.  I don't see the shot at the O's in that blurb.  Is it elsewhere in the article (couldn't read).

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah, Im saying they do take House. Again, just take one of the top 7 guys.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

If a team is drafting a college senior pitcher (or really any player) in the top 5 or 10 and their expectation isnt that that player is on the big club two seasons later then they should re-evaluate their thinking and training approach.

 

Now that doesn't mean that every player should make that. But if you aren't going in with that mindset them to me something is fundamentally wrong in your system.

[makoman]

If a team is drafting a college senior pitcher (or really any player) in the top 5 or 10 and their expectation isnt that that player is on the big club two seasons later then they should re-evaluate their thinking and training approach.

 

Now that doesn't mean that every player should make that. But if you aren't going in with that mindset them to me something is fundamentally wrong in your system.

 

College senior top 5 picks aren't really a thing, but of the O's top 5 picks ever:

Gregg Olson and Ben McDonald were up the same year drafted. 

 

Jeffrey Hammonds, Matusz, Bundy, and Gausman were up the year after being drafted.

 

Wieters and Machado came up within 2 years of signing. 

 

Loewen was drafted in 2002, didn't sign till 2003, came up in 2006. He was a HSer though.

 

And of course Hobgood never came close.

 

Rutschman will be at 2 years soon, obviously won't be up, but he could certainly start for the O's tonight. Kjerstad has had issues that aren't his or the O's fault.

 

Not saying all of those were necessarily wise, but a pretty good track record of top 5 picks making the majors pretty quickly. 6-10 is much more hit or miss, and Markakis was the only success story. He was up within 3 years of the draft.

[BSLChrisStoner]

ESPN / Kiley McDaniel's Top 150
https://www.espn.com...-month-top-pick

 

1. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit HS (TX), (Vanderbilt commit)
2. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA), (USC commit)

3. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

4. Henry Davis, C, Louisville

5. Brady House, SS, Winder Barrow HS (GA) (Tennessee commit)

6. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

7. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) (N.C. State commit)

 

8. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK) (Ole Miss commit)

9. Sal Frelick, CF, Boston College

10. Colton Cowser, CF, Sam Houston State

11. Benny Montgomery, CF, Red Land HS (PA) (Virginia commit)

12. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (GA) (Georgia Tech commit)

13. Matt McLain, 2B, UCLA

14. Will Taylor, CF, Dutch Fork HS (SC) (Clemson commit)

15. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

16. Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (FL) (Florida commit)

17. Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge HS (IN) (Indiana commit)

18. Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State

19. Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS (GA) (Clemson commit)

20. Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State

21. Jud Fabian, CF, Florida

22. Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines HS (CA) (Cal commit)

23. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

24. Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

25. Cooper Kinney, 3B, Baylor HS (TN) (South Carolina commit)

26. Lonnie White Jr., RF, Malvern Prep HS (PA) (Penn State commit)

27. Tyler Whitaker, RF, Bishop Gorman HS (NV) (Arizona commit)

28. Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep (NJ) (UNC commit)

29. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami

30. Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

31. Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest

32. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Blue Valley Southwest HS (KS) (LSU commit)

33. Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois

34. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami Ohio

35. Gage Jump, LHP, JSerra Catholic HS (CA) (UCLA commit)

36. Connor Norby, 2B, East Carolina

37. Michael Morales, RHP, East Pennsboro Area HS (PA) (Vanderbilt commit)

38. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic HS (CT) (UConn commit)

39. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU

40. Peyton Wilson, 2B, Alabama

41. Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (NY) (Clemson commit)

42. Ethan Wilson, LF, South Alabama

43. Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional HS (NJ) (Florida commit)

44. Dylan Smith, RHP, Alabama

45. Cody Schrier, SS, JSerra Catholic HS (CA) (UCLA commit)

46. Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks HS (CA) (Arkansas commit)

47. Daylen Lile, RF, Trinity HS (KY) (Louisville commit)

48. Josh Baez, RF, Dexter Southfield HS (MA) (Vanderbilt commit)

49. Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton HS (LA) (Arkansas commit)

50. James Wood, RF, IMG Academy HS (FL) (Mississippi State commit)

51. Robert Gasser, LHP, Houston

52. Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida

53. Spencer Schwellenbach, SS/RHP, Nebraska

54. Jackson Baumeister, RHP, Bolles HS (FL) (Florida State commit)

55. Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood HS (TX) (Texas A&M commit)

56. Josh Hartle, LHP, Reagan HS (NC) (Wake Forest commit)

57. Wes Kath, 3B, Desert Mountain HS (AZ) (Arizona State commit)

58. Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee HS (WI) (Alabama commit)

59. Alex Mooney, SS, St. Mary's Prep HS (MI) (Duke commit)

60. Thatcher Hurd, RHP, Mira Costa HS (CA) (UCLA commit)

61. Andrew Abbott, LHP, Virginia

62. McCade Brown, RHP, Indiana

63. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Golden West JC (CA)

64. Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina

65. Mat Nelson, C, Florida State

66. Irv Carter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (FL) (Miami commit)

67. Ryan Bliss,, SS, Auburn

68. John Rhodes, RF, Kentucky

69. Nathan Hickey, C, Florida

70. Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia

71. Braden Montgomery, RF, Madison Central HS (MS) (Stanford commit)

72. Nick McLain, CF, Beckman HS (CA) (UCLA commit)

73. Jay Allen, CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (FL) (Florida commit)

74. Mike Vasil, RHP, Virginia

75. Michael Robertson, CF, Venice HS (FL) (Florida commit)

76. Dominic Hamel, RHP, Dallas Baptist

77. Lorenzo Carrier, CF, Appoquinimink HS (DE) (Miami commit)

78. Doug Nikhazy, LHP, Ole Miss

79. Edwin Arroyo, SS, Central Pointe HS (FL) (Florida State commit)

80. Cody Morissette, 2B, Boston College

81. Will Koger, RHP, Bardstown HS (KY) (Louisville commit)

82. Chad Dallas, RHP, Tennessee

83. Aaron Zavala, RF, Oregon

84. Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park HS (MD) (Kentucky commit)

85. Luca Tresh, C, North Carolina State

86. Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville

87. Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL) (Mississippi State commit)

88. Jac Caglianone, LHP, Plant HS (FL) (Florida commit)

89. Peter Heubeck, RHP, Gilman HS (MD) (Wake Forest commit)

90. Isaiah Thomas, RF, Vanderbilt

91. Troy Melton, RHP, San Diego State

92. Grant Holman, RHP, Cal

93. Ky Bush, LHP, Saint Mary's

94. Landon Marceaux, RHP, LSU

95. Max Ferguson, 2B, Tennessee

96. Sean Burke, RHP, Maryland

97. Carter Jensen, C, Park Hill HS (KS) (LSU commit)

98. Jacob Walsh, 1B, Desert Oasis HS (NV) (Oregon commit)

99. Caedmon Parker, RHP, Woodlands Christian HS (TX) (TCU commit)

100. Kevin Abel, RHP, Oregon State

101. Carter Holton, LHP, Benedictine Military HS (GA) (Vanderbilt commit)

102. Mason Albright, LHP, IMG Academy HS (FL) (Virginia Tech commit)

103. Calvin Ziegler, RHP, TNXL Academy HS (FL) (Auburn commit)

104. Chase Burns, RHP, Beech HS (TN) (Tennessee commit)

105. Roman Kimball, RHP, P27 Academy HS (SC) (Notre Dame commit)

106. Brady Allen, RF, South Carolina

107. Hunter Goodman, C, Memphis

108. Davis Diaz, C, Acalanes HS (CA) (Vanderbilt commit)

109. James Triantos, SS, Madison HS (VA) (North Carolina commit)

110. Jonathan Vastine, SS, Bartow HS (FL) (Vanderbilt commit)

111. Roc Riggio, 2B, Thousand Oaks HS (CA) (Oklahoma State commit)

112. Payton Green, SS, Crossroads Flex HS (NC) (N.C. State commit)

113. Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham

114. Dustin Saenz, LHP, Texas A&M

115. Christian MacLeod, LHP, Mississippi State

116. Wes Clarke, 1B, South Carolina

117. Luke Albright, RHP, Kent State

118. Ryan Holgate, RF, Arizona

119. Eric Hammond, RHP, Keller HS (TX) (USC commit)

120. Christian Franklin, LF, Arkansas

121. Drew Gray, LHP, IMG Academy HS (FL) (Arkansas commit)

122. Chase Silseth, RHP, Arizona

123. Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Washington State

124. Jose Torres, SS, North Carolina State

125. Tyler McDonough, 2B, North Carolina State

126. Jacob Young, CF, Florida

127. Russell Smith, LHP, TCU

128. Bryce Miller, RHP, Texas A&M

129. Justice Thompson, CF, North Carolina

130. Justyn Henry-Malloy, 3B, Georgia Tech

131. Ryan Spikes, SS, Parkview HS (GA) (Tennessee commit)

132. Brock Selvidge, LHP, Hamilton HS (AZ) (LSU commit)

133. Eric Silva, RHP, JSerra Catholic HS (CA) (UCLA commit)

134. Will Frizzell, 1B, Texas A&M

135. Pierce Coppola, LHP, Verona HS (NJ) (Florida commit)

136. Ian Moller, C, Wahlert HS (IA) (LSU commit)

137. Chayce McDermott, RHP, Ball State

138. Cameron Cauley, SS, Barbers Hill HS (TX) (Texas Tech commit)

139. James Tibbs III, RF, Pope HS (GA) (Florida State commit)

140. Coleman Willis, RHP, Houston County HS (GA) (Georgia commit)
141. Ivan Melendez, 3B, Texas

142. Steven Hajjar, LHP, Michigan

143. Ryan Webb, LHP, Georgia

144. Malakhi Knight, CF, Marysville Getchell HS (WA) (UCLA commit)

145. Tommy DiLandri, CF, Palo Verde HS (NV) (TCU commit)

146. Alec Willis, RHP, Regis Jesuit HS (CO) (Minnesota commit)

147. Caleb Roberts, C, North Carolina

148. Mason Miller, RHP, Gardner-Webb

149. Vincent Trapani, RHP, Memorial HS (WI) (Arkansas commit)

150. Hagen Smith, LHP, Bullard HS (TX) (Arkansas commit)

[BobPhelan]

I want Watson.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I like what Ive heard of Watson. Think I like him more than House at this point but what do I know. I think Im out on Rocker. Will be trying to catch the rest of his games going forward. Still am quite inticed by Jobe's profile.