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2021 MLB Draft


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#161 Mackus

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Posted 24 June 2021 - 10:20 AM

"everyone expects" seems like strong wording about what the Orioles might do in terms of gaming the slot system.

 

I didn't as much like spreading last year's slot savings to much later picks.  Getting top-75ish guys in the 4th and 5th in Mayo and Baumler doesn't feel as beneficial as getting top-20 or top-30 guys with your Comp A, 2nd or Comp B range picks.  That's all very rough analysis, maybe Mayo and Baumler were better rated talents than I'm giving credit for (I do really like the profiles for both), but in general if you're going to go underslot with your first pick, which I'm completely fine with, I prefer using the savings sooner than later. 

 

I think being able to sign a 1st round talent with your 2nd round pick is more advantageous than being able to sign a 2nd round talent with your 5th round pick.


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#162 Steve55

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Posted 25 June 2021 - 05:57 AM

"everyone expects" seems like strong wording about what the Orioles might do in terms of gaming the slot system.

 

I didn't as much like spreading last year's slot savings to much later picks.  Getting top-75ish guys in the 4th and 5th in Mayo and Baumler doesn't feel as beneficial as getting top-20 or top-30 guys with your Comp A, 2nd or Comp B range picks.  That's all very rough analysis, maybe Mayo and Baumler were better rated talents than I'm giving credit for (I do really like the profiles for both), but in general if you're going to go underslot with your first pick, which I'm completely fine with, I prefer using the savings sooner than later. 

 

I think being able to sign a 1st round talent with your 2nd round pick is more advantageous than being able to sign a 2nd round talent with your 5th round pick.

 

 

Might have been a one yr thing with the draft being only 5 rds last year. Let's see what happens.



#163 Mike in STL

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Posted 25 June 2021 - 11:18 AM

MLB Network is airing the MLB Draft Combine at 1pm. 

 

Is this a new thing? Or something they always have done but never televised, now hoping to show it the way the NFL shows theirs?

 

Do we get to see prospects taking BP, fielding grounders, throwing bullets from the outfield to home plate, radar guns on the pitchers? 


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#164 Mackus

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Posted 25 June 2021 - 12:17 PM

This is the first one.



#165 BaltBird 24

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Posted 25 June 2021 - 03:45 PM

Sounds boring.

#166 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 25 June 2021 - 04:30 PM

CBS Sports: 2021 MLB Mock Draft: Pirates take prep shortstop No. 1; Vandy's Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter go in top 10
https://www.cbssport...r-go-in-top-10/



#167 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 26 June 2021 - 10:32 AM

FanGraphs: Scouting Three Potential First Round Arms



#168 BobPhelan

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Posted 26 June 2021 - 10:46 AM

We’re doing a draft preview with BSL’s own Stephen Loftus on Monday if anyone wants to submit any questions ahead of time or during the livestream for ‘On the Verge’.
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#169 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 27 June 2021 - 01:26 AM

We’re doing a draft preview with BSL’s own Stephen Loftus on Monday if anyone wants to submit any questions ahead of time or during the livestream for ‘On the Verge’.

Some what if questions.

If Leiter happens to be there at 5 would Baltimore take him or pass? Lets assume the top 4 are Lawler, Mayer, Davis, and Watson.


Lets now assume the top 4 are the same 3 SS and Leiter instead of Davis? Would the Os take Davis.


Finally, best guess in what order do you think the Os rank the 4 prep SS and are all in play for them at 5?
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#170 StephenCLoftus

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Posted 28 June 2021 - 12:14 PM

2021 MLB Draft: The Models, They Are A Changin'

 

https://baltimorespo...-are-a-changin/

 

Published ahead of me being a guest on The Verge this evening.


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#171 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 29 June 2021 - 05:28 PM

CBS Sports: College World Series: Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker? MLB scouts weigh in on Vanderbilt's likely top-10 picks
https://www.cbssport...y-top-10-picks/



#172 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 30 June 2021 - 03:20 PM

MASN: Feeling a draft: Jim Callis on the O’s at No. 5

https://www.masnspor...os-at-no-5.html



#173 StephenCLoftus

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Posted 02 July 2021 - 10:58 AM

Hello all! I have finally made a major update to my blog. In addition to the revamped model and updated scores, I now have individual player pages for every player with a score. Included on the page is biographic info, score components, links to scouting videos if available, and score components and graphs. Hope it will be informative/useful to everyone.

 

https://sabermetrics...om/draft-model/


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#174 Mackus

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Posted 02 July 2021 - 12:30 PM

Really great collection of information, thanks!

 

Curious about your positional model...

 

I completely get how there is a strong percentage that even top-ranked guys shift off of their positions when drafted.  Everyone early is a SS then they become 2B or 3B or LF or whatever.  But you've got around a 10% chance listed for each of the three HS SS to end up as a catcher.  That seems high to me.  I can't recall hearing about any player who was drafted as something other than C and ended up as a C.  I'm sure a few times it's happened, but none are jumping to mind.  All the other positional odds seem reasonable to me, but I feel like the odds of switching to catcher should be near zero for just about everyone unless they play catcher at least part time already.

 

Also, again about the trio of SS, how do you determine if a guy is more likely to switch to 2B vice 3B if they can't handle SS?  CF versus COF?  Is that mostly about the arm?  Their weight?  Speed/agility?



#175 makoman

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Posted 02 July 2021 - 12:47 PM

Jorge Posada was drafted as a SS and played mostly 3B with some C his first year in the minors. That was just one that I knew of.


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#176 StephenCLoftus

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Posted 02 July 2021 - 12:57 PM

So, with the positional model, there are a lot of things that come in play. The biggest thing that adds to the weirds positions and percentages is the fact that HS players are young, leading to higher chances of a wide variety of outcomes. The 2B/3B choice does come down to a mixture of age, BMI, and their interaction (For HS players at least). College we're able to add some info based on assists and fielding percentage.



#177 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 02 July 2021 - 04:26 PM

CBS Sports: MLB Draft 2021: Ranking top 50 players, with two shortstops in top three and Jack Leiter as top pitcher

https://www.cbssport...as-top-pitcher/



#178 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 05 July 2021 - 07:18 AM

Balt SunOrioles reset: 5 questions to determine where the O’s go with fifth pick in 2021 MLB draft



#179 Slidemaster

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Posted 05 July 2021 - 10:04 PM

I fully expect them to take a guy 15 spots too early to try to go above slot later.

I hate that strategy.
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#180 StephenCLoftus

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Posted 06 July 2021 - 06:51 PM

2021 MLB Draft: The Underslot Question

 

https://baltimorespo...rslot-question/


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