441 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

That's not the point, like, at all. 

Sure it is.  You seem to be bashing the idea of high risk/high reward.  That is what this deal is and what all Intl signings are.

 

Seems to me you think Cashner was either worth more than he is or you think they should have brought in lesser talents but guys who are closer to perhaps being something.

 

For a mediocre at best pitcher like Cashner, give me the upside any day of the week.

 

If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that we would get 2 high upside 17 year old players for Cashner, I would have been ecstatic.

[BobPhelan]

If anything, targeting guys this young shows confidence in our scouting and development teams.

[Dystopia]

Sure it is.  You seem to be bashing the idea of high risk/high reward.  That is what this deal is and what all Intl signings are.

 

Seems to me you think Cashner was either worth more than he is or you think they should have brought in lesser talents but guys who are closer to perhaps being something.

 

For a mediocre at best pitcher like Cashner, give me the upside any day of the week.

 

If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that we would get 2 high upside 17 year old players for Cashner, I would have been ecstatic.

We gave up more for Bud Norris than what we got for Cashner and Cashner is better than Norris.

[Mackus]

We gave up more for Bud Norris than what we got for Cashner and Cashner is better than Norris.

Bud Norris had 2 more seasons of control. This is a silly comparison.

Had we traded Cashner for 2 slugs, I don't think many would complain. We got twice for him what we got for Brach last year, basically. Seems reasonable to me. Cashner wasn't worth much at all.

[SportsGuy]

We gave up more for Bud Norris than what we got for Cashner and Cashner is better than Norris.

First of all, Cashner isn’t better than Norris. Pretty comparable though.

Secondly, Norris had multiple years of team control and was making just 3M the year we dealt for him.

And lastly, Duq made a stupid trade in a year where the team wasn’t likely to make the playoffs.

In other words, you are taking about apples and the rest of us are talking about oranges.

[BSLChrisStoner]

First of all, Cashner isn’t better than Norris. Pretty comparable though.

Secondly, Norris had multiple years of team control and was making just 3M the year we dealt for him.

And lastly, Duq made a stupid trade in a year where the team wasn’t likely to make the playoffs.

In other words, you are taking about apples and the rest of us are talking about oranges.

Re: Norris... did play a significant role with the '14 team though.... not enough to still not regret losing Hader, but still. 

 

[SportsGuy]

Re: Norris... did play a significant role with the '14 team though.... not enough to still not regret losing Hader, but still. 
 

Sure..but I think you could have found a similar pitcher to him and still kept Hader, who wasn’t just some after thought of a prospect at that time.

Plus you traded a comp pick.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Sure..but I think you could have found a similar pitcher to him and still kept Hader, who wasn’t just some after thought of a prospect at that time.

Plus you traded a comp pick.

Hader was being talked about some by the time he was traded.  Tucker had a nice scouting report on him. Law said he had starter stuff. 

 

Still he was a 19th round pick the year prior, and while he was having success at Low A... it wasn't crazy to move him. He wasn't an afterthought, but he wasn't some uber prospect either. 



At the end of '12, he was on our 'on the cusp' list, but not in our Top 30.

But to be fair, he was #5 on MLB's list by the middle of '13. Tucker had him 11th.

 

(With his ascent that year ('13) before the trade, maybe they should have held back. I don't know, clearly there was helium there.)

Frankly it's not much different than what the O's got from Boston in this trade.  A young guy showing some signs, that someone liked. 

 

The odds were against Hader becoming anything, but he developed into something awesome. 


These guys the O's just traded for... might be nothing, might be our own lottery tickets. 

 

The comp pick loss sucked. 

 

 

 

*The trade you nailed as being dumb as Davies / Parra.  I thought Parra could help for that Summer ('15), but that was rough. 

 

**Would be nice to have Hader, Davies, E.Rodriguez. 

 

***I make that Rodriguez / Miller trade every time though.

[SportsGuy]

Yea you always make the ERod/Miller deal.

 

The other 2 you don't.  

[SportsGuy]

https://twitter.com/...6188230656?s=20

[SportsGuy]

BTW, not that Cashner is some big deal and we have shown the willingness to trade in the division in the past but its always good to see it when the team doesn't ignore the best talent coming back, no matter who the team is that we are dealing with.

[dude]

If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that we would get 2 high upside 17 year old players for Cashner, I would have been ecstatic.

 

How do we know they are 'high upside"?

 

Boston has probably the worst system in MLB and I don't think these guys were ranked in their top30 (were they already removed?..not in Orioles top30)

 

We don't know what the other offers were so if this was the best deal, whatever (it's an easy comment to hide behind).

It's hard for me to believe, given the needs for pitching out there, that this could possibly be the best offer.

 

Trading for formerly signed International players isn't the same thing as "leveraging the International Market".

 

It does say something when these are the type of guys Elias wants for what is likely his best trade chip this year.

 

I see a number of comments where they say Cashner was a FA.  Cashner has a 10M team option contract for 2020 so if he finsihes the year well, that could actually look like a bargain as an additional year.  Doesn't carry any risk if he doesn't finish strong.  It's actually a good contract position to acquire.

 

My guess is this isn't a deal Elias will be around to account for, so <<shrug>>

[mdrunning]

It sounds as if the Orioles didn't want to risk Cashner's option for 2020, which would become guaranteed if he pitches a little more than 90 innings for the remainder of the season. The Red Sox can manipulate his starts if they don't wish to to see it vest as well. I guess he could serve as a relatively cheap Porcello replacement next season should the Red Sox choose to pick up the option.

 

The Orioles reportedly only had two suitors for Cashner at this stage--the Red Sox and the Phillies. Not exactly a furious bidding war. He's been on a roll lately, to be sure, but even if he had two more solid starts before the deadline, would other teams have suddenly jumped into the fray? Perhaps, but perhaps not. But if he gets blown up in those starts, maybe even the Red Sox stop returning phone calls.

 

It isn't just this year's version of Cashner that contenders are looking at; it's his entire career up to this point. Those numbers say that he's been a slightly above average pitcher over a 10-year career. Teams don't overpay for the Andrew Cashners of the world anymore. 

[hallas]

Sure it is.  You seem to be bashing the idea of high risk/high reward.  That is what this deal is and what all Intl signings are.

 

Seems to me you think Cashner was either worth more than he is or you think they should have brought in lesser talents but guys who are closer to perhaps being something.

 

For a mediocre at best pitcher like Cashner, give me the upside any day of the week.

 

If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that we would get 2 high upside 17 year old players for Cashner, I would have been ecstatic.

 

I consider this to be *very* high risk, and high reward.  We traded a functioning MLB player for 2 lottery tickets.  I'm not that upset, because losing a functioning MLB player doesn't really mean much to us right now, but I can't help but feel like we could have held out for someone a little closer to the show, maybe a prospect with a little less upside in SS-A instead of some (admittedly intriguing) guys in the least competitive league in pro ball.  Based on bonus amounts, Romero is probably around a 7th rounder, and Prado is a >10th rounder.  They have played well, so if you are generous and grade them both as 6th rounders, then there's about a 40-50% chance that one of them gets so much as a cup of coffee, and around a 20% chance that one of them becomes a regular or better.  I would like to think we could have done a bit better than that.  The only way this makes sense is if we need more players to fill out rosters in DSL.

[Dystopia]

Bud Norris had 2 more seasons of control. This is a silly comparison.

Had we traded Cashner for 2 slugs, I don't think many would complain. We got twice for him what we got for Brach last year, basically. Seems reasonable to me. Cashner wasn't worth much at all.

Fair point, I thought Norris had just the one extra year, guess I was wrong. I guess my beef is these guys could have been signed using all that Int money we had saved earlier. Then trade Cashner for a more established prospect or something. I don’t have much expectation for these two players but I hope I’m wrong.

[Mackus]

Fair point, I thought Norris had just the one extra year, guess I was wrong. I guess my beef is these guys could have been signed using all that Int money we had saved earlier. Then trade Cashner for a more established prospect or something. I don’t have much expectation for these two players but I hope I’m wrong.

These specific players likely could not have been signed last July 2nd by the Orioles. Likely committed to the Red Sox long before then.

Your critique sounds more like a continued ripple effect of the overall critique of the Orioles lack of international presence in the past. Which is absolutely a correct critique.

But I think a small amount of international slugs seems like a reasonable return for Cashner. These guys signed for $350k, but they are worth more than the equivalent amount of 2019 slugs because the actual money has already been paid and they have already had some initial success. My very rough guess is that these guys are equivalent to had we gotten $1M or more in allocation for the current or next signing period (at a time when there were still many guys worth spending it on).

It's very likely neither guy ever reaches the majors. But it was always gonna be very likely that the player or players in return for a Cashner rental never made an impact. He has very little trade value.

[SportsGuy]

How do we know they are 'high upside"?

Boston has probably the worst system in MLB and I don't think these guys were ranked in their top30 (were they already removed?..not in Orioles top30)

We don't know what the other offers were so if this was the best deal, whatever (it's an easy comment to hide behind).
It's hard for me to believe, given the needs for pitching out there, that this could possibly be the best offer.

Trading for formerly signed International players isn't the same thing as "leveraging the International Market".

It does say something when these are the type of guys Elias wants for what is likely his best trade chip this year.

I see a number of comments where they say Cashner was a FA. Cashner has a 10M team option contract for 2020 so if he finsihes the year well, that could actually look like a bargain as an additional year. Doesn't carry any risk if he doesn't finish strong. It's actually a good contract position to acquire.

My guess is this isn't a deal Elias will be around to account for, so <<shrug>>

1) You are greatly overvaluing Cashner

2) No matter the state of your minor leagues, it’s pretty rare to immediately see these types of players appear on top 30 lists. The top(expensive) guys will but not the others.

3) They are high upside because they are extremely young, liked by 2 very good groups of FO members/scouting teams and are already performing relatively well. Most of the Intl FA are high upside guys. Lots of factors obviously determine if you become anything but at that age, you just never know.

4) What we know about the other offers is that Elias believed they didn’t have the upside this trade did. Perhaps they could have gotten an A or AA player that has a chance to be some kind of a minor contributor at this level. Maybe a potential reliever or 4th OF type guy.

Look at it another way.

Would you rather trade Cashner for guys like Cody Carroll and Evan Phillips or 2 17 y/o lottery tickets?

I’ll take the younger lottery tickets over the AAAA guys any day of the week.

[SportsGuy]

Outside of his BB rate, Cashner’s peripherals aren’t that good.

They tell you that his ERA is flukey.

If he had a 4.5-5 ERA (which is the area his ERA should be), would you be upset by this return?

[weird-O]

It's easy to say they won't even reach the Majors... not really the point... they're under long-term control, and they have some ceiling. 

Might be nothing. Probably will be nothing.  But they add depth to your system, and that gives you additional options later. (Other trades for one.)

Cashner had a very competitive first half.... but he had an expiring contract, and a long track-record which says what he is.  
He only had so much value. No reason to think we could have gotten more imo.

I haven't read through this thread yet, so this may have already been discussed. I agree with all your points. But Cashner is pitching really, really well, and for a bad team. Boston had a glaring hole in the rotation, and is chasing a WC position (since they're almost certainly out of the ALe race). I think the risk/sacrifice is on them, just like the O's taking Miller from them a few years ago. 

 

I trust the Org knows better than me. But it seems like they should have gotten a bit more substance. 

[Dystopia]

Outside of his BB rate, Cashner’s peripherals aren’t that good.

They tell you that his ERA is flukey.

If he had a 4.5-5 ERA (which is the area his ERA should be), would you be upset by this return?

His FIP is 4.25. Last year was more of an aberration than this year.