79 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

This guy enrages me. He relies way too much on statistics and not about the small stuff like heart and fight in a team.

I have no problem with the reliance use of stats. I believe Law is one of the better analysts out there. What I dislike is the over-the-top arrogance, inability to adjust thoughts, and failure to admit when he might have had something not quite right.

[Luke Jackson]

The rotation (if Tillman is ok), is ok right now as well, especially when Hammel returns. Britton has been strong 3 starts in a row, and his talent is not in question. Gonzalez and Johnson have been at-least competitive. Tillman has been pretty consistent since coming up on Independence Day. Chen (who Law repeatedly said would not be able to compete in the AL East) has been a stabilizing force.

Law said that Wada wouldn't be able to compete in the AL East. He liked the Chen signing, and has said so quite a bit.

[waroriole]

I don't know where Nicky Delmonico got it from but he tweeted at some point and I thought this was good (paraphrasing) -- "Stats are like a girl in a bikini, it tells a lot of the story but not the whole picture."

He got it from my old sig line at OH.

[JeremyStrain]

I have no problem with the reliance use of stats. I believe Law is one of the better analysts out there. What I dislike is the over-the-top arrogance, inability to adjust thoughts, and failure to admit when he might have had something not quite right.

Its a schtick. People think he hates every team like ours. He just errs on the side of negativity. He also doesn't rely as much on stats as people think, he learned a lot from his time in Toronto about getting too hooked on them. It's part of why he actually gets out to see the prospects he writes about.

[Slappy]

Law underestimates certain factors in team building. Depth is one. Manager is another.

Our one-run record under Buck has been remarkable, especially in comparison to overall record. It makes me think the manager might have a meaningful effect on it.

2012 24-7 (.774 vs. .560 overall)
2011 22-22 (.500 vs. .426 overall)
2010 11-5 (.688 vs. .596 overall)

Compared to Trembley...

2010 7-10 (.412 vs. .278)
2009 17-22 (.436 vs. .395)
2008 21-29 (.420 vs. .422)
2007 7-16 (.304 vs. .430)

[BSLChrisStoner]

Law said that Wada wouldn't be able to compete in the AL East. He liked the Chen signing, and has said so quite a bit.

Thanks Luke, I appear to be mistaken. I did recall him being tougher on Wada.

My recollection regarding his comments on Chen, where that while he rated him as one of the Top 20 FA signings, he did not believe he would play in an AL East rotation. I thought he had pointed to Chen's velocity as a reason he liked the signing, then upon seeing Chen's radar reading in Spring; said that Chen was down and this was confirmation of him being likely being a bullpen option only.

I can't find that evidence of those comments anywhere, so that falls on me. My apologies to Law here.

[Luke Jackson]

Thanks Luke, I appear to be mistaken. I did recall him being tougher on Wada.

My recollection regarding his comments on Chen, where that while he rated him as one of the Top 20 FA signings, he did not believe he would play in an AL East rotation. I thought he had pointed to Chen's velocity as a reason he liked the signing, then upon seeing Chen's radar reading in Spring; said that Chen was down and this was confirmation of him being likely being a bullpen option only.

I can't find that evidence of those comments anywhere, so that falls on me. My apologies to Law here.

I have a weird recollection of stuff I read when it comes to baseball. I recall a tweet earlier this summer from Law about Chen. I searched "keith law chen twitter" and boom, it popped up in the second result. Said his stuff was good enough to stick in a rotation and that the league wouldn't "catch up to him": https://twitter.com/...436779552555008

He also did a piece on an O's spring training game which included Wada as the starter. Here's what he said about Wada (http://insider.espn.... ... r-baez-mlb):

"Wada's stuff is very light for a starter in the American League East, with no above-average pitch and a repertoire that will require him to go heavy on off-speed and hope to be precise with his command.

His fastball was 87-89 with little life, but he mixed in a cutter, a splitter, and a change (with the latter two possibly the same pitch). The delivery is exaggerated as we see from most NPB starters, and there is some deception both from the funk in the delivery and the way he hides the ball, but that trick usually won't get you through the league more than once unless you have stuff, and Wada doesn't."

[DJ MC]

It should be mentioned that the attitude expressed by many of the posts in this thread, offered towards Law in emails and tweets and conversations over the course of the season, likely contribute to his forcefulness of opinion.

They talk about the Orioles every day--EVERY DAY--on Baseball Today, and Eric Karabel mentioned (with likely only some hyperbole) that the overwhelming majority of emails they receive involve questions about the lack of respect towards the Orioles. Considering the overall tone of posts here, where most of the people involved are generally intelligent and level-headed toward their team, imagine the tone from the general population.

Law is a scout in addition to being a stats guy, so I trust his opinions on the talent level of this team. I can separate what the team is actually doing from whether they could do it again, and I suggest others do the same. Otherwise there are going to be some deluded and disappointed Orioles fans out there next season.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Like I said, I don't think he's wrong. I just think it's odd that he seems to feel that what the Orioles are doing is downright offensive. Or as some suggest, maybe that's just his schtick to get people talking about him. And based on the feedback they get on the program, and even this thread, it's certainly worked.

[BobPhelan]

Isn't part of the joy in watching sports when the unexplainable things happen? That no matter how things look on paper anything can happen once you get on the field and play the game? Law must be one miserable guy. I see his point but why not say something like "I don't know how they're doing it but it'll be interesting to see if they defy the odds the rest of the way". Oh well, I hope we keep proving him wrong.

[BSLMikeLowe]

He mentioned several times how it was a bad idea to expand the playoffs because now a team like the O's might make it. If they end up winning the AL East, the guy just might have an aneurysm.

[DJ MC]

Isn't part of the joy in watching sports when the unexplainable things happen? That no matter how things look on paper anything can happen once you get on the field and play the game? Law must be one miserable guy. I see his point but why not say something like "I don't know how they're doing it but it'll be interesting to see if they defy the odds the rest of the way". Oh well, I hope we keep proving him wrong.

People get joy out of different things. He has stated several times that he wants to see the best, most-talented teams in the playoffs, and he doesn't believe the Orioles are one of those teams.

[BSLMikeLowe]

People get joy out of different things. He has stated several times that he wants to see the best, most-talented teams in the playoffs, and he doesn't believe the Orioles are one of those teams.

Like I said, he's the guy who boos at the end of Hoosiers.

[RShack]

People get joy out of different things. He has stated several times that he wants to see the best, most-talented teams in the playoffs, and he doesn't believe the Orioles are one of those teams.

Well, isn't that pretty much the same as deciding it based on how teams look on paper? Seems like you could decide the postseason on OD... or am I missing something?

[BSLMikeLowe]

Well, isn't that pretty much the same as deciding it based on how teams look on paper? Seems like you could decide the postseason on OD... or am I missing something?

Not quite the same. I doubt anyone had Oakland as a playoff team to start the season. But looking at them now statistically, it is not hard to see why they presently are where they are. But yeah, using Law's logic they may as well just end the season today, let him personally rank the Top 5 teams in each league, and start the playoffs now before the weather turns cold.

[DJ MC]

Not quite the same. I doubt anyone had Oakland as a playoff team to start the season. But looking at them now statistically, it is not hard to see why they presently are where they are. But yeah, using Law's logic they may as well just end the season today, let him personally rank the Top 5 teams in each league, and start the playoffs now before the weather turns cold.

That's like saying any of us would want to end the season by picking the four best teams in the league and the Orioles no matter their record.

I mean, he's not petitioning the commissioner to ban the Orioles from the postseason because he doesn't feel they deserve it. He's offering his opinion, one that is obviously too on-target for a lot of people.

[BSLMikeLowe]

That's like saying any of us would want to end the season by picking the four best teams in the league and the Orioles no matter their record.

I mean, he's not petitioning the commissioner to ban the Orioles from the postseason because he doesn't feel they deserve it. He's offering his opinion, one that is obviously too on-target for a lot of people.

If the Orioles final record does not merit a playoff appearance, then neither I nor anyone else has grounds to argue.

Keith Law needs to get out of baseball and start following college football. That would be right up his alley.

[BobPhelan]

I mean, he's not petitioning the commissioner to ban the Orioles from the postseason because he doesn't feel they deserve it. He's offering his opinion, one that is obviously too on-target for a lot of people.

I get his point, I just don't see the need for the snark. Whether it was the Orioles in this situation or the Padres a couple years ago, you can't help but root for them to keep defying the odds IMO. If he (and pretty much everyone else) is right, then we'll either fall short or be quick outs in the playoffs. So what if we make the playoffs? How does that taint anything. Did he cry when the Cardinals won it last year over so many more "deserving" teams?

[DJ MC]

Like I said, he's the guy who boos at the end of Hoosiers.

I think the real problem is that when a team in the Orioles' situation is winning, fans simply don't want to hear the truth about talent and future. Which is perfectly fine, and I think he'd tell you the same thing. The problem is attacking the messenger when they are asked to give their opinion on the subject. And since so many people are constantly asking his opinion on the subject he's giving his opinion quite a bit.

[DJ MC]

I get his point, I just don't see the need for the snark.

That's called personality. It is part of why he has that job and others don't: people think he's knowledgeable and entertaining. I sure do.

Whether it was the Orioles in this situation or the Padres a couple years ago, you can't help but root for them to keep defying the odds IMO. If he (and pretty much everyone else) is right, then we'll either fall short or be quick outs in the playoffs. So what if we make the playoffs? How does that taint anything. Did he cry when the Cardinals won it last year over so many more "deserving" teams?

Who says that it taints anything? I don't remember Law saying anything like that. He'd just rather see more talented teams. It's his opinion, and at a basic level it matters as much as your and mine, only people actually want to hear his.