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Ok, we need to talk about Keith Law...


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#1 The Epic

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 12:55 PM

...ok, no, we don't, but still.

http://espn.go.com/e...play?id=8336892

Listen to the first seven or so minutes.

Now, note that I really, really, really like Keith Law...when he isn't talking about the Orioles. Seriously, did someone go #1 in his Corn Flakes? He just talks about them with so much...rage. Absolute rage.

I just don't understand how he can be so defiant.
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#2 Russ

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:18 PM

He can't explain it. Through all of his faith and experience in sabermetrics and scouting, he's at a loss for words when it comes to figuring the Os success.

DD is smarter than Keith Law. DD's made a mockery of Law's long believed truths. And he's mad about it.

#3 Chris B

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:24 PM

...ok, no, we don't, but still.

http://espn.go.com/e...play?id=8336892

Listen to the first seven or so minutes.

Now, note that I really, really, really like Keith Law...when he isn't talking about the Orioles. Seriously, did someone go #1 in his Corn Flakes? He just talks about them with so much...rage. Absolute rage.

I just don't understand how he can be so defiant.


At this point, I'm guessing it was #2.

#4 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:25 PM

He's not entirely wrong, but his total disgust for teams that overachieve is borderline obsessive. I guess his ego just won't allow him to appreciate an underdog that breaks conventional wisdom. His loss, because I think it's one of the most enjoyable things about sports.
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#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:26 PM

"They beat the Yankees.. this is 1/2 the Yankees lineup."

"There is nothing the Orioles can do to convince me they are a good team. They are like the AL's 8th best team."

"I don't think there is a good explanation for the O's playing over their head all season. Can't tell you that I think they are going to collapse."

"Baltimore has been pretty much healthy all year. That is the only reason they have been ahead of Toronto."

"This is why I don't like expanding the playoffs."

"It would be nice if they outscored their opponents on the season."

#6 SportsGuy

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:32 PM

"They beat the Yankees.. this is 1/2 the Yankees lineup."

"There is nothing the Orioles can do to convince me they are a good team. They are like the AL's 8th best team."

"I don't think there is a good explanation for the O's playing over their head all season. Can't tell you that I think they are going to collapse."

"Baltimore has been pretty much healthy all year. That is the only reason they have been ahead of Toronto."

"This is why I don't like expanding the playoffs."

"It would be nice if they outscored their opponents on the season."

They have been without their best starter for the second half of the season...and were without their best hitter for about 5 weeks or so.

So, they haven't been totally healthy but their health has been pretty good overall.

#7 Chris B

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:37 PM

BTW, this can be why sabermetrics guys can be annoying...They stick by their numbers and if anything doesn't go their way, they freak out.

In baseball, a lot can be explained by statistics and history. But, whether you call it luck, destiny, insanity, or armageddon, there does often exist some sort of factor that is inexplicable in trying to describe how a team is winning.

Normally, that factor comes into effect for a few weeks or in stints throughout the season. For the Orioles, it has practicially played through the whole season. (Though to be fair to the ballclub, I wish Keith Law would look at some second-half/post-ASB numbers because they show a better ballclub than before that timeframe.)

#8 RShack

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:44 PM

They have been without their best starter for the second half of the season...and were without their best hitter for about 5 weeks or so.

And their LF'er (who is also one of their better hitters) for so long you forgot about him... and their 2Bman for so long everybody forgot about him... (plus, their 3Bman was injured in that part of the head that told him how to turn batted balls into outs...)

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#9 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:44 PM

They have been without their best starter for the second half of the season...and were without their best hitter for about 5 weeks or so.

So, they haven't been totally healthy but their health has been pretty good overall.


Yeah, that is somewhat fair. Though Reimold could be mentioned, as could having $ tied-up with Roberts, and not really having him available at-all. Have also had time missed with Thome, Reynolds, and Betemit.

Beyond health, it is not like everything has gone right for the O's. Despite Reynolds' surge, most of the year he has been below his career averages. Same for Hardy. Arrieta, and Matusz under-performed.

The biggest complaints about the O's all year, were the defense, sp, the on-base %, and lack of team speed.

The defense has been improved.

The rotation (if Tillman is ok), is ok right now as well, especially when Hammel returns. Britton has been strong 3 starts in a row, and his talent is not in question. Gonzalez and Johnson have been at-least competitive. Tillman has been pretty consistent since coming up on Independence Day. Chen (who Law repeatedly said would not be able to compete in the AL East) has been a stabilizing force.

The on-base % remains a detriment, and a flaw of the roster. However, the slugging % has been moving back-up.

Team speed remains an issue, but Nate improves that some, and Manny does not have + speed, but is not a plodder either. Both (despite Manny being picked off yesterday) have improved the baserunning as a whole.

A team with a competitive rotation, an ability to slug, solid defense, and an excellent bullpen is a solid team.
Since last September, the O's have had one losing Month.

Throwing your hands in the air, and saying the O's are accomplishing what they are doing with smoke and mirrors only is not right.

If he said the O's still have flaws, and lack some of the premier talent of their peers; that would be accurate. His comments above just reek of arrogance. "I'm not going to adjust my opinions, not matter what."

#10 SportsGuy

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:47 PM

And their LF'er (who is also one of their better hitters) for so long you forgot about him... and their 2Bman for so long everybody forgot about him... (plus, their 3Bman was injured in that part of the head that told him how to turn batted balls into outs...)

Both true..but you also have no idea what either would have given you either.

Reimold is far from established and BRob could be done as a productive player anyway.

Chris's point is correct...Law could have phrased it differently and still come up with the same conclusion..just in a more educated and less belittling way.

#11 Oriole85

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:49 PM

He's not entirely wrong, but his total disgust for teams that overachieve is borderline obsessive. I guess his ego just won't allow him to appreciate an underdog that breaks conventional wisdom. His loss, because I think it's one of the most enjoyable things about sports.

I think he hates being wrong and is too stubborn to change. Whenever I've asked him if he would reconsider things such as starting Bundy at AA when he had some bad starts in Frederick, he'd say of course not.

I don't think he *hates* the Orioles like some people do. It just annoys him that they are doing well with all the trash he has said about them.
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#12 RShack

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:50 PM

BTW, this can be why sabermetrics guys can be annoying...They stick by their numbers and if anything doesn't go their way, they freak out.

What you said is right, but it's worse than that (this is not about all saber guys, just the radicals): they don't watch baseball, they mainly watch numbers about baseball. They form all their expectations and opinions based on watching numbers about baseball, not the game itself. Anybody who has actually watched the Oriole play actual baseball doesn't think they're phony.

 "The only change is that baseball has turned Paige from a second-class citizen to a second-class immortal." - Satchel Paige


#13 Oriole85

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:55 PM

"They beat the Yankees.. this is 1/2 the Yankees lineup."

"There is nothing the Orioles can do to convince me they are a good team. They are like the AL's 8th best team."

"I don't think there is a good explanation for the O's playing over their head all season. Can't tell you that I think they are going to collapse."

"Baltimore has been pretty much healthy all year. That is the only reason they have been ahead of Toronto."

"This is why I don't like expanding the playoffs."

"It would be nice if they outscored their opponents on the season."

1.Injuries are part of the game, the Orioles have had their share even if they have stayed relatively healthy (B-Rob, Reimold, Markakis, Hammel). You could make the case the Yanks have more of a margin of error given thier payroll and resources.

2. We've heard that all year

3. see my first point

4. O's are well in the division race, so not buying that so much.

5. They aren't making the run differential playoffs!
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#14 Oriole85

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:57 PM

BTW, this can be why sabermetrics guys can be annoying...They stick by their numbers and if anything doesn't go their way, they freak out.

In baseball, a lot can be explained by statistics and history. But, whether you call it luck, destiny, insanity, or armageddon, there does often exist some sort of factor that is inexplicable in trying to describe how a team is winning.

Normally, that factor comes into effect for a few weeks or in stints throughout the season. For the Orioles, it has practicially played through the whole season. (Though to be fair to the ballclub, I wish Keith Law would look at some second-half/post-ASB numbers because they show a better ballclub than before that timeframe.)

I don't know where Nicky Delmonico got it from but he tweeted at some point and I thought this was good (paraphrasing) -- "Stats are like a girl in a bikini, it tells a lot of the story but not the whole picture."
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#15 RShack

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:58 PM

5. They aren't making the run differential playoffs!

But... But... But... It's a formula!

The truth is, he thinks they should be. If they fit the formula, he'd be completely fine with the whole thing...

 "The only change is that baseball has turned Paige from a second-class citizen to a second-class immortal." - Satchel Paige


#16 BSLMikeLowe

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 02:00 PM

I think he hates being wrong and is too stubborn to change. Whenever I've asked him if he would reconsider things such as starting Bundy at AA when he had some bad starts in Frederick, he'd say of course not.

I don't think he *hates* the Orioles like some people do. It just annoys him that they are doing well with all the trash he has said about them.


I don't think he hates the Orioles in general either, just the 2012 Orioles. He just sounds like a guy who hates all underdogs, basically because they fly in the face of what he preaches is mandatory to be a winner. He spent almost as much time railing on the 2010 Padres and 2006 Cardinals in that piece. I bet he was the guy who stood up in the theater and booed at the end of Hoosiers. Like I said, seems like he misses out on one of the greatest things about sports.

#17 mweb08

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 02:04 PM

I haven't listened to this yet, but I would just like to point out that Law does watch plenty of baseball and he is a scout. So lets consider that when we are bashing sabermetrics guys.

And you have to give him credit for this tweet:

Roger Clemens says he doesn't intend to pitch in the big leagues this year, but I'd like to hear it from a credible source



#18 Moose Milligan

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 02:06 PM

BTW, this can be why sabermetrics guys can be annoying...They stick by their numbers and if anything doesn't go their way, they freak out.


"You know... You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan.""

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#19 Oriole85

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 02:09 PM

I don't think he hates the Orioles in general either, just the 2012 Orioles. He just sounds like a guy who hates all underdogs, basically because they fly in the face of what he preaches is mandatory to be a winner. He spent almost as much time railing on the 2010 Padres and 2006 Cardinals in that piece. I bet he was the guy who stood up in the theater and booed at the end of Hoosiers. Like I said, seems like he misses out on one of the greatest things about sports.

Not sure how much of this he actually wants and how much he is saying it for "show" (Skip Bayless effect). The fact we are discussing at length is exactly what he wants.
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#20 ravens8589

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 02:19 PM

This guy enrages me. He relies way too much on statistics and not about the small stuff like heart and fight in a team.
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