67 replies to this topic

[CA-ORIOLE]

So, according to tonight's broadcast, Buck/RM, have confirmed that Castro will be worked up as a starter for next year. Makes sense.

[bnickle]

The problem is they'll bank on him being a starter

[You Play to Win the Game]

The problem is they'll bank on him being a starter

I don't see a realistic or even sensible way to NOT bank on him. Having to find 2 starters (plus depth) sounds exponentially better than needing 3.

The bigger problem is his innings IMO. But hopefully he's good enough as a starter to turn that into a real frustration.

[bnickle]

Can't just hand him a rotation spot. Earn it.

[CA-ORIOLE]

An option next year would help. I assume he's out next year.  

[SportsGuy]

Can't just hand him a rotation spot. Earn it.

This is correct.

You don't go into the offseason with him slotted as a starter and just assume he will be fine. If you want him battling for a spot and he earns it, so be it.

[CA-ORIOLE]

This is correct.

You don't go into the offseason with him slotted as a starter and just assume he will be fine. If you want him battling for a spot and he earns it, so be it.

Well, who is is competition?

 

1. You sign more FA pitchers whose contracts generally freakin suck and will require multiple years. Once you have them they are on the 25 man roster for better or worse (usually worse). 

2. You give out 1 year deals to the likes of Tillman/Miley or similar (likely worse guys) in FA.

3. You get guys with some ML experience like Asher/Ynoa/Colon etc. on Mil contracts who are either fringe or are going down the toilet.

4. You trade good prospects for optionable ML ready pitching (probably not an options for us considering our Mil depth).

5. You trade talent for established ML pitching (also not an option and probably a crapshoot).

6. You have Mil talent already in the system to compete with him (we don't have any, at least any that are ready).

 

I agree he shouldn't be handed a SP job in the offseason, but barring injury or a complete breakdown in ST I don't think he should have much to worry about. 

[Mike B]

Castro has talent.  He should be considered as part of the depth, instead of part of the  rotation.

 

Hopefully this year has taught them, that you can not count on 5, especially when the farm system does not have one viable option to replace any of the 5 starters.

 

In addition, counting on poor pitchers like UJ, and Miley and hoping Tillman suddenly got healthy, doomed this season.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I get it... that he SHOULD be considered depth, not just handed a spot... but have you seen our organizational pitching depth? Let's be real here. You all know just as well as I do that he'll be penciled in as a starter heading into camp next spring... and barring some bizarrely awful ST, will definitely be given a spot.

[Mackus]

Well, who is is competition?

 

1. You sign more FA pitchers whose contracts generally freakin suck and will require multiple years. Once you ahve them tehry on the 25 man roster for better or worse (usually worse). 

2. You give out 1 year deals to the likes of Tillman/Miley or similar (likely worse guys) in FA.

3. You get guys with some ML experience like Asher/Ynoa/Colon etc. on Mil contracts who are either fringe or are going down the toilet.

4. You trade good prospects for optionable ML ready pitching (probably not an options for us considering our Mil depth).

5. You trade talent for established ML pitching (also not an option and probably a crapshoot).

6. You have Mil talent already in the system to compete with him (we don't have any, at least any that are ready).

 

I agree he shouldn't be handed a SP job in the offseason, but barring injury or a complete breakdown in ST I don't think he should have much to worry about. 

 

The problem is Castro is one of the guys in Option 3.  Just add him to that list of names with Wilson, Wright, Verrett, Aquino, etc.  He's probably at the front of the list, but that's the tier he's on, IMO.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I get it... that he SHOULD be considered depth, not just handed a spot... but have you seen our organizational pitching depth? Let's be real here. You all know just as well as I do that he'll be penciled in as a starter heading into camp next spring... and barring some bizarrely awful ST, will definitely be given a spot.

The Mil pitching talent may not be that bad. But nothing appears like its going to be ready next year.

[CA-ORIOLE]

The problem is Castro is one of the guys in Option 3.  Just add him to that list of names with Wilson, Wright, Verrett, Aquino, etc.  He's probably at the front of the list, but that's the tier he's on, IMO.

Castro at the top of that list is an understatement imo. More like a god nugget in a pile of shit. No way Castro can be considered for the 3 spot and there is no guarantee of success either. He simply has tools/ability that others don't. They are gong to have to consider bringing Tillman/Mile or both back on 1 year deals imo. Both have had reasonable levels of success and Miley is nowhere near as bad as people make him out to be (could easily see him getting the walk rate down). On 1 year deals, both are better than more risky mediocre FA pitching with multi-year deals and adjusting to a new pitching coach. Maybe I'm in on Cobb (don't see it happening) or they trade Britton for something.  Other than that I pray they don't trade any good young talent for ML pitching. 

[McNulty]

I don't look at it as 'counting on him'.  If Castro was on another team, this is exactly the kindve guy we'd be beating the drum for on this message board as a great upside arm.  Instead of GO GET COBB ad naseum, we'd hear Castro instead.

 

I'm more than fine penciling him into the rotation for next year, but as always, they need 7-8 solid options in the non-Ynoa/Wright/Wilson category.  

[Mackus]

Castro has a 5.18 K/9, 3.45 B/9, and 0.92 HR/9.

5.18 K/9 is extremely low. League average for starters is 7.95, 8.96 for relievers. Not getting strikeouts is a very bad sign for a pitcher. And Castro doesn't make up for it with an extremely high GB-rate or a funky delivery or being a knuckeballer, which are about the only types of guys who have consistent success with extremely low K-rates.  Of the 314 pitchers with over 50 IP this season, Castro has the 13th lowest K-rate. 

The walk-rate is fine. League average for starters is 3.15, 3.55 for relievers.

The HR-rate is quite good. League average for starters is 1.35, 1.17 for relievers. However, he's had the benefit of a very fortunate HR/FB%, his is 9.7% compared to a league average of 13.8%.

He also has an extremely low BABIP, which makes sense considering his low K-rate but very solid ERA. His BABIP is 210, league average is 298. I don't see that as being sustainable.

And, he's had a fairly high LOB%, 79.5% compared to league average of 72.6%. Meaning he's been able to strand a much higher rate of runners he allows than most pitchers. Maybe that's a skill, but I don't think it is.

Maybe he can be a passable 5th starter, but I think he ends next season being firmly lumped in the "acceptable RP, not a SP option" category. I'd be very surprised if he has an ERA under 5 as a starter. Of course an ERA of 5 would be in contention to be our #3 this season, but that doesn't make him an acceptable option heading into the season, IMO.

[CA-ORIOLE]

The peripheral aren't good. That said they are small sample and you really need to look beyond that to the talent and bigger picture with projectability. Like I've said before, I do think you need to focus on the sinker and improving the GB rate. I think that's the key to his future success. Along with continued improvement with slider  and CH he is far and above anything we have available. 

[Mackus]

I can see the talent and the arm.  That isn't a good enough reason to hand him a rotation spot.

 

Not finding better options and giving Castro a spot to begin the year will be no less of a failure in my eyes than handing Ubaldo and Tillman spots was this season.  Sure, there is the chance it works out just fine (and at least in Castro's case if it does, there is ample long-term benefit), but it more than likely is going to be a big problem.  These are mistakes you should be able to see coming and avoid making.  There is nothing wrong with Castro as the long man, stretched out more than he was this season, and able to step in as our 6th starter if we need a spot start or someone inevitably gets hurt or struggles and needs to be replaced.  That's the right role for him based on his talent, his resume, and his performance this season.  Expecting him to make 25+ starts for you is begging for problems, IMO.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I can see the talent and the arm.  That isn't a good enough reason to hand him a rotation spot.

 

Not finding better options and giving Castro a spot to begin the year will be no less of a failure in my eyes than handing Ubaldo and Tillman spots was this season.  Sure, there is the chance it works out just fine (and at least in Castro's case if it does, there is ample long-term benefit), but it more than likely is going to be a big problem.  These are mistakes you should be able to see coming and avoid making.  There is nothing wrong with Castro as the long man, stretched out more than he was this season, and able to step in as our 6th starter if we need a spot start or someone inevitably gets hurt or struggles and needs to be replaced.  That's the right role for him based on his talent, his resume, and his performance this season.  Expecting him to make 25+ starts for you is begging for problems, IMO.

So assuming Casto is just a secondary plan/consideration as SP role next year, what would be your primary plan for the SP next year? 

[Mackus]

So assuming Casto is just a secondary plan/consideration as SP role net year, what would be your plan for the SP next year? 

 

Beg, borrow, steal the best options I can find and am allowed to afford.

 

It's not an easy task.  I expect us to have multiple guys that I don't consider acceptable options in the rotation to begin next season.  Even teams that have resources and aren't risk-averse would have a hard time finding three new starting pitchers.  I'm not expecting the Orioles to enter next season with a rotation I'm happy about.  There are a few free agents that I think could work if we are either allowed to spend in the top of the market or perhaps middle-tier guys who might be slightly more reasonable risks than the average guy in that category.  I don't know who will be available in salary dump trades, but I expect that to be the area that leads to the most realistic place for us to find halfway decent pitching at prices we can stomach.

 

If Castro is the best option for one of those spots, then so be it, he's the best option.  I just don't think he reaches the minimum threshold of something we should be content with.  I'd work as hard as I can to find 5 better options.

[Mackus]

Without much thought or deep digging...

 

Masahiro Tanaka (if he opts out), Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, Matt Moore (if optioned declined), Michael Pineda, Jason Vargas are all names I'd kick tires on at various price points across the market.  That's not an exhaustive list.  Many of these guys are big risks and many of them will be scarily expensive even with that risk.  I think I'm willing to gamble pretty heavily on signing a couple guys and taking one last big run at it in 2018.  If the 3-4 years after that are riddled with bad contracts, I think it's worth the shot at something hopefully special in 2018.

[McNulty]

Mack, you make good points, but finding a league average-ish 4th starter type at the league minimum is a much better investment than mid-tier starters.  Tanaka maybe, but he's never going to pass our physical and not many pitchers (if any) want to pitch at Camden.  

 

I'd rather go big on Darvish and fill in the rest with fungible types.  With a different owner maybe we could try something different.