143 replies to this topic

[DJ MC]

Same point that means a team selling this year, with that 2nd WC will be less likely to trade guys with more than 1 year of control because they could compete next year themselves. SD is a good example there. New owners approved today means extensions will be offered now and in that pitching park they could compete next year fairly easy.

Which will continue to raise the price for talent on the market.

I also wouldn't be so sure about San Diego. They might want to go full-rebuild around the hauls from the Latos and Gonzalez deals and whatever they can get for Headley. Plus, we have seen new owners come to the Padres before. I'll believe this one has the deep pockets others were supposed to have but didn't when I see it.

[SportsGuy]

Let's say the Orioles traded for him and he is open to signing an extension or is open to signing here in the offseason.

What is the most you would give him?

[Mackus]

He's not as good, nor as young, as Matt Cain. Cain signed a 6/$127M deal entering his age 27 year. Greinke will be entering his age 29.

I would go up to about 5/$100M for Greinke. I would expect we'd start with an offer of something like 4/$72M. He'll probably start off asking for a bit more than Cain (6/$132M). Meet halfway in the middle at 5/$100M.

Probably overpaying for what he'll give you during the contract (especially the 5th year), but barring an injury I don't think it'll be a catastrophic deal by any means.

[SportsGuy]

He's not as good, nor as young, as Matt Cain. Cain signed a 6/$127M deal entering his age 27 year. Greinke will be entering his age 29.

I would go up to about 5/$100M for Greinke. I would expect we'd start with an offer of something like 4/$72M. He'll probably start off asking for a bit more than Cain (6/$132M). Meet halfway in the middle at 5/$100M.

Probably overpaying for what he'll give you during the contract (especially the 5th year), but barring an injury I don't think it'll be a catastrophic deal by any means.

Umm, how is he not as good as Cain?

He K's more batters, walks as many or fewer, similar HRs, better FIP and xFIP, is more of a GB pitcher, missing bats at same right, throws same amount of strikes and gets more first pitch strikes.

He is older but I don't think he signs for much less, if less at all, than what Cain got.

[Mackus]

Umm, how is he not as good as Cain?

He K's more batters, walks as many or fewer, similar HRs, better FIP and xFIP, is more of a GB pitcher, missing bats at same right, throws same amount of strikes and gets more first pitch strikes.

He is older but I don't think he signs for much less, if less at all, than what Cain got.

He hasn't been as consistent as Cain, which I put a lot of emphasis on. I didn't look too far into their stats, just glanced at ERA+ and IP mostly.

I think I'll still say that 5/$100M or so is what I'd be willing to pay him. Wouldn't hate going $1-3M more per year so much, but don't want to give him a 6th year.

I think he gets somewhere in between what Cain got and what CJ Wilson got, although that's a fairly big range.

[LanceRinker]

Well, a fair deal for someone of Greinke’s particular talent level and age would probably be somewhere around what Matt Cain recently got from the San Francisco Giants. Cain is making $15MM dollars this season and will earn $20MM per year through 2017 under his extension.

I’m not stating that I see Greinke signing a deal as rich as Cain’s is, but I do think he could easily sign a contract in the six years and $114MM range on the open market.

If it were me, I'd break the organizational rule of no long-term contract for pitchers and offer him 6/$114MM.

[SportsGuy]

He hasn't been as consistent as Cain, which I put a lot of emphasis on. I didn't look too far into their stats, just glanced at ERA+ and IP mostly.

I think I'll still say that 5/$100M or so is what I'd be willing to pay him. Wouldn't hate going $1-3M more per year so much, but don't want to give him a 6th year.

I think he gets somewhere in between what Cain got and what CJ Wilson got, although that's a fairly big range.

Well, let's not forget that Cain has been pitching in the very cushy NL West, in a great pitchers park and Greinke was in the AL.

[Mackus]

Well, let's not forget that Cain has been pitching in the very cushy NL West, in a great pitchers park and Greinke was in the AL.

I certainly didn't look very deeply into the stats to break down who is better, just looked at the raw numbers. Cain wins out on ERA and IP. Agree completely that he's in an easier situation. Given his age, I'd still be very surprised if Greinke gets a contract like Cain did. I can see Hamels getting that contract, but not Greinke.

The 6th year scares me, I'd really try to find a way to avoid it. I don't entirely know what I'd do if the decision is to match Cain's deal or pass completely.

[Greg Pappas]

I echo Mackus' sentiments regarding what I'd do... 5/100, with the possibility of going a bit over per year.

[SportsGuy]

I certainly didn't look very deeply into the stats to break down who is better, just looked at the raw numbers. Cain wins out on ERA and IP. Agree completely that he's in an easier situation. Given his age, I'd still be very surprised if Greinke gets a contract like Cain did. I can see Hamels getting that contract, but not Greinke.

The 6th year scares me, I'd really try to find a way to avoid it. I don't entirely know what I'd do if the decision is to match Cain's deal or pass completely.

Also, if you trade 2 of Arrieta, BMat and Britton to get him, does that put my pressure on you to sign him...not only because of the size of the package but because it depletes your pitching?

[Mackus]

Also, if you trade 2 of Arrieta, BMat and Britton to get him, does that put my pressure on you to sign him...not only because of the size of the package but because it depletes your pitching?

Should it? No. Does it? Definitely.

It's really counter-intuitive though. You trade all this talent to acquire him, and then you actually become willing to pay even more to keep him than you would just to sign him in order to justify giving up the talent.

[LanceRinker]

Also, if you trade 2 of Arrieta, BMat and Britton to get him, does that put my pressure on you to sign him...not only because of the size of the package but because it depletes your pitching?

I don't believe it would take two of Arrieta, BMat and Britton to get him.

The Brewers will get one of the three, and it's likely between Arrieta and BMat.

[SportsGuy]

Should it? No. Does it? Definitely.

It's really counter-intuitive though. You trade all this talent to acquire him, and then you actually become willing to pay even more to keep him than you would just to sign him in order to justify giving up the talent.

Im not disagreeing with you.

However, if you are willing to go say, 5/110 and Greinke says no, it will take 6/127...do you say no to that 1/17 or do you say, I have to do this since I traded all that talent?

Whether you make or miss the playoffs, the pressure is on you to sign him.

[SportsGuy]

I don't believe it would take two of Arrieta, BMat and Britton to get him.

The Brewers will get one of the three, and it's likely between Arrieta and BMat.

You better be giving up a lot more.

We aren't the only team gunning for him.

[Mackus]

I don't believe it would take two of Arrieta, BMat and Britton to get him.

The Brewers will get one of the three, and it's likely between Arrieta and BMat.

I agree with SG here. I think it will actually take more than two of those guys, or more specifically, one of those guys and Schoop. Even if we're 10 over at the deadline, I wouldn't make that trade.

It's true that the new CBA makes rentals less valuable since you can't offer them arbitration, but the second wild card adds in so many more potential teams to the race that there is both more demand and less supply.

[SportsGuy]

BTW, I hate 5+ year contracts to any pitcher at any point in their careers.

However, with Bundy and Machado coming and the Orioles having some momentum and seemingly gaining more talent, I may be inclined to go 5-6 years for Greinke...Agree with AS that I wouldn't do it for Hamels though.

Plus, you only have Nick and Wieters for another 2-3 years guaranteed.

Your window of oppurtunity is getting there.

[LanceRinker]

You better be giving up a lot more.

We aren't the only team gunning for him.

Well of course more would be given up, but I don't think it would take a package that includes two of those three starters. I think one of them would be made the center piece of the deal and if a deal were consummated then I believe it would be Matusz.

He's only 25 years old and can't become a free agent until 2016. The Brewers want young, controllable players in return - correct?

Rick Kranitz is also the pitching coach there - BMat and him had a great relationship when he was our pitching coach and had his best season under his guidance - 2010. That's why I believe they'll want Matusz.

I wrote up a whole piece about what kind of package the O's could put together for Greinke here: http://burningdowntheyard.com/?p=2811

But in short - here is what I proposed -

With Matusz as the centerpiece of the package to acquire Greinke, other prospects of note that would be intriguing to the Brewers (that the Orioles would be willing to give up) are possibly L.J. Hoes, Joe Mahoney, Xavier Avery, and even a Parker Bridwell type. I’m not saying that it would take all of these prospects, along with Matusz, to get a deal done but I could see any of these prospects included in a package for Greinke.

[SportsGuy]

Well of course more would be given up, but I don't think it would take a package that includes two of those three starters. I think one of them would be made the center piece of the deal and if a deal were consummated then I believe it would be Matusz.

He's only 25 years old and can't become a free agent until 2016. The Brewers want young, controllable players in return - correct?

Rick Kranitz is also the pitching coach there - BMat and him had a great relationship when he was our pitching coach and had his best season under his guidance - 2010. That's why I believe they'll want Matusz.

I wrote up a whole piece about what kind of package the O's could put together for Greinke here: http://burningdowntheyard.com/?p=2811

But in short - here is what I proposed -

Yea, there is no chance you get Greinke(unless the Brewers absolutely love Matusz over anyone else they can get) for that entire package, much less just some of it.

Atlanta is potentially willing to put up some of their young pitching for him...the Orioles can't really match them and if they can, you better believe 2 of our young starters would have to be in the deal.

[SammyBirdland]

I can't imagine a universe where the Orioles land Greinke.

[LanceRinker]

I can't imagine a universe where the Orioles land Greinke.

lol, but how many of us could imagine a universe where the Orioles were competing for a playoff spot this season?