143 replies to this topic

[LanceRinker]

People thinking this is going to take a fortune are going to be really surprised. Since the compensation has changed, returns for pending FA are going to be much less. Matusz + a couple mid level guys should get it done.

I think some people assume the Brewers will be able to get the same kind of package for Greinke that they gave up to get him and it's not happening.

Even with Greinke agreeing to an extension it won't take much more than a deal involving Matusz, Hoes/Avery and a PTBNL. I threw Mahoney in to be nice.

[LanceRinker]

I think you'll see the Braves or Orioles part with somebody that people wouldn't want to give up.

Remember it took Lino+ to get Thome.

The Greinke market will be diluted some but there are a bunch of mid-market competitive teams that could raise the price.

Greinke on the market will certainly hurt the Cubs with Garza and Dempster.

Garza is considered to be more valuable than Greinke because he's under team control for an extra year beyond this one.

I'm also not so sure there are going to be a ton of teams that will artificially inflate Greinke's value as a trade commodity for the Brewers.

Any team in the NY or BOS area will not be going after him because of possible transition issues to those markets. Same could be said for any L.A. based team/market.

How many teams in mid-sized markets are left that could make a legitimate offer for Greinke?

By my count there are four:

Braves
Cardinals
Indians
Orioles

I really doubt the Brewers would trade Greinke to the Cardinals. Let's take them out for the sake of this example.

The Braves are probably the next strongest suitor for Greinke behind the Orioles. As far as the Indians are concerned, I doubt they pull something off for Greinke - not based on anything I've read or heard, just a hunch.

That (hypothetically) leaves the Braves and Orioles to figure out who wants to offer the strongest package and also pay the money it'll take to keep him there beyond this season. The Braves aren't going to pay Greinke the contract he's going to want/command - Duquette has already gone on record and said that ownership has given him the go-ahead to add payroll this year and beyond.

I'm thinking advantage O's if we really do want him.

[JTrea81]

Garza is considered to be more valuable than Greinke because he's under team control for an extra year beyond this one.

I'm also not so sure there are going to be a ton of teams that will artificially inflate Greinke's value as a trade commodity for the Brewers.

Any team in the NY or BOS area will not be going after him because of possible transition issues to those markets. Same could be said for any L.A. based team/market.

How many teams in mid-sized markets are left that could make a legitimate offer for Greinke?

By my count there are four:

Braves
Cardinals
Indians
Orioles

I really doubt the Brewers would trade Greinke to the Cardinals. Let's take them out for the sake of this example.

The Braves are probably the next strongest suitor for Greinke behind the Orioles. As far as the Indians are concerned, I doubt they pull something off for Greinke - not based on anything I've read or heard, just a hunch.

That (hypothetically) leaves the Braves and Orioles to figure out who wants to offer the strongest package and also pay the money it'll take to keep him there beyond this season. The Braves aren't going to pay Greinke the contract he's going to want/command - Duquette has already gone on record and said that ownership has given him the go-ahead to add payroll this year and beyond.

I'm thinking advantage O's if we really do want him.

Don't count out the Rangers, Pirates, Giants, DBacks, Jays and the Tigers.

Plenty of teams are still in it that qualify as a smaller market.

[JeremyStrain]

I think you'll see the Braves or Orioles part with somebody that people wouldn't want to give up.

Remember it took Lino+ to get Thome.

The Greinke market will be diluted some but there are a bunch of mid-market competitive teams that could raise the price.

Greinke on the market will certainly hurt the Cubs with Garza and Dempster.

That could actually be a reason to do it and act quickly if you think about it. If they set the market quickly and lower than one might imagine, it sets it lower for the Cubs and Garza (all things relative because of the team control) but whatever CHC gets in return is going to play against the Brewers for years, so I'm sure they don't want to see them get a great haul whether they can affect it or not.

[JeremyStrain]

Don't count out the Rangers, Pirates, Giants, DBacks, Jays and the Tigers.

Plenty of teams are still in it that qualify as a smaller market.

Difference in a small market from ZG's point of view and what you perceive as a mid-small market team. TEX is a favorite for the WS and is in the media spotlight, not really a small market. DET is also a major market, people just can't afford to go to games there. TOR is another country, and the only one Canada has in baseball, so they get more coverage than you think. Wouldn't rule them out though.

I think SEA is going to make a play for either Grienke or Hamilton this offseason, as well as FLA and the Dodgers on Hamilton (I don't think either will sign in LA though).

[DJ MC]

Trade rumors do have effects on clubs. The team played so well at the AS Break and rumors were flying about acquiring reinforcements yet each day nothing was done. There was no confidence shown in that squad so they pretty much lost their motivation to win IMO.

Add the Raffygate stuff that was swirling and it just made things that much worse. Had the team traded for Burnett and Lowell and made some other moves, who knows how things would have turned out even with the B-12 mess?

First of all, that team was done well before the break. They won on June 21 to go fourteen games over .500, then went 5-12 the rest of the way until the break, then 4-13 until the deadline. So they didn't make the moves because they were in fourth place and two games under by the time the deadline rolled around.

Second, the system in 2005 was worse than the present one. Going into the season, only Markakis and Penn were top-100 prospects and Nick was the highest at #65. Loewen and Reimold would go on the list for the next season, but there wasn't much else behind them.

The faults of that 2005 team have very little to do with the trades they didn't make and a lot more to do with the injuries to Lopez and Bedard, the fallout from Palmeiro, and the complete failures of Lopez and Ponson in the rotation and Sosa in the lineup.

[DJ MC]

Don't count out the Rangers...

I know you didn't just call a team in a giant metropolitan area with an exploding fanbase and a brand-new obscene television deal a small market.

[SportsGuy]

To get Greinke to avoid free agency, you have to START with the Cain contract.

Unless the Brewers don't like him, Schoop would have to be in the deal if Bundy or MM are off the table. There are enough suitors out there for Greinke where he would need to be in the deal.

[JeremyStrain]

To get Greinke to avoid free agency, you have to START with the Cain contract.

Unless the Brewers don't like him, Schoop would have to be in the deal if Bundy or MM are off the table. There are enough suitors out there for Greinke where he would need to be in the deal.

Not if there is a chance he might walk.

[SportsGuy]

Not if there is a chance he might walk.

Guarantee you are wrong there. Milwaukee will get at least 1 top 50ish prospect for Greinke...unless of course they get some 0-3 players..likely guys who have even top prospects recently.

[DJ MC]

Not if there is a chance he might walk.

It doesn't matter. That just means the Orioles will be out of the running.

There is a difference this season because of the lack of compensatory picks for team who acquire these players. However, for a team that is finished with their building and going all-in for a championship (which not a single one of us, not even Trea, seriously believes is the case in Baltimore), that is a price they will be willing to pay.

[SportsGuy]

And if you do get Greinke, you better get Headley as well.

[JeremyStrain]

Guarantee you are wrong there. Milwaukee will get at least 1 top 50ish prospect for Greinke...unless of course they get some 0-3 players..likely guys who have even top prospects recently.

Careful with that g-word, the game has changed since the cba.

[SportsGuy]

Careful with that g-word, the game has changed since the cba.

Teams still want titles..that's why he fetches a good package.

[Ovechkin8]

Anybody that thinks Greinke will negotiate with anybody is insane. "Gee talk to one team that I have no attachment to for 48 hours or 30 teams for 2 months? Gee that's a toughie" Even as a rental I'd offer Britton,Schoop and Matusz and offer him the moon on day 1 of FA.

[JeremyStrain]

It doesn't matter. That just means the Orioles will be out of the running.

There is a difference this season because of the lack of compensatory picks for team who acquire these players. However, for a team that is finished with their building and going all-in for a championship (which not a single one of us, not even Trea, seriously believes is the case in Baltimore), that is a price they will be willing to pay.

With the increasing importance placed on low cost prospects and the inability to buy overslots or intl free agents, you are going to see much less given up for rentals especially.

[JeffLong]

With the increasing importance placed on low cost prospects and the inability to buy overslots or intl free agents, you are going to see much less given up for rentals especially.

I agree and disagree. I think you're underestimating the impact that the 2nd wild card will play. Sure, the new CBA means rentals will require less. But at the same time you're going to have more buyers and less sellers. Simple economics will tell you that drives prices up.

I think at the end of the day we'll see slightly less going for "rentals" but guys with 1 or 2 years left will command more on the market than they would have before.

[Chris B]

Anybody that thinks Greinke will negotiate with anybody is insane. "Gee talk to one team that I have no attachment to for 48 hours or 30 teams for 2 months? Gee that's a toughie" Even as a rental I'd offer Britton,Schoop and Matusz and offer him the moon on day 1 of FA.

That is entirely too much to give up for 13-15 Greinke starts over the course of the rest of the year.

[SportsGuy]

Anybody that thinks Greinke will negotiate with anybody is insane. "Gee talk to one team that I have no attachment to for 48 hours or 30 teams for 2 months? Gee that's a toughie" Even as a rental I'd offer Britton,Schoop and Matusz and offer him the moon on day 1 of FA.

And what does that do for us when we miss the playoffs?

We can offer him the moon in the offseason anyway.

[JeremyStrain]

I agree and disagree. I think you're underestimating the impact that the 2nd wild card will play. Sure, the new CBA means rentals will require less. But at the same time you're going to have more buyers and less sellers. Simple economics will tell you that drives prices up.

I think at the end of the day we'll see slightly less going for "rentals" but guys with 1 or 2 years left will command more on the market than they would have before.

Same point that means a team selling this year, with that 2nd WC will be less likely to trade guys with more than 1 year of control because they could compete next year themselves. SD is a good example there. New owners approved today means extensions will be offered now and in that pitching park they could compete next year fairly easy.