374 replies to this topic

[McNulty]

Here's yet another thing no one is talking about.  The 69th pick was a comp pick for failing to sign Hughes last year.  Meaning, you sign Dietz or you get nothing there.  

 

There are so many factors are play here.  Its truly ridiculous to nitpick with their selections.  I mean truly.  

[You Play to Win the Game]

Oh come on now... If that were an actual rule your post count would be cut in half. No one's suggesting that. You just don't need to rush to his defense as much as you do.

  I agree with his points, and think the arguments being made as counters aren't counters to his actual argument.   You are just in another one of your salty moods where you are trying to be combative. First with the comment I edited out to Rob, and then with the subsequent comment that he should admit to being wrong....  again, for an argument he hasn't even made.   Yeah, Rob is plenty capable of speaking for himself...    I'm also capable of having my own opinions. Thanks.

Sometimes he needs to be brought back to earth... You should be okay with that.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Sometimes he needs to be brought back to earth... You should be okay with that.

Zero issue with discussion. Zero issue when people tell me I'm wrong (or someone else is) about something.  That's the whole point of the board. If I agree with him or disagree with him (or anyone else) I'll say so.

Comments calling him a bitch that needs to watch his tone, or that he needs to apologize and say he's wrong about points he isn't even making...  yeah, I might not be cool with that. That's not running to the defense of someone that doesn't need defending.... that's simply me having my opinions.

[SportsGuy]

Maybe... But you're obviously missing their over arching point... That you're clearly wrong. It'd be nice to see you admit it.

What am I wrong about exactly?

I guess I should just be a sheep and have no opinion of my own, like you do?

I guess you feel the minor league system is good and we have the right guys in place. Obviously we will be able to get who we want at the deadline because of all that talent we have!!!

[SportsGuy]

I don't think so.  But I'm comfortable with the points I made.  If you disagree, that's cool.  Lets move on.  Its Saturday after all.

Your points are fine but they have little to do with mine.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'm not cool with that either Rob.   McNulty had it right. Let's move on.

[SportsGuy]

I'm not cool with that either Rob.   McNulty had it right. Let's move on.

I deleted it before you did...I didn't even see what he said. Obviously, he was being a jerk for no reason. Not that I'm surprised. I'm sure he had 3 beers today and got wasted.

Anyway...the next time a point is being argued against me that i am making will be the first time in this thread.

[SportsGuy]

Lets pump the breaks here a second. 
 
I'll reset and restate my point.  This doesn't need to be full of hostility.
 
Rob and Dude were saying that Akin wasn't the top talent available.  Clearly. 
 
I simply disagree that this is clear.  Furthermore, they might be trying to save money on this pick for bonus pool reasons.  To overslot in other rounds.  These are players that no one has heard of, myself included, before the draft started.  You simply cannot judge the quality of this pick based on BA rankings.  That's insane.  Opinions among scouts vary pretty wildly, especially beyond the first 15 or so picks. 
 
To condemn the Orioles immediately is pretty clearly based on animosity and frustration from previous failings.  Its not based on the pick itself, nor the draft philosophy.  They clearly wanted to target college arms, and did so.  Seems like a fair plan. 
 
I know the thread was a joke, but the SG Wet Dream Team thread should be further proof that all the scouting reports in the world are nothing better than an informed guess.  Guys who look like future stars flame out all the time.  Lets take a step back and actually see what the kid can do first before jumping to conclusions.
 
Is this better?  I've been at work all day and severely distracted, so hopefully this clears it up.

When the Orioles say they wanted and targeted college pitchers and that's all they drafted, what exactly does that tell you on how they evaluated that talent compared to other players?

[You Play to Win the Game]

Sometimes he needs to be brought back to earth... You should be okay with that.

Zero issue with discussion. Zero issue when people tell me I'm wrong (or someone else is) about something.  That's the whole point of the board. If I agree with him or disagree with him (or anyone else) I'll say so. Comments calling him a bitch that needs to watch his tone, or that he needs to apologize and say he's wrong about points he isn't even making...  yeah, I might not be cool with that. That's not running to the defense of someone that doesn't need defending.... that's simply me having my opinions.

Some truth here. I'll move on.

[bnickle]

If they had the first 2 pitchers neck and neck with Jones and they went with the pitchers, I am perfectly fine with that.

I tend to doubt that was the case though or if it was the case, it's because they made it that way because they wanted the college arms.

I like the guys we took, at least their profiles. Even if they fail as starters and end up productive relievers, that makes them better than most picks.

But im a BPA guy, especially for a team that is talent starved in the minors.

Im not sure why you assume that is the case. Saw some tweets that Akin might slip into the back of the first round while Jones being a relatively local boy, near Philly, was undoubtedly seen by multiple O's scouts multiple times. If they thought he was the superior prospect, Im sure they would have drafted him.  It's certainly not unreasonable to think they may have had Akin higher. Other than that, McNulty is right that there are multiple variables in play anyway. It's not as easy as just picking a guy. He may want overslot money or the O's may have been trying to save money for later rounds. That's totally understandable.

[bnickle]

BTW dont think there isn't information sharing and pressure to somewhat get in line on the rankings when it comes to these publications. Im sure they all have people who have seen these players but how often each have is debatable. A guy from Baseball Baerica may have seen a particular player 10 times. A guy from MLB Pipeline may have only seen the player once or twice. If they guy from BA really likes Jones but the guy from Pipeline wasn't particularly impressed you think the guy from Pipeline isn't going to defer a bit and rank a player higher than he otherwise might . Or maybe he has seen Jones 6-7 times and still doesn't believe he is a Top 100 player. They still like to fall in line with other services. It's the same thing that happens in these scouting services for football and basketball. You might see a little difference in players rankings but they all like to generally have the same ranking on players. It's not necessarily because thats their true feelings on a player.  It doesn't benefit them to be out on an island  on a player.  

[McNulty]

I deleted it before you did...I didn't even see what he said. Obviously, he was being a jerk for no reason. Not that I'm surprised. I'm sure he had 3 beers today and got wasted.

 

Is this directed at me?

[SportsGuy]

Is this directed at me?

No. Ricker

[SportsGuy]

Im not sure why you assume that is the case. Saw some tweets that Akin might slip into the back of the first round while Jones being a relatively local boy, near Philly, was undoubtedly seen by multiple O's scouts multiple times. If they thought he was the superior prospect, Im sure they would have drafted him.  It's certainly not unreasonable to think they may have had Akin higher. Other than that, McNulty is right that there are multiple variables in play anyway. It's not as easy as just picking a guy. He may want overslot money or the O's may have been trying to save money for later rounds. That's totally understandable.

1). They may have valued Akin higher. I have already acknowledged that.

2). I just personally don't believe they did value him higher. They set out to draft 3 college pitchers early. That is obvious. When you have something in your mind that this is what you are going to do, you tend to ignore other things. Or, instead of ignore, place more value on what you want.

3). And yes, as I have also said,McNulty is right about many things including saving money for later. However, it doesn't seem like they did that in the first 10 rounds and I don't see why you wait for a falling gem later when you can get one sooner. Plus, you don't know for sure that a player is going to fall anyway.

Again, people are making arguments against me...and they aren't arguments I am making nor disagreeing with. I don't know how many times I have to say it.

My issue is simple and it's one thing...if you are going to pigeonhole yourself in saying this is what we sought out and this is what we got, I think that's a flawed strategy and it makes you reach for a player instead of taking the BPA.

The Orioles farm system is devoid of talent. We need the best talent. They already F'ed and lost multiple picks in this draft and because of that, you are putting less talent in the system than you should have. To me, the remedy for all of that is not to take guys that you rank worse than others. Again, if it's close, fine...if you did rank those guys higher, that's fine too.

I just doubt they did because of what they have said and what they did. There is no reason for them to lie to us. They could have taken a number of bats early and they didnt. They took college arms because they wanted college arms.

[bnickle]

I think you're reading too much into the statement and holding it againt them. They drafted 15 pitchers in the first 18 rounds so its clear that yes they were targeting pitching and college pitching at that.  You're assuming, based on the statement and the rankings put out by all these services, that the O's selected an inferior prospect. That's not a fair assumption. Certainly not fair to criticize them for that assumption.

[SportsGuy]

I think you're reading too much into the statement and holding it againt them. They drafted 15 pitchers in the first 18 rounds so its clear that yes they were targeting pitching and college pitching at that.  You're assuming, based on the statement and the rankings put out by all these services, that the O's selected an inferior prospect. That's not a fair assumption. Certainly not fair to criticize them for that assumption.

I'm assuming that because they pigeon holed themselves that they went for guys that fit the profile they wanted...ie college arms. I assume that because they said it and then they did it.

I'm making an assumption based off of factual evidence.

Now, it is possible they had Akin higher than Jones and if so, that's fine. Again, I don't even mind the guys they drafted. I mind that they sought out and wanted and drafted a certain type of player.

It's very fair to assume that they passed on better talents because of what they did and what they stated they wanted to do. I don't see how that's not a fair assumption.

[RichardZ]

Nolan Jones was supposed to go in the mid first round of the draft.   He slipped to 55.    Once he slipped past #20, he was a good value ACCORDING to  MLB (had Jones at #20) and Baseball America (had Jones at #19).    Jones was ultimately taken at #55.   So, anyone claiming the Orioles undervalued Jones or missed out on Jones has to acknowledge that a LOT of teams also did the same thing.   Why did Jones slide?   Price tag?   Overrated by those two publications?    I don't know but it wasn't just the Orioles who passed on Jones.

 

I also have a problem with Dude when he's got things mapped out like we could have taken Jones at #54 and then gotten Akin at #69 as if he knows the draft boards of all the other 29 teams.   The Orioles supposedly over drafted Sisco a few years ago.   Dude just assumes these players are rated the same by all 30 ML teams as they are by BA and MLB.com.    It's obvious that it isn't the case.

 

I do think Gary Rasjich has drafted well with D.J. Stewart looking like one black eye.   His first draft was so so but he did make a good choice with Gausman and Josh Hader as a late round pick.   The rest looks pretty meh with Christian Walker, Branden Kline, and Adrian Marin.   Not so good.

 

However his next draft looks like a healthy Hunter Harvey away from being a big hit.   Harvey was a great choice based on talent.

Sisco, Heim, and Murphy are all good looking catching prospects at this time, especially Sisco and Heim.    Mancini and Yaz look like future ML contributors to differing degrees.   Tarpley and Brault for used to get Travis Snider.   That's not Rajisch's fault.   There are still a number of other players (Donnie Hart, Seabrooke,  Austin Wynns, Josh Hart) who may make a ML contribution.

 

In 2014, Rajisch had two hands tied behind his back with no pick until the 3rd round.   Brian Gonzalez is making that pick look pretty good this year as a 20 year old LHP at Delmarva.   Connaughton will eventually play baseball and we'll see what we got.  David Hess is a legit prospect although he probably winds up in the bullpen.    Tanner Scott is a great arm who has a chance to be a closer or setup LHP.     John Means and Matt Grimes were nice late round pitching picks.    I'm not saying he made the most of a bad situation but he did pretty good with what he had to work with.

 

In 2015, D.J. Stewart is looking like a big miss in the 1st round.   That's on Rajisch as I said.   However, Mountcaste, another OVERDRAFT according to many is looking like a great pick.    With so many HS picks it's way to early to see what else we got here as most of our picks aren't even playing yet this year.

 

Overall, I think Rajisch has done well.   As always, he'll be judged in hindsight, down the road, when we have an even better idea.

 

I do agree with SportsGuys reasoning but I disagree with his conclusion about the Orioles having tunnel vision going for college pitchers.   Yes, it looks like they targeted college pitcher first and foremost at the top of the draft.    No, I don't believe they passed on a hitter who they had much higher on their board to get any of those pitchers.     Did they possibly pass on BPA on their board to go for the pitcher?   Quite possible.    Did they pass on someone who they considered a significantly better talent to do so.   I doubt it.

[SportsGuy]

Btw, based off of things I read before the draft, I was hoping for Jones in R1. However, I'm glad they took Sedlock over him in that spot. I like what I have read about Sedlock and I like that he could move.

A lot of publications have Jones ranked higher, so it's not that I care that BA ranks this guy higher than that guy. But when there is a consensus between many intelligent people who know these guys, I don't think that's something you brush to the side especially when you are talking about an organization that has routinely shown it doesn't have an eye for talent in the draft.

[SportsGuy]

Nolan Jones was supposed to go in the mid first round of the draft. He slipped to 55. Once he slipped past #20, he was a good value ACCORDING to MLB (had Jones at #20) and Baseball America (had Jones at #19). Jones was ultimately taken at #55. So, anyone claiming the Orioles undervalued Jones or missed out on Jones has to acknowledge that a LOT of teams also did the same thing. Why did Jones slide? Price tag? Overrated by those two publications? I don't know but it wasn't just the Orioles who passed on Jones.

I also have a problem with Dude when he's got things mapped out like we could have taken Jones at #54 and then gotten Akin at #69 as if he knows the draft boards of all the other 29 teams. The Orioles supposedly over drafted Sisco a few years ago. Dude just assumes these players are rated the same by all 30 ML teams as they are by BA and MLB.com. It's obvious that it isn't the case.

I do think Gary Rasjich has drafted well with D.J. Stewart looking like one black eye. His first draft was so so but he did make a good choice with Gausman and Josh Hader as a late round pick. The rest looks pretty meh with Christian Walker, Branden Kline, and Adrian Marin. Not so good.

However his next draft looks like a healthy Hunter Harvey away from being a big hit. Harvey was a great choice based on talent.
Sisco, Heim, and Murphy are all good looking catching prospects at this time, especially Sisco and Heim. Mancini and Yaz look like future ML contributors to differing degrees. Tarpley and Brault for used to get Travis Snider. That's not Rajisch's fault. There are still a number of other players (Donnie Hart, Seabrooke, Austin Wynns, Josh Hart) who may make a ML contribution.

In 2014, Rajisch had two hands tied behind his back with no pick until the 3rd round. Brian Gonzalez is making that pick look pretty good this year as a 20 year old LHP at Delmarva. Connaughton will eventually play baseball and we'll see what we got. David Hess is a legit prospect although he probably winds up in the bullpen. Tanner Scott is a great arm who has a chance to be a closer or setup LHP. John Means and Matt Grimes were nice late round pitching picks. I'm not saying he made the most of a bad situation but he did pretty good with what he had to work with.

In 2015, D.J. Stewart is looking like a big miss in the 1st round. That's on Rajisch as I said. However, Mountcaste, another OVERDRAFT according to many is looking like a great pick. With so many HS picks it's way to early to see what else we got here as most of our picks aren't even playing yet this year.

Overall, I think Rajisch has done well. As always, he'll be judged in hindsight, down the road, when we have an even better idea.

I do agree with SportsGuys reasoning but I disagree with his conclusion about the Orioles having tunnel vision going for college pitchers. Yes, it looks like they targeted college pitcher first and foremost at the top of the draft. No, I don't believe they passed on a hitter who they had much higher on their board to get any of those pitchers. Did they possibly pass on BPA on their board to go for the pitcher? Quite possible. Did they pass on someone who they considered a significantly better talent to do so. I doubt it.

Good post RZ. Very well said. We can nitpick on how good some of the guys you mentioned are however, they are making some strides and because of that, they could carry some value on the trade market, so that is good.

In terms of your last statement. As I have said, if it's was close and you valued the pitcher higher, so be it. I have already said I'm totally fine with that. We will never know if that was the case or not.

That being said, I still have an issue with the thought process and subsequent results.

[RichardZ]

Btw, based off of things I read before the draft, I was hoping for Jones in R1. However, I'm glad they took Sedlock over him in that spot. I like what I have read about Sedlock and I like that he could move.

A lot of publications have Jones ranked higher, so it's not that I care that BA ranks this guy higher than that guy. But when there is a consensus between many intelligent people who know these guys, I don't think that's something you brush to the side especially when you are talking about an organization that has routinely shown it doesn't have an eye for talent in the draft.

 

 

As someone else said, let's concentrate on the Rajsich drafts.   Not sure why you say this.   Mountcastle and Sisco were overdrafts according to people like you and they look like excellent picks.     Hunter Harvey was a great late first round pick based on talent.   Josh Hart was a consensus pick (according to people like you) and hasn't done well to this point.   Besides, D.J. Stewart where has Rajisch shown that he doesn't have an eye for talent?    And Stewart was rated just about where we picked him by BA and MLB.   Of course Stotle claims that most teams have him rated much lower but then you'd have to give up the idea that BA and MLB's list are the be all end all.

 

 

The Orioles are in a no win situation with Dude.   When the Orioles don't draft a consensus BA or MLB prospect at a certain spot, he condemns them for missing out on a talent.

 

When the Orioles draft someone way ahead of BA or MLB's list and and the Orioles turn out to look right (Sisco/Mountcastle)  they aren't smarter than BA or MLB.    They simply could have gotten those players a round or two later and gotten the BA and MLB guys in the round they took those guys.