64 replies to this topic

[Oriole85]

I wouldn't say no idea. Just that you can't say for certain what he will become. Obviously you have some idea that he will become a star, otherwise he wouldn't be such a great prospect.

You worded it better than I did. I probably should've said it's not a slam dunk. Poor word choice on my part there.

[Oriole85]

None of the cavalry had Bundy's tools either. Like I mentioned, you can't talk about injury factor they aren't predictable, they are random, and I'm very aware of the rate of failure.

Thanks I had no idea, that none of them didn't have the tools of Bundy. You know what I'm saying. And actually, the injury factor is actually predictable to an extent and not completely random.

[Oriole85]

Well, I wouldn't say it's illogical, but it is a fair point. Strasburg, for instance, came with a certain level of predictability that he would suffer a serious injury due to his "inverted w" delivery. In most cases, it's certainly more random, but there are players who are certainly identifiable as more injury prone early on.

That's actually the example I was thinking of specifically, but there have been others. If the Orioles had picked Lincecum instead of Rowell (and let's say he became Trout) and he had gotten injured, I'm sure we would be hearing how could they have passed up on him (the exact opposite of what we are saying now). One of the reasons, I've actually to some extent defended the Rowell pick. It wasn't such bad logic back then, it just didn't work out.

[mweb08]

I agree with Mackus, Stoner, Rick, etc on this.

It's great to make a prediction on a player, but to act like that prediction is anything close to a certainty is a mistake imo. And that's not being negative at all, nor is it being afraid to make a prediction. People make predictions all the time, but at the same time should realize the chances of that prediction being wrong, what the alternatives are, and then plan accordingly.

[dandrews]

This is tough. I'm leaning no, but it's more of a soft stance.

I don't think I'd have an issue at all trading Machado + more for him though.