Yeah wasn't saying it was at Bundy in particular, it was just about how most people hedge bets and go with the averages and don't consider the player at all. Yes, I went way out on a limb and I could very easily be wrong, but who cares? I just wish more people would come out and say what they really think a guy will or won't do instead of just hiding behind the averages.
It is an interesting way of looking at it. I'll say I prefer the opposite.
When evaluating a player, or projecting a prospect; I like to see/read the comments of as many people who have seen the player as possible. Then I like to evaluate the known numbers. If you have ancillary information such as knowledge about the player's work ethic, determination, etc., I'll consider that as well. Ultimately I take and consider all of that, and balance that out vs. what I see myself.
I've yet to see Bundy pitch (beyond YouTube highlights). Every evaluator everywhere is in love with his stuff, poise, and makeup. It's pretty easy to project him to be in the Majors by late-May / early-June '13. Even easier now that it seems apparent he will end '12 at Bowie.
Knowing what is known about Bundy now, I believe everyone everywhere would expect him to perform at a very high level for a long-time. I believe most would acknowledge that just as he has experienced a learning curve going from the South Atlantic League to the Carolina League; he will go through similar learning curves in the Eastern League, and eventually the Show.
I know that part of the evaluation I will have for him, will not just be how he looks, but a comparison of how he looks (at his age) vs. others.
In my time watching the O's, I think we've seen 3 other prospects (Ben McDonald, Jeffrey Hammonds, and Wieters) with similar pedigree, hype, and expectations. We saw how injuries impacted McDonald, and Hammonds, and I understand that you can not necessarily expect injuries to occur. However, they do happen, and they can derail even the most promising careers. You might look at Dylan, and say you think with his mechanics, and training; that injuries are unlikely. I think it is fair for others to say that based on all-players everywhere, it becomes dangerous to guess where even the most talented players today, will be 5 to 10 years from now.
Speaking for myself, I do think it becomes much easier to make a determination on players after I'm seen them personally. I had not seen Wieters play in the Minors. When he was first promoted, I said pretty much right away that he had holes in his game that I did not anticipate after reading what I had read. Still, while believing what my own eyes were seeing, I also remembered to stay cognizant of the numbers Wieters had produced, and the many glowing comments he had received from evaluators across the game.
After writing the above, I see that Ricker Says and Mackus have done a better job articulating my thoughts than I have.
