64 replies to this topic

[Greg Pappas]

I woke up this Sunday morning with the O's on my mind. I got to thinking about Duquette's comments about being 'in it' and 'doing what we need to do to stay in contention.'

So, an unlikely scenario skittered about my head...

I imagine Duquette looking at his team, who appear outgunned and playing over their heads, and begins to consider what he could do that would really make a difference. He contacts Jack Zduriencik of the Mariners and asks Z right up front if he would trade Felix Hernandez to the O's for a package centered around Dylan Bundy. Z is shocked by this and asks Duquette what the rest of the package would include. Duquette says he'd propose to send him any other two minor leaguers not named Machado or Schoop. Z says he'll get back to him, and after thinking it over and talking with ownership, pulls the trigger... Bundy, Delmonico, and Avery.

Would YOU make this trade if it were available- today?

FWIW, I would not, but it's tempting.

Contract Status from Cots...

Felix Hernandez rhp
5 years/$78M (2010-14)

5 years/$78M (2010-14)
signed extension with Seattle 1/19/10 (avoided arbitration, $11.5M-$7.2M) $3.5M signing bonus

10:$6.5M, 11:$10M, 12:$18.5M, 13:$19.5M, 14:$20M - limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 10 clubs annually) award bonuses: $50,000 each for All-Star, LSC MVP, Gold Glove; $0.1M for WS MVP; $0.2M for Cy Young
2010 Cy Young increases 2011 salary by $1M to $11M, 2012 salary by $0.5M to $19M, 2013 salary by $0.5M to $20M, 2014 salary by $0.5M to $20.5M
1 year/$3.8M (2009) re-signed by Seattle 1/19/09 (avoided arbitration) award bonus: $50,000 for All Star ($25,000 for selection)
1 year/$0.54M (2008)
1 year/$0.42M (2007) renewed by Seattle 3/07
1 year/$0.34M (2006) renewed by Seattle 3/06
1 year (2005) contract purchased by Seattle 8/05
signed 7/02 as an amateur free agent from Venezuela
$0.71M signing bonus
agent: Alan Nero, Wil Polidor
ML service: 6.060

[RichardZ]

Felix makes 18.5M this year, 19.5M next year and 20M in the last year of his contract in 2014. A lot depends on the Orioles overall payroll. I think an argument can definitely be made for making that trade. Depends on how certain you feel that Bundy becomes an allstar caliber pitcher. Being an Orioles fan has led me to being skeptical about even the best prospects. This morning, I make that deal.


Keep in mind that you can keep Hernandez for this year and next and still deal him before or during his last year for a top pitching prospect.

[JeremyStrain]

No. Figuring in age and money, I take my chances that Dylan is better than him and under team control longer. Epitome of trading the future for a shot now.

[Greg Pappas]

No. Figuring in age and money, I take my chances that Dylan is better than him and under team control longer. Epitome of trading the future for a shot now.

While I'd say no as well, it's close... but getting Felix isn't like getting Greinke or Hamels, as we'd have him for two more years after this season... his prime years.

[JeremyStrain]

While I'd say no as well, it's close... but getting Felix isn't like getting Greinke or Hamels, as we'd have him for two more years after this season... his prime years.

2 years versus 6 years still isn't CLOSE to worth the risk for me.

[Greg Pappas]

2 years versus 6 years still isn't CLOSE to worth the risk for me.

I agree. Made this thread a poll BTW.

[BSLChrisStoner]

No. Figuring in age and money, I take my chances that Dylan is better than him and under team control longer. Epitome of trading the future for a shot now.

I don't think Bundy will be better than Hernandez over the next 3 years, but I agree I don't make the trade. I expect Bundy will be up by June of next year. I do expect him to be increasingly productive over '13-'15 (perhaps nearly matching Hernandez in '14 and '15).

Even if he is only 3/4's the pitcher of Hernandez in that time-frame, the salary differential can be used elsewhere, plus as you mentioned, he would be under team-control longer.

No worry of this happening though, as there is no chance of Bundy or Machado being moved.

[SportsGuy]

If we had Felix for 3 years instead of 2, I make the deal.

But we don't, so no.

[You Play to Win the Game]

It's tempting, but I agree with what others have said RE: Salary. Not only should Bundy be very good, he's one of the few who have a real opportunity to provide incredible surplus value for us over the next several years.

[RichardZ]

2 years versus 6 years still isn't CLOSE to worth the risk for me.

Where is there more risk? You could argue there is more risk in Bundy remaining healthy and becoming close to the pitcher Hernandez is. Obviously, a best scenario of Bundy is too valuable to give up for 2 years of King Felix.

[SportsGuy]

Btw, I think if you put Bundy on the table, a lot of players around the league come into play, players with more service time and less money owed than FHer.

[JeffLong]

The idea that the next 2 years are prime years for Felix is a bit misleading IMO. The guy has thrown over 1500 MLB innings, explaining the velo drop we saw this year.

Bundy to me is like Verlander-lite, and I'd rather take a gamble that he becomes that than trade him for 2 seasons of King Felix.

[mweb08]

Absolutely not.

Felix would likely provide 10-15M of surplus value to the O's over the rest of his contract if using fWAR and their measure of monetary value per WAR.

Bundy can provide a surplus value of over 50M without even coming close to reaching his potential.

Then there's the potential surplus value of Delmonico and Avery.

[Greg Pappas]

This post is from "clarknova" of MarinersForum.com, in reply to my question:

First of all, welcome Greg.

Secondly, you're welcome for Adam Jones.

Thirdly, that trade = probably not. But, let me clarify. I don't think either team would be willing to make that deal and that's why even though our offense has been so poor over the last few years, Felix is not really tradable- because what we would need in return, Dylan Bundy for instance, would not be available. Not only that, but we would need proven big league talent for him, I don't think he'll be dealt for a prospect package unless he's at the end of his deal and is not coming back. I don't think it would be a good move for the O's either, and I think they'd be better off aiming slightly lower and retaining that young talent.

If it were up to me, I'd want Bundy AND Machado (I'm a huge Machado fan, he's going to be a stud), which would be ridiculous for the O's to do, but besides that, for Bundy + prospects? He's one of the few aces in the game. Bundy sure looks like he will join him some day, but we can't afford to bank on "probably" when trading one of the best players we've ever had.

[mweb08]

For the next two seasons, the O's could potentially have Grienke and Bundy for about the same cost as Hernandez. Then there's 5 more years of club control for Bundy.

[PD24]

For the next two seasons, the O's could potentially have Grienke and Bundy for about the same cost as Hernandez. Then there's 5 more years of club control for Bundy.

This is the best point made in this thread by far.

[RichardZ]

For the next two seasons, the O's could potentially have Grienke and Bundy for about the same cost as Hernandez. Then there's 5 more years of club control for Bundy.

That's if you get Greinke to sign here and, if you do, you get him for another 7 or 8 years at 20+ M for those years. That could be good or bad.

[PD24]

That's if you get Greinke to sign here and, if you do, you get him for another 7 or 8 years at 20+ M for those years. That could be good or bad.

Well, offer the money to get Greinke to sign here. There's a price for anything.

I'd rather overpay and put out the biggest over by $15-$20 mil than give up Bundy.

[mweb08]

That's if you get Greinke to sign here and, if you do, you get him for another 7 or 8 years at 20+ M for those years. That could be good or bad.

Yes, it is a maybe. I do think you're vastly overrating what it will take to sign him if you think it will take 9-10 years at 20+ M a year. Considering that some teams will potentially rule him out or vice versa due to his mentality and his past, I would be surprised if he can't be had for around 6/120.

Regardless, I'll take Bundy, the extra money, and the other two players over Hernandez.

[RichardZ]

Yes, it is a maybe. I do think you're vastly overrating what it will take to sign him if you think it will take 9-10 years at 20+ M a year. Considering that some teams will potentially rule him out or vice versa due to his mentality and his past, I would be surprised if he can't be had for around 6/120.

Regardless, I'll take Bundy, the extra money, and the other two players over Hernandez.

I didn't mean that Greinke will get a 9 year contract. But the past has shown us that he'll likely get a 6-7 contract for 20+ and a team like the O's will have to pay on the high end in term of years and money.