28 replies to this topic

[DJ MC]

The struggles the Orioles are going through are well-documented. Very few players on the team are hitting, and even if there is some eventual good in sending down three starting pitchers within a week there is no way in the present that it can be viewed as a good thing.

The bullpen became the strength of the club through the first half. Even if the starter struggled the relievers could be counted on to keep the score manageable, and if the Orioles led late it could be assumed that the team would win. Best of all, unlike past seasons where the front office attempted to throw many at the bullpen to solve problems, it appeared that they took a look at the volatility of relief pitchers and decided to build a 'pen from essentially no-name players: Luis Ayala, Darren O'Day, Pedro Strop.

For the most part, this succeeded. The Orioles won a lot of games; more than usual even for a franchise that tended to do well early before late-season collapses. Over 278 1/3 innings, among the highest workloads in the majors, the group put up a 2.75 ERA, allowing 1.175 baserunners an inning.

There were warning signs, though. The bullpen ERA--while great on average--grew each month, from 1.83 in April to 2.64 in May to 3.24 in June. The WHIP and strikeouts--both per nine and compared to walks--peaked in May but fell in June.

So far in July (all upcoming numbers not including the disaster of tonight's game), the bullpen is pitching to a 4.66 ERA over 36 2/3 innings. The strikeout rate has dropped by almost two full Ks per nine from May, to 5.4. The baserunner numbers are up by four-tenths per inning, to 1.5.

Individually, there isn't much to tell. No reliever has pitched more than six innings in July (Ayala), so even if Ayala and Patton have 7.5 and 6 ERAs respectively, it may not mean anything.

So it appears that the bullpen is starting to fall apart, or at best come back to earth from an unsustainable high. I'm more worried about this than I am about the starting pitching and offense, to be frank. While both groups are struggling with poor play and injuries, they have the talent to rebound. The bullpen has been healthy, without much turnover all season. The only real issue is the overwork.

Is that all this is? An overworked and overachieving group of pitchers evening out a bit from a great early performance? Or is it the final nail in the coffin for a team already teetering on the brink of collapse?

[SportsGuy]

Of course it's evening out.

The pen was never as good as it was showing.

We have too many guys that are up and down, have command issues or just aren't very good.

[BobPhelan]

Not mention over use lately. It doesnt help that they're all basically one inning guys.

[mweb08]

The BP was what was making the O's so good record wise because both their offense and starting pitching has been poor. The defense isn't good either. The BP was exceptional and was helping the team win a lot of close games.

This supports my opinion that a great BP is underrated by most, but it also supports the general opinion that BP performance is hard to predict.

[Mackus]

This supports my opinion that a great BP is underrated by most, but it also supports the general opinion that BP performance is hard to predict.

Yep, both are true.

Having a great bullpen really is an asset to a team. However, there is very little way to tell if a collection of relief pitchers are going to form a great bullpen. Past performance is much less of an indicator of future success for middle relief guys than it is for every other position.

That's why you only give big money to the truly elite relievers. Don't give $3-4M to middle relief guys because they aren't predictable.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Currently the pen looks like:

Johnson, Strop, Lindstrom, O'Day, Ayala, Gregg, Patton, Socolovich

I'd be thinking about using Hunter, S. Johnson, Romero, Bergesen, Berken, Belfiore, Wright, and Schrader as potential replacements for Ayala, Gregg, Patton, and Socolovich.

Certainly a shame that Pomeranz got hurt, I think he would have helped.

[Mackus]

I think you fix the bullpen by fixing the rotation. Aside from replacing Gregg, I don't really think anyone else needs to go. I'm very comfortable with Johnson, Strop, Lindstrom, O'Day, Ayala, and Patton.

If we only need to go 2-3 innings a game the pen will perform a lot better than if they have to go 4-5 innings a game.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think you fix the bullpen by fixing the rotation. Aside from replacing Gregg, I don't really think anyone else needs to go. I'm very comfortable with Johnson, Strop, Lindstrom, O'Day, Ayala, and Patton.

If we only need to go 2-3 innings a game the pen will perform a lot better than if they have to go 4-5 innings a game.

Yep, this is the bottom-line. There is no bullpen anywhere that can excel, with major problems in the rotation in-front of them. The rotation does not have to be great, but they do have to consistently provide innings and give the team a chance. If they rotation does that, the bullpen can slot in behind them.

Still, I think it would help the pen to have a couple more guys, capable of going multiple innings. Gregg has not been overly horrible, but there is still a reluctance from Showalter to use him. Replacing Gregg with someone who could provide multiple innings, multiple times per week would be an upgrade.

Ayala was very strong earlier in the year, but has struggled recently. I would not be opposed to seeing him replaced with one of the other options mentioned above.

[Mackus]

Ayala was very strong earlier in the year, but has struggled recently. I would not be opposed to seeing him replaced with one of the other options mentioned above.

He's had a couple rough outings lately, but nothing that merits him being replaced, IMO.