129 replies to this topic

[Pedro Cerrano]

If they have that money available, they should put it to...other uses

Like stopping Timothy Olyphant in Die Hard 4 from stealing my SSN?

[Oriole85]

Testudo Times: Expectations and excuses: Looking towards a pivotal year for Maryland basketball

 

The 2013-2014 Maryland Terrapins men's basketball team finished the season ranked 43rd in KenPom, ahead of 31 NCAA tournament teams, including 10 with at-large bids. They were 328th (out of 351) in "Luck"

...

There's no doubt in my mind, that Maryland got a bit unlucky this year. And if the ball bounces different in a few games this season, especially against Duke and Syracuse, the season looks a lot different. However, there's no reason they should be losing to both Boston U/Oregon State at home in a single season. If a team can unfairly benefit from being on the right side of the luck factor, the opposite is true as well.

 

Their Pythagorean Winning Percentage, or expected winning percentage against an average NCAA D-1 team, was .8044 (43rd in the country). Over a 32 game season they would have been expected to win ~27 games versus an average D-1 schedule. In actuality, they played the 14th hardest schedule. Had Maryland scored just one more basket and prevented their opponent from scoring just one more basket each game this season, they would have won six more games (and gone to overtime versus Pittsburgh), including wins over five teams that made the NCAA tournament. All of these numbers are meant to say that Maryland was a decent team that got about as unlucky as a team can get, especially in close games, and against a very difficult schedule.

 

Now, after all the equivocating, we arrive at the point: If Maryland does not show marked improvement, including but not limited to, a spot in the NCAA tournament next season, something has to change.

Turgeon isn't getting fired next year barring something really drastic or a substantial donation to the AD. I know only Peter has suggested here to fire him, but whenever I see that suggestion in other places on social media, I try to remind people firing him costs money and Maryland doesn't exactly have much of that right now.

 

It can be flawed thinking to set the fluctuating bar of the NCAA tournament as the arbiter of success or failure (Did Iowa really have a much more successful of a season than SMU just because the former got in and the latter didn't?), but for Maryland and Turgeon it might be that simple.

It might be flawed but that's the general barometer for major, established basketball programs and how far you get in it. Mark Turgeon knows that, Kevin Anderson knows that, Maryland fans know that.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Testudo Times: Expectations and excuses: Looking towards a pivotal year for Maryland basketball

 

 

Their Pythagorean Winning Percentage, or expected winning percentage against an average NCAA D-1 team, was .8044 (43rd in the country). Over a 32 game season they would have been expected to win ~27 games versus an average D-1 schedule. In actuality, they played the 14th hardest schedule. Had Maryland scored just one more basket and prevented their opponent from scoring just one more basket each game this season, they would have won six more games (and gone to overtime versus Pittsburgh), including wins over five teams that made the NCAA tournament. All of these numbers are meant to say that Maryland was a decent team that got about as unlucky as a team can get, especially in close games, and against a very difficult schedule.

 

Turgeon isn't getting fired next year barring something really drastic or a substantial donation to the AD. I know only Peter has suggested here to fire him, but whenever I see that suggestion in other places on social media, I try to remind people firing him costs money and Maryland doesn't exactly have much of that right now.

 

It might be flawed but that's the general barometer for major, established basketball programs and how far you get in it. Mark Turgeon knows that, Kevin Anderson knows that, Maryland fans know that.

 

What year are you talking about? Now (going into 2014-15), or after next (before '15-'16)? If after next, I fully agree (I said so in the article starting this thread) with Testudo Times here. Turgeon can't be back for '15-16, if MD hasn't at-least made the Tournament for '14-'15. I expect that he will.

Interesting article in-general here from TT.

I have to say that I don't feel MD was particularly unlucky this year. I think they were good enough to be in a lot of games, and lacking enough of x,y, & z to close enough of those close games out. They didn't know how to finish, and were particularly lacking in execution or the ability to get needed stops.

[DJ MC]

Turgeon isn't getting fired next year barring something really drastic or a substantial donation to the AD. I know only Peter has suggested here to fire him, but whenever I see that suggestion in other places on social media, I try to remind people firing him costs money and Maryland doesn't exactly have much of that right now.

 

There's a big difference between this offseason and next offseason. If Maryland misses the tournament for a fifth straight year, it will be the first time since the probation. More importantly, the last time before that was 1972, which was Lefty's third year and back when there were no at-large bids (and they finished with 27 wins, lost the ACC final to a Final Four-bound UNC, and won the NIT).

[Oriole85]

What year are you talking about? Now (going into 2014-15), or after next (before '15-'16)? If after next, I fully agree (I said so in the article starting this thread) with Testudo Times here. Turgeon can't be back for '15-16, if MD hasn't at-least made the Tournament for '14-'15. I expect that he will.

Interesting article in-general here from TT.

I have to say that I don't feel MD was particularly unlucky this year. I think they were good enough to be in a lot of games, and lacking enough of x,y, & z to close enough of those close games out. They didn't know how to finish, and were particularly lacking in execution or the ability to get needed stops.

I think he'll be back for 2015-16 regardless. He's making a guaranteed $1.9 million for the next 5 years (http://articles.balt...son-wallace-loh) and they'll possibly have to pay for a new football coach after next season. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think he'll be back for 2015-16 regardless. He's making a guaranteed $1.9 million for the next 5 years (http://articles.balt...son-wallace-loh) and they'll possibly have to pay for a new football coach after next season. 

 

IMO, almost zero% chance he's back for '15-'16 without MD getting to the Tournament next year.

[Oriole85]

IMO, almost zero% chance he's back for '15-'16 without MD getting to the Tournament next year.

I think Turgeon's contract was designed to make it pretty tough to be fired by making it all guaranteed (as was Edsall's). And if they have to buyout Edsall's contract (didn't you say he needed 8 wins?), I think it will be even less likely.  After next year, they'd have to pay Turgeon $8 million NOT to coach and then another coach a similar salary in addition to potentially buying out assistants and paying new ones.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I think he'll be back for 2015-16 regardless. He's making a guaranteed $1.9 million for the next 5 years (http://articles.balt...son-wallace-loh) and they'll possibly have to pay for a new football coach after next season. 

 
IMO, almost zero% chance he's back for '15-'16 without MD getting to the Tournament next year.

Interesting. I'd give them a 50/50 at best right now given the freshman they will be depending on. Of course with departures and transfers, that could get better.

I'd be surprised if he's canned next year in any event. We'll see. He should be if they miss the tournament though.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think Turgeon's contract was designed to make it pretty tough to be fired by making it all guaranteed (as was Edsall's). And if they have to buyout Edsall's contract (didn't you say he needed 8 wins?), I think it will be even less likely.  After next year, they'd have to pay Turgeon $8 million NOT to coach and then another coach a similar salary in addition to potentially buying out assistants and paying new ones.

 

I mentioned the contract Turgeon signed in the article which started this thread. I'm aware.

MD's financial difficulties are well known. Those difficulties have forced the move to the Big Ten. That move won't result in an immediate financial windfall... but I do think it will allow the University to be in position to let the results dictate decisions vs. results and financials dictating decisions.

 

Having to fire either coach... their assistants... bring in a new coach... and their assistants... would be a tremendous (and difficult) expense for MD. We agree on that. That investment will have to happen imo if there is not progress with both sports next year. Both teams are set-up pretty well to improve... if it doesn't happen, I think they will find a way to part ways.

OTOH, if MD Football is closer to 6-7 wins (even after the bowl) vs. the 8 wins (including the bowl) I think they can get to... maybe Edsall does keep his job if there is only an ability to replace one coach (and the need to evaluate MD Basketball after the Football season has ended).

It would be easier to replace Edsall (less years), but MD's flagship athletic program can't stand another year not making the NCAAT.

 

Going into 2014-15, MD will be able to say this is Turgeon's 4th year... all his guys... experience + Top 10 recruiting class + excitement of playing in the Big Ten for the first time... you can sell that.

If that team doesn't get to the NCAAT... it would become nearly impossible to sell 2015-16 to people.

[Oriole85]

Interesting. I'd give them a 50/50 at best right now given the freshman they will be depending on. Of course with departures and transfers, that could get better.

I'd be surprised if he's canned next year in any event. We'll see. He should be if they miss the tournament though.

In normal circumstances, I would agree with those who said he'd be fired with missing the tourney next year.

[bnickle]

IMO, almost zero% chance he's back for '15-'16 without MD getting to the Tournament next year.

Wrong. They would have to be pretty bad next year for him to be fired. Not 500ish missing tourney bad.

 

 

 

Besides, you can't put something like the NCAA tourney as the standard at this point anyway. What happens if they suffer a couple of big injuries. What happens if Wells does something stupid and decides to go play pro.

 

 

I've said before, assuming the key players all return and we're relatively healthy, the bar gets raised next year. What you guys call excuses stop from me. That said, you can't definitively put something like NCAA or bust on the table and make that the fire or not fire line.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Wrong. They would have to be pretty bad next year for him to be fired. Not 500ish missing tourney bad.

 

Hopefully the results improve as they should, and the discussion becomes null and void. However, if MD does not get back to the NCAAT... I don't think I'll be wrong.

[Oriole85]

I mentioned the contract Turgeon signed in the article which started this thread. I'm aware.

MD's financial difficulties are well known. Those difficulties have forced the move to the Big Ten. That move won't result in an immediate financial windfall... but I do think it will allow the University to be in position to let the results dictate decisions vs. results and financials dictating decisions.

 

Having to fire either coach... their assistants... bring in a new coach... and their assistants... would be a tremendous (and difficult) expense for MD. We agree on that. That investment will have to happen imo if there is not progress with both sports next year. Both teams are set-up pretty well to improve... if it doesn't happen, I think they will find a way to part ways.

If MD Football is closer to 6-7 wins (even after the bowl) vs. the 8 wins (including the bowl) I think they can get to... maybe Edsall does keep his job if there is only an ability to replace one coach (and the need to evaluate MD Basketball after the Football season has ended).

It would be easier to replace Edsall (less years), but MD's flagship athletic program can't stand another year not making the NCAAT.

 

Going into 2014-15, MD will be able to say this is Turgeon's 4th year... all his guys... experience + Top 10 recruiting class + excitement of playing in the Big Ten for the first time... you can sell that.

If that team doesn't get to the NCAAT... it would become nearly impossible to sell 2015-16 to people.

Best of luck to them trying to figure out away to make all these financial moves. I don't see it though without getting donors to pony up. Kevin Plank and Barry Gossett can rescue Maryland's major sports if they want to.

 

I think they'll have to give Edsall a short-term extension after next season for recruiting purposes and retaining/attaining quality assistants. The bowl game is largely irrelevant.Coaches get extended or fired based on how they finish the regular season. Sure, there's exceptions like Rich Rodriguez and John Cooper, but by-and-large this stuff gets decided after the final regular season game if not sooner.

 

The problem with deciding between one or the other is Edsall's is going to come up first. They aren't going to wait until April and fire him.

 

And even though basketball might be the premier program, football is still the bigger moneymaker I believe.

[Oriole85]

Hopefully the results improve as they should, and the discussion becomes null and void. However, if MD does not get back to the NCAAT... I don't think I'll be wrong.

You'll be right, if the AD gets a lot more $$$ and makes these moves feasible.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Best of luck to them trying to figure out away to make all these financial moves. I don't see it though without getting donors to pony up. Kevin Plank and Barry Gossett can rescue Maryland's major sports if they want to.

 

I think they'll have to give Edsall a short-term extension after next season for recruiting purposes and retaining/attaining quality assistants. The bowl game is largely irrelevant.Coaches get extended or fired based on how they finish the regular season. Sure, there's exceptions like Rich Rodriguez and John Cooper, but by-and-large this stuff gets decided after the final regular season game if not sooner.

 

The problem with deciding between one or the other is Edsall's is going to come up first. They aren't going to wait until April and fire him.

 

And even though basketball might be the premier program, football is still the bigger moneymaker I believe.

 

Good luck trying to get anyone to donate to the programs, if MD doesn't improve, and you stay status quo.

 

There are limits to how much Plank and Gossett will donate... but when Plank is effectively building their indoor facility, you can bet he will be listened to.

You are 100% right that they won't wait until April to fire Edsall. I didn't say decide between one and the other though... I said if they could only keep one or the other, I think they would keep Edsall so they could evaluate Turgeon's next season.

[Oriole85]

Wrong. They would have to be pretty bad next year for him to be fired. Not 500ish missing tourney bad.

 

 

 

Besides, you can't put something like the NCAA tourney as the standard at this point anyway. What happens if they suffer a couple of big injuries. What happens if Wells does something stupid and decides to go play pro.

 

 

I've said before, assuming the key players all return and we're relatively healthy, the bar gets raised next year. What you guys call excuses stop from me. That said, you can't definitively put something like NCAA or bust on the table for Turgeon  and make that the fire or not fire line.

Agree with the first part of what you're saying about them having to be pretty bad for Turgeon to get fired.

 

Disagree on the Tourney not being the standard in general. Injuries happen, every team is effected here, some more than others. While I don't think he'll be fired because of a tourney miss, that has more to do with finances.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Other than the possession-arrow fiasco and narrow miss at the buzzer at Duke, MD was responsible for their own "bad luck" with a lot of boneheaded play.

[Oriole85]

Good luck trying to get anyone to donate to the programs, if MD doesn't improve, and you stay status quo.

 

There are limits to how much Plank and Gossett will donate... but when Plank is effectively building their indoor facility, you can bet he will be listened to.

That will be tough to get the donations, but the money has to come from somewhere and every time the coach doesn't work out, you can't just be taking out loans.

 

Plank is a billionaire, not sure how much Gossett is worth. If Plank wanted to, he could likely give more $$$. I'm not saying he should, it's his money after all, he can spend it how he wants.

[You Play to Win the Game]

IMO, almost zero% chance he's back for '15-'16 without MD getting to the Tournament next year.

Wrong. They would have to be pretty bad next year for him to be fired. Not 500ish missing tourney bad.
 
 
 
Besides, you can't put something like the NCAA tourney as the standard at this point anyway. What happens if they suffer a couple of big injuries. What happens if Wells does something stupid and decides to go play pro.
 
 
I've said before, assuming the key players all return and we're relatively healthy, the bar gets raised next year. What you guys call excuses stop from me. That said, you can't definitively put something like NCAA or bust on the table and make that the fire or not fire line.

That's why you don't miss the tourney 3 straight years... so if things go wrong injury wise, you've built up some good will and a little leash. Whether you like it or not, Turgeon IS responsible for his tenure here. Not Gary, not low IQ. Turgeon. Buck stops with him. That's how it works.

[Oriole85]

I agree with those who say MD "earned" the losses besides Duke, even that one despite the officials incompetence they did have a decent shot there at the end. I still however, think they did get unlucky and should've had a few more wins. They didn't however and it's ultimately a reflection on this team as the W's/L's matter the most when evaluating teams.