513 replies to this topic

[RShack]

And his largest sample shows him to be a .740 OPS player.

It's a perfect example of the non-existent normative person... which is a consistent issue throughout stats, not just baseball stats. Just because the average male is 5'10.5" (or whatever it is), that is not a good reason to expect a random guy to be 5'10.5". Same basic idea...

Not saying that looking at that is irrational... just saying you gotta realize he's never been very close to hitting .740, not even once....

[mweb08]

It's a perfect example of the non-existent normative person... which is a consistent issue throughout stats, not just baseball stats.

Not saying that looking at that is irrational... just saying you gotta realize he's never been very close to hitting .740, not even once....

He's been within 26 points. That's pretty close. And get this, that year was a 96 OPS+, which is his career OPS+. So in the average hitting environment for his career, it would have been exactly .740.

Regardless, I estimated a .725 OPS for him.

[RShack]

He's been within 26 points. That's pretty close. Regardless, I estimated a .725 OPS for him.

And you could be exactly right. Even if you're not exactly right, you could be closer than me. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying I made what I think is a better bet, that's all.

Regardless, it hasn't happened yet, and there's only one way to find out...

[mweb08]

And you could be exactly right. Even if you're not exactly right, you could be closer than me. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying I made what I think is a better bet, that's all.

Regardless, it hasn't happened yet, and there's only one way to find out...

Take a look at my addition to my last post.

[mweb08]

And to add to his previous 96 OPS+ season, his 2007 season roughly translates to a .744 OPS in last year's run environent for a Baltimore Oriole (Betemit's OPS was the same OPS+ as was Hardy's in 2007).

So yeah, he's had two years that are pretty close to his career average (one exact), it's just that the run environment was higher or lower than the norm for his career.

[RShack]

Take a look at my addition to my last post.

OK... I just did...

Like I said, only one way to find out who's bet is closest to what actually happens. And, since these things are often not resolvable, watch him get a number that is exactly halfway between your bet and mine

[mweb08]

OK... I just did...

Like I said, only one way to find out who's bet is closest to what actually happens. And, since these things are often not resolvable, watch him get a number that is exactly halfway between your bet and mine

I'd be very glad to get that production out of him.

[RShack]

I'd be very glad to get that production out of him.

Maybe, maybe not... my 1st bet was ~.800 OPS but my 2nd bet was ~.700...

[JeffLong]

http://www.fangraphs...y-hardy-hardly/

[BSLChrisStoner]

Hardy 2012: 663 ab's, .238 baa, 22 hr's, 68 rbi, 38 bb's, 106 k's, 30 doubles, 2 triples, .671 OPS, .282 OBP, .389 SLG, .290 wOBA, .151 ISO, 10.1 UZR/150

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Hardy: "Offensively I thought it was a terrible year for me."
http://www.masnsport...ear-for-me.html

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Depot: Will Hardy's bat bounce back?
http://camdendepot.b...ounce-back.html

[Tucker Blair]

BSL: Push vs Pull: JJ Hardy's Spray Tendencies
http://baltimorespor... ... endencies/

[BSLChrisStoner]

Another good read from Tucker here. Be sure to give him your thoughts.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I've said this before, but coming into 2012, Hardy had 3 previous years with at-least 527 ab’s. In each of those seasons, he had an OPS of at-least .786. In ’12, his OPS was .671. For his career (3,605 ab’s), his OPS .740. Should he stay healthy enough to again get 500+ ab’s, I would expect an OPS closer to his career average at the minimum.

If the past two years represent extremes, take them both and split the difference.
His OPS in ’11 was .801. His OPS in ’12 was .671. .801 + .671 = 1,472 / 2 = .736
.736 pretty much matches his career numbers, and should probably be the expectation to me.

Agree? Disagree?

[Tucker Blair]

I think that sounds about right Chris.

I don't think we will ever see a 2011 season again from Hardy (hopefully I am very wrong), but he has enough bat to still be valuable. I found it interesting how he was pitched essentially the same in 2011 and 2012, yet the numbers are certainly different.


I am just glad that there hasn't been any regression on the defensive side.

[SportsGuy]

Why anyone would ever throw Hardy, Davis or Jones a strike is beyond me.

I would expect Hardys OPS to be in the 710-750 range. It can be worse and it can be better.

Problem is, it is driven by his slugging...the lack of walks, the poor BB rate and poor BA make him a #7 hitter.

Now, his power and his defense make him valuable and well worth his contract but he isn't the irreplaceable piece so many Orioles fans make him out to be.

Still, even though I would like to see him dealt, you can't be upset that we have him...he is one of the better SS in the game.

[SportsGuy]

I think that sounds about right Chris.

I don't think we will ever see a 2011 season again from Hardy (hopefully I am very wrong), but he has enough bat to still be valuable. I found it interesting how he was pitched essentially the same in 2011 and 2012, yet the numbers are certainly different.


I am just glad that there hasn't been any regression on the defensive side.

Of course, that could happen at anytime.

[mweb08]

It's nice to see that he tried to stay back more late last year and as a result went to RF more often. I really wish he would do that more consistently and do a better job of laying off the low and away slider, but at this point it's likely unrealistic to think he'll change much for the better.

[RichardZ]

Interesting stuff. I think Hardy is a pretty easy guy to figure out. He looks middle in until he gets two strikes. Early last season, pitchers would throw fastballs to the outside half and get ahead of Hardy, thus making him succeptible to the breaking pitching down and away or even another well placed fastball. He did a better job of flicking the outside pitch into RF but he rarely did so with any authority. In 2011, he basically had the same approach without the defensive RF swings. The big difference is that he didn't miss HIS pitch when he got it in 2011. There were quite a few times in 2012 when he just didn't have his stroke working properly and missed those middle to middle in pitches that in 2011 he was yanking into the LF seats.