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Keeper league suggestions / discussion


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#1 Mackus

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 08:54 AM

About that time of year...

 

I play in a keeper league with a group of friends.  12 team league, standard scoring.  We can keep four players.  Your first two picks must be keepers, then you can keep any two other draft picks from last year.  If a guy was kept the previous season, you can still keep them, they just get kept as a 3rd or 4th (4th if you've used the 3rd on another keeper) pick instead of the round they were drafted in if you're keeping them for the first time.  You are allowed to keep a player at a higher round if you want (so a guy drafted in the 3rd round could be my 2nd round keeper and I would then have a 3rd round pick, which is the first round we actually choose new players in our draft).

 

Here's my potential keepers and the round value they'd have to be kept at:

 

LeSean McCoy - 1st

Matt Stafford - 3rd/4th

Julio Jones - 3rd/4th

Doug Martin - 3rd

Dez Bryant - 4th

Pierre Garcon - 6th

Rashard Mendenhall - 10th

Lance Moore - 11th

Michael Vick - 12th

 

I'm strongly leaning towards not getting cute and just keeping McCoy, Jones, Martin, and Bryant and not having a draft pick until our 3rd actual round of drafting after keepers.  I worry about not keeping Stafford, though, as QBs go fairly quickly.  I expect that Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees, Ryan, RG3, Luck, and Kaepernick will all get kept.  Without a 3rd or 4th round pick, I might not be able to get one of the better unkept QBs and could end up with a struggle there.



#2 JeremyStrain

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 08:58 AM

About that time of year...

 

I play in a keeper league with a group of friends.  12 team league, standard scoring.  We can keep four players.  Your first two picks must be keepers, then you can keep any two other draft picks from last year.  If a guy was kept the previous season, you can still keep them, they just get kept as a 3rd or 4th (4th if you've used the 3rd on another keeper) pick instead of the round they were drafted in if you're keeping them for the first time.  You are allowed to keep a player at a higher round if you want (so a guy drafted in the 3rd round could be my 2nd round keeper and I would then have a 3rd round pick, which is the first round we actually choose new players in our draft).

 

Here's my potential keepers and the round value they'd have to be kept at:

 

LeSean McCoy - 1st

Matt Stafford - 3rd/4th

Julio Jones - 3rd/4th

Doug Martin - 3rd

Dez Bryant - 4th

Pierre Garcon - 6th

Rashard Mendenhall - 10th

Lance Moore - 11th

Michael Vick - 12th

 

I'm strongly leaning towards not getting cute and just keeping McCoy, Jones, Martin, and Bryant and not having a draft pick until our 3rd actual round of drafting after keepers.  I worry about not keeping Stafford, though, as QBs go fairly quickly.  I expect that Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees, Ryan, RG3, Luck, and Kaepernick will all get kept.  Without a 3rd or 4th round pick, I might not be able to get one of the better unkept QBs and could end up with a struggle there.

 

Yeah I'd keep all 4, especially because Martin and McCoy will be no-doubt 1st rounders this year, and Jones and Stafford are probably 2-3rd rounders, depending on the run on QBs. With the OL improvements in DET, and having Bush back there as a release valve, I expect Stafford to have a good year.


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#3 Mackus

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 10:37 AM

So you'd keep Stafford and Jones and let Dez go back into the draft pool?

 

I really like Dez.  His injury problems are my main concern, but I think he's got a better chance than Jones of being one of the top couple WR this year.  I really like both, but I also really like Stafford.

 

I may be able to trade one of the five for an extra pick or something to salvage some value.  I hate having to kick back any of these 5 guys.



#4 JeremyStrain

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 10:45 AM

So you'd keep Stafford and Jones and let Dez go back into the draft pool?

 

I really like Dez.  His injury problems are my main concern, but I think he's got a better chance than Jones of being one of the top couple WR this year.  I really like both, but I also really like Stafford.

 

I may be able to trade one of the five for an extra pick or something to salvage some value.  I hate having to kick back any of these 5 guys.

 

Yeah I'd say Jones over Dez looking at the divisions, defenses against, and QB throwing to. ATL should be more of a pass heavy offense. Much better off keeping Stafford and finding a WR than the other way around. 12 team keeper leagues means the top 6-8 will get kept at least, and with 4 keepers per team I could see all 12 starting QB being kept.

 

Try to trade one of the WR, I may even try to package one with Stafford to get one of the more clear elite QB if you think it's worth it, but like I said, I think Stafford will have a good year this year, good sleeper pick.


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#5 bnickle

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 02:48 PM

 I like Bryant.  I dont know what Qbs will be there but keeping Stafford shouldnt be a priority. Dont think you need to keep him.



#6 Mackus

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 02:14 PM

Not including Stafford, here's a rundown of the QBs being kept and thrown back

 

Kept:

Rodgers

Brees

Brady

P. Manning

Ryan

Kaepernick

Griffin

Luck

 

 

Available:

Newton (likely will be traded and kept, owner keeping Luck as 9th rounder instead of Cam as 3rd)

Rivers

Cutler

Romo (owner may keep)

Schaub

Wilson (unless he's traded and kept as 12th rounder, I may try and do this myself)

Roethlisberger

E. Manning

Flacco

 

I won't get a pick until the 23rd overall after keepers.  However, only 3 of the owners with a pick ahead of me isn't keeping a QB.  So I'd likely be able to get my pick of one of the top 4 QBs left at that pick (though one guy did keep a QB and then use his first pick on another QB last year, so who knows).  I do agree I'm probably better off with both Jones and Bryant at WR then what's left among Stafford, Romo, Wilson, and Newton for QB than I am with Stafford, one of Bryant or Jones, and then whatever WR is left to choose from with the 23rd pick after keepers (probably someone like Torrey Smith or Danny Amendola or Pierre Garcon)



#7 bnickle

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 03:30 PM

Yeah, to have two likely top 10 RBs and WRS would be huge. But there is also top 5 upside for all of those guys at their positions. Wouldn't surprise me if they are 4 of the top 15 RB/WR/TE scorers in fantasy this year.  

 

 

Nothing wrong with riding with Romo ,Eli or Big Ben. That's assuming you wouldn't get to your hands on Stafford, Newton, or Wilson which is possible.

 

 

Team Romo, Eli or Ben up with a top of the line #2 QB like Joe, Cutler, Rivers and play the matchup.

 

 

 

Is your league 6 points or 4 points for a TD pass??



#8 Mackus

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 04:15 PM

6 point TDs.  If Stafford gets back to throwing 35-40 TDs he's amazing.  If he only throws 20 like last year, he's not really any better than the guys who will be available.



#9 JeremyStrain

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 04:21 PM

6 point TDs.  If Stafford gets back to throwing 35-40 TDs he's amazing.  If he only throws 20 like last year, he's not really any better than the guys who will be available.

 

Gotta look at OL, WR and RB for each QB. I like Wilson the best of the group overall, but each has ups and downs. Careful not to take a guy on past reputation with all the parity in the league. In theory Eli is a solid bet with Cruz, but he's hot and cold every other year it seems.

 

Stafford has Megatron, and Bush that will be seeing a LOT of touches, but his OL is a work in progress. Big Ben, Rivers and Cutler are both looking pretty alone in their offense. Who knows what losing Boldin is going to do to Flacco, and Schaub needs another WR to go with Johnson.

 

All in all that entire group (including Stafford) are all pretty close to each other, so maybe keeping the WR and RB are the better play (although I'm still not that high on Dez)


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#10 bnickle

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 04:24 PM

Stafford will throw INts too.

 

 

Wouldn't shock me to see ELi throw 30 again, like he did a few years ago. I think Joe could easily step up into the 25-30 range with 4000 yards. Romo is a  lock for 4000 yards and 25-30 TDs. Ben, if healthy,is also close to being a lock as a 25-30 TD guy 4000 yard guy.

 

 

 

You're not going to be getting one of the top tier QBs. Stafford could jump back up there but you can't count on it. So once you start talking about 2nd tier Qbs Im going to take the top or 2nd tier talent at the playmaker positions before I take a 2nd tier QB. Martin, McCoy, Jones, and Bryant are all top 2 tier playmakers at their positions.



#11 NewMarketSean

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 04:25 PM

In a auction league, just traded Cam, who I wasn't going to keep over Rodgers, for McCoy. Have Rodgers, McCoy and Cobb to keep for around $65 total in a $180 salary cap draft. Feeling pretty good.


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#12 Mackus

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 04:36 PM

In a auction league, just traded Cam, who I wasn't going to keep over Rodgers, for McCoy. Have Rodgers, McCoy and Cobb to keep for around $65 total in a $180 salary cap draft. Feeling pretty good.

 

Yeah, that's real solid.  I think Cobb will get fewer TDs than last year, but still be very productive.  $65 wouldn't be bad for Rodgers and McCoy alone, adding Cobb in, even with slightly lower expectations, is fantastic.



#13 Matt

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Posted 17 July 2013 - 07:41 PM

Without a doubt you keep McCoy, Martin, Dez, and Julio.



#14 Dr. FLK

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 10:59 AM

I need to pick 2 keepers.

 

I think I've narrowed it down to the following 3:

Peyton Manning

Alfred Morris

Eddie Lacy

 

I had Larry Fitzgerald on that list, but I'm pretty sure I now have those 3 guys all above him.  I assume I'm going to go with Manning and one of the RBs, but I can't decide which.  The homer Skins fan in me wants Morris.


Thoughts?



#15 Chris B

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 11:02 AM

Definitely Lacy

#16 Mackus

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 11:40 AM

Peyton and Lacy



#17 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 04:13 PM

Would anyone keep C.J. Spiller as a second round keeper in a 14 team league? I have the second pick so AP. Is likely gone. Then I could go Charles maybe McCoy, then I dont pick again for 25 picks, where I would have Spiller if I keep him, or could I do better with that second round pick there?
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#18 Mackus

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 09:40 PM

Would anyone keep C.J. Spiller as a second round keeper in a 14 team league? I have the second pick so AP. Is likely gone. Then I could go Charles maybe McCoy, then I dont pick again for 25 picks, where I would have Spiller if I keep him, or could I do better with that second round pick there?


Spiller is roughly worth the 25th to 30th pick. Usually you want surplus value out of a keeper, which isn't really the case for Spiller at that spot.

#19 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 09:55 PM

Spiller is roughly worth the 25th to 30th pick. Usually you want surplus value out of a keeper, which isn't really the case for Spiller at that spot.



That's about what I thought. I figure in addition to all the RBs going early, you have Megatron, Green, Andre Johnson, Dez Bryant maybe. Graham, Rodgers and or Manning maybe. At pick 27, at least 17 or 18 RBs are probably gone. Is Spiller one of them. Maybe I dont keep Spiller, go WR with the second round pick, and my third round pick is just three picks later. Either hes still there or I have to roll the dice on a guy like Bishop Sankey.
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#20 Mackus

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Posted 29 July 2014 - 09:59 PM

Why aren't guys like McCoy and Charles being kept in your league?<br />




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