42 replies to this topic

[RichardZ]

I still prefer Correa but Almora is sounding better and better. His opinion on Almora seems to be growing (Correa as well). Recently, I believe, he had him pegged as a low 800's OPS type of guy. Now we are in .900 territory. If he believes that, then that makes a big difference, in my book, in his offensive upside. Any of the three (Buxton too) would make me happy but I'd prefer 1) Correa 2) Almora 3) Buxton in that order. Now, will the O's go offense or pitching. I see a couple of mocks (which mean next to nothing at this point) have them taking Zimmer at #4.

[Greg Pappas]

Camden Depot: Weekly Preference List 5/9
http://camdendepot.b...-pref-list.html

Great write-up by Nick/Stotle. I appreciate the input.

Almora seems about as close to SAFE as a HS player can get. I love this kid. Buxton is tantalizing though. I wouldn't be disappointed in Buxton at four, but most seem to feel he'll be gone before then anyway.

Nick, how would you compare Gausman and Zimmer?

[Stotle]

I still prefer Correa but Almora is sounding better and better. His opinion on Almora seems to be growing (Correa as well). Recently, I believe, he had him pegged as a low 800's OPS type of guy. Now we are in .900 territory. If he believes that, then that makes a big difference, in my book, in his offensive upside. Any of the three (Buxton too) would make me happy but I'd prefer 1) Correa 2) Almora 3) Buxton in that order. Now, will the O's go offense or pitching. I see a couple of mocks (which mean next to nothing at this point) have them taking Zimmer at #4.

Approaching .900 as potential -- low-.800s as probability. Good chance it ends up some where in between and a little closer to low-.800s. Call it:

.285/.350/.460
vs
.310/.400/.500

Almora's and Correa's ascent on my pref list have each been fueled by college arms not stepping-up and solid springs. Almora is more battle-tested; I have exchanged about 20 emails regarding Correa's showing at the Excellence Tournament and heard a lot of positive response to his shorter swing (which I touched on in one of the earlier pref list articles).

But, yeah, both are certainly higher right now than I expected them to be at the beginning of the spring. I believe when I was discussing in January with an analyst I had 1. Giolito, 2. Appel, 3. Buxton, 4. Zunino, 5. Marrero up top.

[Stotle]

Camden Depot: Weekly Preference List 5/9
http://camdendepot.b...-pref-list.html

Great write-up by Nick/Stotle. I appreciate the input.

Almora seems about as close to SAFE as a HS player can get. I love this kid. Buxton is tantalizing though. I wouldn't be disappointed in Buxton at four, but most seem to feel he'll be gone before then anyway.

Nick, how would you compare Gausman and Zimmer?

I'm doing a more in-depth comparison of the college arms for next week's piece. Short answer is Gausman is more traditional body with higher end stuff. Zimmer was crisper early on but has seen velo dip. I like Zimmer's creativity in developing a cutter as an offspeed.

[Greg Pappas]

Great write-up by Nick/Stotle. I appreciate the input.

Almora seems about as close to SAFE as a HS player can get. I love this kid. Buxton is tantalizing though. I wouldn't be disappointed in Buxton at four, but most seem to feel he'll be gone before then anyway.

Nick, how would you compare Gausman and Zimmer?

I'm doing a more in-depth comparison of the college arms for next week's piece. Short answer is Gausman is more traditional body with higher end stuff. Zimmer was crisper early on but has seen velo dip. I like Zimmer's creativity in developing a cutter as an offspeed.

Excellent. I read recently that Giolito's injury was considered among the more 'minor' of elbow injuries. Anytime an arm like Giolito's comes along, coupled with a great foundation of mechanics and stuff, he will go very high, much like Taillon, Bundy, etc... however, do you anticipate that IF Giolito shows that he's able to dispel serious concerns over his ability to get "it" back, that he'll be back in play at picks 1-4?

[RichardZ]

I didn't realize that he had any surgery at all. I thought it was just a strain or sprain that was being rested. Where did you read about the surgery?

[Greg Pappas]

I didn't realize that he had any surgery at all. I thought it was just a strain or sprain that was being rested. Where did you read about the surgery?

He didn't actually, my mistake... I intended to use the word "injury", and not "surgery". Thanks for the correction... an the important distinction.

Here is Perfect Games' Patrick Ebert on Giolito, from May 4th...http://www.perfectga... ... ticle=6959

[Stotle]

Excellent. I read recently that Giolito's injury was considered among the more 'minor' of elbow injuries. Anytime an arm like Giolito's comes along, coupled with a great foundation of mechanics and stuff, he will go very high, much like Taillon, Bundy, etc... however, do you anticipate that IF Giolito shows that he's able to dispel serious concerns over his ability to get "it" back, that he'll be back in play at picks 1-4?

No surgery -- just a sprained ligament. MRI showed no significant structural damage.

Giolito will certainly be highly sought after if he comes out in two weeks and impresses with a bullpen session. It's debatable whether he is signable out of UCLA at this point. He would have been the likely pick at 1:1 had he been healthy all spring, which would have earned him $6-7 MM, likely. In order for BAL to sign him at 1:4, I'd be surprised if it took any less than $5 MM or so (possibly more). That would mean Baltimore would need to get creative with their other picks (since they don't have any high-value comp picks) or forfeit next year's pick and pay some penalty money.

[Greg Pappas]

My personal updated preferred list...

Correa, Almora, Gausman, Buxton, Appel, Zimmer, Fried, and... I haven't forgot about Giolito.

[JeremyStrain]

Giolito (concerned more with signing potential than injury, but BPA for me)
Appel
Correa
Gausman
Stroman
Zunino
Buxton
Zimmer

[Greg Pappas]

My list has not changed...


Correa, Almora, Gausman, Buxton, Appel, Zimmer, Fried... but Giolito has been eliminated (barring an unforeseen development) from my top ten. Rounding out my top ten are a few young men that should be long gone by the time we pick again in R2; Andrew Heaney, LHSP, Oklahoma State / HS RHSP Zach Eflin / and HS 3B'man Cory Seager.

Edit... Andrew Heaney vaults into my top ten.

[JeremyStrain]

Yeah I think I'm leaving mine the same. I still think there are going to be two steals in this draft in hindsight, Giolito (if he signs) and Stroman.

[JeffLong]

My newest top however many I list:

Buxton
Correa
Giolito
Gausman
Appel
Almora
Fried
Zunino
Zimmer

[Stotle]

Here's the final pref list, dated May 30, 2012. Barring any unforseen changes relating to health or asking price, this is where I came down for Baltimore -- full article ( http://camdendepot.b...ef-list_30.html )has video of all five final targets and comparisons of the college arms against each other, the prep position players against each other and an explanation for Zimmer as a "back-up":

Final Pref List:
1. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
2. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
3. Carlos Correa, ss/3b, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
4. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
5. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)

Back-up consideration:
Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco

No longer considering:
Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.
Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida

[Greg Pappas]

Here's the final pref list, dated May 30, 2012. Barring any unforseen changes relating to health or asking price, this is where I came down for Baltimore -- full article ( http://camdendepot.b...ef-list_30.html )has video of all five final targets and comparisons of the college arms against each other, the prep position players against each other and an explanation for Zimmer as a "back-up":

Final Pref List:
1. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
2. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
3. Carlos Correa, ss/3b, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
4. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
5. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)

Back-up consideration:
Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco

No longer considering:
Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.
Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida

Good stuff Nick. Thanks. I'll be happy with any of those five, as they are all in my top five, albeit a slightly different order. Gausman seems to be getting the most talk at #4... and you obviously agree that if he is our selection- it would be an excellent one.

[bnickle]

Yup, would be happy with any of Appel, Gausman, Buxton, Correa and Almora. Sounds like the O's will likely take one of these guys as well.

[JeffLong]

Hey guys - I wrote a piece over at the futurists (and my own site) on this topic.
Check it out if you'd like:

WW - http://warehousewort...-i-were-gm.html

Futurists - http://thefuturists....-i-were-the-gm/

[Greg Pappas]

After looking at the stats of the top pitchers this year, while very good, they do not jump out nearly as well as the top guys last year. However, the upside of Correa, Almora, and Buxton are such that they carry more weight with me. I see the ceilings of Appel, Gausman, Zimmer and Heaney as solid #2-3 ML starters, while the prep hitters have ceilings that touch All-Star level. There is obvious value in adding a quality front-to-mid rotation starter, but grabbing a potential star when you get the opportunity makes a bit more sense to me. Yes, risk factors heavily into these decisions, but I'm confident that both Correa and Almora will be at least as good at the ML level as the college pitchers will be, with Buxton the larger risk/reward. Giolito may also factor into the equation, but I'd be literally shocked if we hear his name before or at pick #4.

[RVAbird]

After looking at the stats of the top pitchers this year, while very good, they do not jump out nearly as well as the top guys last year. However, the upside of Correa, Almora, and Buxton are such that they carry more weight with me. I see the ceilings of Appel, Gausman, Zimmer and Heaney as solid #2-3 ML starters, while the prep hitters have ceilings that touch All-Star level. There is obvious value in adding a quality front-to-mid rotation starter, but grabbing a potential star when you get the opportunity makes a bit more sense to me. Yes, risk factors heavily into these decisions, but I'm confident that both Correa and Almora will be at least as good at the ML level as the college pitchers will be, with Buxton the larger risk/reward. Giolito may also factor into the equation, but I'd be literally shocked if we hear his name before or at pick #4.

I think it's perilous to judge college pitchers in the draft by how they've performed statistically. I agree that the realistic upside of Appel, Gausman et al is #2-3 starter. But I'd say the same about Bauer and Hultzen. I think those arms are comparable.

[Greg Pappas]

After looking at the stats of the top pitchers this year, while very good, they do not jump out nearly as well as the top guys last year. However, the upside of Correa, Almora, and Buxton are such that they carry more weight with me. I see the ceilings of Appel, Gausman, Zimmer and Heaney as solid #2-3 ML starters, while the prep hitters have ceilings that touch All-Star level. There is obvious value in adding a quality front-to-mid rotation starter, but grabbing a potential star when you get the opportunity makes a bit more sense to me. Yes, risk factors heavily into these decisions, but I'm confident that both Correa and Almora will be at least as good at the ML level as the college pitchers will be, with Buxton the larger risk/reward. Giolito may also factor into the equation, but I'd be literally shocked if we hear his name before or at pick #4.

I think it's perilous to judge college pitchers in the draft by how they've performed statistically. I agree that the realistic upside of Appel, Gausman et al is #2-3 starter. But I'd say the same about Bauer and Hultzen. I think those arms are comparable.

I agree with you about stats, and I didn't mean to imply that they are the end-all be-all. However, based on the scouting reports of all the collegiate pitchers ranked high both last year and this, there is a notable difference in results. I guess my point is that I feel more comfortable with the HS bats as opposed to the solid college starters we'll see go high. With that said, we may get one of the starters and I'll root hard for them.