71 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Baseball: Can the Orioles beat the Yankees in the AL East? This projection system says yes

https://www.baltimor...system-says-yes

[Mackus]

Can? Absolutely. 'Will they?' is the interesting question.

[Slidemaster]

Anything can happen, in theory.

[jamesdean]

I still say the Yankees will regress this year. Maybe they've improved their pitching somewhat but who knows how that will translate in that band box. Losing Soto was big and I don't care how the experts slice and dice it.

[bmore_ken]

If I pick the right numbers , I can win Powerball. Just saying. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I still say the Yankees will regress this year. Maybe they've improved their pitching somewhat but who knows how that will translate in that band box. Losing Soto was big and I don't care how the experts slice and dice it.

I will say the Orioles will regress this year. Maybe they improved their bullpen somewhat but who knows how that will translate in OPACY. Losing Santander and Burnes was big and I don't care how the experts slice and dice it.

[Mike B]

I think it comes down to the young players and Tyler O'Neill.  I think this is a good Oriole team.  For the record I do not think O'Neill is better than Santander, but he does some things better.  We do not yet have a suitable replacement for Burnes but there is some depth in the rotation, and it is possible, someone steps up.

If Westy, Holliday and Cowser continue to improve, and I think they will the Orioles will be very good.  The growth in the lineup needs to come from a better Adley and the younger players.

[jamesdean]

I will say the Orioles will regress this year. Maybe they improved their bullpen somewhat but who knows how that will translate in OPACY. Losing Santander and Burnes was big and I don't care how the experts slice and dice it.

You could very well be right. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Am I excited for the season? Absolutely.

 

Do I think the O's have the potential to make the playoffs? Absolutely.

 

Do I think the O's have the potential to win the WS? Eh sort of.

 

Am I pessimistic? Yeah probably too much but they are relying on a ton of IFs.

1. Will O'Neill play enough to earn his keep?

2. Will Sugano's pitching translate to the ML?

3. Will Morton continue to age well?

4. Will GRod step up?

5. Will Bradish return and give us a late summer boost?

6. Will the young guys improve? And thats a bunch of IFs built into one.

 

Certainly you can make these types of judgements on every team in baseball. But overall I think the O's playoff shot has more IFs than most of the other contenders.

[Ravens2006]

Keeping it very simple... they won more games without Burnes on the roster than they did with him. Burnes was a great pickup and did what they hoped he would all year, through his one playoff start. Come playoff time the offense let him / them down, like it did the whole second half and sadly in all their "modern times" playoff appearances.

Losing Burnes doesn't mean they'll be better or worse. Depends on whether guys play to their potential or not, stay healthy or not, younger guys getting their chance step up or improve, etc.

Doesn't mean I'm happy with their off-season, but as I have said many times, John Angelos not being involved with this franchise satisfies me for another year or so before I start to panic again. Will go to the grave absolutely 100% certain Burnes and Eflin would have never been added to begin with if not for the ownership change. Elias has shown he can build a core from the ground up. Time will tell if he can do the extra to put the players in the best position possible to get over the hump deeper in to fall...

[dude]

Projection systems don't determine who can win and who can't.  Projection systems only have value in describing some generic assessment of individual season statistics based on linear progressions of things that may or may not be true.  

 

We discussed this in the other thread on projections, but play a season 1000 times and you get some bell-curve of outcomes.  Projections just try to tell you want the most-likely outcomes are of potential results.  The worst teams can play a 3-sigma outcome and beat the best team(s).  Anyone can beat anyone despite what PECOTA says before the season.

 

Outcomes are driven by more than Talent.  Everyone has Talent, that's why everyone in these projections bunches - on average - to the middle.  Nobody - in any outcome - loses 140 games or wins 140 games.  Even the worst teams who aren't even trying (organizationally) to win can beat the best teams that are trying desperately to win.

 

Everyone wants to make this a Talent fight, but it's way more than that.  Everyone (most everyone) says they get that but then they default to Talent only. 

 

I think the AL (really all of Baseball) is kind of flat for Talent right now.  You only have 2 teams (MIA and CWS) that aren't really trying and one confused team (COL) that doesn't seem to know what they're doing. There are a number of teams (like PIT and DC) that have had poor offseasons (build opportunity) and a bunch others that seem to have significant resourcing issues (limiting moves) probably because of the DSG debacle.

 

Whatever.  Nobody in the AL is separated and it's always true that we'll figure it out on the field. 

 

What are the non-talent factors which are going to hold them back in your opinion? - Chris

 

Chris, I'll pull this comment (which is kind of out-of-context) from the other thread, because it's the discussion above.

 

I'd argue the Performance Formula works everywhere.  Government, Business, Military, Sports, everything.

 

Here's the short answer to your question: Leadership and Chemistry.

 

I can write pages on it and the perspective/indicators that I see, but whatever.  You've written a lot of words on this in other places.  You recently wrote a long post along similar lines and where I agree with something you wrote, you generally dismiss the value.  Most of the rest of it, I just disagree with.  I disagree with how you define it, how it applies and what it means (consequences).

[BSLChrisStoner]

Pull that post of mine and add it here.

[NewMarketSean]

Yankees have the best pitching staff in the AL.

 

Their offense (and defense) will be of some concern.

 

I think they should be the favorites to win the division.

[mikezpen]

The O's youthful lineup has a lot of room to improve. NY's doesn't. It's likely about as good as it w/get. Judge is 33 soon; w/he slow down some?  I'd still make them the favs to win the division because of their pitching.

[jamesdean]

The O's youthful lineup has a lot of room to improve. NY's doesn't. It's likely about as good as it w/get. Judge is 33 soon; w/he slow down some?  I'd still make them the favs to win the division because of their pitching.

What Judge is due for is a major injury.  It's only a matter of time.  PED's will build you up but they'll also tear you down. 

[RichardZ]

What Judge is due for is a major injury.  It's only a matter of time.  PED's will build you up but they'll also tear you down. 

I don’t know. Nelson Cruz lasted a long time. Barry Bonds too.

[dude]

Pull that post of mine and add it here.

 

Is this a "pull that post" because you don't think I can do it or do you really want to have a conversation about it?

At some point, I feel like I should get a consulting fee.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Is this a "pull that post" because you don't think I can do it or do you really want to have a conversation about it?
At some point, I feel like I should get a consulting fee.

It's I don't feel like looking for it, and since you made this thread about that.. just add my prior comments so it saves me from writing the same thing.

And then we can discuss further.

[dude]

....from THIS THREAD, Chris's post #16. (I only took out some of the extra line spaces)

 

Re: Character / Chemistry / Culture... 

 

You want people who: 

 

- Put team over individual

- Are self motivated

- Have growth mentalities... in baseball sense, seek more knowledge, and personal improvement

- Are competitive
- Have self accountability

 

Chemistry?  I think that often is chicken vs. the egg.   

Part of it is do you like who you work with?
Another part is do you win?  If you are winning games, everyone feels good, and then there is lots of talk about positive chemistry.
I know it is argued that the positive chemistry is what allows for the winning, but that feels like a stretch to me. 

 

Culture?

 

Do people handle issues directly vs. being passive aggressive, or going through the press?

Do issues stay behind closed doors?

Do you know how to win as individuals (winning work habits), and as organization?
Do you treat your players as adults?
Do you do things top notch as an organization, or are you using duct tape?

 

Again, if you win...  the culture is always great. 
If you lose, the finger pointing begins. 

Do I think character, chemistry, and culture matter?  Sure. 
As Mackus mentioned, and as been discussed ad nauseum before... it's hard to evaluate from here. 

 

Can a team with less talent exceed expectations if they are exceptional with character, chemistry, and culture? 

Yeah, I could believe that.

Can a team with great talent underachieve if their culture is not sufficient? 
Yeah, I would believe that too. 

 

Still, give me the team with the most talent...   as I think at the ML level, that's the overwhelming determining factor in what separates individuals and teams over 162.   (Get to the playoffs, and SSS kicks in, and then any talent difference means less.

 

------

[again, for anyone not tracking this discussion, these are Chris's words, not mine]

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The O's youthful lineup has a lot of room to improve. NY's doesn't. It's likely about as good as it w/get. Judge is 33 soon; w/he slow down some?  I'd still make them the favs to win the division because of their pitching.

This is what I find humorous. O's fans make points about other teams "aging players' as a reason why the O's could be better than that team. Yet the two SP the O's signed this winter are both older than that.

 

1. A 35 year old from Japan with zero ML experience.

2. A 41 year old.

 

Are you going to tell me that Judge is likely to falter quicker at his age because he plays in the field vs a SP?