70 replies to this topic

[makoman]

Yeah, they did a great job with Westburg.  So far that seems to be the exception.  Not that they haven't hit with some other guys obviously, I'm talking specifically about guys that had a questionable hit tool that they seem to think they can fix.  The list of failures is a lot longer than the list of successes.  Which isn't entirely surprising, but still, I'm just surprised they keep taking those types of guys.  

Right, Westburg wasn't really that type, just a solid all around guy in college with a seemingly fine hit tool.

 

I'm not sure who you're thinking of as poor hit tool guys, I'd say Beavers, Fabian, Bradfield, Honeycutt aren't failures yet, but are still TBD and not successes either. John Rhodes maybe but he's gone. 

[glenn__davis]

Lets cool the jets a bit here. Thet traded Ortiz who looks like he is probably gonna be a reg. TBD on Norby but hes made it to the bigs. Fabian is probably a 4th OFer. Beavers just made it to AAA and has been solid doing it. Horvath still has potential albeit it in the Rays org

 

Talking specifically about the "low hit tool" guys.  Ortiz and Norby not in that group, in fact I specifically remember Norby was supposed to have an advanced hit tool.

 

Fabian is in that group and is a borderline non-prospect to me.  I know Bob likes him but you have to be able to make some contact.  

 

Beavers is in that group and took a pretty big step back last year.  Started great but slumped pretty badly towards the end.  He didn't get promoted to AAA on merit, I think that was just Elias trying to kick start him a bit.

 

Shoot, you could include Stowers also.  He's in the show but hasn't produced yet.  Zach Watson never developed.  Max Wagner has done nothing of note.

 

Of course there will be more misses than hits, but to me they going to the well with that type of player and I'm not sure it's worth it.  Honeycutt obviously is in the group so I think it will be interesting to follow him this year.

[glenn__davis]

Right, Westburg wasn't really that type, just a solid all around guy in college with a seemingly fine hit tool.

 

I'm not sure who you're thinking of as poor hit tool guys, I'd say Beavers, Fabian, Bradfield, Honeycutt aren't failures yet, but are still TBD and not successes either. John Rhodes maybe but he's gone. 

 

Westburg definitely had some concerns regarding swing and miss.  There was question on whether or not he'd be able to keep his k-rate low enough without sacrificing power.  He's been great and is a clear win for the drafting/development team.

 

I liked the Bradfield pick a lot, I think the issue there was more just power as opposed to hit tool.  

 

Yeah, Rhodes is another good pull.  Reed Trimble, though he just hasn't been able to stay on the field.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Broadly speaking I do wish they would put a bit more emphasis on contact. To be fair though, speed and defense also seem to be a big part of the profile. So its just about what you tools you want to trade off when you start talking about some of the prospects in this range.

[RichardZ]

There is strength in numbers. Elias track record on college hitters after the 1st round isn’t great. Of course, no team has a great track record after the 1st round.

They took the 4 HS players later in the draft last year and I like that strategy for maybe getting a lucky hit on one of them.

With our lineup pretty set for the next two years, last years draft plus a burgeoning international program, this might be the year to go <gasp> college pitcher heavy with a majority of those top 100 picks.

[RichardZ]

Mock Draft 1.0. (Me)

2025 Draft

https://www.mlb.com/...rospects/draft/

(19) Dean Curley SS Tennessee. (Ranked #24)
(31).Nick Dumesnil OF Cal Baptist. (#35)
(32).Quentin Young 3B/OF HS. (#37)
(59) Patrick Forbes RHP Louisville (#62)
(71) Nelson Keljo LHP Oregon St. (#89)
(94) Miguel Sime RHP HS. (#100)

[RichardZ]

Mock Draft 1.0. (Me)
2025 Draft
https://www.mlb.com/...rospects/draft/
(19) Dean Curley SS Tennessee. (Ranked #24)
(31).Nick Dumesnil OF Cal Baptist. (#35)
(32).Quentin Young 3B/OF HS. (#37)
(59) Patrick Forbes RHP Louisville (#62)
(71) Nelson Keljo LHP Oregon St. (#89)
(94) Miguel Sime RHP HS. (#100)

Update.

19 Nick Dumesnil. CF Cal Baptist

31. Ethan Conrad OF Wake Forest

32. Henry Godbout 2B Virginia

59. James Ellwanger RHP Dallas Baptist

71. Patric Forbes RHP Louisville

94. Noah Yoder RHP HS

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: Updating the 2025 Draft Rankings

[dude]

FanGraphs: Updating the 2025 Draft Rankings

 

Obviously a lot of opinion (based on small samples) goes into these things, but there's some significant differences in there from Pipeline.

[RichardZ]

Obviously a lot of opinion (based on small samples) goes into these things, but there's some significant differences in there from Pipeline.

I’m forecasting your mock draft.

19. Henry Ford 1B/RF Virginia

30. Henry Godbout 2B Virginia
31. Harrison Didawick OF Virginia

[dude]

I’m forecasting your mock draft.

19. Henry Ford 1B/RF Virginia

30. Henry Godbout 2B Virginia
31. Harrison Didawick OF Virginia

 

Nope.  Although Didawick is interesting to me.  I had him as a guy to consider last year and he went undrafted as a draft eligible sophomore.  Pipeline doesn't have him in the top 100....FG has him at 41.

 

Right idea (for me), but wrong team....but I'm probably not going to Volunteer my picks this year.

[Mackus]

Think I say this every year, but respect to those of you who pay close enough attention to have an opinion past the top handful or so of picks, especially this far out. I can't do it. I'll learn about who they take on draft night and go from there.

Curious if with 3 similar picks we see Elias really lean into himself and go with three college bats or if he uses the surplus to branch out and take a pitcher or high school bat. I'll guess that we see two HS bats and then one wildcard on Night 1.

Also interested to see if they play any signing bonus games or if they just go near slot with all the picks. With the three firsts, they would have the opportunity to draft someone who is a top-10 talent but has slipped for signability reasons. The picks are gonna be something like $4.2M, $2.9M, $2.9M (at least that's what they were in 2024), so could conceivably give $6M to the #19 pick if there is a top-10 guy who's dropped and then go underslot with one of the comp picks and get a toolsy back-end top-100 prospect for $1M (this is actually how the Padres ended up with Jackson Merrill, but that's a very long shot result). Alternatively could go a little underslot with any/all of the first round picks so we could go overslot with any/all of the three other top-100 picks. From a strategy standpoint, I think I like that better but of course depends on the draft class.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Think I say this every year, but respect to those of you who pay close enough attention to have an opinion past the top handful or so of picks, especially this far out. I can't do it. I'll learn about who they take on draft night and go from there.

Curious if with 3 similar picks we see Elias really lean into himself and go with three college bats or if he uses the surplus to branch out and take a pitcher or high school bat. I'll guess that we see two HS bats and then one wildcard on Night 1.

Also interested to see if they play any signing bonus games or if they just go near slot with all the picks. With the three firsts, they would have the opportunity to draft someone who is a top-10 talent but has slipped for signability reasons. The picks are gonna be something like $4.2M, $2.9M, $2.9M (at least that's what they were in 2024), so could conceivably give $6M to the #19 pick if there is a top-10 guy who's dropped and then go underslot with one of the comp picks and get a toolsy back-end top-100 prospect for $1M (this is actually how the Padres ended up with Jackson Merrill, but that's a very long shot result). Alternatively could go a little underslot with any/all of the first round picks so we could go overslot with any/all of the three other top-100 picks. From a strategy standpoint, I think I like that better but of course depends on the draft class.

 

Yeah I enjoyed reading about the candidates for the #1 pick for the Holliday draft (was pretty sold on Termarr as the best hit tool while also being underslot and also remember Slide threatening to overthrow Elias if they took Brooks Lee) but as long as our first pick is in the 20s it's none of my business haha 

[RichardZ]

Think I say this every year, but respect to those of you who pay close enough attention to have an opinion past the top handful or so of picks, especially this far out. I can't do it. I'll learn about who they take on draft night and go from there.
Curious if with 3 similar picks we see Elias really lean into himself and go with three college bats or if he uses the surplus to branch out and take a pitcher or high school bat. I'll guess that we see two HS bats and then one wildcard on Night 1.
Also interested to see if they play any signing bonus games or if they just go near slot with all the picks. With the three firsts, they would have the opportunity to draft someone who is a top-10 talent but has slipped for signability reasons. The picks are gonna be something like $4.2M, $2.9M, $2.9M (at least that's what they were in 2024), so could conceivably give $6M to the #19 pick if there is a top-10 guy who's dropped and then go underslot with one of the comp picks and get a toolsy back-end top-100 prospect for $1M (this is actually how the Padres ended up with Jackson Merrill, but that's a very long shot result). Alternatively could go a little underslot with any/all of the first round picks so we could go overslot with any/all of the three other top-100 picks. From a strategy standpoint, I think I like that better but of course depends on the draft class.

Lots of things can change before the draft so we’ll see. From what I read there aren’t many, if any, elite players at the top of the draft. I see some mocks who have a player rated at #7 and he’s #36 in another. There seems to be a consensus on the top 5 but even hitters within that top 5 like Ethan Holliday and Jace LaViolette come with significant question marks. I wouldn’t be surprised if Holliday even slid out of the top ten.

Elias usually plays it pretty straight with bonuses. Last year he saved enough to go over on D.J. Layton and Nate George, two HS hitters with promise, but hardly high profile players.

History says that #19, #30, and #31 are college position players. Certainly it wouldn’t be a shock if one of them was a pitcher. It would be a shock to me if more than one was a pitcher.

[dude]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Holliday even slid out of the top ten.

 

That would be a big surprise to me.  Boras is going to try and get him 1-1.  You can argue fit and other things, but given all of the context around DC, Holliday seems like the best option.  You can certainly argue most upside...but if DC balks for whatever reason, we've seen Boras manage the draft (like Jackson's draft) so Holliday could hold a 1-2 number and see who jumps on him...that's a scenario that you have for Mackus above.

[Mackus]

Elias usually plays it pretty straight with bonuses. Last year he saved enough to go over on D.J. Layton and Nate George, two HS hitters with promise, but hardly high profile players.

 

Way underslot in '20 and '21.#1 picks are usually a touch under but only kind of on a technical level, neither Adley or Holliday were the same type of underslots like Kjerstad and Cowser were.  '23 and '24 were straight up.   

 

I thought the strtegy in 2020 was brilliant.  The scouting that year was all messed up with no season.  No way to determine who among the top handful or two of guys would've risen to the top.  So just take the one who'll sign for the least and get more bullets later.  That worked out great, both in that Kjerstad still hit despite taking #8 money instead of #2 and then one of the guys we paid later exploded (Mayo).  But even if it hadn't, I thought it was a real smart approach.  Other years were less weird.

[RichardZ]

That would be a big surprise to me.  Boras is going to try and get him 1-1.  You can argue fit and other things, but given all of the context around DC, Holliday seems like the best option.  You can certainly argue most upside...but if DC balks for whatever reason, we've seen Boras manage the draft (like Jackson's draft) so Holliday could hold a 1-2 number and see who jumps on him...that's a scenario that you have for Mackus above.

It’s quite possible that Ethan Holliday just isn’t 1:1 material at draft time. Boras only has so much power. There are some serious questions about a hole in his swing and you’re likely looking at a 3B or COF. As of today I’d put my money on Jamie Arnold the college LHP but things can change a ton between now and then. That’s why it’s silly about getting hung up on Ethan Holiday at 1:1 at this time.

[RichardZ]

Way underslot in '20 and '21.#1 picks are usually a touch under but only kind of on a technical level, neither Adley or Holliday were the same type of underslots like Kjerstad and Cowser were. '23 and '24 were straight up.

I thought the strtegy in 2020 was brilliant. The scouting that year was all messed up with no season. No way to determine who among the top handful or two of guys would've risen to the top. So just take the one who'll sign for the least and get more bullets later. That worked out great, both in that Kjerstad still hit despite taking #8 money instead of #2 and then one of the guys we paid later exploded (Mayo). But even if it hadn't, I thought it was a real smart approach. Other years were less weird.

The underslots were when we had top 5 picks. Straight up at #17 and #21?. At #19 I’d bet on straight up.

I’m not so sure that 2020-21 were complete underslot strategies. I don’t think they purposely passed on a player they liked significantly better to go underslot. They either just like Kjerstad best at #2 or didn’t see enough separation between a group and decided to take the best discount.

[Mackus]

The underslots were when we had top 5 picks. Straight up at #17 and #21?. At #19 I’d bet on straight up.

I’m not so sure that 2020-21 were complete underslot strategies. I don’t think they purposely passed on a player they liked significantly better to go underslot. They either just like Kjerstad best at #2 or didn’t see enough separation between a group and decided to take the best discount.

 

Staying around slot is definitely the more likely path but they've made some game theory moves before and with 3 picks in the first round it is a bit of a different scenario than just having your own 1st round pick and nothing else.  I don't know the class at all, and that dictates a lot of the strategy, but think there are cases to be made for going under, slot or over at #19 and similar for the other 1st round picks.  

[dude]

It’s quite possible that Ethan Holliday just isn’t 1:1 material at draft time. Boras only has so much power. There are some serious questions about a hole in his swing and you’re likely looking at a 3B or COF. As of today I’d put my money on Jamie Arnold the college LHP but things can change a ton between now and then. That’s why it’s silly about getting hung up on Ethan Holiday at 1:1 at this time.

 

ok