41 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

It's not reasonable to not count the Burnes trade as a major trade. We gave up a huge package to get him. Ortiz was part of a crowd but he wasn't the only piece.

You can easily not expect another similar trade. But that one was huge by any definition.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

It's not reasonable to not count the Burnes trade as a major trade. We gave up a huge package to get him. Ortiz was part of a crowd but he wasn't the only piece.

You can easily not expect another similar trade. But that one was huge by any definition.

Ok but it was a "major" trade with little impact on the future of the O's. Ortiz wasn't going to factor in here. Now guys like Mayo, Bassalo, and Kjerstad are a different story,

[ivanbalt]

You don't think it's in Elias DNA to pay for a Free Agent SP... why?

If the answer is he hasn't, then don't you have to factor in the change of ownership (and where the club is now) vs what you've seen prior.

The 3 starters above are each going to get significantly different deals imo.

I don't see Rubenstein spending the money for someone like Burnes.  Purely speculation, but based on things at Camden Yards, the gutting of Birdland benefits and the BS survey looking for ways to milk more money out of fans, I just have a bad feeling.

 

Now I'm sure he's not the second coming of John Angelos, but I don't see any big FA contracts coming despite years of tiny payrolls. 

 

Hopefully I'm wrong.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Ok but it was a "major" trade with little impact on the future of the O's. Ortiz wasn't going to factor in here. Now guys like Mayo, Bassalo, and Kjerstad are a different story,

 

Yeah I get what you're saying, I'd say it was a major trade but an affordable one, whereas idk Mayo for Crochet or whatever would be major but more expensive

[makoman]

I don't see Rubenstein spending the money for someone like Burnes.  Purely speculation, but based on things at Camden Yards, the gutting of Birdland benefits and the BS survey looking for ways to milk more money out of fans, I just have a bad feeling.

 

Now I'm sure he's not the second coming of John Angelos, but I don't see any big FA contracts coming despite years of tiny payrolls. 

 

Hopefully I'm wrong.

The years of tiny payrolls don't matter anymore. Rubenstein got no benefit from that, he didn't get a better price because the payroll was nothing in 2021. So any hope that the savings would be invested later (unlikely as that hope was) are gone.

 

There are some minor signs that are ok. Burnes was I think the most ever paid by the team to a pitcher in a single year, and Eflin will top that next year. I feel like they don't get Eflin with Angelos, or they make the Rays pay half+ and give up Basallo. But yeah, until they actually make a longer term larger deal, it's I'll believe it when I see it. I think everyone agrees they need a starter so we'll see soon enough if they are shopping in the bargain bin.

[dude]

The years of tiny payrolls don't matter anymore. Rubenstein got no benefit from that, he didn't get a better price because the payroll was nothing in 2021. So any hope that the savings would be invested later (unlikely as that hope was) are gone.

 

This.  Also, the Angelos family had the financial advantage of having bought it for 175M (w/group) back in the 90s, so they don't have a load outside of borrowing money against the Team and using the Team to pay off the loan.

 

There is no bank or savings from the past.  There never was, even with Angelos, but that line of thinking gets completely cut off with the sale and now this group does have a 1.7+B loan they have to manage however they want.  They have the money, this group has the wherewithal to do what they want, but because you have it doesn't mean you throw it at something.

 

There may be ways to leverage money to get pitching, but it's not going to be through FA.  This FA pitching market sucks.

[dude]

For the lead question

 

Burnes 11/330M (Mets)

 

Fried 7/180M (Dodgers)

 

Snell 7/180M in a heavily deferred structure (Giants or maybe the Mariners) 

[hallas]

Burnes 7/260
Fried 6/240
Snell 4/180

[Slidemaster]

For the lead question

Burnes 11/330M (Mets)

Fried 7/180M (Dodgers)

Snell 7/180M in a heavily deferred structure (Giants or maybe the Mariners)

Whoever gives him that deserves what they get.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The  top offer Snell got last year was 6 years $150M, right?

 

He's now a year older... why is he getting a longer deal, with more total dollars (even if a large part is deferred)?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Whoever gives him that deserves what they get.

Totally agree. 

I think he will be very good for 3-4 years, but there is even risk on a 3-4 year deal.

Him getting 11 years sounds crazy to me.

[Mackus]

Totally agree.

I think he will be very good for 3-4 years, but there is even risk on a 3-4 year deal.

Him getting 11 years sounds crazy to me.

I don't expect him to get a long deal, but most of the really crazy long deals we've seen recently are done for luxury tax reasons and not because teams think the guys are still going to be playing well in their late 30s or even into 40s.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I don't expect him to get a long deal, but most of the really crazy long deals we've seen recently are done for luxury tax reasons and not because teams think the guys are still going to be playing well in their late 30s or even into 40s.

 

So just extending the deal past expected performance to skirt the luxury tax? Interesting. Something I haven't directly paid attention to.
 

[BobPhelan]

Burnes - 8/$275M

Fried - 6/$180M

Snell - 5/$150M

[dude]

Him getting 11 years sounds crazy to me.

So just extending the deal past expected performance to skirt the luxury tax? Interesting. Something I haven't directly paid attention to.

 

My lack of a direct response is because I'm not sure what to say.

[BSLChrisStoner]

My lack of a direct response is because I'm not sure what to say.

Seems like paying the luxury tax would make more sense vs having an extended contract on the books for a non performing player even when factoring in inflation.

If he gets 11 years, take a bow.

[Mackus]

So just extending the deal past expected performance to skirt the luxury tax? Interesting. Something I haven't directly paid attention to.

Basically. Bogaerts and Turner were the first obvious examples. Same money the were expected to get but spread over more years to lower the AAV and give the teams a little better shot at staying under whatever luxury tax threshold they are under. Also lowers the NPV slightly to be paying out over a longer time.

[dude]

The  top offer Snell got last year was 6 years $150M, right?

 

He's now a year older... why is he getting a longer deal, with more total dollars (even if a large part is deferred)?

 

Well I think it's crazy because I don't want the guy on my team for any price, but the optics were so bad last year, I'd guess they'll (Team Boras and Snell) go pretty far to adjust the narrative.  For example, you already see Chapman signing a 6/150 deal which is out of character, but seeks to recover some of this narrative.  You also had Montgomery walk away from that Agency and Bellinger can't opt out.

 

Also, this pitching market (actually kind of the whole market) sucks.  There's very little to invest in outside Burnes and Fried.

 

The Giants have been desperate for someone to take their money for several years now and they just moved Zaidi and hired Posey so I'm not sure what any of that will mean yet.

 

Snell (most reports) wanted to go to Seattle (home) last year.  The Mariners got great performance out of their SPs like year (Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, Woo) and they're all RHed.  I think Snell is a huge risk, but if they can add a lefty to the group and use Castillo as trade bait for another deal, they could actually improve their pitching and offense and if Snell lets them do something crazy (like defer half his deal) then they can lower their payroll at the same time.

 

Boras did this with Scherzer and he's used deferrals fairly frequently to manage perception (including guys like Chris Davis).

 

The Mariners have been on sort of an odd path with their finances last year so there's something going on and I have no idea with whatever the issues are have concluded or not.  They need offensive help.  They may lack $$-flexibility. 

 

...so if they could sign Snell for 7/180 and he'd defer half the contract, that's a 5M SB and 12.5M per year for the next 7 years and they'll worry about the deferred money 8 years from now.  If they trade Castillo, they are saving about 10M per year and they could do something like tie a piece of the trade to Haniger and his 15.5M (part of last years salary swapping) in addition to some prospect/player Talent.

 

 Again, I don't want Snell on any team I care about, but his situation and the Mariners situation may intersect enough that they could put something together. 

 

Dipoto would need a trade partner willing to make something happen. Hmmmm.

[Mackus]

Seems like paying the luxury tax would make more sense vs having an extended contract on the books for a non performing player even when factoring in inflation.

If he gets 11 years, take a bow.

It's not just the tax on the contract but the goal of occasionally getting below the threshold to avoid the implications of being 2nd or 3rd time payers. The top tax level is 110%, so it's significant.

[dude]

Basically. Bogaerts and Turner were the first obvious examples. Same money the were expected to get but spread over more years to lower the AAV and give the teams a little better shot at staying under whatever luxury tax threshold they are under. Also lowers the NPV slightly to be paying out over a longer time.

 

...and Harper before that.  Boras used "13 years" to get the total value (330M) they wanted which was - at the time - the "most lucrative contract".

 

They want 326M.  If the bidding doesn't make that easy (I don't think it will), they'll fall back to years and deferrals (financial games) to get there.

 

I think it's 10/330 as a base and whether they do 11-12-13 years to make it work, they'll get the base years under 30M and whatever happens on the backend doesn't matter.