42 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I mean AAA uses the MLB ball. So until you not only get to that higher level where the competition is better but also you start using the MLB baseball I'll hold my breath. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Again, Im not arguing that the pitching development is bad but Im also in no mood to buy any propaganda selling it as great either. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I have not seen much to give me a warm fuzzy on our pitching development.

[BobPhelan]

I mean Norfolk's staff is god awful. Just the absolute s**ts. Im in no mood to be told how great our pitching development is when the top level is this bad.

You asked, I answered. Just because the major league staff crapped the bed today and mostly meaningless guys in AAA are struggling doesn’t mean the pitching development sucks. Brnovich and Johnson are being slow played coming back from surgery or they would already be at AAA right now. Trey McGough was a MiLB rule 5 pick coming off injury who looks great and will be stretched out next season. Brandon Young is being mentioned on national lists. Tons of talented arms lower in the system.

But go off.

[BobPhelan]

Again, Im not arguing that the pitching development is bad but Im also in no mood to buy any propaganda selling it as great either.

Now I’m propaganda? Ok… I’m done.

[BobPhelan]

I have not seen much to give me a warm fuzzy on our pitching development.

You watch a lot of minor league baseball?

[BaltBird 24]

To be fair, aside from the top guys like Mayo, Kjerstad, Holliday, Norby the offensive guys haven't shown a ton of development either. Not much to get excited about below AAA besides Basallo who's had some struggles, maybe Etzel.

None of Beavers, Fabian, Horvath, Wagner, Bradfield have really taken a step forward.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Grayson is a stud. Bradish is a stud. Hall was turned into Burnes. Id say they get credit for John Means. Kremer is a fine 3/4 starter.

How many teams have guys lined up to be top to middle of the rotation arms right away? You develop guys that stick as starters and hope to take them to the next level. Pretty sure everyone was downplaying Bradish for a long time until he became who he is. And pitchers just take longer to develop.

Disagree calling Grayson a stud but whatever Im not going to get into a semantics debate. He is a fine young pitcher and a check mark for development. He was also uber talented and a top 15 pick in the draft. Theyve done enough with the talent that was already here for me to say they've done ok. Where is the next wave though. I hear its the year of the pitcher or whatever in the minors. I just dont get it with Norfolk's staff crapping the bed and Bowie doesnt look like they have anything special either

[BobPhelan]

Disagree calling Grayson a stud but whatever Im not going to get into a semantics debate. He is a fine young pitcher and a check mark for development. He was also uber talented and a top 15 pick in the draft. Theyve done enough with the talent that was already here for me to say they've done ok. Where is the next wave though. I hear its the year of the pitcher or whatever in the minors. I just dont get it with Norfolk's staff crapping the bed and Bowie doesnt look like they have anything special either

You lost any chance of getting any real analysis from me.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Now I’m propaganda? Ok… I’m done.

Relax. You know Im a fan of you and your work and respect you. I just am pushing back on anyone who is claiming this pitching developement to be great. YOu told me thats what the experts tell you. 

[BaltBird 24]

Johnson, Brnovich, Weston, and Bright all look worth keeping an eye on in AA.

[BaltBird 24]

Baumeister, Chace, Portes, De Leon, Fruit, Nunez (hopefully not seriously hurt), Forret in Aberdeen.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Baumeister, Chace, Portes, De Leon, Fruit, Nunez (hopefully not seriously hurt), Forret in Aberdeen.

Not unusual for guys to look good in the lower minors. Even AA. A lot of times the test comes at AAA. THats not unique to the Elias regime. Has always been the test. We know we can go through the guys over the last 10-15 years that have put up really good numbers in lower minors but hit a wall between AAA or MLB. THats not to say that these arms wont end up as good MLB players its just that I'll personally really pay attention  at AAA. 

[BobPhelan]

Relax. You know Im a fan of you and your work and respect you. I just am pushing back on anyone who is claiming this pitching developement to be great. YOu told me thats what the experts tell you.

You’re right, I haven’t been able to sleep for over a week thanks to getting poison ivy all over me and put on a steroid so I’m no doubt overreacting. Reactionary posts just get old after a bad game or stretch.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

You’re right, I haven’t been able to sleep for over a week thanks to getting poison ivy all over me and put on a steroid so I’m no doubt overreacting. Reactionary posts just get old after a bad game or stretch.

No worries. Get better. Poison Ivy is the worst. 

[BobPhelan]

Baumeister, Chace, Portes, De Leon, Fruit, Nunez (hopefully not seriously hurt), Forret in Aberdeen.

Trey Gibson promoted to Aberdeen after a great outing tonight. Tons of talented arms throughout the system.

[mdrunning]

I think it's important to remember that had things gone as planned, Povich wouldn't even be here. 

 

Before today's disaster, he had put up some pretty good numbers in his past five starts. That's a small sample size, but it demonstrated what he can do when he does have command. You can still win on days when you don't have your best stuff, but you're in trouble when your control hits the showers early. I think a lot of Povich's shortcomings can be addressed, so he's worth a longer look before we pass final judgment. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think it's important to remember that had things gone as planned, Povich wouldn't even be here.

Before today's disaster, he had put up some pretty good numbers in his past five starts. That's a small sample size, but it demonstrated what he can do when he does have command. You can still win on days when you don't have your best stuff, but you're in trouble when your control hits the showers early. I think a lot of Povich's shortcomings can be addressed, so he's worth a longer look before we pass final judgment.

If we were on a 10 game win streak and Povich hadnt blown up today I think its fair to question the Os pitching depth and development. This discussion came to a head today in this thread but it wasn't solely a reaction to Povich blowing up. I have no idea what to think of Povich. He will get a long look and plenty of starts between '24 and '25.

[makoman]

"He's better if you take all his bad games away" is admittedly true for everyone lol but Grayson's ERA this year is basically being tanked by allowing 7 runs twice, every other game he's allowed 4 (once), 2, 1 or 0. 15 starts, 12 with 2 or fewer ER is pretty solid even with two disasters thrown in there imo. 

 

If you take out both Burnes’ and Grayson’s two worst starts, you get:

 

Grayson

6.1 inn/start

2.27 ERA

3.34 FIP

1.07 WHIP

6.7 H/9

2.9 BB/9

9.5 K/9

0.9 HR/9

 

Burnes

6.25 inn/start

1.98 ERA

3.27 FIP

1.05 WHIP

7.3 H/9

2.2 BB/9

8.6 K/9

0.9 HR/9

 

The impressive thing about Burnes is it wasn’t easy to pick the two starts. I picked June 22 and April 20 as the worst ERA games but the team was definitely still in it in every game he's pitched (and we won one of those), others could have been picked instead if you preferred to lower hits or something. Now, avoiding clunkers is certainly good and important, but I think most would say Burnes is a stud, and Grayson has been pretty comparable in 13 of 15 starts.

[BaltBird 24]

If we were on a 10 game win streak and Povich hadnt blown up today I think its fair to question the Os pitching depth and development. This discussion came to a head today in this thread but it wasn't solely a reaction to Povich blowing up. I have no idea what to think of Povich. He will get a long look and plenty of starts between '24 and '25.

2019 and 2020 could go down as two of the best draft classes in history, but we're paying for largely ignoring pitching in those early Elias drafts.

He did try to remedy that with the Bundy trade and Jorge Lopez trade.