44 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Its not just the K rate with Jackson. It also the groundball rate. The K rate is shocking but the ground ball rate was has always been a bit higher than ideal. Im really not sure why they arent sending him back down and getting to work on mechanical and approach changes. It feels inevitable that it'll have to happen.

[Slidemaster]

It might be a bit of a stretch, but I wonder if Holliday is resistant to making changes to his approach due to his pedigree and success.
Is it possible they promoted him suspecting he would struggle, and then hoped his first taste of failure would make him more willing to make adjustments?

That's probably far fetched, but the thought occurred to me.

[jamesdean]

I did some fact checking, going back to the early part of 1982 to see exactly what Cal (his rookie year) was doing at the plate.  It was bad.  Real bad. On May 1st, he had bottomed out at .117 and was playing every day for the most part.  May 1st is next Wednesday, so I'll be curious to see what Holliday is hitting on that date.  

[Nigel Tufnel]

I did some fact checking, going back to the early part of 1982 to see exactly what Cal was doing at the plate.  It was bad.  Real bad. On May 1st, he had bottomed out at .117 and was playing every day for the most part.  May 1st is next Wednesday, so I'll be curious to see what Holliday is hitting on that date.  

 

And didn't Cal go like 3 for 5 on opening day?  So from game 2 to May 1, he was even worse than .117.

 

Just last year, Gunnar didn't get above .200 to stay until May 30.  Markakis was hitting .198 on May 9 of his rookie year.  Rich Dauer was hitting .080 on June 4, 1977, after hitting .103 in his September 1976 call-up.

[makoman]

It was a different world, but Cal’s 9 Ks in 62 PAs isn’t even close to Holliday’s 18 in 36. It’s an extreme level of futility so far.

[jamesdean]

It was a different world, but Cal’s 9 Ks in 62 PAs isn’t even close to Holliday’s 18 in 36. It’s an extreme level of futility so far.

I wouldn't compare K's of any era to right now.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

It was a different world, but Cal’s 9 Ks in 62 PAs isn’t even close to Holliday’s 18 in 36. It’s an extreme level of futility so far.

Yup and again the most shocking aspect of Jackson's struggles for me is his lack of contact. This isnt a kid who had a profile of striking out this much. Even at such a young age and even in such a SSS

[Slidemaster]

I did some fact checking, going back to the early part of 1982 to see exactly what Cal (his rookie year) was doing at the plate. It was bad. Real bad. On May 1st, he had bottomed out at .117 and was playing every day for the most part. May 1st is next Wednesday, so I'll be curious to see what Holliday is hitting on that date.

Hitting .117 would be a massive improvement for Holliday. If he doubled his batting average right now, he would be hitting .118.

He is quite literally having the worst rookie season of anyone in the majors, and it's not even close. He's lucky to even put the bat on the ball. Fouling one off feels like progress.

I don't think this is indicative of who he's eventually going to be, but the fact of the matter is that he needs to be sent down to remember how to hit. Right now he's taking great pitches to hit, swinging at bad ones, and pitchers are just toying with him.

[JoyinMudville]

I've been told that if they send him down, it will wreck his confidence. And we can't have that.

 

If that's the case then he doesn't have the mental makeup for professional ball.

 

We know that that is not true but if management feels like it will help him to take what he's experienced up here back down to triple A and have a reset they should do it. And it is up to management to couch such a decision in positive terms.  

 

We did it with Rodriguez last year and look at the pitcher who returned for the 2nd half.

 

Would letting him spend the next three weeks feasting on triple A pitching be the worst thing we could do?

 

I would keep him up here but play him less and pinch hit for him more often - we have a bench for a reason.

[JoyinMudville]

And didn't Cal go like 3 for 5 on opening day?  So from game 2 to May 1, he was even worse than .117.

 

Just last year, Gunnar didn't get above .200 to stay until May 30.  Markakis was hitting .198 on May 9 of his rookie year.  Rich Dauer was hitting .080 on June 4, 1977, after hitting .103 in his September 1976 call-up.

 

There were people who wanted to send Gunnar down around this time last year and I brought up Cal's rookie year. The two tracked pretty closely.

 

I'll say this, if there's anything that's going to help Holiday get on the right track it will be a weekend at home facing the A's

[russsnyder]

It might be a bit of a stretch, but I wonder if Holliday is resistant to making changes to his approach due to his pedigree and success.
Is it possible they promoted him suspecting he would struggle, and then hoped his first taste of failure would make him more willing to make adjustments?

That's probably far fetched, but the thought occurred to me.

I wouldn't dismiss this totally out of hand. However, I think the the issue right now is the bright spotlight. He's never experienced this type of failure in his life and the top prospect in the game has been totally overmatched at the plate.

While he may have access to the outstanding major league hitting coaches, the spotlight remains during the struggle. The other thing I'll say is that most struggling athletes will revert to old or bad habits in times of stress. That bad muscle memory has a way of creeping back in as a means of comfort. He needs to break out of this soon, or he needs to go down to iron things out and to get some pressure taken off of him.

[Mackus]

1 hit, 0 BB, 10 K in 19 PA in his first 5 games (105 OPS)

1 hit, 2 BB, 8 K in 17 PA in his next 5 games (243 OPS)

 

Clear progress!  Improving his average, slugging, and on-base and K-rate. By the third week of June he's gonna be a monster!

[DuffMan]

1 hit, 0 BB, 10 K in 19 PA in his first 5 games (105 OPS)

1 hit, 2 BB, 8 K in 17 PA in his next 5 games (243 OPS)

 

Clear progress!  Improving his average, slugging, and on-base and K-rate. By the third week of June he's gonna be a monster!

[mweb08]

I would have sent him down before the Angels series and nothing has happened since to change that view.

Get him to work on some things with the Tides, let him experience success again in a lower pressure and easier environment, and gain that extra year of service time back.

[Slidemaster]

There is an adjustment period that is expected when someone gets called up, but it rarely looks like this has looked. A 60% strikeout rate is not acceptable. A batting average under .100 and an OPS not much higher is not acceptable. What contact he is making is weak, and there have been no real indicators of improvement or growth. This is an untenable situation, and if he doesn't start hitting by the start of May they would be irresponsible to keep him up here.

For those of you who suggest that he needs to be up here to work through it, I would argue that right now he's not working through anything, but just trying to survive. It's very difficult for a human being to learn when they are just doing their very best not to drown. Let him go back down, get his head on straight, and come back and try again.

This looks almost like the hitting version of when Roy Halladay was brought up the first time. He was so bad they had to send them all the way back to the lowest levels of the minor leagues, and when he came back he was a different player.

[BSLChrisStoner]

It's been 10 games, and 34 ab's. 

 

I think all that can be said, is that it was an awful 10 games and 34 ab's. 

 

Henderson last April was 14 of 71 (.197 baa), with 27 k's. 

 

There were a lot of people in the game threads saying he was overmatched, never going to have a high ceiling, needed more time, etc. 

 

 

Right now Holliday is basically batting 9th, and the team is winning without him contributing. 
Talent rises, and I expect he settles in. 

I'd still rather him take his lumps now, and hope to see month-to-month progression vs. sending him back to murder the International League.

 

That said, if there are issues of confidence, or mechanical tweaks they think will be better addressed at Norfolk... or he continues to struggle to this degree... then sure, I can get on-board with sending him back.

[Mackus]

I think people are rightfully noting that its a very small sample while also rightfully noting that he hasn't just been terrible like a lot of other young players but he's produced basically zero.  You'd expect more output from a rookie pitcher back before they eliminated the DH.  He can struggle and play (very) badly for a long time, but we're getting close to the max they can let him be completely incapable of doing anything at the plate.  I'd give him the A's series to show some more signs of life.  Two games vs RHP, if he is 1/9 with 5 K, then I demote him before the Yankees series and give him at least 3 more weeks in Norfolk.

[85Knight]

I think people are rightfully noting that its a very small sample while also rightfully noting that he hasn't just been terrible like a lot of other young players but he's produced basically zero. You'd expect more output from a rookie pitcher back before they eliminated the DH. He can struggle and play (very) badly for a long time, but we're getting close to the max they can let him be completely incapable of doing anything at the plate. I'd give him the A's series to show some more signs of life. Two games vs RHP, if he is 1/9 with 5 K, then I demote him before the Yankees series and give him at least 3 more weeks in Norfolk.

All of that is true and I'm sure they're on top of this. His struggles look beyond normal rookie stuff and he has to show some signs of life or it's time to pull the plug. In their defense all the so called experts said he was ready and were shocked he was ever sent down. I think almost everyone is surprised he's been this bad.

[Mackus]

Daniel Cabrera was 0/26 with 2 BB, a HBP, and 24 K in 32 career PA.  So Holliday isn't the worst hitter we've seen!

[mweb08]

I think people are rightfully noting that its a very small sample while also rightfully noting that he hasn't just been terrible like a lot of other young players but he's produced basically zero. You'd expect more output from a rookie pitcher back before they eliminated the DH. He can struggle and play (very) badly for a long time, but we're getting close to the max they can let him be completely incapable of doing anything at the plate. I'd give him the A's series to show some more signs of life. Two games vs RHP, if he is 1/9 with 5 K, then I demote him before the Yankees series and give him at least 3 more weeks in Norfolk.

Good post even though we differ in how much run we'd give him.

People can keep talking about how these other people struggled to start their careers, but this is on a whole different level. It's not just struggling, it's complete ineptitude as he's simply being overmatched to date. He's taking hittable pitches, sometimes for strike 3, he's getting blown away by average ish fastballs, and he's not really getting particularly unfortunate results when he does actually put the ball in play.