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FanGraphs: Occam's Razor and Jackson Holliday's Demotion


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#41 dude

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 02:18 PM

I expect a 20 year old Jackson Holliday to OPS between .760 and .820. 17-22 home runs. I also think that could be low. Corbin Carroll destroyed baseball last year in his first full season Gunnar did very well too after he woke up.

 

Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll were both 2019 draftees with 3 MiL season** and 22 at time of debut.

 

Putting them on the same timeline, Jackson would debut in September of '25.  I'm bat-shit crazy for suggesting Sept '24 but that's still a full year ahead of those other guys.  

 

Bobby Witt Jr is probably the better performance comp, but you're still a year ahead of his timeline.  My expectation would be a soft version of Bobby Witt's 2022 season.  That would be the center of my 1SP expectation.  He could certainly do better (or worse), but you have to play him to find out and that comes with very predictable (the only ones that are certain) consequences.

 

**yes, one of those was the COVID season, but still a year of developmental work and physical maturity



#42 Slidemaster

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 02:25 PM

Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll were both 2019 draftees with 3 MiL season** and 22 at time of debut.

Putting them on the same timeline, Jackson would debut in September of '25. I'm bat-shit crazy for suggesting Sept '24 but that's still a full year ahead of those other guys.

Bobby Witt Jr is probably the better performance comp, but you're still a year ahead of his timeline. My expectation would be a soft version of Bobby Witt's 2022 season. That would be the center of my 1SP expectation. He could certainly do better (or worse), but you have to play him to find out and that comes with very predictable (the only ones that are certain) consequences.

**yes, one of those was the COVID season, but still a year of developmental work and physical maturity

I dunno man. I trust the analysts on this one because they're paid to know more than me. Not every player is created equal. Age and levels of advancement are different from person to person. If they all think he's ready, and they do, there's got to be a reason. He certainly looked ready in the spring. He certainly looks ready mashing in AAA. At some point you just gotta trust it will translate.

I fully believe he will contribute meaningfully this year and I fully believe he's a better player right now than Westburg and Urias. Every game counts. Play to win.

#43 dude

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 03:01 PM

I trust the analysts on this one because they're paid to know more than me. 

 

You think people like Ben Clemens fall into the analyst category? (I ask that because this is a thread about his article)



#44 Slidemaster

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 03:04 PM

You think people like Ben Clemens fall into the analyst category? (I ask that because this is a thread about his article)


No. He's not who I'm referring to per se. Let me turn this around. Who have you seen who's opinion you trust has said "nah, he's not ready. Maybe next year."

#45 dude

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 03:53 PM

No. He's not who I'm referring to per se. Let me turn this around. Who have you seen who's opinion you trust has said "nah, he's not ready. Maybe next year."

 

Honestly, I haven't seen an opinion that was based on anything but an opinion. 

 

He hasn't achieved performance over time (because the time hasn't happened yet)...so what can anyone be looking at?  How he looks in the shower? The clickety-clack of his cleats as he enters the training room?  His maturity in an interview? What does anyone have to make an assessment?  The only thing people can say is "4 levels in one year" and "consensus #1 prospect" those are facts today, but neither of them specifically carry the weight of defining whether he's "ready" or not.

 

Elias made a statement back at the winter meetings that everyone has repeated over and over and over.  That statement didn't have any new information about it....RichardZ pointed out "why would he say it if he didn't think it?" ...and then Jackson had a good spring (the only new data point) and Elias sent him down.

 

I think using Gunnar to replace Mullins at the top of the lineup is intentional in terms of setting up Holliday sooner than later because I'd guess they want Holliday to bat leadoff and they don't want Mullins to establish himself there and have a 20-year old with no time push him back.  There's a number of things there.  Not letting Westburg establish himself at 2B and setting him up for the UT role, keeping Urias to play 3B with Mayo at 3B (not 1B) in AAA and not bouncing Henderson around. 

 

All of that suggests their plan. 



#46 Slidemaster

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 04:02 PM

Honestly, I haven't seen an opinion that was based on anything but an opinion.

He hasn't achieved performance over time (because the time hasn't happened yet)...so what can anyone be looking at? How he looks in the shower? The clickety-clack of his cleats as he enters the training room? His maturity in an interview? What does anyone have to make an assessment? The only thing people can say is "4 levels in one year" and "consensus #1 prospect" those are facts today, but neither of them specifically carry the weight of defining whether he's "ready" or not.

Elias made a statement back at the winter meetings that everyone has repeated over and over and over. That statement didn't have any new information about it....RichardZ pointed out "why would he say it if he didn't think it?" ...and then Jackson had a good spring (the only new data point) and Elias sent him down.

I think using Gunnar to replace Mullins at the top of the lineup is intentional in terms of setting up Holliday sooner than later because I'd guess they want Holliday to bat leadoff and they don't want Mullins to establish himself there and have a 20-year old with no time push him back. There's a number of things there. Not letting Westburg establish himself at 2B and setting him up for the UT role, keeping Urias to play 3B with Mayo at 3B (not 1B) in AAA and not bouncing Henderson around.

All of that suggests their plan.

I mean, you're being a little intentionally asinine here.

The people who have the opinion that he's ready for major league baseball have that opinion based upon what they see when they watch him play. They aren't deciding this arbitrarily. You believe that you can't draw any conclusion about him because he hasn't played baseball long enough. I guess that's fine. Sometimes I feel like you don't need that large of a sample size to know that someone's going to be good.

I'm not going to argue anymore about JH with you, because it's pretty obvious you don't think that highly of him and are pushing back pretty hard against the idea that he might be able to contribute this year. I'm not really sure why, but that's an opinion you have the right to have. Do you feel the same way about Paul Skenes? He's had like 6 minutes in professional baseball and is already being looked at as a likely midseason call up. Just curious.

Also, for the record, I think he probably begins batting 7th or 8th, and eventually moves up to be the number two hitter. I don't think they put him leadoff.

#47 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 04:38 PM

Has anybody seen some pundit write, after ST, that they thought Holliday was not ready to be up? I can't recall a single opinion saying that. Some seem to buy into the extra year so keep him down for a couple of weeks. But I don't think I have seen anybody say he's not ready.



#48 dude

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 04:38 PM

I'm not going to argue anymore about JH with you, because it's pretty obvious you don't think that highly of him and are pushing back pretty hard against the idea that he might be able to contribute this year. I'm not really sure why, but that's an opinion you have the right to have.

 

Right...I have him part of the next 6+ years (I prefer SS, but whatever) and want to maximize the opportunity for him to win the RoY, get PPI and play in Baltimore including a faster promotion than any HS draftee but because I haven't tripped over myself trying to get on the hype train, I don't like the guy.  <<shrug>>

 

For the record, he can't justify "rebuilding".  Win before, with and after him.  He's here now so build the Win Now, Win Later plan.

 

Do you feel the same way about Paul Skenes? He's had like 6 minutes in professional baseball and is already being looked at as a likely midseason call up. Just curious.

 

Yeah, absolutely.  WAY more adamant about the timelines/innings for pitchers.  Absolute lunacy to rush a pitcher.  Has nothing to do with "stuff" (I mean stuff is important) and everything to do with loading innings on the human body correctly.  TJS is a near likely outcome for every pitcher and I want to load the stress before I lose 2 years of service to surgery and recovery.



#49 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 04:51 PM

Right...I have him part of the next 6+ years (I prefer SS, but whatever) and want to maximize the opportunity for him to win the RoY, get PPI and play in Baltimore including a faster promotion than any HS draftee but because I haven't tripped over myself trying to get on the hype train, I don't like the guy.  <<shrug>>

 

For the record, he can't justify "rebuilding".  Win before, with and after him.  He's here now so build the Win Now, Win Later plan.

 

 

Yeah, absolutely.  WAY more adamant about the timelines/innings for pitchers.  Absolute lunacy to rush a pitcher.  Has nothing to do with "stuff" (I mean stuff is important) and everything to do with loading innings on the human body correctly.  TJS is a near likely outcome for every pitcher and I want to load the stress before I lose 2 years of service to surgery and recovery.

Others would say that every pitcher is one pitch away from TJ so the sooner you get them up the better The more pitches they throw in the minors the fewer they have left in their tank before the inevitable.

 

The only reason every pitcher in baseball doesn't have TJ is some just age out before they reach their magic pitch number.....lol



#50 dude

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 04:59 PM

Others would say that every pitcher is one pitch away from TJ so the sooner you get them up the better The more pitches they throw in the minors the fewer they have left in their tank before the inevitable.

 

I suggest you not listen to those people, but do what you want.



#51 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 06:50 PM

I suggest you not listen to those people, but do what you want.

Perhaps but I'd rather listen to them than you. 

 

You set yourself up for that one....lol



#52 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 07:08 PM

The other thing of note is even if Holliday broke with the MLB team I dont think he wouldve played vs LHP. Weve faced 4 now in 8 games. Or is it only 3?? Either way a large %. Also more days off here in Sept. Every day we either have an off day or face a lefty is a day closer we get to calling him up where he likely would not have started.

#53 hallas

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 09:17 PM

Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll were both 2019 draftees with 3 MiL season** and 22 at time of debut.

Putting them on the same timeline, Jackson would debut in September of '25. I'm bat-shit crazy for suggesting Sept '24 but that's still a full year ahead of those other guys.

Bobby Witt Jr is probably the better performance comp, but you're still a year ahead of his timeline. My expectation would be a soft version of Bobby Witt's 2022 season. That would be the center of my 1SP expectation. He could certainly do better (or worse), but you have to play him to find out and that comes with very predictable (the only ones that are certain) consequences.

**yes, one of those was the COVID season, but still a year of developmental work and physical maturity

I think Wander Franco is a good comp assuming JH doesn't start dating middle schoolers. Came up at 20, 129 wRC+ and on 2.4 WAR in 70 games.

I think you have to put more stock in his prospect ranking and scouting evaluation. As a general rule people with this kind of hype do pretty well, and if they receive the kind of evaluation he's getting at 20 then they've got a decent shot at building a HOF resume. You go back a bit further with prospects that received this kind of hype at Holliday's age and its people like Machado and Bryce and Trout. You can look at Profar as a miss, as he was a #1 overall and came up at a similar age, but he got wrecked by injuries.

#54 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 10:19 PM

I think Wander Franco is a good comp assuming JH doesn't start dating middle schoolers. Came up at 20, 129 wRC+ and on 2.4 WAR in 70 games.

I think you have to put more stock in his prospect ranking and scouting evaluation. As a general rule people with this kind of hype do pretty well, and if they receive the kind of evaluation he's getting at 20 then they've got a decent shot at building a HOF resume. You go back a bit further with prospects that received this kind of hype at Holliday's age and its people like Machado and Bryce and Trout. You can look at Profar as a miss, as he was a #1 overall and came up at a similar age, but he got wrecked by injuries.

Yup. But he has subtly and at times not so subtly tried to shade Holliday. He wants to mimimize him as much as he can because he was the #1 pick and the result of tanking. He doesnt want Holliday to ever be a stud. He wants him to just be solid. Then he can say Holliday is good but nothing unique. He isnt anything special rebuilding gets you......blah blah blah. As if any Os fan outside of himself cares about rebuilding anymore. Everyone has moved on. He still lives in 2019

#55 hallas

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Posted 06 April 2024 - 11:59 PM

Yup. But he has subtly and at times not so subtly tried to shade Holliday. He wants to mimimize him as much as he can because he was the #1 pick and the result of tanking. He doesnt want Holliday to ever be a stud. He wants him to just be solid. Then he can say Holliday is good but nothing unique. He isnt anything special rebuilding gets you......blah blah blah. As if any Os fan outside of himself cares about rebuilding anymore. Everyone has moved on. He still lives in 2019


Oh.... I don't post that much in the Orioles sub so I might be missing some undertones from previous posts.

#56 dude

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Posted 07 April 2024 - 12:19 AM

Oh.... I don't post that much in the Orioles sub so I might be missing some undertones from previous posts.

 

Wile E is just making stuff up.  Nothing he said there is real. He wants that narrative to be true because he thinks it gets him some angle.  It doesn't.



#57 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 07 April 2024 - 01:08 AM


Wile E is just making stuff up. Nothing he said there is real. He wants that narrative to be true because he thinks it gets him some angle. It doesn't.

Im not the only one who has debated your Holliday takes. IMO you've absolutely thrown some shade at him and I believe I know why you do it. You dont want Holliday to be a special talent so no one would to be able to say we got this MVP or potentially even HOF caliber talent because we "tanked" to get the #1 pick. Thats always been your rallying cry. Again, and I genuinely always mean this when I say it, if someone else here believes Im wrong then I welcome them to tell me Im wrong. If they dont believe you have an agenda or have thrown some shade at Holliday then tell me. There are plenty of respectable posters who interact with you and have followed your posts here who will tell me if Im making things up

#58 dude

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Posted 08 April 2024 - 12:25 AM

I think Wander Franco is a good comp assuming JH doesn't start dating middle schoolers. Came up at 20, 129 wRC+ and on 2.4 WAR in 70 games.

 

...and Franco and Witt and JRod all gave the team consideration for pushing them to the majors.  ...and Wander Franco was disappointing in his second season.  Whatever difference there is between play A and Holliday AT THIS STAGE is likely modest, if any.  That doesn't speak to what he'll eventually be.

 

I think you have to put more stock in his prospect ranking and scouting evaluation. As a general rule people with this kind of hype do pretty well, and if they receive the kind of evaluation he's getting at 20 then they've got a decent shot at building a HOF resume. You go back a bit further with prospects that received this kind of hype at Holliday's age and its people like Machado and Bryce and Trout. You can look at Profar as a miss, as he was a #1 overall and came up at a similar age, but he got wrecked by injuries.

 

Ther's a lot of Monday morning QBing going on here.  Holliday wasn't considered a consensus #1 pick.  Last year he had a crazy walk total (135) and apparently (I don't know the numbers) the exit velocities were good so you have a young guy doing well.  ...I have zero issues with projection, but what level was he doing something crazy?  A-ball doesn't really count.  They let him move through quickly.  Cool.  AA was .928 OPS which again is good  (only 162 ABs) and he gets a cup-of-coffee (.796) with Norfolk  to get him into the Playoffs?

 

Again, I'm ok with the projection, but most all of the hype is a couple months at AA.  Are you seriously making a Trout comp?  Trout has been one of the best plyers in the history of MLB.  Maybe we should slow that roll some?



#59 dude

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Posted 08 April 2024 - 12:32 AM

Im not the only one who has debated your Holliday takes. IMO you've absolutely thrown some shade at him and I believe I know why you do it. You dont want Holliday to be a special talent so no one would to be able to say we got this MVP or potentially even HOF caliber talent because we "tanked" to get the #1 pick. Thats always been your rallying cry. Again, and I genuinely always mean this when I say it, if someone else here believes Im wrong then I welcome them to tell me Im wrong. If they dont believe you have an agenda or have thrown some shade at Holliday then tell me. There are plenty of respectable posters who interact with you and have followed your posts here who will tell me if Im making things up

 

I have to be gone for a week, but later I want to give you a chance build your case.  Take the week to order your Acme rockets and whatever else you think you need.

 

I'm going to ask you to defend the statement you've (several times now) postured that I want Holliday to not succeed very much because you think it undermines my position on rebuilding.  Questions will look something like...

 

1) Is Jackson Holliday required to win.

2) Does Jackson Holliday (assume any level of performance) justify intentionally losing.

3) When Jackson Holliday leaves, do we have to intentionally lose again to get the next ''Jackson Holiday"?

 

Back later.



#60 hallas

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Posted 08 April 2024 - 01:55 AM

...and Franco and Witt and JRod all gave the team consideration for pushing them to the majors. ...and Wander Franco was disappointing in his second season. Whatever difference there is between play A and Holliday AT THIS STAGE is likely modest, if any. That doesn't speak to what he'll eventually be.


Ther's a lot of Monday morning QBing going on here. Holliday wasn't considered a consensus #1 pick. Last year he had a crazy walk total (135) and apparently (I don't know the numbers) the exit velocities were good so you have a young guy doing well. ...I have zero issues with projection, but what level was he doing something crazy? A-ball doesn't really count. They let him move through quickly. Cool. AA was .928 OPS which again is good (only 162 ABs) and he gets a cup-of-coffee (.796) with Norfolk to get him into the Playoffs?

Again, I'm ok with the projection, but most all of the hype is a couple months at AA. Are you seriously making a Trout comp? Trout has been one of the best plyers in the history of MLB. Maybe we should slow that roll some?

Why wouldn't I make the comp with every prospect that's been a top-1 or top-2 prospect and hitting the majors at age 20 or under, including Trout? That's the ceiling for prospects of this caliber, at his age. Is he likely to hit that ceiling? Of course not. But his career to date fits the profile of someone who might. And it's not like trout is the only one that had a 5+ WAR rookie campaign. Machado and Harper both did as well. Plus, some of the guys I listed had worse minor league stats than Holliday at the same age. Machado was called up as a 19 year old in AA, and he had a sub-.800 OPS at the time.

Franco's 2nd year he got injured and didn't play a full season but was on pace for 4+ WAR. His 3rd year he put up over 4 WAR in only 3/4 of a season before the scandal hit. These things never account for injury but he's lived up to his hype as a player when he's been on the field (albeit not as a human being.)

His draft position is irrelevant and prospect valuations are far more predictive of future production than draft status at this stage. And he's a unanimous #1 prospect with multiple 70 overall FV grades. At his age those kinds of prospects are the kinds you start early HOF watches on.

You're right that the error bars are decently large when trying to project major league performance based on scouting reports and limited minor league data. He might be Witt Jr. And take a year to get acclimated. He might be Yoan Moncada and never live up to the hype. He might be Jurickson Profar. Or he might be Machado/Harper/Trout. You have big error bars with any prospect but you definitely don't have HOF level upside with any prospect.
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