92 replies to this topic

[dude]

My answer is always the same.  Build your roster in 3-5 year windows with the guys that want to be here.

 

I'm for a mix in the balance of guys who are here and guys that are coming.   You get to the roster you want to compete with and it's more than extending everyone or desperately waiting for the next prospect.

 

I'd extend guys like Hays (I know...) and Mullins (and others)

 

...but trade guys like Santander and Mountcastle to make way for Kjerstad and Mayo (would offer the younger guys extensions).

 

These are the types of decisions that (outside of automatic A ownership change) take you to the "A" offseason.

 

Burnes is a great add.  Hope he's the WS MVP. 

Kimbrel is a great add as a bridge back to Bautista.

 

Still work to do. Or not.  

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I said this elsewhere, but just because the Orioles' approach may change, doesn't mean Boras approach will change.

 

You have 4 Boras clients on your initial list.

 

Burnes.  He's going to want to break the pitching contract record.  Cole signed for 324M (10 years).  Yammamoto took 2 more years (12 years) to get the Dodgers to bite at 325M.  So start with Burnes at 330M.  Boras isn't giving you a number to negotiate off of.  You give him a number, THEN you start negotiating up because if he thinks you'll do 10/330, then he counters with 12/400.  If you think that's unreasonable...who said being reasonable has anything to do with this.

 

You have the same issue with Holliday and Henderson.  Boras is excited about the public pressure the Orioles have to put Jackson on the opening day roster.  That makes him a FA entering his age 26 season.  That's a 15 year contract and you can play the Ohtani-games with deferrals and get to 705M.  That seems absurd, but what makes anyone believe he's not trying to figure out how to be more absurd.  You have to do something stupid.  

 

Henderson is the same thing.  He's 5 years from FA.  Be an All-Star / MVP each year and be a FA entering your age 28 season.  (Gunnar has a June birthday, so he's one of those guys that will appear younger on BBREF that a guy with a July birthday)

 

GRod is 24 this season and has less than a year of service so he's already hitting FA entering his age 30 season. You have to do something like 10 years with opt outs but that's still all risk, no reward for the Team.

 

If you think any of these guys are different, you'd need to tell me why you think they are different.  You wanting them to be different isn't evidence. 

 

I allow myself to imagine the scenario where it is different without being absurdly dumb (you can tell me you'll offer something absurdly dumb, ok, but nobody is doing that).  May if you're extending the players that will extend and building something where these guys value a Championship opportunity (or something like that) and they maybe feel like they are getting left behind on some of the guaranteed money train, then maybe you get something like a year into FA that forces the run in Baltimore versus potentially getting traded out before FA....I build them, but they would still be the lowest probability.

Which I acknowledged in my post. The whole point of starting this thread is that each of us has guys we would like to extend more so than others. But at the end of the day I do not think that core list of 6 guys are all extendable EVEN is you ignore the Boras aspect. Others see it differently just like the debate on trade/no trade for Adley. All a matter of perspective.

[dude]

The whole point of starting this thread is that each of us has guys we would like to extend more so than others. 

 

Everyone (literally everyone) seems to have an "eaches" mentality about almost every topic.  It's not about 26+ individual players, it's about how those 26 payers fit into whatever it is you want to do.  We don't know everything, things will change, but you need a plan because doing this as if [[every year is an individual event, as if you actually know anything coming out of Spring Training, as if the Performance Formula isn't real, as if agents don't matter]], will lead you down the wrong path to winning.

 

2024 may be committed.  Assume it is for purposes of this today....

 

CF Mullins (extend)

C  Rutschman (extend)

3B Henderson (5 years of control)

1B Mountcastle (trade) ...Mayo (extend)

DH O'Hearn (1 year of control)....Basallo

LF  Hays (extend...I know)

RF Santander (trade)... Kjerstad 

2B Westburg

SS Mateo ....Holliday (6 years of control)

[dude]

I've been an advocate of extending Means.  I expect him to be good this year (although his 2024 salary agreement gives me some pause) and if the Orioles don't want to extend him, the market for him will be silly, but reasonable.  He won't be looking for Snell or Montgomery $$.  Getting something like 4/65-5/90 would seem ballpark (Mets, Phillies, ...).

 

My guess is you can buy out some of that if you're the Orioles because he may be willing to give a little more back to the Orioles given the last 2+ years.  So maybe you get something like a 2/30 done with 12.5M in each of the next 2 years and a 5M b/o out a 3/45 team option he can reject the b/o and become a FA.

 

...but you have to do something like that now while there's at least some uncertainty in 2024 performance.  If he's back to John Means, you may get something of a discount in FA, but less so than today.

 

Bumping this related to the other thread.

[mikezpen]

Means has had arm trouble his entire career off and on. No way extend. Hays just doesn't hit enough and is too prone to slumps-as is Mountcastle. 

 

O's could use a RIGHT-HANDED HITTING left fielder who can field and hit.

[Mackus]

O's could use a RIGHT-HANDED HITTING left fielder who can field and hit.

Umm....

[BaltBird 24]

Umm....

Who's going to tell him?

[mikezpen]

I'd love for them to extend Henderson and Rutschman soon. But if it's down to just 1 guy we can extend, I'd say Rutschman assuming his bat holds up.

[mikezpen]

Everybody wants the team to sign core guys Rutschman, Henderson, Holiday and maybe Burnes. I'd like the first three, myself. But I think many here doubt if they'll re-sign w/Baltimore, that it may be too late. Perhaps so.

 

What, then, would a Plan B look like? Here's one idea. Try to sign Rutschman anyway. He's sorta the "face of the franchise" anyway. They should be able to sign one of these top people. For sure under this option, you must sign "second tier guys" like Santander. Then, trade the top guys a year before free agency to reap the best haul in prospects. You should get some good ones for the likes of Gunnar Henderson.

 

This requires Elias to pin down these people's plans ASAP so he knows how to proceed, A decision on Santander must come soon as this is his contract year.

 

If they can't hang on to their top players, I think this is the best way to keep the Orioles competitive, long term.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'm sure the discussions have changed / will change with the change in ownership. 

 

Would expect we see the new ownership make the extensions a priority. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I expect at least one extension before the AS break. Probably Rutsch but could be someone else. Not sure who Mayo's agent is but Id love to sign him longterm early

[Mackus]

I think we've got zero chance at extending Rutschman, Henderson or Holliday, though I'd love to see something get done. Think any of the others could be in play. Would be excited to see commitments to anyone. I can see justification for an extension with almost any of the regular players or upcoming prospects other than Mountcastle, O'Hearn and Hays.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think we've got zero chance at extending Rutschman, Henderson or Holliday, though I'd love to see something get done. Think any of the others could be in play. Would be excited to see commitments to anyone. I can see justification for an extension with almost any of the regular players or upcoming prospects other than Mountcastle, O'Hearn and Hays.

 

Why would you say zero chance? 

 

The new ownership team has 3 billionaires.   

New sports owners typically like throwing their money around and spending on their new toy. 

 

Now they can make any offer they want, and the players might still covet going to the open market, and being somewhere else.... but if Elias tells the ownership he wants player x, I would expect the players to receive significant offers that they have to at-least consider. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Not sure why youre so certain we've missed the boat on Adley.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Adley's a tough one, because he's a catcher who's set to hit free agency at 30.  How many extra years is he going to want?  I'm not sure that he'd see getting 3 extra years and hitting free agency at 33 as that great of a deal, so maybe 6 or 7?  Not sure you want to guarantee $30+ million a year to a 36 year old catcher.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Adley's a tough one, because he's a catcher who's set to hit free agency at 30.  How many extra years is he going to want?  Maybe 6 or 7?  Not sure you want to guarantee $30+ million a year to a 36 year old catcher.

We should pay a premium on his Arb years to get 3 or 4 FA years vs having to give him 6 or 7 FA years. 

[Mackus]

Why would you say zero chance? 

 

The new ownership team has 3 billionaires.   

New sports owners typically like throwing their money around and spending on their new toy. 

 

Now they can make any offer they want, and the players might still covet going to the open market, and being somewhere else.... but if Elias tells the ownership he wants player x, I would expect the players to receive significant offers that they have to at-least consider. 

 

I don't think any of them would sign the type of contract Elias, even under new ownership, will offer. Not because Elias is cheap or anything, just that its gonna require a huge offer.

 

I think Henderson says no to an enhanced Bobby Witt type deal and Holliday says no to an enhanced Jackson Chourio type deal.  They picked Boras for a reason, and it wasn't to sign pre-arb deals and delay hitting the open market. I don't see an overlap for a deal that both sides would say yes.

 

Nigel mentions why Adley won't extend.  I don't see agreeing to a 7-8 year deal rather than play 4 more years then hit the open market.  I don't see the Orioles offering him a 9-10 year deal with opt outs.

 

It's not impossible, but I'm sticking with rounding down to zero.  I think there is a better chance they win both of the next two World Series than signing any of those three.  Would be thrilled if they did it.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I don't think any of them would sign the type of contract Elias, even under new ownership, will offer. Not because Elias is cheap or anything, just that its gonna require a huge offer.

 

I think Henderson says no to an enhanced Bobby Witt type deal and Holliday says no to an enhanced Jackson Chourio type deal.  They picked Boras for a reason, and it wasn't to sign pre-arb deals and delay hitting the open market. I don't see an overlap for a deal that both sides would say yes.

 

Nigel mentions why Adley won't extend.  I don't see agreeing to a 7-8 year deal rather than play 4 more years then hit the open market.  I don't see the Orioles offering him a 9-10 year deal with opt outs.

 

It's not impossible, but I'm sticking with rounding down to zero.  I think there is a better chance they win both of the next two World Series than signing any of those three.  Would be thrilled if they did it.

 

 

I can see taking the under with each of them individually, but collectively I don't think the odds are near zero.

I expect the O's will sign one or more of them.
Will be interesting to watch. 

If they don't have a deal done with one of them by Xmas, I think that will be enough time to say I'm wrong. 

Basically the new ownership is going to come in, throw around some money and get a deal done (if the players are open to a deal); or it won't happen.

[weird-O]

I agree with Mackus. Unless the Boras guys really, really love the O's franchise, they're all probably heading to free agency.

 

Back to the OP, if the O's have to follow the blueprint of the Tampa Rays recycle game, they'll want to move those players with at least 2 years of team control. That's how you get your biggest return. 

[jamesdean]

I think the odds of long term deals being signed by both Adley and Gunnar are low.  I'll take Gunnar.