92 replies to this topic

[Nigel Tufnel]

I'll take Gunnar.  

 

Well, yeah, so would basically everyone else.  But Boras is Gunnar's agent, and not Adley's.

[Slidemaster]

I think we just enjoy Gunnar and Holliday while they're here.

[CantonJester]

Establish the precedent with Adley. Offer to buyout his arb years and tack on three years. Make him the highest paid catcher in the game. He's the cog to bring FA pitchers into Baltimore. If Adley has a tight-knit relationship with Gunnar, maybe he too would be amenable to an extension. Mayo, Cowser, Kjerstad, et al (or, the ones who aren't traded due to the logjam) will make their own choices, yes, but set the precedent so that you can control the narrative. 

 

The Tampa Bay Rays model is a false dilemma for the Orioles given their marketshare and the $$ now at their (assumed) disposal. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Even under the new ownership I don't see the O's swinging the money for more than 2 of these big stars. I doubt we get any of what I'll call the tier 1 guys.

 

Holliday

Henderson

Rutschman

Burnes

 

Then coming along shortly you have Cowser, Kjerstad, and Mayo.

 

Sure our payroll can go up a fair bit but we are not the Yankees.

[Mackus]

Offer to buyout his arb years and tack on three years. 

 

Why would he take a 3-year deal for anything less than an absurd price?  If you give him $120M for those 3 years, so like a 7/$160M deal, maybe he takes it. But zero chance he signs for $25M a year for those seasons (7/$115M).  $40M might be a low estimate for his 3 arb years anyways.  $7M, $13M, $20M feels pretty easily achievable.

[Mackus]

Sure our payroll can go up a fair bit but we are not the Yankees.

The first luxury tax threshold will be $241M in 2025. We're about $130M shy of that right now (adding in all the little extras that go beyond just player salary to get to the total luxury tax liability). The Yankees are another planet, but there is tons of room for the O's to spend like a 10th-15th sized payroll and not much justification that they can't support that with revenue.

[CantonJester]

Why would he take a 3-year deal for anything less than an absurd price?  If you give him $120M for those 3 years, so like a 7/$160M deal, maybe he takes it. But zero chance he signs for $25M a year for those seasons (7/$115M).  $40M might be a low estimate for his 3 arb years anyways.  $7M, $13M, $20M feels pretty easily achievable.

 

I'm not saying they should insult him. But yeah, you offer him a 7 year deal that makes him the highest paid catcher in MLB. As for why would he be motivated to do that? Because he wants to play for a winner and it'd be a litmus test as to whether or not he's bought in on the O's future. 

Start there, and make the others say no. Not saying they'll say yes, but make them say no. 

[Mackus]

I'm not saying they should insult him. But yeah, you offer him a 7 year deal that makes him the highest paid catcher in MLB. As for why would he be motivated to do that? Because he wants to play for a winner and it'd be a litmus test as to whether or not he's bought in on the O's future.

Start there, and make the others say no. Not saying they'll say yes, but make them say no.

Highest paid catcher isn't nearly enough. Realmuto is at like $24M. No way Adley signs for 3/$75M plus arbitration buyout. I think you'd have to get close to doubling that to get him to agree. A 3-year extension beyond his club control is probably the worst possible contract length for him and his career earning potential.

[CantonJester]

Highest paid catcher isn't nearly enough. Realmuto is at like $24M. No way Adley signs for 3/$75M plus arbitration buyout. I think you'd have to get close to doubling that to get him to agree. A 3-year extension beyond his club control is probably the worst possible contract length for him and his career earning potential.

 

I can appreciate what you're saying, but you're sorta changing the math here. 

 

Let me change it for you, too: I see Adley being one of the game's better first basemen in the second half of his career. Switch hitter with a good eye with power. 

[Slidemaster]

I can appreciate what you're saying, but you're sorta changing the math here.

Let me change it for you, too: I see Adley being one of the game's better first basemen in the second half of his career. Switch hitter with a good eye with power.

I think Adley is one of the few catchers who really sees a precipitous drop in value when he is put at first base. Possibly his most valuable traits is his rapport with pitchers as well as his defense, and that goes away the moment he takes off his catching gear.

[CantonJester]

I think Adley is one of the few catchers who really sees a precipitous drop in value when he is put at first base. Possibly his most valuable traits is his rapport with pitchers as well as his defense, and that goes away the moment he takes off his catching gear.

 

I mean, he's an elite catcher right now. I'm talking about 8 years from now. The greatest catcher of all time, Johnny Bench retired after his age 35 season, and only started 327 games behind the plate after the age of 30. 

[mikezpen]

Ohtani's taking a lot of his money long term so he doesn't blow out the team budget. A thought there?

[CantonJester]

Ohtani's taking a lot of his money long term so he doesn't blow out the team budget. A thought there?

 

Ohtani is a global icon (or at least one of the most popular athletes on both sides of the planet). He can afford to do that. If homegrown players start doing that, you'll probably see it snuffed out. 

[russsnyder]

I think Adley is one of the few catchers who really sees a precipitous drop in value when he is put at first base. Possibly his most valuable traits is his rapport with pitchers as well as his defense, and that goes away the moment he takes off his catching gear.

I think this is a really good point.

The wild card is that the rigors of catching for several years will likely sap some of his power before he converts to first base.

[Mackus]

I can appreciate what you're saying, but you're sorta changing the math here. 

 

Let me change it for you, too: I see Adley being one of the game's better first basemen in the second half of his career. Switch hitter with a good eye with power. 

 

What math am I changing? There is no chance he buys out 3 free agency years (Age 30, 31 and 32) unless you make the value for each of those years something absurd or you give him opt outs that basically make the years Adley-options rather than locked in for the O's (or both). You'll have to pay insanely big to get him to forego the one huge chance he'll have of hitting free agency while still in his prime.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I can appreciate what you're saying, but you're sorta changing the math here. 

 

Let me change it for you, too: I see Adley being one of the game's better first basemen in the second half of his career. Switch hitter with a good eye with power. 

I don't think you can say Adley is a guy with power when you are talking 1B. He can certainly hit 20 or so homers but that's no big feat for a guy at 1B. His value goes way down IMO when he's not catching.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

What math am I changing? There is no chance he buys out 3 free agency years (Age 30, 31 and 32) unless you make the value for each of those years something absurd or you give him opt outs that basically make the years Adley-options rather than locked in for the O's (or both). You'll have to pay insanely big to get him to forego the one huge chance he'll have of hitting free agency while still in his prime.

You pay him enough for his arb years he could give up 3 or 4 FA years. Its not that hard to believe. That said, paying him through his 35 yr old season is more realistic. I wouldnt go further than his 35 yr old season.

[Mackus]

You pay him enough for his arb years he could give up 3 or 4 FA years. Its not that hard to believe. That said, paying him through his 35 yr old season is more realistic. I wouldnt go further than his 35 yr old season.

What's the number then for 3 years? $40M for arb plus how much for each of those years? $25M making it a total 7/$115M, isn't close to getting it done, IMO. I think you'd need at least another $30M total and likely closer to $50M. A 7-year deal is the worst case duration for hm, so you'd pay through the nose if that's the length you (you being Canton Jester in this conversation) insist on it being.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Genuinely asking. Is his salary for '24 locked in at this point? Could you give him a huge chunk this year as part of an extension if its done before the season starts.

[Mackus]

Genuinely asking. Is his salary for '24 locked in at this point? Could you give him a huge chunk this year as part of an extension if its done before the season starts.

 

He's got a salary for this year but you can rewrite a contract at any time you want.  Could do it before or mid-season and give him a big signing bonus.  Upfronting some money certainly is better for him than the backloaded nature of matching his arbitration figures, but when you consider the deal it's still all the money you need to pay him above what he'd likely get through arbitration to get him to sign away exactly 3 FA years.