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Extending Players with the New Ownership


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#1 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 05:29 PM

Been a bit of discussion about how the new ownership is likely to make extending players a more possible plan given that overall payroll is likely to go up. So thought I'd start a topic specifically about this because I think while its possible I wonder to what extent. And more importantly just who do you try and extend.

 

Here's some obvious candidates:

 

Burnes

Henderson

Rutschman

Holliday

Grod

Bradish

Means

 

Then this doesn't even account for guys like Santander, Mullins, and the up and comers. 

 

Of course their agent plays into this discussion but even taking that aside it looks pretty clear to me that we have a fairly large number of guys that you could make a pitch for extending and I think its going to take some navigation to figure that out.

 

This is a good problem to have and one of the reasons I am a retired engineer and Elias gets the big bucks......lol.



#2 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 05:52 PM

I think the O's will spend like a mid-tier and above team going forward.

They'll make an offer to Burnes after the year I believe, and if the Summer / Fall is as fun as we think it might be; that might happen.
Of course he will likely want to test FA, and maybe he has somewhere he would like to be.

Henderson and Holiday should be current priorities 1 and 1a.

Given the cost of pitching, I'd be tempted to do something with Rodriguez... but you do have control there, and there is always the injury risk. Love Bradish, but he's a little bit older. You could offer him something I guess to buy out the first couple years of FA.

I think Adley will get done.

Means, Mullins... see how the year goes before thinking of any deals. (Can Means stay on the mound, is Mullins better than the last two years?)

Santander... I'd be surprised if this isn't his last year with the O's.

#3 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 06:22 PM

I mean the Rays and Brewers and Royals are extending their young guys. If they can, we can.

There is baseball, and occasionally there are other things of note

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#4 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 08:03 PM

I think the O's will spend like a mid-tier and above team going forward.

They'll make an offer to Burnes after the year I believe, and if the Summer / Fall is as fun as we think it might be; that might happen.
Of course he will likely want to test FA, and maybe he has somewhere he would like to be.

Henderson and Holiday should current priorities 1 and 1a.

Given the cost of pitching, I'd be tempted to do something with Rodriguez... but you do have control there, and there is always the injury risk. Love Bradish, but he's a little bit older. You could offer him something I guess to buy out the first couple years of FA.

I think Adley will get done.

Means, Mullins... see how the year goes before thinking of any deals. (Can Means stay on the mound, is Mullins better than the last two years?)

Santander... I'd be surprised if this isn't his last year with the O's.

Was thinking about a potential Santander extension earlier. More in favor of it than I ever thought Id be if it comes at a good price. Hes gonna end up a 1b/DH. His bat isnt special as a 1b/DH but hes a steady, balanced switch hitter in the middle of the lineup. I might be more inclined to extend him than any other player on the 40 man that has reached the arbitration level

#5 CantonJester

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 08:26 PM

Not a fan of extending a guy who plays a passable RF with minimal experience at 1B. There's way too much talent coming up to lockdown the DH slot longterm. 



#6 BaltBird 24

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 08:47 PM

Depending on how he rebounds from an injury plagued season in 2023, Ced is one guy I'm willing to talk extension with. Santander is a maybe. Hays I'm out on.

#7 RichardZ

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 08:48 PM

Was thinking about a potential Santander extension earlier. More in favor of it than I ever thought Id be if it comes at a good price. Hes gonna end up a 1b/DH. His bat isnt special as a 1b/DH but hes a steady, balanced switch hitter in the middle of the lineup. I might be more inclined to extend him than any other player on the 40 man that has reached the arbitration level

I don’t see the logic here. Kjerstad, Cowser, and Mayo are all potential RF replacements at minimum salary. Mayo, Kjerstad, and Basallo are potential 1B in the near future at minimum salary. Why do you want to commit 15M+ for multiple years, essentially blocking your top prospects ?

Let’s hope his age 29 season is one of his best, thank him for his service, and let someone else pay top dollar for his age 30+ seasons. I like Santander a lot but extending him feels like a mistake.

#8 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 08:50 PM

I think thats a fair enough take but I also need to see something this year from some of these younger guys at the big league level. If you are going to lose a middle of the order bat someone has to replace it. Or you have to lengthen your lineup. Even for this year I wish we had one more very reliable offensive player. We have Adley, Gunnar, and Santander who are all top of the order guys then IMO it could get dicey in a hurry. Sure maybe OHearn hits well enough again. Maybe Mounty can put together a full season like his 2nd half last year. Maybe Mullins finds better form again. Maybe Westburg takes another step. Potential is there for sure. Lets see a few of these young guys in particular step up and show they might be capable of being a 120+ OPS guy like Santander.

#9 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 08:58 PM

But getting back to who I consider extending I always figured Mullins would be tops. I think you just play it out with him. I think so much of his value is going to be tied to his defensive ability and how long he can remain an above avg range and field guy. And as you get older you consistently see sprint speeds and jump speeds continue to decline. Having a legit CF that can also give you avg to above avg offensive performance is huge but Im not sure Ced remains an avg offensive guy and I doubt the defense is or will remain good enough to carry an 85 or 90 OPS+ guy. Hays you dont even give a 2nd thought to extending. Hes a 2 WAR corner OFer in his prime. His 30s likely look real bad. Same with Mounty. 1b whos just a solid but flawed offensive player. Not extending any pitchers either that are this far away from FA.

#10 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 09:20 PM

I think the O's will spend like a mid-tier and above team going forward.

They'll make an offer to Burnes after the year I believe, and if the Summer / Fall is as fun as we think it might be; that might happen.
Of course he will likely want to test FA, and maybe he has somewhere he would like to be.

Henderson and Holiday should be current priorities 1 and 1a.

Given the cost of pitching, I'd be tempted to do something with Rodriguez... but you do have control there, and there is always the injury risk. Love Bradish, but he's a little bit older. You could offer him something I guess to buy out the first couple years of FA.

I think Adley will get done.

Means, Mullins... see how the year goes before thinking of any deals. (Can Means stay on the mound, is Mullins better than the last two years?)

Santander... I'd be surprised if this isn't his last year with the O's.

I concur but the issue I see is that its flat out too many guys to have long term contracts with. Even with a much expanded budget. I mean I can't see how they could do more than 2 and there are easily 4 or 5 who you could make a case for.



#11 Mackus

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 09:57 PM

Depending on how he rebounds from an injury plagued season in 2023, Ced is one guy I'm willing to talk extension with. Santander is a maybe. Hays I'm out on.

I'd do the Mullins contract now before he returns to his pre-injury form. Try to buy low. Of the guys that are 1-2 years from FA, he's the one I want around the longest.

Would talk to Means as well, similar but low thinking. More risk with him than Ced, though.

#12 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 10:25 PM

You think youre buying low but I just dont believe in Ced aging well. Too much reliance on his defense. Ill happily see him prove himself this year and pay more on an extension in season or next offseason vs giving him one now

#13 RichardZ

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 10:25 PM

I'd do the Mullins contract now before he returns to his pre-injury form. Try to buy low. Of the guys that are 1-2 years from FA, he's the one I want around the longest.
Would talk to Means as well, similar but low thinking. More risk with him than Ced, though.



Mullins was healthy and put up a .721 OPS in 2022. He was on a good roll before he got hurt last year. He’s good but I’d rather sit back and see what he does this year while seeing how Bradfield progresses.

#14 BaltBird 24

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 10:30 PM

Cedric was still a 3.3 OWAR player in 2022 even with his .721 OPS.

As you stated, he was on his way to a good offensive year in 2023 before the injuries. He was walking more than ever, ISO was back up.

I'd definitely try to extend Ced, though as 2035 pointed out, much of his defense relies on his speed and quickness. How well does that age? We know he has a total noodle for an arm.

#15 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 10:30 PM


Mullins was healthy and put up a .721 OPS in 2022. He was on a good roll before he got hurt last year. He’s good but I’d rather sit back and see what he does this year while seeing how Bradfield progresses.

Yeah not unrealistic to say Bradfield has a shot by '26. Obv we will see how things go offensively but as long as the scouting reports are right we know for sure hes got two above avg MLB caliber speed and D. He is going to be up at some point as a 4th OF minimum no matter how the bat turns out.

#16 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 05 February 2024 - 10:35 PM

Cedric was still a 3.3 OWAR player in 2022 even with his .721 OPS.

As you stated, he was on his way to a good offensive year in 2023 before the injuries. He was walking more than ever, ISO was back up.

I'd definitely try to extend Ced, though as 2035 pointed out, much of his defense relies on his speed and quickness. How well does that age? We know he has a total noodle for an arm.

Its really a fine line with Ced. If you could assure me his speed, jumps fielding would remain very good Id extend him today and deal with any offensive worries. But the ability to remain a good-great fielder concerns me too.

#17 bmore_ken

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Posted 06 February 2024 - 01:25 AM

Personally I'm not assuming any extensions, just more hopeful. 



#18 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 06 February 2024 - 06:01 AM

Mullins has had back to back years with the same OPS.

How much further can the ops drop, where the range is still valuable?

My guess is the existing contract and not beyond.
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#19 jamesdean

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Posted 06 February 2024 - 07:23 AM

Mullins just has to stay healthy and the rest will take care of itself.  He was banged up all last year and the offensive stats suffered. 



#20 Mackus

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Posted 06 February 2024 - 07:36 AM

Mullins has had back to back years with the same OPS.

How much further can the ops drop, where the range is still valuable?

My guess is the existing contract and not beyond.

 

If the OPS drops or the defense drops than any extension would be a bad deal. If both hold it'd be a good deal.  If defense holds and offense returns to upper 700s or low 800s that I think he's fully capable of, then its a great deal. That offensive resurgence is what I'm expecting, which reflects why I'd commit to him beyond his years of control.  I wouldn't throw a super long Nimmo-esque deal at him, but I'd like to lock in 2 FA years and might commit a 3rd to get to do so. Might not be possible at this point with him this close to free agency, but it is more likely to get him to agree now than it will be at midseason if he's having another strong start.  If we can get him for 2/$35M or so, I'm saying yes.  A third year at that rate would be a tougher choice, and I wouldn't consider committing longer.  It'd be taking on some risk, but I think the fungible enough to justify it.






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