92 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

I'm really interested in seeing what a Means extension might look like.  Jack Flaherty just got a 1/$14M contract, so you don't need to be very good to get big money.  How good would Means need to be in 2024 to beat, say, Seth Lugo's 3/$45M or Marcus Stroman's 2/$37M?  I'm not sure I'd commit to that right now, but I think there is a good chance he is worth it.  However he was injury prone even before missing two full years, so its a ton of risk and maybe you can get him for less because of that.  I don't know what I'd do here.

[RichardZ]

If the OPS drops or the defense drops than any extension would be a bad deal. If both hold it'd be a good deal. If defense holds and offense returns to upper 700s or low 800s that I think he's fully capable of, then its a great deal. That offensive resurgence is what I'm expecting, which reflects why I'd commit to him beyond his years of control. I wouldn't throw a super long Nimmo-esque deal at him, but I'd like to lock in 2 FA years and might commit a 3rd to get to do so. Might not be possible at this point with him this close to free agency, but it is more likely to get him to agree now than it will be at midseason if he's having another strong start. If we can get him for 2/$35M or so, I'm saying yes. A third year at that rate would be a tougher choice, and I wouldn't consider committing longer. It'd be taking on some risk, but I think the fungible enough to justify it.

If defense holds and OPS is 780-810 in 2026-2028 it’s a great deal. If he repeats the .721 OPS and defense holds it’s a good deal. What’s the deal? What’s the odds of the defense holding?

His sprint speed the last 6 years. 29.4, 29.1, 28.7, 28.5, 28.4, 28.0. Players slow down, get injured more, and take longer to heal as they get older. I hope his defense and offense hold for his age 29 and 30 seasons. You’re banking on 31-33.

By that time he’ll be a LF on this team anyway. Bradfield is 22 and he’s coming.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I'm really interested in seeing what a Means extension might look like. Jack Flaherty just got a 1/$14M contract, so you don't need to be very good to get big money. How good would Means need to be in 2024 to beat, say, Seth Lugo's 3/$45M or Marcus Stroman's 2/$37M? I'm not sure I'd commit to that right now, but I think there is a good chance he is worth it. However he was injury prone even before missing two full years, so its a ton of risk and maybe you can get him for less because of that. I don't know what I'd do here.

Got to see some more from Means. Didnt like that he was shut down again to end the year. I know they said arm fatigue isnt unusual for guys coming back from TJ. Lets see where we stand further into the season. I mean if hes completely killing it he prob just tests the waters but if hes just cruising along being a solid 3 or 4 then I think you prob can work something out in June or July if you want to do it. Still a bt concerned about his stuff anf how it will play over a full season. He knows how to pitch though so he will be an interesting watch

[BSLChrisStoner]

If the OPS drops or the defense drops than any extension would be a bad deal. If both hold it'd be a good deal. If defense holds and offense returns to upper 700s or low 800s that I think he's fully capable of, then its a great deal. That offensive resurgence is what I'm expecting, which reflects why I'd commit to him beyond his years of control. I wouldn't throw a super long Nimmo-esque deal at him, but I'd like to lock in 2 FA years and might commit a 3rd to get to do so. Might not be possible at this point with him this close to free agency, but it is more likely to get him to agree now than it will be at midseason if he's having another strong start. If we can get him for 2/$35M or so, I'm saying yes. A third year at that rate would be a tougher choice, and I wouldn't consider committing longer. It'd be taking on some risk, but I think the fungible enough to justify it.

Why are you expecting the offensive resurgence?

[Mackus]

Why are you expecting the offensive resurgence?

 

I'm not expecting 2021.  I am expecting the upper 700s that he was before the complete faceplant over the final 3 weeks.  And think the ~800 that he was at before that 2nd IL trip is more likely than him really falling off to barely 700.  I'd be willing to bet a contract that he matches his 750 career OPS over the next 4 years.  That 5th year is where I get nervous, but I'd do it to get years 3 & 4.  That said, I'd be a bit surprised if Cedric agreed to the biggest deal I'd consider offering.

[Slidemaster]

I wonder if Enrique Bradfield is looked at as being close enough by the time Ced's contract is up that they could either bring him up outright, or find a stopgap until he's here. He had a decent year last year in his first season of professional ball, and is a similar type of player.

Mullins will be 31 when his contract expires, and Center Fielders, like Shortstops, tend not to age well.

[RichardZ]

Considering that Cowser and Norby were drafted 2021 and 3 years later they look ready, why not Bradfield drafted in 2023 being ready by OD 2026. We’ll find out a lot about Bradfield this year. If he hits he’s on the fast track.

[Mackus]

Considering that Cowser and Norby were drafted 2021 and 3 years later they look ready, why not Bradfield drafted in 2023 being ready by OD 2026. We’ll find out a lot about Bradfield this year. If he hits he’s on the fast track.

 

Certainly possible. I'm guessing that Bradfield's bat will need more developing than either Cowser or Norby.  Much lower bar for him to reach because of the glove and speed, but still kind of skeptical he'll get there.  I certainly can imagine the team being more bullish on him than I am.

[RichardZ]

Certainly possible. I'm guessing that Bradfield's bat will need more developing than either Cowser or Norby.  Much lower bar for him to reach because of the glove and speed, but still kind of skeptical he'll get there.  I certainly can imagine the team being more bullish on him than I am.

After this year I might be less bullish on him or you might be more bullish. I don’t know what to expect but my hopes are high.

[BaltBird 24]

Feel like a guy who relies on his speed as his main offensive tool will probably need less development than guys like Cowser or Norby. Sounds like he already had a solid hit tool with extra base gap power coming out of college.

I guess it'd all depend if the O's try to tweak his mechanics to generate a little more power.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I guess it'd all depend if the O's try to tweak his mechanics to generate a little more power.

 

Apparently that's what messed him up in college, so I doubt they'll try to.

[RichardZ]

Apparently that's what messed him up in college, so I doubt they'll try to.

Disagree. This is the Orioles development forte. Developing an “A” swing, picking a good pitch, and putting the “A” swing on it. Law mentioned going for more power messed him up a bit. Perhaps they didn’t make the proper adjustments. Bradfield already has great contact skills and strike zone judgement. If he’s a slap hitter he’s Juan Pierre. Not bad but I think they want to shoot for Kenny Lofton level. If Bradfield can poke 10-12 homers and hit some gaps he only has to hit .260-.270 to be a star. He’ll walk 70-80 times a season and steal a ton of bases.

Look what they did with Joey Ortiz and Cowser. Look at the lack of power in their first summers, especially Ortiz. Bradfield is no weakling and he can easily put on some muscle without losing any speed.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

It was just one video in a cage but Phelan linked a clip a little while back and Bradfields setup was different. Didnt have his hands in the same weird spot. Again, just cages so who knows

[mikezpen]

There are only so many resources. It mite be nice to keep Mullins, Hays, Means, etc., but you can only extend so many. Anyhow, Hays and Mullins' bats are questionable and Means;' health is. Hundred million dollar contracts? Forget 'em. Forget sentiment.

 

Burnes? Maybe. But I aways worry about arms.

 

I'd do Adley now and Gunnar in fall if he has a good second full season. Next fall, maybe Holiday; That's your core you HAVE to extend. But those 3 alone mite cost $70-80 million/yr. You know? And you still have others coming you mite want to keep.Who knows what Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo,etc. mite do?

[Mackus]

I'd do Adley now and Gunnar in fall if he has a good second full season. Next fall, maybe Holiday; That's your core you HAVE to extend. But those 3 alone mite cost $70-80 million/yr. You know? And you still have others coming you mite want to keep.Who knows what Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo,etc. mite do?

 

I don't think you'll have the option to wait on any of these guys.  Frankly, I think we've already missed the boat with Adley and that Gunnar and Holliday aren't interested (as evidenced by their choice of agent).

[Slidemaster]

I don't think you'll have the option to wait on any of these guys. Frankly, I think we've already missed the boat with Adley and that Gunnar and Holliday aren't interested (as evidenced by their choice of agent).

While I think you are probably more correct than not, if you put a deal similar to what Witt got in front of any of those guys, I think they'd have a hard time not signing it.

[makoman]

There are only so many resources. It mite be nice to keep Mullins, Hays, Means, etc., but you can only extend so many. Anyhow, Hays and Mullins' bats are questionable and Means;' health is. Hundred million dollar contracts? Forget 'em. Forget sentiment.

 

Burnes? Maybe. But I aways worry about arms.

 

I'd do Adley now and Gunnar in fall if he has a good second full season. Next fall, maybe Holiday; That's your core you HAVE to extend. But those 3 alone mite cost $70-80 million/yr. You know? And you still have others coming you mite want to keep.Who knows what Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo,etc. mite do?

I don't agree that we need to wait another year to see if Gunnar is worth it. He is, and the longer you wait the higher the price gets unless there is a career altering injury. But I doubt there is a deal that both sides would agree to.

[dude]

While I think you are probably more correct than not, if you put a deal similar to what Witt got in front of any of those guys, I think they'd have a hard time not signing it.

 

When you say this, you have to tell me whether you are actually aligning it with Witt's deal.

 

Would Holliday sign that exact deal today? Absolutely.  That would guarantee him 288M and he'd have an opt out after (essentially) 7/150.  You'd carry absurd risk (250M) to get ONE year of FA  to let him start in the Majors this year...a year that you still get if he (very reasonably) spends a second year in development at AAA.

 

...but if you align that deal with Service, it'd be a 14/290 deal and he'd be giving up 3 FA years.  That's a risk/reward worth discussing if you're the Orioles, but he's not signing that.

 

I don't think Gunnar even signs Witt's deal even straight up.  Maybe there's something to discuss there, but it's still a ridiculous ask for getting 2 years.  They're a year off in Service so that 11/288 is a 12/290 for Gunnar and he'd be giving up another year of FA and he's not doing that, for sure.  Gunnar can be a FA in 5 years.  That's what he wants.

[dude]

I'm really interested in seeing what a Means extension might look like.  

 

I've been an advocate of extending Means.  I expect him to be good this year (although his 2024 salary agreement gives me some pause) and if the Orioles don't want to extend him, the market for him will be silly, but reasonable.  He won't be looking for Snell or Montgomery $$.  Getting something like 4/65-5/90 would seem ballpark (Mets, Phillies, ...).

 

My guess is you can buy out some of that if you're the Orioles because he may be willing to give a little more back to the Orioles given the last 2+ years.  So maybe you get something like a 2/30 done with 12.5M in each of the next 2 years and a 5M b/o out a 3/45 team option he can reject the b/o and become a FA.

 

...but you have to do something like that now while there's at least some uncertainty in 2024 performance.  If he's back to John Means, you may get something of a discount in FA, but less so than today.

[dude]

Been a bit of discussion about how the new ownership is likely to make extending players a more possible plan given that overall payroll is likely to go up. 

 

I said this elsewhere, but just because the Orioles' approach may change, doesn't mean Boras approach will change.

 

You have 4 Boras clients on your initial list.

 

Burnes.  He's going to want to break the pitching contract record.  Cole signed for 324M (10 years).  Yammamoto took 2 more years (12 years) to get the Dodgers to bite at 325M.  So start with Burnes at 330M.  Boras isn't giving you a number to negotiate off of.  You give him a number, THEN you start negotiating up because if he thinks you'll do 10/330, then he counters with 12/400.  If you think that's unreasonable...who said being reasonable has anything to do with this.

 

You have the same issue with Holliday and Henderson.  Boras is excited about the public pressure the Orioles have to put Jackson on the opening day roster.  That makes him a FA entering his age 26 season.  That's a 15 year contract and you can play the Ohtani-games with deferrals and get to 705M.  That seems absurd, but what makes anyone believe he's not trying to figure out how to be more absurd.  You have to do something stupid.  

 

Henderson is the same thing.  He's 5 years from FA.  Be an All-Star / MVP each year and be a FA entering your age 28 season.  (Gunnar has a June birthday, so he's one of those guys that will appear younger on BBREF that a guy with a July birthday)

 

GRod is 24 this season and has less than a year of service so he's already hitting FA entering his age 30 season. You have to do something like 10 years with opt outs but that's still all risk, no reward for the Team.

 

If you think any of these guys are different, you'd need to tell me why you think they are different.  You wanting them to be different isn't evidence. 

 

I allow myself to imagine the scenario where it is different without being absurdly dumb (you can tell me you'll offer something absurdly dumb, ok, but nobody is doing that).  May if you're extending the players that will extend and building something where these guys value a Championship opportunity (or something like that) and they maybe feel like they are getting left behind on some of the guaranteed money train, then maybe you get something like a year into FA that forces the run in Baltimore versus potentially getting traded out before FA....I build them, but they would still be the lowest probability.