41 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Steve likes to say "when he's ready"...how do we determine that? He has a handful of PAs at AAA....what makes him "ready" at 20? You're still growing (and learning the mechanics of a growing/changing frame) and part of that is your changing muscle structure.

We don't. Professional baseball coaches and scouts do. It should be much more nuanced than just an arbitrary number of PAs, IMO. You can qualify as ready without a lot of experience and performance, but it takes a lot of box checking on all the other things that we as fans have zero insight into.

I'm not particularly worried about the O's front office mishandling Holliday. But if there is any concern, I'd be a lot more concerned with them holding him back than them rushing him. If he makes the team, I'm confident we can agree that he's ready. But even that doesn't mean he'll excel right away.

[dude]

We don't. Professional baseball coaches and scouts do. It should be much more nuanced than just an arbitrary number of PAs, IMO. 

 

I really don't want to turn this into the same discussion as we've already done, but it's absolutely the core of this thread.

 

You prove what you can do (that you're 'ready') inside the crucible of competition.  I agree that the people that matter might be looking at and assessing things different than joe-public, but we all see the only crucible of performance that exists.  There's no competition we don't see.  You can't prove it in the weight room or in actions on the back field.  That stuff matters, but it's only in the pressure of actual competition that you merit all of the other work.  

 

500 PAs (for me) is the volume, more than SSS, that you need to perform under.  You can't have a hot month at AA and everyone declare you ready.  That's just not the way baseball has worked anywhere, ever.  Performance over that 500 PAs is an assessment period that 'the professionals' assess under and they may be looking at or considering more than just rate stats the public consumes.  That's fine and I agree with that, but you have to have some non-SSS period of performance under which to perform.

 

Zero idea why so many have a hard-on to see Holliday in the Majors.  There's zero expectation that he's some hammer at 20 years old with one season of professional experience under his belt.  Being able to stand out there doesn't mean he's performing meaningfully and there's absolutely a consequence.

 

Nobody is making the same argument for Coby Mayo. Or Norby. Or Hjerstad. Or Cowser. Or Stowers. Or really even Ortiz. 

For some reason, Holliday (at 20) is the only guy that has to make it now.

 

I'm not trading a developmental year for a more developed year and that has zero to do with Service manipulation.

[Mackus]

I really don't want to turn this into the same discussion as we've already done, but it's absolutely the core of this thread.

You prove what you can do (that you're 'ready') inside the crucible of competition. I agree that the people that matter might be looking at and assessing things different than joe-public, but we all see the only crucible of performance that exists. There's no competition we don't see. You can't prove it in the weight room or in actions on the back field. That stuff matters, but it's only in the pressure of actual competition that you merit all of the other work.

A player can show they are ready despite a limited amount of playing time at AA or AAA. That's exactly what scouts and minor league coaches are for. To predict if the glimpses you can see in a short sample are legit or if more time is needed for further evaluation and consistent demonstration of skills.

Nick Markakis had like 200 PA at AA then made the team and had a strong rookie year. Slow start, but adjusted very nicely. Happens plenty often enough for there to be a path for certain players without meeting some arbitrary threshold. Other guys need way more time. It's not black and white. The best evidence we have specifically for Holliday is how well he's done tearing through his previous stops to get to AAA. That's not enough to say definitively that he's ready, so it's up to the coaches and scouts to decide if he is good to go or needs more time.

[dude]

500 PAs IS A SMALL SAMPLE.

 

If you (the coaches) think a guy can handle his development in the Majors, I'm ok with that.  It's still a developmental year, you just think he can handle the development time reasonably in the Majors without negative consequences.

 

That's still a developmental year.  We don't know whether his readiness is at 40% or 80%.  Given we already know that the Orioles get nothing of consideration on the backend, you don't trade development years for better developed years.

 

The Team defines the start of the Service relationship, once you make the Majors, you hand all of the discretion to the Agent.

 

You can grow in the Majors with a .681 OPS (a developmental year) if you give me the year on the back.  You don't get to burn a more productive year later for something any league average cats can produce in 2024.

 

The notion that anyone thinks we should be relying on Jackson Holliday's performance in 2024 seems comical at best.

...and if anyone tells me they aren't relying on it, I'd ask why he's so important then.

[Mackus]

Every incremental improvement is important. Especially when they are free of cost for a team that otherwise won't spend any money because of mismanagement.

"Relying on" is a very antagonistic way of summarizing the argument. It's baseball. You don't rely on anyone. If Adley blows his knee out in April, we're still gonna fight and try to make the playoffs. But if you can improve at a position, it makes sense to do it. Holliday isn't the only possible infield solution for next year, but he is a possible infield solution. Some people view him as the preferred choice, which is fine.

[dude]

"Relying on" is a very antagonistic way of summarizing the argument. It's baseball. 

 

Nobody has a performance expectation they'd bet on in 2024.  If someone other than Chris wants to, let me know.

[Mackus]

I don't know what that means.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

We've done this several times in other places, but for me, it's not even a Service Time play.

 

Steve likes to say "when he's ready"...how do we determine that?  He has a handful of PAs at AAA....what makes him "ready" at 20?  You're still growing (and learning the mechanics of a growing/changing frame) and part of that is your changing muscle structure.

 

My rule is pretty simple.  Performance across 500 PAs between AA/AAA.  We aren't there.  It's not a Service move. They've pushed him fast which is cool, but if he's promoted to the Majors at any point this season, he'll be the fastest HSer to the Majors in recent memory.

 

There's no value in that for the Orioles.  There's lots of value for that for the player, and not matter how he does (if he struggles some or if he's great) he's already told you that you get no consideration long beyond Service Rules.

 

500 PAs takes him into the summer at some point.  2024 is absolutely a developmental year and maybe he's awesome, but that's the outlier case.  We don't know.  History of Baseball says Baseball is hard.  For humans.  He's human.

 

July promotion costs him RoY consideration and potential compensation for the Orioles.....so I'm not trading a month or 2 of ML time for those considerations.  You don't trades a developmental year (that's not Service manipulation) for a future developed year, especially for a cat that's going to prioritize something other than the Orioles 6 or 7 years from now.

 

So you build your 2024 plan to be competitive now and we'll see where Jackson is towards the end of this season and for 2025.

 

Depending on the pitcher

2B Westburg / [Frazier/Lux/Baumler]

SS Mateo / Henderson

3B Henderson / Westburg

 

Mateo is signed for 2.7M.  Figure out the LHed complement to him.

That is exactly what I dislike in baseball. Its archaic outdated thinking. These kids have been playing baseball, in many cases, almost 12 months a year for their whole lives. They are exposed to more and better baseball than kids even 10 years ago.

[dude]

That is exactly what I dislike in baseball. Its archaic outdated thinking. These kids have been playing baseball, in many cases, almost 12 months a year for their whole lives. They are exposed to more and better baseball than kids even 10 years ago.

 

Let's not do this now, but if we go a couple days and this thread bumps down the list, let's discuss it as much as you want.

 

For your preparation, I'm going to want the contextually informed supporting evidence for your opinion.  Good luck with that.

[Mike in STL]

The only acceptable response to any dude post

https://youtu.be/5hf...nrn-1TR5Ow7-B7d

[BobPhelan]

You saying he's not good enough to play SS now or he's just not better than Henderson now?

More the latter but I don’t it would be pretty out there in the majors right away. Range and arm are fine but timing and other nuances are lagging behind where his bat pushed him.

[RichardZ]

Henderson.

Dream infield by sometime 2025. 3B) Mayo, SS) Henderson, 2B) Holliday, 1B) Basallo

To start this year.

3B) Mayo, SS) Henderson, 2B) Westburg, 1B) Mountcastle

Ortiz either traded or takes over Urias role

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Henderson.

Dream infield by sometime 2025. 3B) Mayo, SS) Henderson, 2B) Holliday, 1B) Basallo

To start this year.

3B) Mayo, SS) Henderson, 2B) Westburg, 1B) Mountcastle

Ortiz either traded or takes over Urias role

My only thought on this is Ortiz. As I have said on this forum before I think Ortiz has too much value to be a bench role player. Trade that value to help us fill other holes. And in this scenario what are you doing with Westburg?

[BobPhelan]

Westburg can also fill in Urias’ role plus play some LF.

[RichardZ]

My only thought on this is Ortiz. As I have said on this forum before I think Ortiz has too much value to be a bench role player. Trade that value to help us fill other holes. And in this scenario what are you doing with Westburg?

Ortiz and Westburg can be traded or one kept as a super utility player. Perhaps either could be tried some in the outfield in addition to the infield.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Ortiz and Westburg can be traded or one kept as a super utility player. Perhaps either could be tried some in the outfield in addition to the infield.

Exactly. I just don't see how both can be on the 2024 roster when you consider what value they could bring in a trade.

[Mackus]

Exactly. I just don't see how both can be on the 2024 roster when you consider what value they could bring in a trade.

Can easily fit both to begin the year, then have to make a move later when Holliday is ready.

If you want Holliday on the opening day roster (or as close to it as to make no difference), then one should be on the move sooner.

[Mackus]

Think we need to find a trade partner for one of Urias or Mateo more urgently than Westburg or Ortiz. Of course those older guys barely have value (especially Mateo, who may be toxic at his salary) so you'd get a lot more for moving the younger guys.

[dude]

Think we need to find a trade partner for one of Urias or Mateo more urgently than Westburg or Ortiz. 

 

Urias:  There's one team that makes wild sense for Urias.  The Mets were 29th (.590) in 3B OPS last year, only the hapless As were worse.  Urias has a GG at 3B, can produce a .700 OPS and is available from a team that was doing some non-Talent things better than a talented Mets team was.  Ronny Mauricio just tore his achilles tendon in Winter ball.

 

I would add a lesser piece(s) to swap Urias for Mauricio.  I think Santander makes a ton of sense for the Mets also, so I'm willing to expand a deal to another level, but regardless of the return, Urias to the Mets.

[dude]

Of course those older guys barely have value (especially Mateo, who may be toxic at his salary) so you'd get a lot more for moving the younger guys.

 

I'm not in a trade Mateo camp.  Find the LHed compliment (still like Adam Frazier back) to mix with Henderson and Westburg and we're good for most of this season.

 

There's a couple teams in desperate need at SS.  There's places to move guys around, like the Dodgers and Indians....but the Marlins were 30th (.578) in OPS last year.  They want to compete and desperately need a SS upgrade.  The Giants are the other team that appears to want something at SS to slow play Luciano (SF was 27th in SS OPS).

 

There's 2 FA looking for fulltime gigs, Amed Rosario and Tim Anderson (yikes how far has that guy fallen).  CWS went simple with Dejong to bridge to their top SS prospect.  The Brewers, if they wanted to do something with Adames for pitching, don't want their trade options to get locked out.

 

We're about to hit 2024, ST reports in 6-7 weeks.  Teams need these dominoes to start falling.