51 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

I think the Ravens are one of four teams (SF, Philly, KC) that can win the SB.

I imagine some think Dallas, Miami, and maybe even Jacksonville can...  that's fine. 

 

12 games in the books, how many teams do you think are better than the Ravens?

 

For me, I think a healthy SF is the favorite. 

 

But the Ravens clearly are in a position for a deep run here, and it will be a real shame if they don't get to at-least the AFC Championship. 

 

Something of note...by the end of the season, they figure to have played the NFC North Winner, NFC West Winner, AFC East Winner, and AFC South Winner.

[SonicAttack]

KC is best until they get knocked out of the race; Philly is hella good.  

[BSLChrisStoner]

KC is best until they get knocked out of the race; Philly is hella good.  

KC still has Mahomes, and Reid...   figure to have homefield.... defense is strong, and the offensive numbers are better than you'd think.... but that's not some overwhelming Chiefs side. 

I'm fine with calling them the AFC favorite, and think that's probably deserved... but the Ravens roster matches up pretty favorably imo.

 

 

Philly keeps finding ways to win.  Credit them for that.  Hurts is the league MVP favorite on all the betting sites, despite people saying he hasn't played all that well (at-least compared to last year) this year.   They suffered at the start of the year with losing both Coordinators and adjusting to the changes there.  Their Defensive Front is very strong, and a problem.  You can throw on their Secondary. They know how to win, they expect to win.    

 

I don't think Philly beats SF in the NFC Championship game last year if the Niners were healthy, and don't think they are better than SF now. 

Given the Eagles schedule, there is a non-zero chance Dallas catches them in the East.... but I think Philly holds on there.
They are certainly going to be a very tough out.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

They are the best team in football in so many ways. Theyve dominated in so many aspects of all the games theyve played. Theyve barely trailed at all. I think its a crazy low amount of time theyve trailed all year. But they are the antithesis of Philly who looks pretty bad for long stretches but just finds a way. Always find a way when they have to have it. Baltimore finds way to shoot themselves in the foot consistently. Brutal watching them win a turnover battle at +4 last night and have to sweat out that win that hard.


They have a chance to win the SB this year because of the talent. The D is champ caliber. The O is good enough too. We all expect the self inflicted issues to down them before they get there though. I dont believe anyone who says differently.

[You Play to Win the Game]

^Sadly, I have to agree with all of that. Well said.

[You Play to Win the Game]

KC is the nightmare playoff matchup, particularly if it’s at Arrowhead. Their D will shut us down, and Mahomes will likely be able to do enough.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

KC is the nightmare playoff matchup, particularly if it’s at Arrowhead. Their D will shut us down, and Mahomes will likely be able to do enough.

Thats the most likely outcome IMO. Something thats under 40.5 points. 23-17. 20-13. 17-13.


Baltimore makes everything too hard on themselves to think they can both manage the game and play clean for 3 or 4 in a row.

[BSLChrisStoner]

They are the best team in football in so many ways. Theyve dominated in so many aspects of all the games theyve played. Theyve barely trailed at all. I think its a crazy low amount of time theyve trailed all year. But they are the antithesis of Philly who looks pretty bad for long stretches but just finds a way. Always find a way when they have to have it. Baltimore finds way to shoot themselves in the foot consistently. Brutal watching them win a turnover battle at +4 last night and have to sweat out that win that hard.


They have a chance to win the SB this year because of the talent. The D is champ caliber. The O is good enough too. We all expect the self inflicted issues to down them before they get there though. I dont believe anyone who says differently.

 

I'm with you on the first paragraph, and not with the second. 

 

They have shot themselves in the foot. 
And yes, the best indicator of future behavior is past behavior.... but I'm not with you expecting self inflicted errors to doom them. 
It might. 
They also might correct that. 

 

Previous Ravens SB teams were tough to watch at times as well. 

[Biggsy]

KC is the nightmare playoff matchup, particularly if it’s at Arrowhead. Their D will shut us down, and Mahomes will likely be able to do enough.

I actually think Miami is the nightmare match up.

KC has a far superior defense to Miami. But their offense doesn't strike fear anymore. As good as Mahomes is, they lack that quick strike ability they had in the past. I agree it would be a tough match up. But I have more faith in our offense getting hot and catching KC's defense off-guard vs the opposite.

Miami on the other hand. That offense can put up 21+ in a hurry. If our offense gives the ball up, it's more likely they make you pay. No matter how good your defense is, Tyreek Hill, Waddle, Mostert or Achane can still beat you. One mistake and they got 6.

I think Miami is more volatile. Whereas KC is a lot more consistent. I agree with both of you that KC would certainly be a lower scoring affair, similar to last night. And any close game is scary when Mahomes is on the other side.


End of the day, if Monken can read a game, and stick to a running game when it's dominating, this team can make a lot of noise. Position for position, on paper, not many teams can match up with the Ravens.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Tua can be rattled. Mahomes rarely takes sacks. KCs offense is 5th in DVOA so the continued narrative that their offense isnt a threat or doesnt strike fear doesnt hold up. Patrick Mahomes strikes fear. Miami also hasnt beaten anyone in so damn long. They beat up on bad teams and lose to good ones. Rinse and repeat

[makoman]

Tua can be rattled. Mahomes rarely takes sacks. KCs offense is 5th in DVOA so the continued narrative that their offense isnt a threat or doesnt strike fear doesnt hold up. Patrick Mahomes strikes fear. Miami also hasnt beaten anyone in so damn long. They beat up on bad teams and lose to good ones. Rinse and repeat

I agree with this. 5 straight AFCCG. The best player in the game today. And now they have a defense. If KC had typical weapons they'd be undefeated heavy favorites, as is they're hoping Mahomes and Kelce is enough, and they may be.

 

Miami has impressive individual players and has destroyed bad teams. The Chiefs, Eagles, and Bills held them to 20 or less and we are on that level or better as a defense. I suppose we will find out more next month, but as of today I am happy to play them in January, especially if they have to leave Florida.

 

The Chiefs and SF are the only teams I fear at the moment. I am really hoping the OL, mostly Stanley, gets healthy and better by the SF game. That will show us where we are. The Eagles are good obviously, but if we play to our capabilities we should slow their offense down more than they can slow ours. Not beating ourselves will obviously be important and is a wild card.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I agree with this. 5 straight AFCCG. The best player in the game today. And now they have a defense. If KC had typical weapons they'd be undefeated heavy favorites, as is they're hoping Mahomes and Kelce is enough, and they may be.

Miami has impressive individual players and has destroyed bad teams. The Chiefs, Eagles, and Bills held them to 20 or less and we are on that level or better as a defense. I suppose we will find out more next month, but as of today I am happy to play them in January, especially if they have to leave Florida.

The Chiefs and SF are the only teams I fear at the moment. I am really hoping the OL, mostly Stanley, gets healthy and better by the SF game. That will show us where we are. The Eagles are good obviously, but if we play to our capabilities we should slow their offense down more than they can slow ours. Not beating ourselves will obviously be important and is a wild card.

I think the KC stuff is a way to kind of fool yourself. I get wanting to do that even if its subconscious. They are pretty strong favs to win the conference in Vegas and I think once they secure homefield, which is likely, its only gonna lower those odds. I think they are as strong a fav to win the conference as theyve been in previous years. Maybe moreso. I dont know that Miami, Jac, and Balt pose the threat that Buf or Cincy did the last few years. Baltimore might be close and thats where my bias comes in because Im probably overly critical of our team.

[Biggsy]

Tua can be rattled. Mahomes rarely takes sacks. KCs offense is 5th in DVOA so the continued narrative that their offense isnt a threat or doesnt strike fear doesnt hold up. Patrick Mahomes strikes fear. Miami also hasnt beaten anyone in so damn long. They beat up on bad teams and lose to good ones. Rinse and repeat

All valid points. Mahomes is Mahomes. He's something I'm not sure we've ever seen at QB. As long as he's the QB, KC is a huge threat.

I don't disagree with Miami being beatable. I think KC is the better team. I just hate the Miami match up. In a one off, I'll take my chances against Pacheco, Rice, Moore and Kelce, if the other option is Mostert, Achane, Hill and Waddle. In a series, I take Miami 10/10 times over KC. In a one of, winner take all, Miami is a little more scary to face. If Tua and Hill are locked in, you're not stopping them.

[Ravens2006]

Hill has to be jammed at the line on every snap and a deep safety should never come within 15 yards of the LOS pre-snap. Take multiple illegal contacts and holdings, just don't let him get deep and behind everyone. 2 deep on every snap would be fine too.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Yeah I wouldn’t want Miami either. I just wouldn’t envision us having much success against the KC D. I’m annoyed at how good it is btw. It’s obnoxious. They have Mahomes. Having a top D is just unfair.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah I wouldn’t want Miami either. I just wouldn’t envision us having much success against the KC D. I’m annoyed at how good it is btw. It’s obnoxious. They have Mahomes. Having a top D is just unfair.

Yup. Complete team. Patty can pick up the D if necessary or the D can pick up the O if necessary. Sucks when teams are well rounded. And I do get that the KC offense isnt as scary as theyve been in the past but that doesnt really matter with Mahomes. He can turn water into wine sometimes.


I wish I had the confidence in our O to be able to pick up our D if necessary but I dont.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Btw Buf can still win it all if they get in.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Btw Buf can still win it all if they get in.

I think that's valid because Allen is capable of a hot run. But their overall weapons aren't great, and if they lose to KC this weekend they are under .500. Also had two real substantial losses on the defensive side.

[CantonJester]

If Mahomes had legit WR he'd be unbeatable. He doesn't have legit WR. They're beatable.

 

The Ravens are 50/50 to reach the SB. No clue how to map the SF / BAL matchup.

[Ravens2006]

...Previous Ravens SB teams were tough to watch at times as well. 

 

I remember the game threads and week-aftermath of the Ravens clunker at home against Denver in 2012. Flacco was never going to get it done. The team was done. Blow it up. You name it, folks said it. With absolute conviction.

 

The AFC is pretty wide open this year for at least 4 teams I think, and it's going to be mostly who gets the hottest and maybe a lucky break or two.  And which coaches don't make big mistakes.   Baltimore, KC, Buffalo, Miami, maybe Jacksonville.  If Burrow hadn't gotten hurt, Cincy would have been in that mix too.  Home field will be important I think, moreso than it's been in recent years.  Don't ask me for detailed reasons, just a gut feeling.

 

Chiefs are giving up 4.6 yards per carry right now on defense.  Bills are allowing 4.7 yards per carry on defense.  Those are 4th and 5th worst averages in the NFL right now.  You have to go in to those games leaning heavy on the run and stick with it throughout, even if you fall behind a score early.