1691 replies to this topic

[jamesdean]

What I'm saying is they need a plan for the inevitable.

I've even heard one doctor say that they probably should just go ahead and get Tommy John surgery before starting their major league career.  It's that inevitable.  And if they need the procedure again, their chances of coming back and pitching well is about 30%.  Until MLB faces the music and says what the real reason is, fans will just have to get used to having a great pitcher available for a couple of years at the most.  But enough of this "the time clock is the reason" bullshit.  

[Mackus]

I've even heard one doctor say that they probably should just go ahead and get Tommy John surgery before starting their major league career. 

 

Please ignore the hell out of that idiot doctor.

[BaltBird 24]

What I'm saying is they need a plan for the inevitable.

Literally every team has to plan for the inevitable.

The Orioles will soon have Burnes, Rodriguez, Kremer, Bradish, Means, Irvin, Suarez, even Tyler Wells all on the ML roster who can start games. Povich and McDermott in AAA.

The quality might drop significantly after the top guys, but almost no one is going to replace their top 1 or 2 SP with some kid from AAA if they get hurt.

[Slidemaster]

I've even heard one doctor say that they probably should just go ahead and get Tommy John surgery before starting their major league career. It's that inevitable. And if they need the procedure again, their chances of coming back and pitching well is about 30%. Until MLB faces the music and says what the real reason is, fans will just have to get used to having a great pitcher available for a couple of years at the most. But enough of this "the time clock is the reason" bullshit.

I don't even blame MLB. Hitters keep getting better and pitchers keep trying to stay a step ahead. I don't know one pitcher who wouldn't risk needing Tommy John for a chance to pitch in the big leagues.

Eventually I hope things swing back in the direction of movement and control over pure velocity, but maybe that ship has sailed.

[BaltBird 24]

How would MLB even fix an issue like arm injuries? You can't force a guy to not go max effort. Would increasing the number of pitchers per roster to allow more rest days solve the problem? Probably not.

[Slidemaster]

How would MLB even fix an issue like arm injuries? You can't force a guy to not go max effort. Would increasing the number of pitchers per roster to allow more rest days solve the problem? Probably not.

I think it's compounded by pitchers now pitching year round in high school and college. Ligaments need rest.

The only way to fix it would be some kind of mandate on how pitchers are used, and I don't think that's happening.

[jamesdean]

I don't even blame MLB. Hitters keep getting better and pitchers keep trying to stay a step ahead. I don't know one pitcher who wouldn't risk needing Tommy John for a chance to pitch in the big leagues.

Eventually I hope things swing back in the direction fo movement and control over pure velocity, but maybe that ship has sailed.

I still think there's a chance of the approach of pitching going back to less velocity.  Baseball, if nothing else, is cyclic.  I look at the box scores every morning and I do see a slight drop in strikeouts so far.  Batting averages are a bit higher too.  I always said that once hitters would lose that "I have to hit the ball 500 ft." mentality and concentrate on making contact, the strikeouts would start to come down.  Maybe there's more balls being put in play so far this year.  Who knows.  

[jamesdean]

I think it's compounded by pitchers now pitching year round in high school and college. Ligaments need rest.

The only way to fix it would be some kind of mandate on how pitchers are used, and I don't think that's happening.

Yeah, that's a huge issue.  But velocity is the current driver on whether a kid gets any scouts to sniff his way.  Or colleges to offer scholarships.  That's definitely the root of the problem. 

[BaltBird 24]

I'd say batting averages are higher due to no longer being able to shift, as opposed to anything else.

Strikeouts probably haven't dropped much in the past few years, if at all.

[jamesdean]

I'd say batting averages are higher due to no longer being able to shift, as opposed to anything else.
Strikeouts probably haven't dropped much in the past few years, if at all.

They do seem down a bit so far but maybe its just wishful thinking on my part.

[Mackus]

I'd say batting averages are higher due to no longer being able to shift, as opposed to anything else.

Strikeouts probably haven't dropped much in the past few years, if at all.

 

Batting averages are not higher.  241 so far this year compared to 243, 248, 245, and 244 working back.

 

Strikeouts are same as last year, slightly down from peaks a couple years prior.  22.5%, 22.4%, 22.7%, 23.4%, 23.2%.

 

BABIP about the same recently, so shift ban hasn't changed things all that much.  291, 290, 297, 292, 292 the last 5.  This is for the whole league though, should probably look at R/L splits to get a better idea, especially the LH who were the main "victims" of the shift.

 

Total balls in play are up slightly.  Combined HR + BB + K% (i.e. balls not in play) is 33.9% this year, compared to 34.5%, 33.4%, 35.1%, and 36.1% going back.  I don't think any fans can tell the difference between games where 64% of PAs have a ball in play compared to 66% though, so its probably not noticeable.

[BobPhelan]

Nah I trust the guy who looked at a few box scores.

[hallas]

I don't know what the answer for Grayson is. He doesn't really even look like he's throwing as hard as he can. Are you going to ask him to detune his mechanics to reduce velo? He was throwing a little softer when he sucked in the beginning of 2023, and his command was everywhere. So it's risky.

With the high effort guys the answer seems a little more straightforward; get them to throw 95% effort at a couple mph slower in an effort to reduce strain. But when you already have a guy that throws 99 and looks like he's chillin' while doing so, that can't be the answer.

[Mackus]

Aaron Hicks, anyone? DFA today. Had the exact opposite answer a calendar year ago, but think I prefer him to McKenna at this point. Especially with Cowser and Mateo available for CF innings when needed.

Wish one of these outfield prospects hit righty...

[CantonJester]

Aaron Hicks, anyone? DFA today. Had the exact opposite answer a calendar year ago, but think I prefer him to McKenna at this point. Especially with Cowser and Mateo available for CF innings when needed.

Wish one of these outfield prospects hit righty...

 

I expect them to take him back. Fan fave, works counts, still a switch hitter. 

 

23 Ks in 63 PAs is tough though. I doubt he's gassed. His short game is probably all out of whack and it's distracting him. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yes on Hicks. Its essentially him over McKenna for now. Last I looked he was still doing alright vs LHP this year

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Hicks is a good bench bat to counter off of OHearn. Wedont really have a RH hitter where you send him up to hit. Mateo to run sure. McKenna for D I guess. Neither are like lefty killers

[BSLMikeLowe]

Aaron Hicks, anyone?

 

Yes please. Get on the phone now and see if LAA will take cash considerations for him so he could be there to face Rodon on Thursday. I'm sure he's still pretty motivated to stick it to the Yankees.

[BaltBird 24]

He's only got a .610 OPS in 16 ABs VS LHP, but a HR. He did have a .970 OPS VS LHP just a year ago, though it's possible at 34 that he fell completely off a cliff.

Still worth the gamble over McKenna.

[CantonJester]

He's only got a .610 OPS in 16 ABs VS LHP, but a HR. He did have a .970 OPS VS LHP just a year ago, though it's possible at 34 that he fell completely off a cliff.

Still worth the gamble over McKenna.

 

McKenna's out of options, so if they move him off the 40, he's gone (or not). 

 

Still, I like it. Stowers is still around if that doesn't work out.