361 replies to this topic

[You Play to Win the Game]

There we go. Let’s keep these good vibez going. They deserve that. They really do.

[85Knight]

The O's lost the first 2 games of a series 9 times this season. They were 9-0 in game 3 of those series. They've been a relaxed team on the road all season.

Just be the resilient team that we've been all season and get the win tonight. Eovaldi's hittable. Put Gunner in the leadoff spot and stack the lefties at the top. We can do this.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Coming back after losing the first two has happened 10 times in a 5 game series. Both LDS and when 5 games was the LCS. What IM curious about is how many times the home team lost the first 2 and game back and won the series.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Looks like the  2015 Blue Jays, 2001 Yankees, and 2012 Giants are the teams that lost the first two at home and came back and won the series. 

 

2012 Giants and 1981 Dodgers are the 2 teams to come back from 0-2 in a DS series and win the World Series

[Don Quixote]

Coming back after losing the first two has happened 10 times in a 5 game series. Both LDS and when 5 games was the LCS. What IM curious about is how many times the home team lost the first 2 and game back and won the series.

 

 

Looks like the  2015 Blue Jays, 2001 Yankees, and 2012 Giants are the teams that lost the first two at home and came back and won the series. 

 

2012 Giants and 1981 Dodgers are the 2 teams to come back from 0-2 in a DS series and win the World Series

 

Having to face one of those managers just puts an extra-nice wrinkle in, doesn't it?

[Don Quixote]

One of my hopes is that they get Eovaldi unsettled early. His return hasn't been all sunshine and roses, so if they can make his start against the Rays look like a one-off, great. He can easily drop another stinker, so don't let him build confidence. The key is to be judiciously aggressive, avoid the pop-ups and double-play balls, and get in the 'pen. We all know that.

 

The pitchers need to stay calm, pound the zone more (w/o meatballs), and let the guys behind them take care of things as best they can. Trying to be too cute isn't gonna work; make them beat your best with their best. The Rangers lineup is at least as annoying as so many Yankees and Red Sox teams over the years with taking a friggin' zillion pitches. Not going to get many gifts from the umps, either, especially as the road club.

[jamesdean]

I don't know how applicable it is but don't forget that the 2004 Red Sox were down 3-0 to the Yankees in the playoffs and promptly won 4 straight. It's not likely the Orioles win the next 3 against a surging team but it's not impossible either. 

[PrimeTime]

From Steve Melewski, "O's face a pitcher in Eovaldi tonight with reverse splits - a .579 OPS vs. LHB but .762 vs RHB. Despite that, based on his comments yesterday, expecting BHyde to start both Mullins and O'Hearn. But the numbers could impact other decisions, like does Frazier start?"

I know the guys like Hyde and he seems like a good dude but I'm convinced that he never bothers looking at a stat sheet. Or it sure as hell seems that way. If we ignore extreme splits like this in a do or die game, it's Buck Britton season for me.

[mweb08]

From Steve Melewski, "O's face a pitcher in Eovaldi tonight with reverse splits - a .579 OPS vs. LHB but .762 vs RHB. Despite that, based on his comments yesterday, expecting BHyde to start both Mullins and O'Hearn. But the numbers could impact other decisions, like does Frazier start?"

I know the guys like Hyde and he seems like a good dude but I'm convinced that he never bothers looking at a stat sheet. Or it sure as hell seems that way. If we ignore extreme splits like this in a do or die game, it's Buck Britton season for me.

He absolutely looks at a bunch of stats, which are provided to him, and then there is a collective organizational decision making process on player usage.

[makoman]

He absolutely looks at a bunch of stats, which are provided to him, and then there is a collective organizational decision making process on player usage.

I am fairly sure I remember lineups specifically accounting for a pitcher's reverse splits. I'm thinking Michael Wacha. I agree that Elias and probably more will have heavy input on the lineup.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

You also look at how a batter has done against a certain pitcher. Here's some numbers of guys who could start or not tonight: Avg/OPS

 

Mullins - .267/.633

Hicks - .174/.382

Frazier - .333/1.667  only 3 at bats

Westburg - None at bats

Urias - .125/,625

Mateo - .500/1.000 only 2 at bats

Mountcastle - .333/.733

O'Hearn - 0 for 4

Hays - .320/.720

Santander - .190/.476

[PrimeTime]

He absolutely looks at a bunch of stats, which are provided to him, and then there is a collective organizational decision making process on player usage.

I was being somewhat glib but it certainly seems as if he makes a conscious effort to ignore those stats when making out a lineup.

I would love some evidence that suggests your assertion is the case. I can find evidence to the contrary throughout the season.

Key matchups that could be exploited are often ignored and the biggest motivating factor seems to be getting as many hitters in the lineup as possible that bat from the side of the plate to the opposite of the arm from which the pitcher throws. This very tendency was exploited by Bochy in game 1 and then further exacerbated when Bochy went to the pen for a righty and Hyde brought in Frazier to pinch hit in the 4th.

With all of this said, we probably hang a 10 spot tonight.

[Nigel Tufnel]

From Steve Melewski, "O's face a pitcher in Eovaldi tonight with reverse splits - a .579 OPS vs. LHB but .762 vs RHB. Despite that, based on his comments yesterday, expecting BHyde to start both Mullins and O'Hearn. But the numbers could impact other decisions, like does Frazier start?"

I know the guys like Hyde and he seems like a good dude but I'm convinced that he never bothers looking at a stat sheet. Or it sure as hell seems that way. If we ignore extreme splits like this in a do or die game, it's Buck Britton season for me.

 

Matt Kremnitzer@mattkremnitzer·

 

I keep seeing people refer to Eovaldi as a reverse-splits guy. Does... anyone put much value in a single year of splits?

 

2023:

vs. RH: .331 wOBA

vs. LH: .254 wOBA

 

Career:

vs. RH: .310 wOBA

vs. LH: .324 wOBA

[mweb08]

I was being somewhat glib but it certainly seems as if he makes a conscious effort to ignore those stats when making out a lineup.

I would love some evidence that suggests your assertion is the case. I can find evidence to the contrary throughout the season.

Key matchups that could be exploited are often ignored and the biggest motivating factor seems to be getting as many hitters in the lineup as possible that bat from the side of the plate to the opposite of the arm from which the pitcher throws. This very tendency was exploited by Bochy in game 1 and then further exacerbated when Bochy went to the pen for a righty and Hyde brought in Frazier to pinch hit in the 4th.

With all of this said, we probably hang a 10 spot tonight.

What I said has been reported and posted on here. Please forgive me if the details don't exactly align with what I said if someone finds it, but that was the gist of it as I recall.

[PrimeTime]

What I said has been reported and posted on here. Please forgive me if the details don't exactly align with what I said if someone finds it, but that was the gist of it as I recall.

One would think that what you're saying is how any major league club would operate. However, I see a lineup like tonight's, in a must win, season on the line, game and it appears we're putting our worst foot forward. It just doesn't add up.

[PrimeTime]

Matt Kremnitzer@mattkremnitzer·










I keep seeing people refer to Eovaldi as a reverse-splits guy. Does... anyone put much value in a single year of splits?

2023:
vs. RH: .331 wOBA
vs. LH: .254 wOBA

Career:
vs. RH: .310 wOBA
vs. LH: .324 wOBA

I'll hear the small sample size argument but it could also be a trend. Perhaps Eovaldi's stuff is playing differently, resulting in righties seeing it better.

Mateo has been bad vs righties but he was 4-4 on Sunday, has 1 hit in 2 ABs vs Eovaldi and hits well in Texas. I need a win, I'm going with whatever advantage I can find.

[JoyinMudville]

The O's lost the first 2 games of a series 9 times this season. They were 9-0 in game 3 of those series. They've been a relaxed team on the road all season.

Just be the resilient team that we've been all season and get the win tonight. Eovaldi's hittable. Put Gunner in the leadoff spot and stack the lefties at the top. We can do this.

 

well put, Gunnar's batting leadoff

[JoyinMudville]

Looks like the  2015 Blue Jays, 2001 Yankees, and 2012 Giants are the teams that lost the first two at home and came back and won the series. 

 

2012 Giants and 1981 Dodgers are the 2 teams to come back from 0-2 in a DS series and win the World Series

 

That Yankees/A's series was fantastic

[Mackus]

I'll hear the small sample size argument but it could also be a trend. Perhaps Eovaldi's stuff is playing differently, resulting in righties seeing it better.

Mateo has been bad vs righties but he was 4-4 on Sunday, has 1 hit in 2 ABs vs Eovaldi and hits well in Texas. I need a win, I'm going with whatever advantage I can find.

If you need a win, and are looking for an advantage, that means you bench Mateo. He's rarely an advantage. I trust every other position player more than him. He's a pinch runner and defensive replacement, especially against RHP, so use him that way. I think it'd be a real bad idea to get too carried away after his best game since April.

[russsnyder]

I do like Gunnar leading off

That's all that I'll say.